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pjiddy
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 Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 11:56 am Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | ArminNBA wrote: | I can’t see Ainge passing up on the Wemby sweepstakes. Yes, it was time for the Mitchell/Gobert era to end and the Jazz to restart, but there’s no doubt that Ainge was also ecstatic that this rebuild timed perfectly with the Wemby draft. (Also, as many have noted already, Mitchell is dominating and there is no reason Ainge couldn’t have done a soft rebuild around Mitchell who was still under contract for three more years — the potential for Wemby + a deep draft class aside from Wemby played a role).
Some reporters have speculated that a sell-off in Utah could be in the works, though the hot start has made that tricky since it’s difficult to intentionally dismantle a team that is winning not only games but the hearts of fans.
Let’s say the 12-8 Jazz end up 16-16 and it becomes more and more feasible for Ainge to steer the ship into the iceberg, as planned.
What do y’all think of:
Russell Westbrook/Top-3 protected 2027 FRP that becomes unprotected in 2028 if it doesn’t convey in 2027
FOR
Lauri Markkanen/Kelly Olynyk/Malik Beasley
Lakers would get the size and shooting that they so desperately need. I honestly have no idea if Ainge would accept this trade with only 1 FRP. If I were Pelinka, my argument would essentially be that offloading these useful players helps the Jazz get into the Wemby sweepstakes, more valuable than any future pick, especially one 6 years into the future, AND that, frankly, only Lauri could command an FRP at this point. No team is trading more than a 2nd for either Olynyk or Beasley. If Ainge insists, the Lakers could add a 2nd round draft pick.
Do y’all like this deal? Think it’s possible? Think there are better options out there in terms of using the Russ + FRPs and that the Lakers should wait?
With how Anthony Davis is playing and with the promise of some of the other rotational players like Lonnie and Austin, I would love the Lakers to add size and shooting to this team ASAP, especially if it only costs a single FRP. I think this team could make the playoffs and be fun to watch. |
If I can get in the lottery sweepstakes with Markkanen and Beasley why would I bother with Westbrook? The Jazz have a plethora of upcoming picks so why not keep legit talent to play with them? If salaries become an issue down the line you deal with it then. A top 3 protected FRP in 2027 has little value to the Jazz, maybe more to a team that isn’t rich in upcoming picks. |
A lakers 2027 will gain in value while Lauri's will depress as he nears his next contract (and his deal will be up in the next mega-salary era). He doesn't have to keep it as a pick--he can use it to package with a slew of other picks to acquire a franchise-level player to pair with Wemby/Scoot.
Having a merely decent team around a player like Wemby or Scoot could put the Jazz in the same boat Dallas is in, where it's not clear who the 2nd best player is after Luka and they mire in upper-tier mediocrity. New GMs have the leash to be bad for a few years and accrue multiple lottery talents and I can see that appealing to Ainge.
Utah could also be in position to rehab Westbrook's trade value. He'll have way more shooting around him and Hardy is proving a gifted offensive mind. They could possibly flip him again to a team looking to unload a longterm contract or two and turn Russell into even more assets. |
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activeverb
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Joined: 17 Jun 2006
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 12:16 pm Post subject: |
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| pjiddy wrote: | | venturalakersfan wrote: | | ArminNBA wrote: | I can’t see Ainge passing up on the Wemby sweepstakes. Yes, it was time for the Mitchell/Gobert era to end and the Jazz to restart, but there’s no doubt that Ainge was also ecstatic that this rebuild timed perfectly with the Wemby draft. (Also, as many have noted already, Mitchell is dominating and there is no reason Ainge couldn’t have done a soft rebuild around Mitchell who was still under contract for three more years — the potential for Wemby + a deep draft class aside from Wemby played a role).
Some reporters have speculated that a sell-off in Utah could be in the works, though the hot start has made that tricky since it’s difficult to intentionally dismantle a team that is winning not only games but the hearts of fans.
Let’s say the 12-8 Jazz end up 16-16 and it becomes more and more feasible for Ainge to steer the ship into the iceberg, as planned.
What do y’all think of:
Russell Westbrook/Top-3 protected 2027 FRP that becomes unprotected in 2028 if it doesn’t convey in 2027
FOR
Lauri Markkanen/Kelly Olynyk/Malik Beasley
Lakers would get the size and shooting that they so desperately need. I honestly have no idea if Ainge would accept this trade with only 1 FRP. If I were Pelinka, my argument would essentially be that offloading these useful players helps the Jazz get into the Wemby sweepstakes, more valuable than any future pick, especially one 6 years into the future, AND that, frankly, only Lauri could command an FRP at this point. No team is trading more than a 2nd for either Olynyk or Beasley. If Ainge insists, the Lakers could add a 2nd round draft pick.
Do y’all like this deal? Think it’s possible? Think there are better options out there in terms of using the Russ + FRPs and that the Lakers should wait?
With how Anthony Davis is playing and with the promise of some of the other rotational players like Lonnie and Austin, I would love the Lakers to add size and shooting to this team ASAP, especially if it only costs a single FRP. I think this team could make the playoffs and be fun to watch. |
If I can get in the lottery sweepstakes with Markkanen and Beasley why would I bother with Westbrook? The Jazz have a plethora of upcoming picks so why not keep legit talent to play with them? If salaries become an issue down the line you deal with it then. A top 3 protected FRP in 2027 has little value to the Jazz, maybe more to a team that isn’t rich in upcoming picks. |
A lakers 2027 will gain in value while Lauri's will depress as he nears his next contract (and his deal will be up in the next mega-salary era). He doesn't have to keep it as a pick--he can use it to package with a slew of other picks to acquire a franchise-level player to pair with Wemby/Scoot.
Having a merely decent team around a player like Wemby or Scoot could put the Jazz in the same boat Dallas is in, where it's not clear who the 2nd best player is after Luka and they mire in upper-tier mediocrity. New GMs have the leash to be bad for a few years and accrue multiple lottery talents and I can see that appealing to Ainge.
Utah could also be in position to rehab Westbrook's trade value. He'll have way more shooting around him and Hardy is proving a gifted offensive mind. They could possibly flip him again to a team looking to unload a longterm contract or two and turn Russell into even more assets. |
The Jazz aren't going to give away a good, young player like Lauri just to worsen their record and get a tiny chance at the #1 pick. The tankafon fantasy isn't happening. They'll trade their older players for value; Lauri is a keeper for them.
Westbrook's trade value isn't going to suddenly go up. The Jazz doesn't need more expiring contracts to trade. They have Beasley at $15 million, as well as Conley ($24 million) and Olynyk ($12 million), which are only partially guaranteed for next season. |
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andree
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 12:24 pm Post subject: |
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Westbrook for Rozier, Hayward, McDaniels. No picks involved. We take here 2 longer contracts and Westbrook expiring contract gives Hornets enough room to resign their younger prospects (Bridges, Washington, Lamelo). Usually I would say, Lakers could ask for a pick because longer contracts, but let it without picks involved.
We have Nunn and Beverly and those 2 picks, if we want other moves.
Nunn and Beverly plus any combination of picks for Vanderbild and Beasley. This is an example. We counld find other. |
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 12:24 pm Post subject: |
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| ArminNBA wrote: | | I can’t see Ainge passing up on the Wemby sweepstakes. |
I won't belabor this, because we've been through it before. You're saying that he's going to tank a potential playoff team in hopes of losing enough games to get a 14% chance at Wembanyama. Ainge would need to move additional players, including Clarkson, to lose enough games to get within range of the Rockets, Spurs, Magic, and Pistons. He would need to explain to the paying customers that watching THT launch bricks is worth the price of admission. Even then, the Jazz might not manage to lose enough. They might wind up with a 9-10% chance, or worse.
It's not literally impossible that Ainge would entertain this idea, but if he did, he would expect a better return than a protected first round pick in five years. I doubt that both of our picks would be enough even if unprotected.
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andree
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 12:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | ArminNBA wrote: | | I can’t see Ainge passing up on the Wemby sweepstakes. |
I won't belabor this, because we've been through it before. You're saying that he's going to tank a potential playoff team in hopes of losing enough games to get a 14% chance at Wembanyama. Ainge would need to move additional players, including Clarkson, to lose enough games to get within range of the Rockets, Spurs, Magic, and Pistons. He would need to explain to the paying customers that watching THT launch bricks is worth the price of admission. Even then, the Jazz might not manage to lose enough. They might wind up with a 9-10% chance, or worse.
It's not literally impossible that Ainge would entertain this idea, but if he did, he would expect a better return than a protected first round pick in five years. I doubt that both of our picks would be enough even if unprotected. |
Still, I could see Ainge doing this. Otherwise why destroy a respectable, playoff team to start the reconstruction. And it's not only Wembanyama. Ainge has a reputation for finding good players in the draft.
This Utah may be a good team, but even Ainge and all other know that will not do better that the team he dismantled. To be in the NBA purgatory (not good enough for high playoffs battle, nor bad enough for high picks) is the worst situation. |
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Bron2AD
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 12:36 pm Post subject: |
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| andree wrote: | Westbrook for Rozier, Hayward, McDaniels. No picks involved. We take here 2 longer contracts and Westbrook expiring contract gives Hornets enough room to resign their younger prospects (Bridges, Washington, Lamelo). Usually I would say, Lakers could ask for a pick because longer contracts, but let it without picks involved.
We have Nunn and Beverly and those 2 picks, if we want other moves.
Nunn and Beverly plus any combination of picks for Vanderbild and Beasley. This is an example. We counld find other. |
Hayward is out indefinitely. I doubt we take his contract |
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Lakersfan1211
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 12:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Dennis100mtrash wrote: | | Quote: | The Wizards, Clippers and Mavericks may be among the teams interested in Saddiq Bey, per @AmicoHoops
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I’d give up a 1st for Saddiq |
Clippers tryna hog all the 3&D wings. |
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LakerDYnasty72
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 12:44 pm Post subject: |
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| Lakersfan1211 wrote: | | Dennis100mtrash wrote: | | Quote: | The Wizards, Clippers and Mavericks may be among the teams interested in Saddiq Bey, per @AmicoHoops
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I’d give up a 1st for Saddiq |
Clippers tryna hog all the 3&D wings. |
And they're doing a masterful job because they have the ability to manage their cap to take advantage of opportunities when they arise. Our front office? We lost our ultimate flexibility with the RW trade. |
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levon
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 1:03 pm Post subject: |
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Saddiq Bey is neither 3 nor D.
Also, the Jazz are way past tankathon. I think it's impossible for them to be in the mix at this point. I think they're going the Clippers rebuilding route: lots of good scrappy players and draft picks to land the next star or two. |
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activeverb
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 1:19 pm Post subject: |
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| andree wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | ArminNBA wrote: | | I can’t see Ainge passing up on the Wemby sweepstakes. |
I won't belabor this, because we've been through it before. You're saying that he's going to tank a potential playoff team in hopes of losing enough games to get a 14% chance at Wembanyama. Ainge would need to move additional players, including Clarkson, to lose enough games to get within range of the Rockets, Spurs, Magic, and Pistons. He would need to explain to the paying customers that watching THT launch bricks is worth the price of admission. Even then, the Jazz might not manage to lose enough. They might wind up with a 9-10% chance, or worse.
It's not literally impossible that Ainge would entertain this idea, but if he did, he would expect a better return than a protected first round pick in five years. I doubt that both of our picks would be enough even if unprotected. |
Still, I could see Ainge doing this. Otherwise why destroy a respectable, playoff team to start the reconstruction. And it's not only Wembanyama. Ainge has a reputation for finding good players in the draft.
This Utah may be a good team, but even Ainge and all other know that will not do better that the team he dismantled. To be in the NBA purgatory (not good enough for high playoffs battle, nor bad enough for high picks) is the worst situation. |
Again, this scenario seems highly unlike. Lauri is a 25-year-old veteran who looks like he might be approaching the stardom people long predicted for him. If the Jazz tank and get a lottery pick, the odds are they wouldn't end up with a player as good as Lauri is now.
In any case, if the Jazz did decide to tank, it's unlikely that Westbrook and our 2 FRPs are the best offer they could get for Lauri.
The Lakers getting Lauri is a fun something-for-nothing fantasy, but that's all it is. |
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activeverb
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 1:33 pm Post subject: |
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| Dennis100mtrash"[quote="andree wrote: | | Westbrook for Rozier, Hayward, McDaniels. No picks involved. We take here 2 longer contracts and Westbrook expiring contract gives Hornets enough room to resign their younger prospects (Bridges, Washington, Lamelo). Usually I would say, Lakers could ask for a pick because longer contracts, but let it without picks involved. |
I doubt the Lakers take on $54 million in contracts for Rozier and Hayward. Besides the tax implication, that would remove the cap space we'd need to resign Walker and potentially Reaves. Given Hayward's injury history, I doubt we will want to spend cap space on him, even for free. |
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ArminNBA
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Joined: 20 Sep 2008
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 1:40 pm Post subject: |
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| andree wrote: | | ArminNBA wrote: | I can’t see Ainge passing up on the Wemby sweepstakes. Yes, it was time for the Mitchell/Gobert era to end and the Jazz to restart, but there’s no doubt that Ainge was also ecstatic that this rebuild timed perfectly with the Wemby draft. (Also, as many have noted already, Mitchell is dominating and there is no reason Ainge couldn’t have done a soft rebuild around Mitchell who was still under contract for three more years — the potential for Wemby + a deep draft class aside from Wemby played a role).
Some reporters have speculated that a sell-off in Utah could be in the works, though the hot start has made that tricky since it’s difficult to intentionally dismantle a team that is winning not only games but the hearts of fans.
Let’s say the 12-8 Jazz end up 16-16 and it becomes more and more feasible for Ainge to steer the ship into the iceberg, as planned.
What do y’all think of:
Russell Westbrook/Top-3 protected 2027 FRP that becomes unprotected in 2028 if it doesn’t convey in 2027
FOR
Lauri Markkanen/Kelly Olynyk/Malik Beasley
Lakers would get the size and shooting that they so desperately need. I honestly have no idea if Ainge would accept this trade with only 1 FRP. If I were Pelinka, my argument would essentially be that offloading these useful players helps the Jazz get into the Wemby sweepstakes, more valuable than any future pick, especially one 6 years into the future, AND that, frankly, only Lauri could command an FRP at this point. No team is trading more than a 2nd for either Olynyk or Beasley. If Ainge insists, the Lakers could add a 2nd round draft pick.
Do y’all like this deal? Think it’s possible? Think there are better options out there in terms of using the Russ + FRPs and that the Lakers should wait?
With how Anthony Davis is playing and with the promise of some of the other rotational players like Lonnie and Austin, I would love the Lakers to add size and shooting to this team ASAP, especially if it only costs a single FRP. I think this team could make the playoffs and be fun to watch. |
Look here:
https://www.slcdunk.com/2022/11/18/23465035/trade-ideas-for-the-utah-jazz-rumors-los-angeles-lakers-russell-westbrook-golden-state-warriors
What you propose but with small modifications!! 
It's not Lauri (their best player) but Conley. And a not protected 1 FRP, but 2 unprotected FRP.
Let`s be serious. Your idea is completely delusional from their perspective. It made no sense. |
Lauri was traded to Cleveland for a lottery protected 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick. He had an OK year in Cleveland and was a throw-in for salary purposes in the Donovan Mitchell trade.
Do you really believe that 20 games of great basketball has turned Lauri into a 2 FRP player? That’s not how the NBA trade market works. For one, not all of the 29 other teams are interested in him (we can easily cross off Chicago and Cleveland lol). Second, many teams do not have the appropriate contracts to match salary/contracts they’re willing to trade to execute the deal. The market isn’t robust simply because Lauri has had a nice 1/4th of a single season.
As has been heavily reported, executives highly value the Lakers 2027 pick. Probably because it seems likely that LeBron and AD will fall off or leave the team by 2025 or 2026 and the Lakers will be in a full rebuild in that exact year?
Maybe the pick has to be unprotected, but a Top-3 protection is light. There isn’t one GM in the NBA that wouldn’t trade Lauri for the 4th pick in any draft. He’s 25 years old and will be up for a giant new contract soon. NBA teams value cost-controlled and team-controlled rookies.
In addition, Ainge’s MO has been clear from Day 1. Stack the assets up high. He wants to draft Wemby or Scoot, then use the draft capital to flank them with young talent. |
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ArminNBA
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 1:49 pm Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | | andree wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | ArminNBA wrote: | | I can’t see Ainge passing up on the Wemby sweepstakes. |
I won't belabor this, because we've been through it before. You're saying that he's going to tank a potential playoff team in hopes of losing enough games to get a 14% chance at Wembanyama. Ainge would need to move additional players, including Clarkson, to lose enough games to get within range of the Rockets, Spurs, Magic, and Pistons. He would need to explain to the paying customers that watching THT launch bricks is worth the price of admission. Even then, the Jazz might not manage to lose enough. They might wind up with a 9-10% chance, or worse.
It's not literally impossible that Ainge would entertain this idea, but if he did, he would expect a better return than a protected first round pick in five years. I doubt that both of our picks would be enough even if unprotected. |
Still, I could see Ainge doing this. Otherwise why destroy a respectable, playoff team to start the reconstruction. And it's not only Wembanyama. Ainge has a reputation for finding good players in the draft.
This Utah may be a good team, but even Ainge and all other know that will not do better that the team he dismantled. To be in the NBA purgatory (not good enough for high playoffs battle, nor bad enough for high picks) is the worst situation. |
Again, this scenario seems highly unlike. Lauri is a 25-year-old veteran who looks like he might be approaching the stardom people long predicted for him. If the Jazz tank and get a lottery pick, the odds are they wouldn't end up with a player as good as Lauri is now.
In any case, if the Jazz did decide to tank, it's unlikely that Westbrook and our 2 FRPs are the best offer they could get for Lauri.
The Lakers getting Lauri is a fun something-for-nothing fantasy, but that's all it is. |
Do you really believe Lauri’s value is that of Dejounte Murray’s? Murray was traded for 3 FRPs. Murray had two very good seasons, including an All-Star season, and was consistently improving his game. The Hawks’ bet has borne out as Murray is producing yet another great season.
Lauri has had a great 20 games, but NBA executives don’t forget easily. He fell out of favor in an ugly way in Chicago. That relationship grew sour and, from what has been reported, Chicago didn’t really understand why Lauri became so bitter because he wouldn’t communicate with them at all.
More than 2 FRPs for Lauri? Personally, I’d be shocked, but then again, the NBA shocks.
Maybe Lauri can net 2 FRPs. I concede that. (Though I doubt without protections.) I’m not even sure the Lakers are interested in Lauri. They seem to be holding onto these picks for something they perceive to be significantly better than Hield/Turner.
Anyway, if the Lakers are interested at some point and Ainge has a window to sell off (eg a Jazz slump), then I believe the Lakers will be in the negotiating mix. |
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activeverb
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 2:11 pm Post subject: |
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| ArminNBA wrote: |
Do you really believe Lauri’s value is that of Dejounte Murray’s? Murray was traded for 3 FRPs. Murray had two very good seasons, including an All-Star season, and was consistently improving his game. The Hawks’ bet has borne out as Murray is producing yet another great season.
Lauri has had a great 20 games, but NBA executives don’t forget easily. He fell out of favor in an ugly way in Chicago. That relationship grew sour and, from what has been reported, Chicago didn’t really understand why Lauri became so bitter because he wouldn’t communicate with them at all.
More than 2 FRPs for Lauri? Personally, I’d be shocked, but then again, the NBA shocks.
Maybe Lauri can net 2 FRPs. I concede that. (Though I doubt without protections.) I’m not even sure the Lakers are interested in Lauri. They seem to be holding onto these picks for something they perceive to be significantly better than Hield/Turner.
Anyway, if the Lakers are interested at some point and Ainge has a window to sell off (eg a Jazz slump), then I believe the Lakers will be in the negotiating mix. |
Murray was traded for four FRPs, by the way.
In any case, I don't see Ainge suddenly feeling a desperate need to tank in pursuit of a small chance at the #1 pick.
You do have a contradictory position: Lauri is so good that the Jazz must get rid of him to successfully tank, but he doesn't have that much trade pick. I can't imagine Ainge buying such a pitch and selling Lauri low.
Right now, Lauri is playing like an all-star, and I don't see why Ainge would place a lower value on him than that. |
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ArminNBA
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 2:21 pm Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | | ArminNBA wrote: |
Do you really believe Lauri’s value is that of Dejounte Murray’s? Murray was traded for 3 FRPs. Murray had two very good seasons, including an All-Star season, and was consistently improving his game. The Hawks’ bet has borne out as Murray is producing yet another great season.
Lauri has had a great 20 games, but NBA executives don’t forget easily. He fell out of favor in an ugly way in Chicago. That relationship grew sour and, from what has been reported, Chicago didn’t really understand why Lauri became so bitter because he wouldn’t communicate with them at all.
More than 2 FRPs for Lauri? Personally, I’d be shocked, but then again, the NBA shocks.
Maybe Lauri can net 2 FRPs. I concede that. (Though I doubt without protections.) I’m not even sure the Lakers are interested in Lauri. They seem to be holding onto these picks for something they perceive to be significantly better than Hield/Turner.
Anyway, if the Lakers are interested at some point and Ainge has a window to sell off (eg a Jazz slump), then I believe the Lakers will be in the negotiating mix. |
Murray was traded for four FRPs, by the way.
But back to the current situation. You seem to be arguing both sides: The Jazz need to get rid of Lauri to tank, because he is such a big element of winning, but no team will give that much for him, because he isn't that special a player. I mean, which is it?
In any case, right now Lauri is playing like an all-star, and I don't see why Ainge would place a lower value on him than that.
My guess we'll never know how much the Jazz could get for Lauri, because they won't trade him. They'll keep him as one of the key building blocks of the future, along with Sexton. |
Four FRPs? I don’t count swaps as gaining a first, especially with the Hawks appearing to be better than the Spurs even in three year, but if we’re going to be 100% here. According to NBA.com (https://www.nba.com/news/hawks-spurs-dejounte-murray-trade), Murray was traded for a Top-16 protected 2023 Charlotte FRP, an unprotected 2025 FRP, an unprotected 2027 FRP, and a 2026 pick swap.
Btw, I totally think it’s not fair to lambast my take as talking out of both sides of my mouth. I didn’t say Lauri isn’t good, only that he has a checkered history and a small sample size of strong play. And more importantly, a player can contribute to winning and not be worth 2-3 FRPs. It’s incredibly common. |
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 2:34 pm Post subject: |
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| andree wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | ArminNBA wrote: | | I can’t see Ainge passing up on the Wemby sweepstakes. |
I won't belabor this, because we've been through it before. You're saying that he's going to tank a potential playoff team in hopes of losing enough games to get a 14% chance at Wembanyama. Ainge would need to move additional players, including Clarkson, to lose enough games to get within range of the Rockets, Spurs, Magic, and Pistons. He would need to explain to the paying customers that watching THT launch bricks is worth the price of admission. Even then, the Jazz might not manage to lose enough. They might wind up with a 9-10% chance, or worse.
It's not literally impossible that Ainge would entertain this idea, but if he did, he would expect a better return than a protected first round pick in five years. I doubt that both of our picks would be enough even if unprotected. |
Still, I could see Ainge doing this. Otherwise why destroy a respectable, playoff team to start the reconstruction. And it's not only Wembanyama. Ainge has a reputation for finding good players in the draft.
This Utah may be a good team, but even Ainge and all other know that will not do better that the team he dismantled. To be in the NBA purgatory (not good enough for high playoffs battle, nor bad enough for high picks) is the worst situation. |
Why? Because Gobert and Mitchell didn't get along, because the team had hit the wall in the playoffs, and because the roster needed a reset. He didn't blow up the roster in the TWolves and Cavs trades. Instead, he picked up undervalued players in Markkanen, Beasley, and Sexton. He got rid of Beverley to clear up playing time. I'm sure that he'd move Conley if he found a good deal. For now, he has a competitive roster and loads of future picks from the TWolves and Cavs.
Anyway, the folks who are determined to believe that Ainge will tank are going to skip over the other points that I made. You might rationally blow up a playoff team for Wembanyama, but would you blow up a playoff team for a 9% chance at Wembanyama? The other players in the draft -- including Henderson -- may turn out to be good, but you wouldn't blow up a playoff team for them. And if Ainge really decided to do this, he's going to be looking for more of a return than our distant draft picks. Markkanen would likely command a first round pick by himself right now.
The bottom line is that this is just another rescue fantasy. It's not literally impossible, but it's still a fantasy.
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activeverb
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 2:44 pm Post subject: |
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| ArminNBA wrote: |
Btw, I totally think it’s not fair to lambast my take as talking out of both sides of my mouth. I didn’t say Lauri isn’t good, only that he has a checkered history and a small sample size of strong play. And more importantly, a player can contribute to winning and not be worth 2-3 FRPs. It’s incredibly common. |
But you don't want Lauri because he can "contribute to winning."
You want Lauri because he's playing like an all-star. And you want him at a modest price.
And you want to rationalize that the Jazz will trade him for a modest price because they will suddenly have a desperate desire to tank, and no other team will put a particularly high value on Lauri, so we will scoop him up.
Like Hunter said in an above post, that's really nothing more than a rescue fantasy.
In any case, I don't think we will ever find out Lauri's actual trade value right now, because I don't think the Jazz will trade him. |
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 2:57 pm Post subject: |
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| ArminNBA wrote: |
Lauri was traded to Cleveland for a lottery protected 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick. He had an OK year in Cleveland and was a throw-in for salary purposes in the Donovan Mitchell trade.
Do you really believe that 20 games of great basketball has turned Lauri into a 2 FRP player? That’s not how the NBA trade market works. For one, not all of the 29 other teams are interested in him (we can easily cross off Chicago and Cleveland lol). Second, many teams do not have the appropriate contracts to match salary/contracts they’re willing to trade to execute the deal. The market isn’t robust simply because Lauri has had a nice 1/4th of a single season.
As has been heavily reported, executives highly value the Lakers 2027 pick. Probably because it seems likely that LeBron and AD will fall off or leave the team by 2025 or 2026 and the Lakers will be in a full rebuild in that exact year?
Maybe the pick has to be unprotected, but a Top-3 protection is light. There isn’t one GM in the NBA that wouldn’t trade Lauri for the 4th pick in any draft. He’s 25 years old and will be up for a giant new contract soon. NBA teams value cost-controlled and team-controlled rookies.
In addition, Ainge’s MO has been clear from Day 1. Stack the assets up high. He wants to draft Wemby or Scoot, then use the draft capital to flank them with young talent. |
We have seen Pelinka in the trade market, giving up more unnecessary picks is his thing. As for Utah, trading a young player who is doing well on a team whose owner doesn’t want to tank for a pick 3 five off seasons from now is a firable offense. Thinking that it will be top 4 is pure speculation. If we really knew that, I would be pissed if the Lakers traded it. Utah can be in the lottery without making moves and still have picks and players to deal. Most who thought that they knew Ainge’s MO from day 1 haven’t been correct, he is doing exactly what the Jazz do, adding assets without blatant tanking.
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andree
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 3:03 pm Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | | andree wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | ArminNBA wrote: | | I can’t see Ainge passing up on the Wemby sweepstakes. |
I won't belabor this, because we've been through it before. You're saying that he's going to tank a potential playoff team in hopes of losing enough games to get a 14% chance at Wembanyama. Ainge would need to move additional players, including Clarkson, to lose enough games to get within range of the Rockets, Spurs, Magic, and Pistons. He would need to explain to the paying customers that watching THT launch bricks is worth the price of admission. Even then, the Jazz might not manage to lose enough. They might wind up with a 9-10% chance, or worse.
It's not literally impossible that Ainge would entertain this idea, but if he did, he would expect a better return than a protected first round pick in five years. I doubt that both of our picks would be enough even if unprotected. |
Still, I could see Ainge doing this. Otherwise why destroy a respectable, playoff team to start the reconstruction. And it's not only Wembanyama. Ainge has a reputation for finding good players in the draft.
This Utah may be a good team, but even Ainge and all other know that will not do better that the team he dismantled. To be in the NBA purgatory (not good enough for high playoffs battle, nor bad enough for high picks) is the worst situation. |
Again, this scenario seems highly unlike. Lauri is a 25-year-old veteran who looks like he might be approaching the stardom people long predicted for him. If the Jazz tank and get a lottery pick, the odds are they wouldn't end up with a player as good as Lauri is now.
In any case, if the Jazz did decide to tank, it's unlikely that Westbrook and our 2 FRPs are the best offer they could get for Lauri.
The Lakers getting Lauri is a fun something-for-nothing fantasy, but that's all it is. |
I didn't say we have a chance at Lauri. But I still believe Ainge has no problem to trade players even if he made his team worse now.
This being said, I don`t believe they want to trade Lauri. He might be their first piece of puzzle in reconstruction (25yo, all-star potential). |
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activeverb
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 3:33 pm Post subject: |
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| andree wrote: |
I didn't say we have a chance at Lauri. But I still believe Ainge has no problem to trade players even if he made his team worse now.
This being said, I don`t believe they want to trade Lauri. He might be their first piece of puzzle in reconstruction (25yo, all-star potential). |
I have no trouble believing Ainge would trade anyone.
I just don’t believe that Ainge would trade Lauri in order to tank (which was OP’s contention).
If he trades Lauri, he’s going to want a king’s ransom. |
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ArminNBA
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 3:38 pm Post subject: |
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| All this talk about how Ainge will trade Lauri for no less than 2 FRPs and likely at least 3 FRPs reminds me of how LG insisted all summer that Ainge would only trade Bojan Bogdanović for 2 FRPs and he traded him straight up for Kelly Olynyk (Saben Lee was immediately waived). |
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ArminNBA
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 3:53 pm Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | | ArminNBA wrote: |
Btw, I totally think it’s not fair to lambast my take as talking out of both sides of my mouth. I didn’t say Lauri isn’t good, only that he has a checkered history and a small sample size of strong play. And more importantly, a player can contribute to winning and not be worth 2-3 FRPs. It’s incredibly common. |
But you don't want Lauri because he can "contribute to winning."
You want Lauri because he's playing like an all-star. And you want him at a modest price.
And you want to rationalize that the Jazz will trade him for a modest price because they will suddenly have a desperate desire to tank, and no other team will put a particularly high value on Lauri, so we will scoop him up.
Like Hunter said in an above post, that's really nothing more than a rescue fantasy.
In any case, I don't think we will ever find out Lauri's actual trade value right now, because I don't think the Jazz will trade him. |
An FRP, one that is highly valued around the league, is not modest for a player like Lauri.
Also, I’m not targeting Lauri specifically because of his strong play in the first 20 games this year.
I believe the Lakers desperately need a large 3/4. Hield/Turner is nice, but it doesn’t address the Lakers biggest need right now — size and depth at the wing/forward positions.
Jae Crowder would be nice, but I don’t see a trade construction. The Pacers don’t have a wing they’d be willing to part with in addition to Hield/Turner.
As incredulous as many may act about including the Jazz in trade scenarios, MANY reporters have discussed the possibility of a Jazz sell off coming if their hot start dissipates. There is TONS of reporting on this. It was considered an inevitability before their hot start. I acknowledge that it’s no longer inevitable.
However, in regards to potential trade partners, the Jazz are as likely as they come as any team around the league. The Lakers and Jazz have already executed a trade together as recently as August. They were in deep talks on another. There’s a relationship there and everyone who follows the league closely knows that’s important.
That’s why I targeted the Jazz. Also, Olynyk and Beasley are clearly lesser versions of Turner/Hield, but I like the idea of adding an outside shooting 5 and a 3pt shooting guard. Again, what is it going to cost and what are the Lakers willing to pay and what is the broader market? We can be quite confident that Olynyk nor Beasley command FRPs, but Lauri’s market is much less certain. To suggest it’s ludicrous that he could be traded however is ignoring the reality that Ainge is willing to trade anyone, especially a player who will turn 26 this season and be an unrestricted free agent in two seasons — not quite on the Wemby timeline. |
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 3:53 pm Post subject: |
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| ArminNBA wrote: | | All this talk about how Ainge will trade Lauri for no less than 2 FRPs and likely at least 3 FRPs reminds me of how LG insisted all summer that Ainge would only trade Bojan Bogdanović for 2 FRPs and he traded him straight up for Kelly Olynyk (Saben Lee was immediately waived). |
I don't remember anyone ever saying that. I suspect that you're talking about potential Westbrook trade scenarios. This is a recurring issue. There has been a lot of talk about trade scenarios in which other teams would take Westbrook's $47M contract and presumably buy him out. But then people skip over that part. "The Pacers want two FRPs for Hield and Turner!" Well, no, that wasn't the deal.
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activeverb
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 3:56 pm Post subject: |
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| ArminNBA wrote: | | All this talk about how Ainge will trade Lauri for no less than 2 FRPs and likely at least 3 FRPs reminds me of how LG insisted all summer that Ainge would only trade Bojan Bogdanović for 2 FRPs and he traded him straight up for Kelly Olynyk (Saben Lee was immediately waived). |
I don’t know that many people thought Bogan would bring two FRPs in a straight up deal.
There was speculation of a Lakers-Jazz deal where the Jazz would require two picks, but that included the cost of taking on Westbrook and adding another player to balance out salaries.
Reportedly, the Jazz were offered a FRP for him, but they didn’t like the salaries they would have needed to take on.
Even with all that, the Bogan deal was regarded as pretty bad one for the Jazz, so I wouldn’t use that as any kind of benchmark for anything they might due in the future. |
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ArminNBA
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| Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 4:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | ArminNBA wrote: | | All this talk about how Ainge will trade Lauri for no less than 2 FRPs and likely at least 3 FRPs reminds me of how LG insisted all summer that Ainge would only trade Bojan Bogdanović for 2 FRPs and he traded him straight up for Kelly Olynyk (Saben Lee was immediately waived). |
I don't remember anyone ever saying that. I suspect that you're talking about potential Westbrook trade scenarios. This is a recurring issue. There has been a lot of talk about trade scenarios in which other teams would take Westbrook's $47M contract and presumably buy him out. But then people skip over that part. "The Pacers want two FRPs for Hield and Turner!" Well, no, that wasn't the deal. |
Westbrook is an expiring deal. Except for a few teams who are able to absorb large amounts of salary (like the Spurs), the vast majority of teams will need to match or nearly match salaries.
Hield/Turner combined for $40 million and Hield’s contract has another year of $18.5 million in salary to go after this one.
I do not buy the idea that the Lakers are paying 2 FRPs solely to unload a contract. That’s historically been true for bad, multi-year contracts. Not only does Westbrook’s deal expire, but he would likely accept a buyout for slightly less than his contract so that he could sign with another team (SI reported that the Heat would be interested).
If the Pacers are to trade Hield/Turner, they’ll likely need to absorb around $40 million to make the deal work. The Lakers should not be paying such an exorbitant tax due to Westbrook’s contract. |
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