Western Conference Standings: How Do the Lakers Match Up?
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wolfpaclaker
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:41 am    Post subject:

Yinoma, I see this as something where the paper team is not as good as what actually happens, sort of a 180 of last year.

So on paper, only 4 teams are clearly worse than us - OKC, Houston, SAN, Utah.

However, I feel with AD/Bron and now Bev/WB more involved in defense with Ham coming in, we can get our defense better to about 10 in the NBA. And with AD/Bron (and dare I say even WB) we have enough offense to get by. The team won't be exciting by any means, but I feel we should end up better than Sacramento and Portland as well (even though on paper those teams are not bad I mean they have talent). That puts us at around 8th.

So on paper, I think we're a 8th best team type, but here's the thing. I think AD/Lebron push this team a bit to overacheive. They are due. Have had so much bad luck with injuries and then covid as well, this is their first proper camp and season since 2019. Now I know the ages and all that, the supporting cast has changed. However I feel if AD/Lebron avoid big injuries and can play 65sh games, we'll be able to end up 6th in the West and secure a playoff spot.

I can't be as confident as Aeneas becasue I think we lack the wing talent and we still have issues with our best players all needing the ball (AD, Lebron, WB all have 1 ball to share) and we just don't have that much shooting. Guessing here, but I think we end up being 10th on defense and about 15th on offense and that's enough to get into the playoffs IMO.

My concerns? Lebron is one serious injury away (and thus us) from being like 2014-16 Kobe. It's only a matter of time when Lebron "breaks" too. It catches up with everyone. Just think about how small injuries he takes off 10-15 games. A more significant one, and he's toast for the season. Hopefully it won't with Lebron on Laker time. But if it does, we'll be really really bad as we invested 2 more years after this one on him.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:57 am    Post subject:

wolfpaclaker wrote:
Yinoma, I see this as something where the paper team is not as good as what actually happens, sort of a 180 of last year.

So on paper, only 4 teams are clearly worse than us - OKC, Houston, SAN, Utah.

However, I feel with AD/Bron and now Bev/WB more involved in defense with Ham coming in, we can get our defense better to about 10 in the NBA. And with AD/Bron (and dare I say even WB) we have enough offense to get by. The team won't be exciting by any means, but I feel we should end up better than Sacramento and Portland as well (even though on paper those teams are not bad I mean they have talent). That puts us at around 8th.

So on paper, I think we're a 8th best team type, but here's the thing. I think AD/Lebron push this team a bit to overacheive. They are due. Have had so much bad luck with injuries and then covid as well, this is their first proper camp and season since 2019. Now I know the ages and all that, the supporting cast has changed. However I feel if AD/Lebron avoid big injuries and can play 65sh games, we'll be able to end up 6th in the West and secure a playoff spot.

I can't be as confident as Aeneas becasue I think we lack the wing talent and we still have issues with our best players all needing the ball (AD, Lebron, WB all have 1 ball to share) and we just don't have that much shooting. Guessing here, but I think we end up being 10th on defense and about 15th on offense and that's enough to get into the playoffs IMO.

My concerns? Lebron is one serious injury away (and thus us) from being like 2014-16 Kobe. It's only a matter of time when Lebron "breaks" too. It catches up with everyone. Just think about how small injuries he takes off 10-15 games. A more significant one, and he's toast for the season. Hopefully it won't with Lebron on Laker time. But if it does, we'll be really really bad as we invested 2 more years after this one on him.


Bear in mind, if Russ/Bev start, you are relying on 3 perimeter players who are all 34 or older by November. I'm particularly concerned with Bev overexerting himself guarding bigger wings, and he has injury concerns and misses quite a few games. I still have them around the 8-10 range with this current roster. I'm hoping we will make a trade, ahem, but if they don't, they will be fighting against a lot of improved Western Conference teams.

I think top 10 defense is a bit of an overreach. Bryant isn't known as a very good defender, and Russ, well, it's all theoretical right now. I think we can realistically reach 16-19 level defense, as our lack of size will be taxing on our team IMO over the long haul.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:59 am    Post subject:

Also Wolf, it's not a matter of whether we think the Lakers are better than Blazers/Kings (as I have them being better), but whether we are better than the Wolves, Warriors, Grizz, Mavs, Pels. I think those teams are deeper and better than us, ergo, my 9th ranking. Only if Luka goes down, do I think the Lakers creep up to 8.
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wolfpaclaker
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:03 am    Post subject:

Yinoma even with last year's horrendous roster of defenders when AD was playing the team was top 10 in D. Around 10th. He was just injured a lot. When you have AD you have your defensive MVP right there. I am basing a lot on AD being able to stay healthy for 65 games. He's due.

As for the other point, you are right on paper those teams Suns/Warriors/Clips/Wolves/Nuggets/Pels all better. But there's always injuries. I expect one of those 6 teams to suffer some injuries to key players that pushes them way down (has been the Clips the last few years).
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:15 am    Post subject:

wolfpaclaker wrote:
Yinoma even with last year's horrendous roster of defenders when AD was playing the team was top 10 in D. Around 10th. He was just injured a lot. When you have AD you have your defensive MVP right there. I am basing a lot on AD being able to stay healthy for 65 games. He's due.

As for the other point, you are right on paper those teams Suns/Warriors/Clips/Wolves/Nuggets/Pels all better. But there's always injuries. I expect one of those 6 teams to suffer some injuries to key players that pushes them way down (has been the Clips the last few years).


I'm not sure it's fair to assume injuries for those teams but discount LBJ/AD, who have been injured quite a lot (and are another year older). Structurally, the teams I listed have younger stars, depth, and personnel that are cohesive and make sense. Lakers, not so much.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:27 am    Post subject:

I don't like the Lakers roster all that much, but I disagree with the west being strong in general. I think last year was one of the weakest seasons I've ever seen for the NBA overall. When you're talking about teams like the Pelicans and T-Wolves, I see teams that can possibly take a step up and finally be good, or they can do what they've always done for most of their franchise history and disappoint, and neither would surprise me. The Nuggets are as paper a tiger as anyone has ever been, but sure, might perform well in the regular season. I have no idea what to expect from the Clippers because they seem in basically the same boat as the Lakers, way better if their top old guys stay healthy, but fall of a cliff very quickly if they don't. The Suns could end up with 65 wins or 45 wins and not surprise me either way. The Grizzlies and Mavericks seem most predictable in the 50-55 range, but still not world beaters. The Warriors are legitimate, but outside of that top 4, it looks like a free-for-all to me.

Fans seem shellshocked by last year's debacle and don't believe in reversion to the mean for whatever reason. This team isn't a title contender, and it's disappointing that Westbrook is still here, but take him off the team completely and it's still not much different than the 2003 Lakers that had two top 5 players, but terrible depth and holes all over the roster, giving significant minutes to guys like Samaki Walker and Mark Madsen. They got bounced quickly and easily in the 2nd round and never looked like a contender, but still won 50 games. There isn't much excuse for a team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis to be a 10 seed unless those guys are playing fewer than 45 games each. Maybe that happens, but if they're ever going to be healthy for most of a season, a season following a year where they got a ton of rest and didn't even make the playoffs seems like the best bet for when that will be.
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danzag
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:30 am    Post subject:

Play-in team
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LakerSD
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:35 am    Post subject:

Ceiling is like 6 seed and thatโ€™s if AD decides he wants to be a top 5 player.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:39 am    Post subject:

loseyourname wrote:
I don't like the Lakers roster all that much, but I disagree with the west being strong in general. I think last year was one of the weakest seasons I've ever seen for the NBA overall. When you're talking about teams like the Pelicans and T-Wolves, I see teams that can possibly take a step up and finally be good, or they can do what they've always done for most of their franchise history and disappoint, and neither would surprise me. The Nuggets are as paper a tiger as anyone has ever been, but sure, might perform well in the regular season. I have no idea what to expect from the Clippers because they seem in basically the same boat as the Lakers, way better if their top old guys stay healthy, but fall of a cliff very quickly if they don't. The Suns could end up with 65 wins or 45 wins and not surprise me either way. The Grizzlies and Mavericks seem most predictable in the 50-55 range, but still not world beaters. The Warriors are legitimate, but outside of that top 4, it looks like a free-for-all to me.

Fans seem shellshocked by last year's debacle and don't believe in reversion to the mean for whatever reason. This team isn't a title contender, and it's disappointing that Westbrook is still here, but take him off the team completely and it's still not much different than the 2003 Lakers that had two top 5 players, but terrible depth and holes all over the roster, giving significant minutes to guys like Samaki Walker and Mark Madsen. They got bounced quickly and easily in the 2nd round and never looked like a contender, but still won 50 games. There isn't much excuse for a team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis to be a 10 seed unless those guys are playing fewer than 45 games each. Maybe that happens, but if they're ever going to be healthy for most of a season, a season following a year where they got a ton of rest and didn't even make the playoffs seems like the best bet for when that will be.


It's all relative though. Did the Lakers improve that much more than other teams? I say no.

-Nuggets (Murray/Porter back, traded for KCP and signed Brown). I think they can compete for the Western Conference.
-TWolves (Gobert). I think they will be a monster regular season team. For regular season games, most teams will not have the size to handle KAT/Gobert. Playoffs are a different story. They added Slo Mo who was a great pick up and Edwards will only get better.
-Pels (Zion coming back, CJ re-signing)
-Clips (Kawhi back. Their depth is ridiculous).
-Blazers (Jerami Grant, Dame healed up).

I just don't think we improved enough this offseason to beat them as currently constructed. I think we will be a team that is more competitive and doesn't give up. But other teams have improved IMO to be further ahead of the Lakers. I'm hoping we can make a trade and address our glut of small guards. That would help.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:06 am    Post subject:

Pels and Clips got better or healthier than last year. We're basically aiming for play-in spot. Is it fair to assume that high end of expectation is play-in and low end is lotto team?

Zion getting healthy is really bad news for Laker fans though since we need the Pels to suck this year. I hope they don't win the West and swap their 29th pick with us or something. F that.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:38 am    Post subject:

wolfpaclaker wrote:
I can't be as confident as Aeneas becasue I think we lack the wing talent and we still have issues with our best players all needing the ball (AD, Lebron, WB all have 1 ball to share) and we just don't have that much shooting. Guessing here, but I think we end up being 10th on defense and about 15th on offense and that's enough to get into the playoffs IMO.


A couple things here.

First, finishing fourth (which is my prediction) is not really a positive prediction for a team with three all-time top-75 players and a heavy luxury tax bill. If I'm right, it doesn't mean that we're a contender or even that we would win the first-round playoff series. I just think that we'll be a better regular season team than a lot of us expect.

Second, it is common in sports to focus on what a player or team can't do or isn't good at, while giving less weight to the things that the team does well. I'm drinking the Kool-Aid when Ham says that he is going to greatly improve our defense, even if our wing defenders are less than ideal. There is a lot more to defense than one-on-one matchups. We'll get a boost just from the relative youth and energy. And then we have Lebron, Davis, and (yes) Westbrook to drive the offense. Again, I'm drinking the Kool-Aid when Ham says that he can make it work. But really, if you can shed the negativity from last season for just a moment, there is a LOT of talent on this roster.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:51 am    Post subject:

Top 4 easy.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:12 am    Post subject:

FYI, 4th in the Western Conference was Dallas at 52-30.

We finished 33-49. So does this look like a team that has basically improved 20 wins?
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:16 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
FYI, 4th in the Western Conference was Dallas at 52-30.

We finished 33-49. So does this look like a team that has basically improved 20 wins?


At the end of the day, either you or me will be saying "I was wrong" by the all star break.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:20 am    Post subject:

epic_ wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
FYI, 4th in the Western Conference was Dallas at 52-30.

We finished 33-49. So does this look like a team that has basically improved 20 wins?


At the end of the day, either you or me will be saying "I was wrong" by the all star break.


I would love to be wrong. But taking a look at our competition and the moves they made (and the ones we didn't), I have a hard time seeing a +20 wins team with a new coach.

Still hoping that this is not our final roster.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:21 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
epic_ wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
FYI, 4th in the Western Conference was Dallas at 52-30.

We finished 33-49. So does this look like a team that has basically improved 20 wins?


At the end of the day, either you or me will be saying "I was wrong" by the all star break.


I would love to be wrong. But taking a look at our competition and the moves they made (and the ones we didn't), I have a hard time seeing a +20 wins team with a new coach.

Still hoping that this is not our final roster.


I would love to be right
That being said, if either AD and Bron go down, we're meat anyways.

IMO the roster is much improved. Here's a list of reasons why, not in any particular order:
1. Better defensively: no more Monk, Melo and Jordan crapping the bed on defense. Better rim protectors and better perimeter defenders.
2. AR playing from the get go.
3. AD and Bron coming off of long rest and healthy.
4. Better guards where we don't have to rely on Russ with Dennis, Pat and hopefully a healthy Nunn.
5. Younger and athletic.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:34 am    Post subject:

epic_ wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
epic_ wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
FYI, 4th in the Western Conference was Dallas at 52-30.

We finished 33-49. So does this look like a team that has basically improved 20 wins?


At the end of the day, either you or me will be saying "I was wrong" by the all star break.


I would love to be wrong. But taking a look at our competition and the moves they made (and the ones we didn't), I have a hard time seeing a +20 wins team with a new coach.

Still hoping that this is not our final roster.


I would love to be right
That being said, if either AD and Bron go down, we're meat anyways.

IMO the roster is much improved. Here's a list of reasons why, not in any particular order:
1. Better defensively: no more Monk, Melo and Jordan crapping the bed on defense. Better rim protectors and better perimeter defenders.
2. AR playing from the get go.
3. AD and Bron coming off of long rest and healthy.
4. Better guards where we don't have to rely on Russ with Dennis, Pat and hopefully a healthy Nunn.
5. Younger and athletic.


I can see us being better than 33-49, 11th place. But jumping 20 wins with a rookie coach and flawed roster, I don't see that far.

AR is going to lose some minutes until we get the Russ trade situation handled, as we have literally too many PG sized guards that may steal his SG minutes.

Re: AD/LBJ, they had a pretty long layoff after 20-21 being bounced in round 1 and we hit the same injury issues. That's just the territory with an aging LBJ and AD.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:28 am    Post subject:

I see people doubting the Wolves. I would not be shocked if they were top 4
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:33 am    Post subject:

defense wrote:
I see people doubting the Wolves. I would not be shocked if they were top 4


They are built to be a quintessential great regular season team.

They have two all star bigs, a rising star in Edwards, DLO, and a plethora of big wings.

We are so small compared to that team. I think Wolves will miss Bev though but Gobert offers a different layer of defense for that team.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:00 pm    Post subject:

defense wrote:
I see people doubting the Wolves. I would not be shocked if they were top 4


I could see it going either way for them. Thereโ€™s not a great history with two centers playing together.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:06 pm    Post subject:

ocho wrote:
defense wrote:
I see people doubting the Wolves. I would not be shocked if they were top 4


I could see it going either way for them. Thereโ€™s not a great history with two centers playing together.


Right. But KAT is pretty much an elite shooter, so on offense, it'll work. And Rudy just erases so many defensive mistakes.

But then again, when's the last time having such a tiny backcourt like ours worked?
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:07 pm    Post subject:

10-12 easily.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:18 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
ocho wrote:
defense wrote:
I see people doubting the Wolves. I would not be shocked if they were top 4


I could see it going either way for them. Thereโ€™s not a great history with two centers playing together.


Right. But KAT is pretty much an elite shooter, so on offense, it'll work. And Rudy just erases so many defensive mistakes.

But then again, when's the last time having such a tiny backcourt like ours worked?


Iโ€™ll be interested to see their speed defensively. Admittedly, Iโ€™ve never quite understood the hype train around Gobert. Gobert also reportedly wants more of an expanded role on offense and itโ€™s difficult to see him being anywhere better than fourth at the bowl. Thereโ€™s a path where it clicks and itโ€™s great but I could see it going the other way.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:46 pm    Post subject:

In my view, the Warriors, Clippers, and Suns are definitively better than the Lakers and the Kings, Blazers, Jazz, Spurs, Rockets, and Thunder are assuredly worse.

This puts the Lakers somewhere between 4th and 9th.

However, I'm confident that the Nuggets will have a better record if Murray and MPJ return to form early in the season. This would put the Lakers at 5th.

But what about the Grizzlies, Wolves, Mavs, and Pelicans?

JJJ being potentially out until January (though there's optimism he'll return earlier) could indicate a step back for the Grizzlies, and young teams like the Grizzlies frequently struggle after breakthrough seasons because they can no longer sneak up on their opponents. The Wolves could be an excellent regular season team, though I can see the team struggling to adjust to Gobert in their first year together. The Mavs lost their second best player in free agency and rely a lot on fringe players, so their fate is squarely on the back of Luka and how dominant he can be. The Pelicans are a super exciting and intriguing team, but I can also see periods of struggle as they figure out the dynamic between Zion and Ingram.

So, optimistically, I would place the Lakers as the 5th seed if many factors go right (LeBron/AD health, Russ buys in, and 2-3 of the FA signings pop). Most likely, the Lakers land at 7th, since I think two of the four of the Grizzlies, Wolves, Mavs, and Pelicans will either reach or exceed expectations.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:06 pm    Post subject:

epic_ wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
epic_ wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
FYI, 4th in the Western Conference was Dallas at 52-30.

We finished 33-49. So does this look like a team that has basically improved 20 wins?


At the end of the day, either you or me will be saying "I was wrong" by the all star break.


I would love to be wrong. But taking a look at our competition and the moves they made (and the ones we didn't), I have a hard time seeing a +20 wins team with a new coach.

Still hoping that this is not our final roster.


I would love to be right
That being said, if either AD and Bron go down, we're meat anyways.

IMO the roster is much improved. Here's a list of reasons why, not in any particular order:
1. Better defensively: no more Monk, Melo and Jordan crapping the bed on defense. Better rim protectors and better perimeter defenders.
2. AR playing from the get go.
3. AD and Bron coming off of long rest and healthy.
4. Better guards where we don't have to rely on Russ with Dennis, Pat and hopefully a healthy Nunn.
5. Younger and athletic.


Quote:
Anthony Davis:

โ€œThatโ€™s where weโ€™ll be at our strongest, defensively. Iโ€™m going to demand we stay committed and lead on that end, as well. I love playing defense. I think youโ€™ll see a much different Lakers team, and I canโ€™t wait to get out there.โ€

(via @ChrisBHaynes)


The foundation for competing at the very least.
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