Al Jefferson, Howard, and Bynum
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ProjectAB
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 4:47 pm    Post subject: Al Jefferson, Howard, and Bynum

For those who already doubt Bynum, check out Jefferson's stats in his first three years in the league:

14.8 .528 .000 .630 1.7 2.7 4.4 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.93 2.70 6.7
18.0 .499 .000 .642 1.6 3.4 5.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.05 2.80 7.9
33.3 .509 .000 .678 3.5 7.5 11.0 1.2 0.7 1.5 2.03 3.40 15.5

The most shocking thing about those stats is if you prorate Jefferson's 3rd year minutes to Howard's, he'd come very close to Howard's numbers. In addition, right now, Bynum is not even at the age that Jefferson was in his first year(basically, Jefferson was 1 and 9 months older than Bynum when he came into the league).

See, I don't think people really grasp being 19 really means. They keep brushing it off like it's nothing, but as we can see relatively here, 19 is really really young. If you compared him to Howard, then he's behind, but if you compared him to a guy like Jefferson, he's well ahead. Regardless, if he was behind, then he's going to get a bigger jump, if he's ahead, it just means that he's not going to get the same improvements. The most important thing is the end product.

Now the interesting thing about Jefferson is that if you look at him, you'll see that he's really nothing special athletically, and severly undersized at his position(he plays C), yet he's still able to put up 15 and 11(which for some reason, some here seem to think to be some kind of impossible milestone, once again, I guess they're so used to seeing Chris Mihm and Kwame that they forgot that those numbers aren't really a big deal), in a mere 33 minutes.

The only trait that you see common in guys like Howard, Chandler, Curry, and Jefferson, that determines whether they'll break out, is if they're willing to work or not. So my original premise, anyone that was picked in the lottery can be at least a starter, if he's willing to work hard enough, is wholly accurate.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 6:54 pm    Post subject:

Jefferson is a PF and is playing spot minutes at the 5 this season because of injuries. He also had a lot of hype coming out of high school, Bynum doesnt deserve to be lumped in with those guys.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:02 pm    Post subject:

Jefferson attended Prentiss High School in Prentiss, Mississippi. As a senior, he was a 2004 McDonald's All-American selection, and was a finalist for the Naismith Award, after he averaged 42 points and 16 rebounds and 9 blocks per game during the season. He committed to the University of Arkansas, but decided to forego college for the NBA Draft.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:11 pm    Post subject:

Here goes the 2nd guessing again. Sorry, but no one even knew about Jefferson. And Mike, since when did high school stats matter? If they do, then Greg Oden must be the biggest bust of all Seriously, it's amazing how much people will backtrack.

Truth is, there is zilch, nada evidence that you knew Jefferson was going to play like this this year. The only reason he broke out is that Bynum inspired him(just like he did Curry and Chandler.) It was said that he hired a chef and decided to lose weight, that's the only reason he's playing so well.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:16 pm    Post subject:

^Just making a point. Even Al Jefferson made the All 1st Team McDonald's All American team, recognized as the top 5 of his entire HS competition.

I didn't pay attention to Jefferson. I figure he'd be solid but not a dominating player. So, I didn't care.

Andrew Bynum made HS McD All American 3rd team as a Senior while Oden was a junior being on the 1st team.

What does that say about Bynum? Behind the curve.

You keep making this about age and fans make it as if his lack of HS experience is a "benefit" to him. It's not. The ideas of him being a franchise player are still there, but man, he hit the wall hard and he's not recovering well. For months.

I never said he wouldn't be a solid starter. That's the projected upside I'm betting he makes. Franchise? I'm not absolutely banking on that.

Think. As talented as Odom was at 19/20 out of URI, basically the same player now, and still not a franchise player.

You think it's so wholly dependent on work ethic. I don't. Sasha works his tail off. He was 19/20 when drafted once. What about Jordan Farmar? He was drafted at 19 and was busy taking UCLA to the Finals. Shall we start talking about how they may be franchise players now?

Fans forget Kobe at 17 was already killing NBA players.
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Last edited by Mike@LG on Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:23 pm; edited 2 times in total
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:20 pm    Post subject:

ProjectAB wrote:
Here goes the 2nd guessing again. Sorry, but no one even knew about Jefferson. And Mike, since when did high school stats matter? If they do, then Greg Oden must be the biggest bust of all Seriously, it's amazing how much people will backtrack.

Truth is, there is zilch, nada evidence that you knew Jefferson was going to play like this this year. The only reason he broke out is that Bynum inspired him(just like he did Curry and Chandler.) It was said that he hired a chef and decided to lose weight, that's the only reason he's playing so well.


Bynum inspired him?

Oh, come on! Andrew has a lot of potential, sure, but he is still too raw to make any kind of educated projection about where he will be in a few years, let alone his peak. Personally, when I watch him play, it almost seems as if he is holding back a little bit, reluctant to make a power move to finish a play. He has never ever been truly "dominant" at any stage in his basketball career, unlike the other players you mentioned, so you can't make the argument that he simply has to adjust. I'm excited to watch him improved in the next couple of seasons, but these predictions really have nothing behind them except for blind hope.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:24 pm    Post subject:

Bynum was 3 years younger than Jefferson. Remember, he was 17 when he declared. Plus, Jefferson didn't have Oden and Durant(who played center, which is not that unusual in high school, and was named to 2nd Team) to contend with.

Seriously Mike, it's amazing the length you'll go to knock Bynum, using high school awards because you couldn't use high school stats? That's just so weak. Heck, I haven't even brought up Lamarcus Aldridge and Tyrus Thomas, factor in Marvin Williams and I'm not sure how much credibility you really have.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:28 pm    Post subject:

Jeffs wrote:
ProjectAB wrote:
Here goes the 2nd guessing again. Sorry, but no one even knew about Jefferson. And Mike, since when did high school stats matter? If they do, then Greg Oden must be the biggest bust of all Seriously, it's amazing how much people will backtrack.

Truth is, there is zilch, nada evidence that you knew Jefferson was going to play like this this year. The only reason he broke out is that Bynum inspired him(just like he did Curry and Chandler.) It was said that he hired a chef and decided to lose weight, that's the only reason he's playing so well.


Bynum inspired him?

Oh, come on! Andrew has a lot of potential, sure, but he is still too raw to make any kind of educated projection about where he will be in a few years, let alone his peak. Personally, when I watch him play, it almost seems as if he is holding back a little bit, reluctant to make a power move to finish a play. He has never ever been truly "dominant" at any stage in his basketball career, unlike the other players you mentioned, so you can't make the argument that he simply has to adjust. I'm excited to watch him improved in the next couple of seasons, but these predictions really have nothing behind them except for blind hope.
''

Never dominant at any stage sounds bad, but in truth, dominant at the high school level means nothing, and considering that he never went to college, it's hard to show that he can be dominant there .

Fact: Bynum is still younger than the age at which Jefferson declared, that should show you how much he is ahead of Jefferson.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:32 pm    Post subject:

Hey I remember a guy named Jermaine O'neal who sat on Portland's bench and then busted out a few years after he was drafted. But then I also remember the other handful of bigs who were projected to be something in this league but never amount to anything.

Point being, there are more projects who become busts than allstar/superstars. Bringing up Al Jefferson as a point of comparison is such a moot point. Andrew Bynum is a gamble any way you swing it. The probability of him becoming something is against him. I don't mind waiting but if something nice rolls along, goodbye Andrew!
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:40 pm    Post subject:

ProjectAB wrote:
Bynum was 3 years younger than Jefferson. Remember, he was 17 when he declared. Plus, Jefferson didn't have Oden and Durant(who played center, which is not that unusual in high school, and was named to 2nd Team) to contend with.

Seriously Mike, it's amazing the length you'll go to knock Bynum, using high school awards because you couldn't use high school stats? That's just so weak. Heck, I haven't even brought up Lamarcus Aldridge and Tyrus Thomas, factor in Marvin Williams and I'm not sure how much credibility you really have.


I'm not knocking Bynum. What part have I lied about? You can hate my opinion all you want but it's irrelevant anyway and yet you take it so seriously.

Remember he was 17 when he declared? Yeah I remember. I remember he declared late because he thought the NBA was an after thought and he was going to UConn. I remember hype built up on him really late (which says a lot about the lack of stardom/potential leading up to the draft). I remember reading about his individual workouts, saying he had good physical tools, good IQ, but so raw of a foundation that everyone knew how much he had to be taught. Fact.

Andrew Bynum didn't go up against Oden or Durant either. Al Jefferson had it a bit worse. Dwight Howard. Rudy Gay. Shawn Livingston. Corey Brewer. Josh Smith. JR Smith. Only Dwight compares to Oden but the rest of that McD team is DEEP.

http://scouthoops.scout.com/2/235809.html

I personally know high school stats are irrelevant. Really, how much credibility am I going to put in Tracy Murray's potential because he averaged 45ppg? Oh he must be a dominant NBA scorer for sure. Or Monta Ellis. He averaged 40ppg, 10 more than Bryant, so he'll be a better scorer in the NBA than Kobe. Absurd? You're right it is, because statistics are irrelevant when it comes to comparison.

I use awards because it takes into consideration dominance over the actual competition, including elite teams and players. That's why Oden got more credit than Bynum.

How much credibility I have? I don't care if you give me credibility or not. Fans who've known me far longer on here at least understand my opinions and know they are well backed up by facts prior, during the draft, workouts, and Summer Pro League. You want me to apologize for Bynum's lackluster first SPL? It's not coming from me.

As for Marvin Williams, I'm sorry you missed the SPL. Clearly the most dominant player of the Summer until he broke his hand. As for Tyrus Thomas, his team made the Final Four didn't he? Is he not blocking Shaq's shots? Is he not rebounding and swatting as projected with elite level athleticism for his size? You want to argue me about work ethic and improvement? He's as good as it gets.

Quote:
Competition
In high school, Thomas was only 5-11 as a freshman. He only played organized basketball in his junior and senior years and never really built up enough recruiting hype to be considered a top 100 prospect. As a junior he was a mere 6-6 and 190 pounds, and when he officially committed to LSU they did not initially even have a scholarship for him. One later opened up when a JUCO recruit was kicked off his team and his scholarship offer was rescinded. Thomas grew to 6-7 ½, 200 pounds as a high school senior, and averaged 16 points, 12 rebounds and six blocks per game, good enough only for the all-second team in Louisiana. He was forced to redshirt his freshman year at LSU after injuring his neck, and grew to 6-9, 215 pounds over that year.

Thomas now plays in the most athletic conference in America, the SEC. His team won their conference fairly easily with a 14-2 record, and then lost to Florida in the semifinals of the SEC tournament with Thomas out resting his ankle for the NCAA tournament. LSU also played an extremely difficult out of conference schedule, going on the road to play against teams like West Virginia, Cincinnati, Ohio State and UConn. The UConn game (see links: freshman forwards fantastic…) was Thomas’ coming out party at the national level, scoring 15 points with 13 rebounds and 7 blocks against the best front-court in the nation on their home floor on national television.

On the year, Thomas averaged 12.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.1 blocks in 26 minutes per game on over 60% shooting from the field.

In the NCAA tournament (see various links: NCAA tournament) Thomas was fantastic in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight against some of the best frontcourt players in America, coming up with 9 points (3/5 FG), 13 rebounds and 5 blocks against Duke, and then 21 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks against Texas. At the time of this report, LSU is headed to their first Final Four in 20 years.


What about Aldridge? Took his team deep in the tourney.

http://www.nba.com/playerfile/lamarcus_aldridge/index.html

Look at his last 3 games. I haven't seen that out of Bynum in consecutive games.

Hell, he's just now getting PT. Now look at the production.

http://www.nba.com/playerfile/lamarcus_aldridge/game_by_game_stats.html

He's living up to the hype.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:41 pm    Post subject:

dvdrdiscs wrote:
Hey I remember a guy named Jermaine O'neal who sat on Portland's bench and then busted out a few years after he was drafted. But then I also remember the other handful of bigs who were projected to be something in this league but never amount to anything.

Point being, there are more projects who become busts than allstar/superstars. Bringing up Al Jefferson as a point of comparison is such a moot point. Andrew Bynum is a gamble any way you swing it. The probability of him becoming something is against him. I don't mind waiting but if something nice rolls along, goodbye Andrew!


And if you ask Brian Grant and Rasheed Wallace about Jermaine, they'd tell you he was dominating practice despite being so young.

Part of the reason why O'Neal left was because he learned a crapload from Grant/Sheed in practice and knew he wouldn't get past the shadow of both of them until he got a better opportunity.

He did.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:50 pm    Post subject:

dvdrdiscs wrote:
Hey I remember a guy named Jermaine O'neal who sat on Portland's bench and then busted out a few years after he was drafted. But then I also remember the other handful of bigs who were projected to be something in this league but never amount to anything.

Point being, there are more projects who become busts than allstar/superstars. Bringing up Al Jefferson as a point of comparison is such a moot point. Andrew Bynum is a gamble any way you swing it. The probability of him becoming something is against him. I don't mind waiting but if something nice rolls along, goodbye Andrew!


I used Jefferson because it shows that even someone with limited size and athleticism can be at least a starter. As far as there are more projects who became busts than All-Stars, how so? Curry? Chandler? No, these guys aren't busts. And if they had worked harder, they might have been All-Stars by now.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, the difference between the physical talent among most guys in the lottery isn't as great as their stats indicates. The reason is that the guys with more talent know that they can achieve greatness and fame by working hard, so that drives them, and that creates a much bigger gap than it should be.

The guys who become busts are the ones who don't work, it's that simple. In fact, I hesitate to say that Lamarcus Aldridge was because I had a great eye for talent. Even I would admit that the Blazers is a much better organization than the Bulls, as far as developing talent goes. Here was a quote from a Blazers assistant coach when they traded that Korean dude, "he did not know "HOW HARD" he had to work to become a player in this league." I knew right then that they knew what they were doing.

The Blazers had 2 players that are probably the #1 and #2 in last year's draft(and that kid Sergio ain't bad either), not because they had a great eye for talent, but because their organization knew how hard their players had to work.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:57 pm    Post subject:

Every high-schooler I've seen that has jumped to the NBA and ever made an impact already had their one major skill-set in abundance.

Kobe- All-World in terms of skills.
KG- Defense, intensity, and rebounding.
T-Mac- PG mentality, ball-handling at that size, and defense.
JO- Shotblocking.
LeBron- Another All-World skills.
Dwight Howard- Defense and rebounding.
Al Jefferson- Polished post game and rebounding.
Monta Ellis- Speed and ability to fill it up.

That's not to say that these guys didn't have flaws, but they had something that made them worthy of making the jump. Bynum basically had size and a good head on his shoulders that allows him to be coached.

He's going to be a solid starter and maybe a near All-Star one day, but I just don't think he'll ever reach that superstar level.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:58 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
ProjectAB wrote:
Bynum was 3 years younger than Jefferson. Remember, he was 17 when he declared. Plus, Jefferson didn't have Oden and Durant(who played center, which is not that unusual in high school, and was named to 2nd Team) to contend with.

Seriously Mike, it's amazing the length you'll go to knock Bynum, using high school awards because you couldn't use high school stats? That's just so weak. Heck, I haven't even brought up Lamarcus Aldridge and Tyrus Thomas, factor in Marvin Williams and I'm not sure how much credibility you really have.


I'm not knocking Bynum. What part have I lied about? You can hate my opinion all you want but it's irrelevant anyway and yet you take it so seriously.

Remember he was 17 when he declared? Yeah I remember. I remember he declared late because he thought the NBA was an after thought and he was going to UConn. I remember hype built up on him really late (which says a lot about the lack of stardom/potential leading up to the draft). I remember reading about his individual workouts, saying he had good physical tools, good IQ, but so raw of a foundation that everyone knew how much he had to be taught. Fact.

Andrew Bynum didn't go up against Oden or Durant either. Al Jefferson had it a bit worse. Dwight Howard. Rudy Gay. Shawn Livingston. Corey Brewer. Josh Smith. JR Smith. Only Dwight compares to Oden but the rest of that McD team is DEEP.

http://scouthoops.scout.com/2/235809.html

I personally know high school stats are irrelevant. Really, how much credibility am I going to put in Tracy Murray's potential because he averaged 45ppg? Oh he must be a dominant NBA scorer for sure. Or Monta Ellis. He averaged 40ppg, 10 more than Bryant, so he'll be a better scorer in the NBA than Kobe. Absurd? You're right it is, because statistics are irrelevant when it comes to comparison.

I use awards because it takes into consideration dominance over the actual competition, including elite teams and players. That's why Oden got more credit than Bynum.

How much credibility I have? I don't care if you give me credibility or not. Fans who've known me far longer on here at least understand my opinions and know they are well backed up by facts prior, during the draft, workouts, and Summer Pro League. You want me to apologize for Bynum's lackluster first SPL? It's not coming from me.

As for Marvin Williams, I'm sorry you missed the SPL. Clearly the most dominant player of the Summer until he broke his hand. As for Tyrus Thomas, his team made the Final Four didn't he? Is he not blocking Shaq's shots? Is he not rebounding and swatting as projected with elite level athleticism for his size? You want to argue me about work ethic and improvement? He's as good as it gets.

Quote:
Competition
In high school, Thomas was only 5-11 as a freshman. He only played organized basketball in his junior and senior years and never really built up enough recruiting hype to be considered a top 100 prospect. As a junior he was a mere 6-6 and 190 pounds, and when he officially committed to LSU they did not initially even have a scholarship for him. One later opened up when a JUCO recruit was kicked off his team and his scholarship offer was rescinded. Thomas grew to 6-7 ½, 200 pounds as a high school senior, and averaged 16 points, 12 rebounds and six blocks per game, good enough only for the all-second team in Louisiana. He was forced to redshirt his freshman year at LSU after injuring his neck, and grew to 6-9, 215 pounds over that year.

Thomas now plays in the most athletic conference in America, the SEC. His team won their conference fairly easily with a 14-2 record, and then lost to Florida in the semifinals of the SEC tournament with Thomas out resting his ankle for the NCAA tournament. LSU also played an extremely difficult out of conference schedule, going on the road to play against teams like West Virginia, Cincinnati, Ohio State and UConn. The UConn game (see links: freshman forwards fantastic…) was Thomas’ coming out party at the national level, scoring 15 points with 13 rebounds and 7 blocks against the best front-court in the nation on their home floor on national television.

On the year, Thomas averaged 12.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.1 blocks in 26 minutes per game on over 60% shooting from the field.

In the NCAA tournament (see various links: NCAA tournament) Thomas was fantastic in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight against some of the best frontcourt players in America, coming up with 9 points (3/5 FG), 13 rebounds and 5 blocks against Duke, and then 21 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks against Texas. At the time of this report, LSU is headed to their first Final Four in 20 years.


What about Aldridge? Took his team deep in the tourney.

http://www.nba.com/playerfile/lamarcus_aldridge/index.html

Look at his last 3 games. I haven't seen that out of Bynum in consecutive games.

Hell, he's just now getting PT. Now look at the production.

http://www.nba.com/playerfile/lamarcus_aldridge/game_by_game_stats.html

He's living up to the hype.


Jefferson didn't have to contend with Howard as he played PF. Clearly, you are trying to mislead there. Jefferson's competition was Aldridge and Williams, not bad, but not quite Oden and Durant. Furthermore, all this is irrelevant when Bynum was 2 years younger than Jefferson at the time they were on those teams. Where was Jefferson at 17? I thought so.

As far as Aldridge, I'm saying that he's playing much better than Tyrus Thomas, when you projected the reverse. Aldridge is clearly more athletic than you projected him.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:00 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
dvdrdiscs wrote:
Hey I remember a guy named Jermaine O'neal who sat on Portland's bench and then busted out a few years after he was drafted. But then I also remember the other handful of bigs who were projected to be something in this league but never amount to anything.

Point being, there are more projects who become busts than allstar/superstars. Bringing up Al Jefferson as a point of comparison is such a moot point. Andrew Bynum is a gamble any way you swing it. The probability of him becoming something is against him. I don't mind waiting but if something nice rolls along, goodbye Andrew!


And if you ask Brian Grant and Rasheed Wallace about Jermaine, they'd tell you he was dominating practice despite being so young.

Part of the reason why O'Neal left was because he learned a crapload from Grant/Sheed in practice and knew he wouldn't get past the shadow of both of them until he got a better opportunity.

He did.


Yeah I remember Jermaine's problem wasn't his lack of skills but he had to play behind the likes of Rasheed and Brian Grant. I guess I picked a bad example but my point was although there are guys who will finally overcome that barrier, whether it be PT or rookie wall, there are 10 more guys who never could live up to their expectations.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:06 pm    Post subject:

magic_bryant wrote:
Every high-schooler I've seen that has jumped to the NBA and ever made an impact already had their one major skill-set in abundance.

Kobe- All-World in terms of skills.
KG- Defense, intensity, and rebounding.
T-Mac- PG mentality, ball-handling at that size, and defense.
JO- Shotblocking.
LeBron- Another All-World skills.
Dwight Howard- Defense and rebounding.
Al Jefferson- Polished post game and rebounding.
Monta Ellis- Speed and ability to fill it up.

That's not to say that these guys didn't have flaws, but they had something that made them worthy of making the jump. Bynum basically had size and a good head on his shoulders that allows him to be coached.

He's going to be a solid starter and maybe a near All-Star one day, but I just don't think he'll ever reach that superstar level.


You wouldn't expect Jefferson to jump from 8 and 5(doesn't matter what he did in high school, 8 and 5 in the pros is 8 and 5) to 15 and 11, which according to some here, is some hallow mark. But hey, when it comes to Bynum, it must be so difficult right? I hate to repeat this, but once again, you have absolutely no clues how Bynum will turn out.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:07 pm    Post subject:

I don't get why there is all this talk of Al Jefferson as if though he has become some giant. He is good, but still not helping his team win. Bynum has not helped the Lakers win. Dwight Howard, now that guy has helped his team win and thus should not be used in comparisons with Bynum. He is in a totally different league.

Use Bynum in a trade for Gasol or KG, now those guys have made their teams win in the past.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:14 pm    Post subject:

Al Jefferson was an example of how one can jump from 6 and 4 to 15 and 11 if one put his mind to it. He's not helping his team win because he's only 22, and his lack of size doesn't allow him to control the paint. Bynum wouldn't have that problem.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:19 pm    Post subject:

Mike:

I couldn't agree with you more. The "Bynum is too young" argument is getting a bit stale. I'm of the opinion that you get a good glimpse of the personality and qualities of a guy almost immediately, and I'm not a big fan of "developing" big men.

I wrote a post about Bynum in the lounge comparing AB to the other big men that had come out of high school, and some posters felt like I couldn't compare Andrew to some of the other players, because, again, Andrew was too young. But with the good players, they're good almost immediately.

Now, while AB's no Amare nor Dwight Howard, IMO, there are certain signs you can show of becoming a paint presence: and IMO, there's three traits that the true, power paint presences show is: finishing near the hole (i.e., being a strong finisher & dunker), rebounding, and shot-blocking. Andrew's shown promise in being strong on the boards, and in blocking shots, but he's inconsistent. But the thing that troubles me most is that Andrew seems to be passive: 1.) often, when he DOES get the ball, he passes it away almost immediately, or spends too much time thinking about what he's going to do, and 2.) (even more troubling) is AB's unwillingness to dunk near the hole when he's contested--he doesn't seem to ENJOY CONTACT like the truly good, physical centers do.

Granted, he's a kid playing with men, but the TRULY competitive, good, upper-tier centers, and players in general like to rise to the occassion.

As I said in my post, year 3' will be CRUCIAL. Andrew's hit a wall this year, and in his 2nd year, at 19, he gets a small reprieve. But by 20, he will have been a College Junior--and IMO, the excuses gets dimmer. Simply put, if the kid doesn't average a double-double, or say, 12ppg & 8.5rpg (he averages basically 8 & 6 in 22 mins/gm this year), I'd either start dangling him, or reducing my expectations:

If the kid can come back next year DRAMATICALLY STRONGER, which would probably get him to being a 13ppg, 10rpg player, we could be talking about a future 18ppg, 13rpg player. However, if he comes back with no significant improvement, we're talking a career 10 & 8 player, at best, I believe: 20 isn't as young as it used to be.

But, even if he comes back stronger, the thing I'll be looking for the most is whether the kid comes back more AGGRESSIVE. That's the quality that separates the good ones from the stiffs, and the All-Stars from the flops. Not coincidentally, that's the quality I'm worried about the most in AB.


Last edited by iceberg01 on Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:23 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
Jefferson didn't have to contend with Howard as he played PF. Clearly, you are trying to mislead there. Jefferson's competition was Aldridge and Williams, not bad, but not quite Oden and Durant. Furthermore, all this is irrelevant when Bynum was 2 years younger than Jefferson at the time they were on those teams. Where was Jefferson at 17? I thought so.

As far as Aldridge, I'm saying that he's playing much better than Tyrus Thomas, when you projected the reverse. Aldridge is clearly more athletic than you projected him.


Ahem. Jefferson had to play Howard as both played Center in high school. Same goes for Aldridge.

Marvin Williams did not play Center for his school.

This is irrelevant when Bynum was 2 years younger? Why do you want us to credit Bynum so badly for something he had partial control of. He could've started basketball earlier, but he didn't. Players in and out of his position in HS bumped him out of the Top 2 HS All American Teams.

Just so you know, McD teams are entirely made of seniors. So, how bad is it when Juniors/Sophs are outranking you at age 16/17/18?

It would be a different story if Bynum was 17, spent 4 years dominating HS basketball (like LeBron, KG, Kobe, etc). But he didn't. And you think it's unfair for me to not project him as a franchise player when he's that far behind the curve?

Do you realize how hard LeBron, KG, Kobe, etc. had to work during AND after HS just to get to where they're at?

As for Tyrus Thomas, I didn't project the reverse IMMEDIATELY. That's the difference. You don't think the time spent for Aldridge in Texas wasn't important? Yet, after the growth Thomas had as a person and a player both athletically and skill-wise, you want me to bank against his upside?

Think Bynum had similar growth in terms of athleticism and skills in a 4 year period compared to Thomas? Don't think so. Bynum didn't even play against elite level HS competition, unlike Hansbrough, Oden, Derrick Character, and Josh McRoberts.

Quote:

You wouldn't expect Jefferson to jump from 8 and 5(doesn't matter what he did in high school, 8 and 5 in the pros is 8 and 5) to 15 and 11, which according to some here, is some hallow mark. But hey, when it comes to Bynum, it must be so difficult right? I hate to repeat this, but once again, you have absolutely no clues how Bynum will turn out.


Is anyone projecting Jefferson to be a franchise player? No. Have I not projected THE EXACT same 15 and 11 for Bynum in the past? If you think I haven't, you're sorely mistaken.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:25 pm    Post subject:

iceberg01 wrote:
Mike:

I couldn't agree with you more. The "Bynum is too young" argument is getting a bit stale. I'm of the opinion that you get a good glimpse of the personality and qualities of a guy almost immediately, and I'm not a big fan of "developing" big men.

I wrote a post about Bynum in the lounge comparing AB to the other big men that had come out of high school, and some posters felt like I couldn't compare Andrew to some of the other players, because, again, Andrew was too young. But with the good players, they're good almost immediately.

Now, while AB's no Amare nor Dwight Howard, IMO, there are certain signs you can show of becoming a paint presence: and IMO, there's three traits that the true, power paint presences show is: finishing near the hole (i.e., being a strong finisher & dunker), rebounding, and shot-blocking. Andrew's shown promise in being strong on the boards, and in blocking shots, but he's inconsistent. But the thing that troubles me most is that Andrew seems to be passive: 1.) often, when he DOES get the ball, he passes it away almost immediately, or spends too much time thinking about what he's going to do, and 2.) (even more troubling) is AB's unwillingness to dunk near the hole when he's contested--he doesn't seem to ENJOY CONTACT like the truly good, physical centers do.

Granted, he's a kid playing with men, but the TRULY competitive, good, upper-tier centers, and players in general like to rise to the occassion.

As I said in my post, year 3' will be CRUCIAL. Andrew's hit a wall this year, and in his 2nd year, at 19, he gets a small reprieve. But by 20, he will have been a College Junior--and IMO, the excuses gets dimmer. Simply put, if the kid doesn't average a double-double, or say, 12ppg & 8.5rpg (he averages basically 8 & 6 in 22 mins/gm this year), I'd either start dangling him, or reducing my expectations:

If the kid can come back next year DRAMATICALLY STRONGER, which would probably get him to being a 13ppg, 10rpg player, we could be talking about a future 18ppg, 13rpg player. However, if he comes back with no significant improvement, we're talking a career 10 & 8 player, at best, I believe: 20 isn't as young as it used to be.

But, even if he comes back stronger, the thing I'll be looking for the most is whether the kid comes back more AGGRESSIVE. That's the quality that separates the good ones from the stiffs, and the All-Stars from the flops. Not coincidentally, that's the quality I'm worried about the most in AB.


I'm glad we see things similarly when it comes to draft prospects and they're projection for the NBA.

I'm hesitant to project numbers as high as 18ppg 13rpg. Those are numbers acheivable by players like Dwight Howard and Amare Stoudemire who really like contact in the paint. Bynum, not quite so much.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:31 pm    Post subject:

iceberg01 wrote:
Mike:

I couldn't agree with you more. The "Bynum is too young" argument is getting a bit stale. I'm of the opinion that you get a good glimpse of the personality and qualities of a guy almost immediately, and I'm not a big fan of "developing" big men.

I wrote a post about Bynum in the lounge comparing AB to the other big men that had come out of high school, and some posters felt like I couldn't compare Andrew to some of the other players, because, again, Andrew was too young. But with the good players, they're good almost immediately.

Now, while AB's no Amare nor Dwight Howard, IMO, there are certain signs you can show of becoming a paint presence: and IMO, there's three traits that the true, power paint presences show is: finishing near the hole (i.e., being a strong finisher & dunker), rebounding, and shot-blocking. Andrew's shown promise in being strong on the boards, and in blocking shots, but he's inconsistent. But the thing that troubles me most is that Andrew seems to be passive: 1.) often, when he DOES get the ball, he passes it away almost immediately, or spends too much time thinking about what he's going to do, and 2.) (even more troubling) is AB's unwillingness to dunk near the hole when he's contested--he doesn't seem to ENJOY CONTACT like the truly good, physical centers do.

Granted, he's a kid playing with men, but the TRULY competitive, good, upper-tier centers, and players in general like to rise to the occassion.

As I said in my post, year 3' will be CRUCIAL. Andrew's hit a wall this year, and in his 2nd year, at 19, he gets a small reprieve. But by 20, he will have been a College Junior--and IMO, the excuses gets dimmer. Simply put, if the kid doesn't average a double-double, or say, 12ppg & 8.5rpg (he averages basically 8 & 6 in 22 mins/gm this year), I'd either start dangling him, or reducing my expectations:

If the kid can come back next year DRAMATICALLY STRONGER, which would probably get him to being a 13ppg, 10rpg player, we could be talking about a future 18ppg, 13rpg player. However, if he comes back with no significant improvement, we're talking a career 10 & 8 player, at best, I believe: 20 isn't as young as it used to be.

But, even if he comes back stronger, the thing I'll be looking for the most is whether the kid comes back more AGGRESSIVE. That's the quality that separates the good ones from the stiffs, and the All-Stars from the flops. Not coincidentally, that's the quality I'm worried about the most in AB.


Jefferson didn't show any aggressiveness when he came into the league. That doesn't prevent him from averaging 15 and 11(pretty damn impressive for a 6'10 guy playing out of position, and without great jumping ability). And if he had a little more stamina(which is a lot easier to improve than trying to improve your stats per min), he'd be putting Howard's numbers, all that without dunking. Seriously, people need to start looking at the stats, instead of all this "perception" of how this guy is going to be like so and so, because it's clear that the actual stats will play out to be anything but.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:33 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
and his lack of size doesn't allow him to control the paint.


Are you joking? He plays PF. Right?

Predraft Measurements.

Al Jefferson 6' 8.25" 6' 9.75" 263 7' 2.5" 9' 2"

Dwight Howard 6' 9" 6' 10.25" 240 7' 4.5" 9' 3.5"

Emeka Okafor 6' 8.75" 6' 10" 257 7' 4" 9' 2.5"

Tiago Splitter 6' 10.25" 6' 11.75" 233 7' 2" 9' 1.5"

Bogut, Andrew 6' 11" 7' 0¼" 250.6 7' 3" 9' 2½"

Diogu, Ike 6' 6½" 6' 8" 255.4 7' 3½" 9' 1"

Frye, Channing 6' 9½" 6' 10½" 243.6 7' 2½" 9' 2½"

Turiaf, Ronny 6' 8" 6' 9¼" 237.8 7' 1½" 8' 10½"

Villanueva, Charlie 6' 9" 6' 9½" 236.6 7' 0¼" 9' 1"

Amare Stoudemire 6'8-1/2" 6'10" 233 7'1-3/4" 9'-1/2"

Size doesn't separate these players. Al Jefferson doesn't standout like Yao Ming at C or Magic Johnson at PG. All these guys are practically even.

The separation is in athleticism.

It's not surprising when the most athletic guys of the above list happen to be the projected franchise players and most successful in the NBA.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:38 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
Jefferson didn't show any aggressiveness when he came into the league.


I disagree. He was a bulldozer in the paint. Unfortunately, he got away with that in HS. In the NBA, everyone else was his size, so he had to compensate with actual post skills.



Talk about going RIGHT at a player and being a paint presence...
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:42 pm    Post subject:

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Ahem. Jefferson had to play Howard as both played Center in high school. Same goes for Aldridge.

Marvin Williams did not play Center for his school.

This is irrelevant when Bynum was 2 years younger? Why do you want us to credit Bynum so badly for something he had partial control of. He could've started basketball earlier, but he didn't. Players in and out of his position in HS bumped him out of the Top 2 HS All American Teams.

Just so you know, McD teams are entirely made of seniors. So, how bad is it when Juniors/Sophs are outranking you at age 16/17/18?

It would be a different story if Bynum was 17, spent 4 years dominating HS basketball (like LeBron, KG, Kobe, etc). But he didn't. And you think it's unfair for me to not project him as a franchise player when he's that far behind the curve?

Do you realize how hard LeBron, KG, Kobe, etc. had to work during AND after HS just to get to where they're at?

As for Tyrus Thomas, I didn't project the reverse IMMEDIATELY. That's the difference. You don't think the time spent for Aldridge in Texas wasn't important? Yet, after the growth Thomas had as a person and a player both athletically and skill-wise, you want me to bank against his upside?

Think Bynum had similar growth in terms of athleticism and skills in a 4 year period compared to Thomas? Don't think so. Bynum didn't even play against elite level HS competition, unlike Hansbrough, Oden, Derrick Character, and Josh McRoberts.



Sorry, but playing against each other for a couple of games doesn't mean that you're playing at that position. Even if they did view him as a center, you really think he'd be picked ahead of Howard, if they picked him as a center? And I would say that it's a little more embarrasing to be a 19-year old and still get picked behind an 18-year old one. Bynum has an excuse because he was at the same age as Oden. Just because Bynum was smarter, or you could say, the rest were stupider(which include not just Jefferson, but also Oden and Howard), and jumped a grade doesn't mean he should be penalized. And last I checked, being younger allows you more room for growth. So why should he be embarrassed?

Yes, I do remember you predicting Bynum as an 15 and 11 player, but if Bynum put up 15 and 11 next year(unless you somehow convenient think that Jefferson has peaked, in which case, I'll bet next year if he doesn't, you'll say that you knew he was going to do this all along), you'd really think he's going to max out there?
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