15 Game Stats - A More In-Depth Look

 
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PopcornMachine
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 3:33 pm    Post subject: 15 Game Stats - A More In-Depth Look


I thought I would take another look at team stats and +/- after 15 games. This time, in addition to the five man lineups, I wanted to see how the threesomes ranked. This time I also use adjusted +/-, which takes into account how team performs while a player or group of players is out of the game.

Team stats are updated on PopcornMachine.net automatically after every game (once I upload the data, that is).
You can always check them here: http://popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/teamstats.cgi?team=LAL&type=pergame

Here is a summary of scoring and some of the special status I keep track of.
Code:
               pts                   hv                 prod                  eff
Kobe Bryant   26.2   Lamar Odom    11.5    Kobe Bryant   .89   Kobe Bryant   23.8
Lamar Odoom   19.3   Kwame Brown    9.1    Brain Cook    .87   Lamar Odom    22.3
Luke Walton   12.4   Kobe Bryant    8.1    Ronny Turiaf  .82   Luke Walton   15.1
Smush Parker   9.4   Luke Walton    7.9    Lamar Odom    .77   Andrew Bynum  12.1
Anderw Bynum   8.3   Andrew Bynum   7.1    Andrew Bynum  .75   Kwame Brown   11.9
Kwame Brown    7.4   Smush Parker   4.5    Kwame Brown   .69
                                           Luke Walton   .64

    HelpValue      hv = rebounds + assists + steals + blocks - turnovers
    Productivity   prod = (points + hv) / min
    Efficiency     eff = (points + assists + rebounds + steals + blocks + field_goals + free_throws)
                          - (turnovers + attempted_fieldgoals + attempted_freethrows)


Indvidual +/- per game:
Code:
Kwame Brown           8  24.1   6.8
Lamar Odom           15  40.3   4.0
Jordan Farmar        13  17.5   2.4
Kobe Bryant          13  38.7   2.3
Maurice Evans        15  17.0   2.0
Ronny Turiaf         12  10.8   2.0
Shammond Williams     4   8.7   2.0
Smush Parker         15  29.9   0.6
Sasha Vujacic        11   9.6   0.5
Vladimir Radmanovic  15  14.4   0.3
Luke Walton          15  31.6   0.2
Andrew Bynum         15  20.6  -0.3
Biran Cook           10   9.9  -1.4


Individual +/- adjusted per minute and in/out of game. For example, when Lamar is in the game the Lakers have a tenth of a point edge per minute. When he's out they have lost a tenth of a point per minute. His net +/- is 0.20 per minute.
Code:
                         In Game            Out Of Game
                      Min     p   pm     Min     p    pm   Adj pm
Kwame Brown          192.66  53  0.28    527.34  -5 -0.01    0.29
Lamar Odom           603.84  60  0.10    116.16 -12 -0.10    0.20
Shammond Williams     34.75   8  0.23    685.25  40  0.06    0.17
Ronny Turiaf         129.73  24  0.18    590.27  24  0.04    0.14
Jordan Farmar        227.26  31  0.14    492.74  17  0.03    0.11
Maurice Evans        254.94  30  0.12    465.06  18  0.04    0.08
Kobe Bryant          503.33  30  0.06    216.67  18  0.08   -0.02
Sasha Vujacic        106.02   5  0.05    613.98  43  0.07   -0.02
Vladimir Radmanovic  215.76   5  0.02    504.24  43  0.09   -0.07
Andrew Bynum         309.70  -5 -0.02    410.30  53  0.13   -0.15
Smush Parker         448.88   9  0.02    271.12  39  0.14   -0.14
Luke Walton          474.60   3  0.01    245.40  45  0.18   -0.17
Brian Cook            98.53 -13 -0.13    621.47  61  0.10   -0.23


Five man lineups, more than 10 minutes:
Code:
 208.31     2   0.01  Andrew Bynum,Kobe Bryant,Lamar Odom,Luke Walton,Smush Parker
  77.32    10   0.13  Kobe Bryant,Kwame Brown,Lamar Odom,Luke Walton,Smush Parker
  24.47    19   0.78  Andrew Bynum,Lamar Odom,Luke Walton,Maurice Evans,Smush Parker
  21.33    18   0.84  Kobe Bryant,Lamar Odom,Luke Walton,Ronny Turiaf,Smush Parker
  20.02     0   0.00  Brian Cook,Kobe Bryant,Lamar Odom,Luke Walton,Smush Parker
  19.82     4   0.20  Jordan Farmar,Lamar Odom,Maurice Evans,Ronny Turiaf,Vladimir Radmanovic
  15.90     1   0.06  Jordan Farmar,Kwame Brown,Lamar Odom,Maurice Evans,Vladimir Radmanovic
  14.03     6   0.43  Brian Cook,Jordan Farmar,Ronny Turiaf,Shammond Williams,Vladimir Radmanovic
  11.86     9   0.76  Lamar Odom,Luke Walton,Maurice Evans,Ronny Turiaf,Smush Parker


Three man groups, 200 or more minutes:
Code:
                                                                In min   +/-  permin   Out min   +/-  permin      adj
Lamar Odom           Smush Parker         Luke Walton           377.42    40   0.106    342.58     8   0.023     0.083
Kobe Bryant          Lamar Odom           Luke Walton           359.43    27   0.075    360.57    21   0.058     0.017
Kobe Bryant          Smush Parker         Luke Walton           340.01    24   0.071    379.99    24   0.063     0.007
Kobe Bryant          Lamar Odom           Smush Parker          351.45    17   0.048    368.55    31   0.084    -0.036
Andrew Bynum         Lamar Odom           Smush Parker          252.91     9   0.036    467.09    39   0.083    -0.048
Andrew Bynum         Kobe Bryant          Lamar Odom            230.33     2   0.009    489.67    46   0.094    -0.085
Andrew Bynum         Smush Parker         Luke Walton           252.24    -1  -0.004    467.76    49   0.105    -0.109
Andrew Bynum         Kobe Bryant          Luke Walton           231.13    -2  -0.009    488.87    50   0.102    -0.111
Andrew Bynum         Kobe Bryant          Smush Parker          221.61    -3  -0.014    498.39    51   0.102    -0.116
Andrew Bynum         Lamar Odom           Luke Walton           255.85    -3  -0.012    464.15    51   0.110    -0.122


Three man groups, less than 200 and greater than 70 minutes:
Code:
                                                                In min   +/-  permin   Out min   +/-  permin      adj
Lamar Odom           Jordan Farmar        Maurice Evans          98.51    27   0.274    621.49    21   0.034     0.240
Kobe Bryant          Lamar Odom           Kwame Brown           119.70    29   0.242    600.30    19   0.032     0.211
Lamar Odom           Jordan Farmar        Vladimir Radmanovic    74.55    19   0.255    645.45    29   0.045     0.210
Lamar Odom           Maurice Evans        Vladimir Radmanovic    82.23    15   0.182    637.77    33   0.052     0.131
Kobe Bryant          Luke Walton          Kwame Brown            97.54    16   0.164    622.46    32   0.051     0.113
Lamar Odom           Luke Walton          Kwame Brown            88.05    10   0.114    631.95    38   0.060     0.053
Lamar Odom           Smush Parker         Kwame Brown            97.75    10   0.102    622.25    38   0.061     0.041
Kobe Bryant          Smush Parker         Kwame Brown            96.21     7   0.073    623.79    41   0.066     0.007
Smush Parker         Luke Walton          Kwame Brown            82.52     4   0.048    637.48    44   0.069    -0.021
Jordan Farmar        Maurice Evans        Vladimir Radmanovic    91.48     4   0.044    628.52    44   0.070    -0.026


Three man groups, less than 70 and greater than 32 minutes:
Code:
                                                                In min   +/-  permin   Out min   +/-  permin      adj
Kobe Bryant          Kwame Brown          Jordan Farmar          35.25    26   0.738    684.75    22   0.032     0.705
Lamar Odom           Luke Walton          Maurice Evans          50.72    36   0.710    669.28    12   0.018     0.692
Lamar Odom           Luke Walton          Ronny Turiaf           41.03    29   0.707    678.97    19   0.028     0.679
Andrew Bynum         Smush Parker         Maurice Evans          34.25    21   0.613    685.75    27   0.039     0.574
Kobe Bryant          Kwame Brown          Maurice Evans          41.82    24   0.574    678.18    24   0.035     0.538
Kwame Brown          Maurice Evans        Vladimir Radmanovic    51.26    29   0.566    668.74    19   0.028     0.537
Smush Parker         Luke Walton          Ronny Turiaf           39.18    22   0.562    680.82    26   0.038     0.523
Lamar Odom           Smush Parker         Ronny Turiaf           40.01    20   0.500    679.99    28   0.041     0.459
Kobe Bryant          Lamar Odom           Maurice Evans          45.27    22   0.486    674.73    26   0.039     0.447
Kobe Bryant          Luke Walton          Ronny Turiaf           37.95    15   0.395    682.05    33   0.048     0.347
Kobe Bryant          Lamar Odom           Jordan Farmar          57.48    21   0.365    662.52    27   0.041     0.325
Lamar Odom           Smush Parker         Maurice Evans          67.65    23   0.340    652.35    25   0.038     0.302
Lamar Odom           Ronny Turiaf         Maurice Evans          39.96    14   0.350    680.04    34   0.050     0.300
Kwame Brown          Jordan Farmar        Maurice Evans          50.91    17   0.334    669.09    31   0.046     0.288
Lamar Odom           Kwame Brown          Jordan Farmar          45.14    15   0.332    674.86    33   0.049     0.283
Kobe Bryant          Lamar Odom           Ronny Turiaf           35.90    12   0.334    684.10    36   0.053     0.282
Lamar Odom           Jordan Farmar        Sasha Vujacic          35.95    12   0.334    684.05    36   0.053     0.281
Andrew Bynum         Lamar Odom           Maurice Evans          59.87    19   0.317    660.13    29   0.044     0.273
Lamar Odom           Kwame Brown          Maurice Evans          60.67    19   0.313    659.33    29   0.044     0.269
Lamar Odom           Kwame Brown          Vladimir Radmanovic    39.49    12   0.304    680.51    36   0.053     0.251
Jordan Farmar        Vladimir Radmanovic  Brian Cook             45.39    13   0.286    674.61    35   0.052     0.235
Ronny Turiaf         Jordan Farmar        Vladimir Radmanovic    52.21    12   0.230    667.79    36   0.054     0.176
Lamar Odom           Sasha Vujacic        Vladimir Radmanovic    33.01     7   0.212    686.99    41   0.060     0.152
Smush Parker         Luke Walton          Maurice Evans          47.16     9   0.191    672.84    39   0.058     0.133
Ronny Turiaf         Jordan Farmar        Maurice Evans          42.96     8   0.186    677.04    40   0.059     0.127
Kobe Bryant          Jordan Farmar        Maurice Evans          61.34     8   0.130    658.66    40   0.061     0.070
Ronny Turiaf         Maurice Evans        Vladimir Radmanovic    43.47     4   0.092    676.53    44   0.065     0.027
Andrew Bynum         Lamar Odom           Jordan Farmar          32.02    -2  -0.062    687.98    50   0.073    -0.135
Lamar Odom           Luke Walton          Jordan Farmar          40.54    -5  -0.123    679.46    53   0.078    -0.201
Kobe Bryant          Luke Walton          Jordan Farmar          39.21    -5  -0.128    680.79    53   0.078    -0.205
Lamar Odom           Ronny Turiaf         Vladimir Radmanovic    36.43    -7  -0.192    683.57    55   0.080    -0.273
Kobe Bryant          Lamar Odom           Brian Cook             32.60    -7  -0.215    687.40    55   0.080    -0.295
Kobe Bryant          Maurice Evans        Vladimir Radmanovic    37.30   -14  -0.375    682.70    62   0.091    -0.466
Kobe Bryant          Luke Walton          Brian Cook             33.31   -13  -0.390    686.69    61   0.089    -0.479
Kobe Bryant          Jordan Farmar        Vladimir Radmanovic    39.13   -18  -0.460    680.87    66   0.097    -0.557
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HBA
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 6:05 pm    Post subject:

Lets all keep in mind something VERY important when looking at

Kobe Bryant's plus minus folks.

And that is that it is SEVERLY negatively affected by the fact that he missed the first two games the lakers played where they beat the Suns by 8 or 10 points and the Warriors by 11 points. He has only played 70% of all available minutes, where normally, the ratio would be closer to 85%.

It might not seem like much, but +/- is a function of the amount of time spent on the court as well. IF you dont play two full games whereby your team wins by 8 and 11 points, it will take quite a bit of time to recoup that +/- situation BACK to a +.

Kobe is back to a plus now where he currently stands at +2.3, i believe. If you were to have looked at his plus minus before he even played a single minute, it was probably pretty atrocious.
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HBA
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 6:14 pm    Post subject:

http://www.nbcsports.com/nba/501280/detail.html

actually, i just went to 82games.com and clicked the link for +/- ratings and seen some pretty drastic stuff.

Ill let you all look first.

Now, im not understanding something.

Kobe, for example the night agaisnt, I think it was milwaukee where we lost, they spoke about how with Kobe we won 99-89 but withou him it was 20-6 milwaukee.

And then last night's jazz game where hwe CRUSHED them with kobe in the game.

Now, im not so sure anymore. What the hell is going on at 82games.com

I mean, its starting to seem liek THEY TO have kobe bias or something. I mean, are these frekaing guys keeping it real down there or what.

Cause, like i said, if you kept track of just the last two games only, you can see the enormous difference.

AND YET, kobe is ONLY at +1.8. WHAT THE HELL???

Did the first tow games mean THAT Much to his PER. I mean you look at other players, and its a different story completely!
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PopcornMachine
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 6:27 pm    Post subject:

HBA, I think you are over complicating things.

The games Kobe missed don't hurt him at all. No effect whatsoever.

And I don't know about that stuff on nbcsports from 82games.

I can only go by the data that I have. While it isn't gaurunteed to be 100% accurate, it is close enough.

Also, I'm glad the Lakers don't have one player with dominant +/- figures like that. It means you have a bad team.
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HBA
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 6:50 pm    Post subject:

PopcornMachine wrote:
HBA, I think you are over complicating things.

The games Kobe missed don't hurt him at all. No effect whatsoever.

And I don't know about that stuff on nbcsports from 82games.

I can only go by the data that I have. While it isn't gaurunteed to be 100% accurate, it is close enough.

Also, I'm glad the Lakers don't have one player with dominant +/- figures like that. It means you have a bad team.


Actually, kobe not playing does matter.

I remember last year I was keeping track of KObe, LBJ and Wade's +/- all the way through the year.

When LJB sat out a couple games and his team won, it affected his +/- whereby it went down.

And it makes perfect sense. You arent on the floor and your team wins without you.

And furthermore, if it wasnt affecting him, then why is it showing only 70% of minutes played vs. 84% for Lamar. Clearly, its those first two games where the difference lies, because since the first two games, both players have basically played the same number of minutes.
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mbloves L.A.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 7:00 pm    Post subject:

The only math that should be involved in basketball should be the score.
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PopcornMachine
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 7:03 pm    Post subject:

mbloves L.A. wrote:
The only math that should be involved in basketball should be the score.


You're welcome.
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Wolverine
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 7:20 pm    Post subject:

mbloves L.A. wrote:
The only math that should be involved in basketball should be the score.

:roll:
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:23 pm    Post subject:

HBA wrote:
PopcornMachine wrote:


And I don't know about that stuff on nbcsports from 82games.




What you do is invaluable. That said, it sort or surprises me to read the above quote from you, what is "going on" at 82games is both the kind of +/- you are doing (although tracked slightly differently, I imagine) plus the use of those numbers and other things culled from game charting to provide detailed statistical team pictures. That and things like the work of Dan Rosenbaum I would think would interest you greatly. I'm not sure how familiar you are with the growing body of work on NBA statistics out there, +/- and otherwise, but there is no need for you to "reinvent the wheel" on things like your HV. There are more sophisticated tools out there.

Lest you scoff, I can assure you that what you see on 82games.com and in Roland's NBC stories from the site are not his best and most advanced work, that is reserved for the many NBA teams paying for that info.
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PopcornMachine
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:59 pm    Post subject:

Wasn't scoffing. Not at all how I meant it.

Just was confused as those figures didn't agree with mine.

Now I realize that data was a day or two off from mine.

I kind of like my hv. It is very simple, but I find it useful.

Anyway, glad you like my stuff. Any ideas or suggestions would be welcome.
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uberzev
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 03, 2006 12:21 am    Post subject:

Great job as always Pop. Don't worry about those haters.
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DancingBarry
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 03, 2006 2:37 am    Post subject:

Nicely done, Pop.
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bobthomas8
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 03, 2006 2:54 am    Post subject:

word to your mother.
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 03, 2006 6:20 am    Post subject:

Two things I look for after a win or loss is DB's commentary and Pop's gameflow stats.

Thanks guys you make a better and informed Laker fan. Keep up the good work.
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 03, 2006 8:26 am    Post subject:

PopcornMachine wrote:
Wasn't scoffing. Not at all how I meant it.

Just was confused as those figures didn't agree with mine.

Now I realize that data was a day or two off from mine.

I kind of like my hv. It is very simple, but I find it useful.

Anyway, glad you like my stuff. Any ideas or suggestions would be welcome.


82games always is a couple days behind, just do to the volume of info. And having the +/- for groups of five or three is very helpful, more helpful than the individual +/- (which says a lot about who you play with and who you sub for, not just the player). Thanks for that.

You're not the only one who likes HV, the NBA uses something similar on its site. We can discuss whether a rebound is equal to an assist is equal to a block in helping a team win (the basic concept behind weighted +/- and other stats, even flawed systems like Hollinger's). But really, like I said, you just providing the info makes it better for all of us to understand the Lakers and other teams.
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golakersgo121
Franchise Player
Franchise Player


Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Posts: 11717
Location: 8 miles from Staples Center

PostPosted: Sun Dec 03, 2006 9:06 am    Post subject:

PopcornMachine wrote:
mbloves L.A. wrote:
The only math that should be involved in basketball should be the score.


You're welcome.


Pop,

As somebody who understands what it takes to create and maintain database, to upload information at least 82 times a year, and, most importantly, to create meaningful for analyzes formulas using this data I am expressing my huge personal appreciation for what you have done.

Please, don't pay any attention to people who want to know the final score. There are people here who understand and appreciate what you are doing...



GLG
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JerryMagicKobe
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Joined: 28 Jul 2005
Posts: 15100

PostPosted: Sun Dec 03, 2006 2:36 pm    Post subject:

Great to see the stats - I like hv, too and its NOT surprising to see Odom at the top of that, but it IS surprising to see Kwame at #2. Another simple one is points per shot attempt - interesting to compare the scorers in the league, and it is a simple way to do it, and it seems to translate pretty well historically (with Kareem, Magic, Bird, Jordan etc.).
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A Mad Chinaman
Star Player
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Joined: 07 Apr 2005
Posts: 6121

PostPosted: Sun Dec 03, 2006 10:05 pm    Post subject:

Great stat work, as DB has advertised/promoted

Re: Substitution Patterns
Do you have any stats that compares Phil's pattern(s) of substitutions from game to game?

During the Clippers game, it "felt" that Phil was substituting more quickly that allowed the players to play at a higher level - as the result of the Lakers being more talented and deeper this season?

Specifically, it "felt" that Bynum/Farmar had entered the game earlier for Kwame and Smush. It, after some further reveiw, might have parallelled Dunleavy substitution pattern (i.e. subbing in Kaman for Williams - along with Livingston for Cassell)
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