NBA Season Suspended/COVID-19; 3/31 - All Lakers cleared and symptom free (**No politics or racial/ethnic remarks or personal insults**)
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carlosLisboa
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:29 am    Post subject:

From Madeira Island, PORTUGAL, here (homeland of Ronaldo, the soccer star).

- State of Emergency approved
- Everyone at home.
- Flights shut down.
- Forbidden to walk in the street unless permitted for work reasons, going for authorized shopping (food, medicine), going home, or getting health services
- All public gatherings prohibited (which means sports, theatre, of course)
- Restaurants: take away only (this is not popular in PT as it is in the US)

Only 33 dead in the country so far, but we are still riding on top of the wave.
The US has 30x our population. Almost all were gone last week. This is equivalent to 1000 people at US level.

Please all be safe.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:57 am    Post subject:

cal1piggy wrote:
kikanga wrote:
cal1piggy wrote:
there are wide areas of the country outside the top 20 metro areas where counts are very low. and 2 incubation periods is very significant. china only quarantined for 5 weeks though with a quarantine that we simply cannot emulate.


Just quoting this part of your post because the Trump stuff is what it is.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the two week incubation period is based on the appearance of symptoms right? But a significant portion of those with the virus don't have symptoms but can still pass it to others. Couple that with the limited testing. I think it's safe to say the virus has spread outside of the top 20 metro areas to a greater degree than those populations realize.

That's the thing with suppression. It works, the death counts are minimized. So people take it for granted.



incubation period is 14 days. there are some asymptomatic cases. but there are asymptomatic cases everywhere.

in vast parts of the country, the case counts are very low. much lower than south korea when south korea went into quarantine etc. these areas went into social distancing at the same time as the hot spots in the metro areas. after 2 full incubation periods, those areas should be very very low. there will be exceptions, sure, but contact tracing should be able to manage those areas. of course, there will be exceptions due to incompetency. but i dont think the country can operate in a way that every area will be 100% safe. it will go broke long before that happens.

now the areas that need focus are the major metro areas. after 2 full incubation periods of social distancing, i highly doubt they will be fully controlled. especially nyc. and sf/la/seattle are in there also. what is troubling is cities like boston, philadephia, new orleans are starting to catch up to sf/la/seattle. in particular, new orleans sounds like it will be a big mess and someone posted that atlanta already out of icu beds.


You're quoting numbers from the rural areas but you're leaving out very important details and differences.

1) Rural areas have much less dense populations. Social distancing is kinda built in.

2) Rural areas receive much lower number of TESTS, which would skew the number of CONFIRMED CASES.

3) Rural Areas have much lower quality of healthcare and much less access to quarantine level facilities, for the most part.

4) Rural Communities often are stoic and will suffer and die rather than report symptoms or go to the Dr.

5) Deaths in small towns are much less likely to be investigated for connection to COVID-19 because the small number of tests they have will be saved for the LIVING, not "wasted" on the deceased.


I'm from a very small town that looks like those rural areas and I grew up on a farm...

So you're quoting those numbers as if they are apples to apples, which they aren't. The % numbers in small towns and rural areas would likely end up at or near the ones in large cities IF small towns received the test kits they needed AND if POLITICS didn't get in the way...
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:00 am    Post subject:

carlosLisboa wrote:
From Madeira Island, PORTUGAL, here (homeland of Ronaldo, the soccer star).

- State of Emergency approved
- Everyone at home.
- Flights shut down.
- Forbidden to walk in the street unless permitted for work reasons, going for authorized shopping (food, medicine), going home, or getting health services
- All public gatherings prohibited (which means sports, theatre, of course)
- Restaurants: take away only (this is not popular in PT as it is in the US)

Only 33 dead in the country so far, but we are still riding on top of the wave.
The US has 30x our population. Almost all were gone last week. This is equivalent to 1000 people at US level.

Please all be safe.



stay safe
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GameCock-MD
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:10 am    Post subject:

Just remember these things:



1) COVID-19 can live in the air for hours after an infected person leaves a room.

2) COVID-19 can live on surfaces for days after an infected person has touched or coughed on it.

3) Asymptomatic people can still spread COVID-19 by cough, touch, kiss or even breathing on or near you.

4) Smokers have a much worse prognosis, regardless of age.

5) COVID-19 is a VIRUS, which means mutation is exponentially more LIKELY with increased number of confirmed cases, meaning 2nd, 3rd and 4th waves of the pandemic if we do NOT increase testing and isolation 1000-fold in the next week (IMHO).


Use aloe and alcohol to make your own hand sanitizer if you can't find it. If worse comes to worse, a small amount of bleach then wash hands with soap.

Be safe...it will take all of us to win this. If even 1 infected/exposed person ignores the potential of COVID-19, he can start the cycle all over again.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:43 am    Post subject:

GameCock-MD wrote:
Just remember these things:



1) COVID-19 can live in the air for hours after an infected person leaves a room.

2) COVID-19 can live on surfaces for days after an infected person has touched or coughed on it.

3) Asymptomatic people can still spread COVID-19 by cough, touch, kiss or even breathing on or near you.

4) Smokers have a much worse prognosis, regardless of age.

5) COVID-19 is a VIRUS, which means mutation is exponentially more LIKELY with increased number of confirmed cases, meaning 2nd, 3rd and 4th waves of the pandemic if we do NOT increase testing and isolation 1000-fold in the next week (IMHO).


Use aloe and alcohol to make your own hand sanitizer if you can't find it. If worse comes to worse, a small amount of bleach then wash hands with soap.

Be safe...it will take all of us to win this. If even 1 infected/exposed person ignores the potential of COVID-19, he can start the cycle all over again.



Great post and thanks for sharing. Hopefully you keep on posting with updates you are seeing. God Bless and stay safe!
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cal1piggy
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:37 am    Post subject:

GameCock-MD wrote:
cal1piggy wrote:
kikanga wrote:
cal1piggy wrote:
there are wide areas of the country outside the top 20 metro areas where counts are very low. and 2 incubation periods is very significant. china only quarantined for 5 weeks though with a quarantine that we simply cannot emulate.


Just quoting this part of your post because the Trump stuff is what it is.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the two week incubation period is based on the appearance of symptoms right? But a significant portion of those with the virus don't have symptoms but can still pass it to others. Couple that with the limited testing. I think it's safe to say the virus has spread outside of the top 20 metro areas to a greater degree than those populations realize.

That's the thing with suppression. It works, the death counts are minimized. So people take it for granted.



incubation period is 14 days. there are some asymptomatic cases. but there are asymptomatic cases everywhere.

in vast parts of the country, the case counts are very low. much lower than south korea when south korea went into quarantine etc. these areas went into social distancing at the same time as the hot spots in the metro areas. after 2 full incubation periods, those areas should be very very low. there will be exceptions, sure, but contact tracing should be able to manage those areas. of course, there will be exceptions due to incompetency. but i dont think the country can operate in a way that every area will be 100% safe. it will go broke long before that happens.

now the areas that need focus are the major metro areas. after 2 full incubation periods of social distancing, i highly doubt they will be fully controlled. especially nyc. and sf/la/seattle are in there also. what is troubling is cities like boston, philadephia, new orleans are starting to catch up to sf/la/seattle. in particular, new orleans sounds like it will be a big mess and someone posted that atlanta already out of icu beds.


You're quoting numbers from the rural areas but you're leaving out very important details and differences.

1) Rural areas have much less dense populations. Social distancing is kinda built in.

2) Rural areas receive much lower number of TESTS, which would skew the number of CONFIRMED CASES.

3) Rural Areas have much lower quality of healthcare and much less access to quarantine level facilities, for the most part.

4) Rural Communities often are stoic and will suffer and die rather than report symptoms or go to the Dr.

5) Deaths in small towns are much less likely to be investigated for connection to COVID-19 because the small number of tests they have will be saved for the LIVING, not "wasted" on the deceased.


I'm from a very small town that looks like those rural areas and I grew up on a farm...

So you're quoting those numbers as if they are apples to apples, which they aren't. The % numbers in small towns and rural areas would likely end up at or near the ones in large cities IF small towns received the test kits they needed AND if POLITICS didn't get in the way...


i dont really care about politics. i get my info from most sources to try to get rid of the media bias, left or right.

low population density will help against the virus as social distancing is built in, as you stated. so rural communities are by nature 'safer' than metro areas. there are much less elevators, for example.

the enhanced social distancing for the 15 days would be 1 full incubation period. almost everyone who was infected should come down with the disease. those that are really sick will end up hospitalized or dead, one way or another. note that i said almost everyone. there is always going to be an outlier. if one looks, there will be the outliers that have an incubation period more than 14 days. some even up to 28 days.

so it is never going to be perfect. some people are going to get sick, but if we want perfection, then we may be shutting things down for months. and if it is like flu, i recently learned that the flu never totally goes away in the summer... so it is going to be a decision of what is acceptable.

again, this takes competence and diligence. if the authorities lack those, then we are all in big trouble, whether big city or little town. so instead of planning for authorities to be incompetent, it is the job of the fda and state health people to make sure contact tracing is done.
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cal1piggy
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:18 am    Post subject:

carlosLisboa wrote:
From Madeira Island, PORTUGAL, here (homeland of Ronaldo, the soccer star).

- State of Emergency approved
- Everyone at home.
- Flights shut down.
- Forbidden to walk in the street unless permitted for work reasons, going for authorized shopping (food, medicine), going home, or getting health services
- All public gatherings prohibited (which means sports, theatre, of course)
- Restaurants: take away only (this is not popular in PT as it is in the US)

Only 33 dead in the country so far, but we are still riding on top of the wave.
The US has 30x our population. Almost all were gone last week. This is equivalent to 1000 people at US level.

Please all be safe.


hope your quarantine works.
when was the last time a cruise ship stopped there, if ever?

stay healthy!
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Mamba81
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:10 am    Post subject:

I didn't post this a few days ago when I initially read it because I was suspended

But I thought it was interesting.

https://tinyurl.com/wdd4hgv
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:13 am    Post subject:

Mamba81 wrote:
I didn't post this a few days ago when I initially read it because I was suspended

But I thought it was interesting.

https://tinyurl.com/wdd4hgv


I've seen that. Let's hope he's right. Of course, we have to prepare for the possibility that he's wrong.
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lar9149
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:43 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Mamba81 wrote:
I didn't post this a few days ago when I initially read it because I was suspended

But I thought it was interesting.

https://tinyurl.com/wdd4hgv


I've seen that. Let's hope he's right. Of course, we have to prepare for the possibility that he's wrong.


Absolutely correct. I believe the article is right..but lets prepare for the worse case scenario and if the article is right, even better..things will go back to normal faster.

The very fact we believe the worse case scenario will happen (e.g. 40-50% of the people will be infected, 20 million deaths...), is what can help prevent it from happening.
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cal1piggy
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:30 am    Post subject:

a different drug claiming incredible success (95%) in china...
it is supposed to work for severe cases by stopping cytokline storms (immune system gone amuck)
global trials starting early april, but a us trial may be starting (not sure when)

"Promising arthritis drug being used to treat coronavirus patients in China helped to cure 95 PER CENT of critically ill patients, scientists claim
Tocilizumab, marketed as Actemra, is taken by patients with rheumatoid arthritis
It reduces inflammation, which is considered a complication of COVID-19
It causes lung damage and organ failure, eventually death in most cases
Chinese doctors gave it to 20 patients during the peak of the countries epidemic
Nineteen were discharged within 14 days despite being critically ill
Actemra has now been approved for use in China and for trials in the US"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8151865/Arthritis-drug-helped-cure-95-critically-ill-coronavirus-patients-scientists-claim.html
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:43 am    Post subject:

Mamba81 wrote:
I didn't post this a few days ago when I initially read it because I was suspended

But I thought it was interesting.

https://tinyurl.com/wdd4hgv



See all the good things you could have done but were not able to do just because you had your hot headed ass suspended?

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Mamba81
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:00 pm    Post subject:

Hero Ball wrote:
Mamba81 wrote:
I didn't post this a few days ago when I initially read it because I was suspended

But I thought it was interesting.

https://tinyurl.com/wdd4hgv



See all the good things you could have done but were not able to do just because you had your hot headed ass suspended?



😂😂😂
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TooMuchMajicBuss
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:18 pm    Post subject:

cal1piggy wrote:
a different drug claiming incredible success (95%) in china...
it is supposed to work for severe cases by stopping cytokline storms (immune system gone amuck)
global trials starting early april, but a us trial may be starting (not sure when)

"Promising arthritis drug being used to treat coronavirus patients in China helped to cure 95 PER CENT of critically ill patients, scientists claim
Tocilizumab, marketed as Actemra, is taken by patients with rheumatoid arthritis
It reduces inflammation, which is considered a complication of COVID-19
It causes lung damage and organ failure, eventually death in most cases
Chinese doctors gave it to 20 patients during the peak of the countries epidemic
Nineteen were discharged within 14 days despite being critically ill
Actemra has now been approved for use in China and for trials in the US"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8151865/Arthritis-drug-helped-cure-95-critically-ill-coronavirus-patients-scientists-claim.html


I hope they're talking about inflammation, not the drug itself!
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:21 pm    Post subject:

Mamba81 wrote:
I didn't post this a few days ago when I initially read it because I was suspended

But I thought it was interesting.

https://tinyurl.com/wdd4hgv


I hope you were not suspended because someone threw inappropriate comments your way.
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TooMuchMajicBuss
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:46 pm    Post subject:

Welp. USA just passed China and Italy on Worldometer. Not that I trust the China number.

Nonetheless, sucks to be #1.
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kwase
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:16 pm    Post subject:

TooMuchMajicBuss wrote:
Welp. USA just passed China and Italy on Worldometer. Not that I trust the China number.

Nonetheless, sucks to be #1.




Yep, I just looked at the numbers. Makes you wonder how we got to be #1, overtaking China with a 2.1 billion population. If it's tourism then why didn't the Caribbean get hit, because their numbers are really low. And Russia is right next to China but their numbers are low too. How did it spread so fast to the U.S., Italy, Spain, France and Germany?
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cal1piggy
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:21 pm    Post subject:

TooMuchMajicBuss wrote:
Welp. USA just passed China and Italy on Worldometer. Not that I trust the China number.

Nonetheless, sucks to be #1.


if anyone were to compare china against italy/spain using the amount of time on the exponential curve for the daily case #s and daily death #s, it would be pretty obvious that china's numbers are total bs.

wuhan has a much more dense population than lombardy and though madrid's population is within 2x of wuhan
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:31 pm    Post subject:

kwase wrote:
TooMuchMajicBuss wrote:
Welp. USA just passed China and Italy on Worldometer. Not that I trust the China number.

Nonetheless, sucks to be #1.




Yep, I just looked at the numbers. Makes you wonder how we got to be #1, overtaking China with a 2.1 billion population. If it's tourism then why didn't the Caribbean get hit, because their numbers are really low. And Russia is right next to China but their numbers are low too. How did it spread so fast to the U.S., Italy, Spain, France and Germany?


I don't know how Europe got it - business travel from China? but it feels like the US never isolating from Italy was the linchpin here. No data to back any of that up.
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cal1piggy
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:43 pm    Post subject:

looks like la county finally getting some testing capacity by buying korean kits.
over 400 cases today.
driving the california totals by over 800 cases today
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:46 pm    Post subject:

TooMuchMajicBuss wrote:
Welp. USA just passed China and Italy on Worldometer. Not that I trust the China number.

Nonetheless, sucks to be #1.


Italy also looked like it had finally plateaued for 3 days and it was looking to decline, but now the cases are rising again

Back to US, California today just doubled their cases yesterday and the day is not close to being over yet
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:07 pm    Post subject:

kwase wrote:
TooMuchMajicBuss wrote:
Welp. USA just passed China and Italy on Worldometer. Not that I trust the China number.

Nonetheless, sucks to be #1.




Yep, I just looked at the numbers. Makes you wonder how we got to be #1, overtaking China with a 2.1 billion population. If it's tourism then why didn't the Caribbean get hit, because their numbers are really low. And Russia is right next to China but their numbers are low too. How did it spread so fast to the U.S., Italy, Spain, France and Germany?


Any country that did not take this seriously is (bleep). We don't have a lockdown. We are way behind in testing. The people are not taking this seriously. We don't have an integrated healthcare system that can effectively communicate and track cases. We have a 3rd world level healthcare system.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:27 pm    Post subject:

TooMuchMajicBuss wrote:
cal1piggy wrote:
a different drug claiming incredible success (95%) in china...
it is supposed to work for severe cases by stopping cytokline storms (immune system gone amuck)
global trials starting early april, but a us trial may be starting (not sure when)

"Promising arthritis drug being used to treat coronavirus patients in China helped to cure 95 PER CENT of critically ill patients, scientists claim
Tocilizumab, marketed as Actemra, is taken by patients with rheumatoid arthritis
It reduces inflammation, which is considered a complication of COVID-19
It causes lung damage and organ failure, eventually death in most cases
Chinese doctors gave it to 20 patients during the peak of the countries epidemic
Nineteen were discharged within 14 days despite being critically ill
Actemra has now been approved for use in China and for trials in the US"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8151865/Arthritis-drug-helped-cure-95-critically-ill-coronavirus-patients-scientists-claim.html


I hope they're talking about inflammation, not the drug itself!




They're talking about inflammation.

This interleukin-6 inhibitor is a fairly new drug developed in Japan.

I'm liking the Pro's and Con's.

I hope this is it.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:31 pm    Post subject:

kwase wrote:
TooMuchMajicBuss wrote:
Welp. USA just passed China and Italy on Worldometer. Not that I trust the China number.

Nonetheless, sucks to be #1.




Yep, I just looked at the numbers. Makes you wonder how we got to be #1, overtaking China with a 2.1 billion population. If it's tourism then why didn't the Caribbean get hit, because their numbers are really low. And Russia is right next to China but their numbers are low too. How did it spread so fast to the U.S., Italy, Spain, France and Germany?


One Italian article questioned if soccer games might have had a huge impact. The first confirmed cases in Italy were two people traveling from China on Jan 31st. February 19 was something like a first round playoff game for Atalanta in Bergamo vs Valencia from Spain attended by 40,000 people from all over Spain and Italy.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:37 pm    Post subject:

Hero Ball wrote:
TooMuchMajicBuss wrote:
cal1piggy wrote:
a different drug claiming incredible success (95%) in china...
it is supposed to work for severe cases by stopping cytokline storms (immune system gone amuck)
global trials starting early april, but a us trial may be starting (not sure when)

"Promising arthritis drug being used to treat coronavirus patients in China helped to cure 95 PER CENT of critically ill patients, scientists claim
Tocilizumab, marketed as Actemra, is taken by patients with rheumatoid arthritis
It reduces inflammation, which is considered a complication of COVID-19
It causes lung damage and organ failure, eventually death in most cases
Chinese doctors gave it to 20 patients during the peak of the countries epidemic
Nineteen were discharged within 14 days despite being critically ill
Actemra has now been approved for use in China and for trials in the US"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8151865/Arthritis-drug-helped-cure-95-critically-ill-coronavirus-patients-scientists-claim.html


I hope they're talking about inflammation, not the drug itself!




They're talking about inflammation.

This interleukin-6 inhibitor is a fairly new drug developed in Japan.

I'm liking the Pro's and Con's.

I hope this is it.


@hero ball

there are other IL's that mediate inflammation and this type of immune response. do you know why they specifically developed a monoclonal antibody for IL6?
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