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Laker_Jocker
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 Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 12:27 pm Post subject: Summer 2023 |
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I think we can safely say this year = no Championship AND that likely that the Lakers have to stand pat with the Big 3 + THT + merry minimums philosophy for 2022-2023. The good news is that they probably make a better showing next season and with some luck maybe could even make a run at the Finals....
It's going to be hard to watch the team for quite a while longer, but I am thinking the Lakers actually are not in that bad of shape contract-wise. Hopefully, what happens is that they are more competitive in 2022-2023 and then are able to make some more balanced roster changes as soon as 2023-2024.
That said, what are your predictions/opinions for after this Big 3 experiment ultimately fails to yield another championship? As of the summer of 2023, the Lakers currently have just AD & THT on the books for 2023-2024 (roughly 50M used cap, roughly 70M spending ability). What would you do?
A) Trade AD in summer of 2023 (he turns 30 just before summer) and start over with an all new team for 2023-2024. AD likely would bring back some picks and young guys to go with THT but he does have 2 years still on the contract and is already 30 so it might not be that much of a haul. Since Vogel is done in 2022-2023 it WOULD also be an opportunity to assemble a new "young guy" coach and possibly a new GM geared for young guys. I think this is the least likely pathway forward as we have already seen that the "Going Young" philosophy cost Mitch and Jim their jobs as no one has the stomach to suck for 3-4 years again, so there's that...
B) Definitely let WB and LBJ expire at the end of 2022-2023 and then add back max contract vet "pieces" around AD. In other words, try the "Big 3" again. That list would include - LBJ, Harden, Wall, Westbrook, Beal, Irving, Love, Wiggins, Jokic, DLO, Turner, Barnes and possibly one of the RFAs like Zion, Ja, Barrett, DeAndre, Garland, Herro. Could a 31 year old AD + say one of Wiggins/Jokic or Ja/Zion + say 38 year old LBJ or 35 year old Harden and some minimums win it all in 2023-2024?
C) Punt 2023-2024 with an assortment of 1 year contracts to get to final year of AD contract. This would likely mean missing playoffs in 2023-2024 but Lakers would be in a great position flexibility-wise after. In summer of 2024, AD + THT become expiring contracts which could more easily be traded PLUS the Lakers would still have 2 max slots for for the likes of - Klay, Tobias, Middleton, Siakam, Towns, McCollum, Booker, Porzingis, DDR, Sabonis and possibly some of the RFAs like Edwards, Wiseman, LaMelo, Haliburton. Could a 32 year old AD + say a 23 year old LaMelo + 28 year old Towns and some role players win it all in 2024-2025? |
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JUST-MING
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Joined: 23 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:04 pm Post subject: |
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I would build around Anthony Davis similar to how Denver has built around Nikola Jokic.
I develop Malik Monk into Jamal Murray. His playmaking skills have improved. His defensive intensity has improved. He needs to learn angles and to funnel into help.
LG legends Jerami Grant and Myles Turner are free agents that summer.
Coincidentally, Nikola Jokic is a free agent that summer.
I also think they need to find "that" guy. Robert Horry. James Posey. Bobby Portis. That rare guy that is the difference in winning and losing.
Anthony Davis is a free agent in 2025. If he leaves, wow, thankfully they didn't trade the 2027 pick. |
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Halflife
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:06 pm Post subject: |
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I don't know why people think next year we will be better. Maybe if we get a significant upgrade but bron is old. He says himself how tired he is. That won't get better.
AD missed 36 games last year in a shortened season and both guys broke down late. This year he has missed games and hasn't done much while Bron sits.
We need versatile players with shelf life. Not affordable stop gaps.
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BandwagonLBJhopper
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:07 pm Post subject: |
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The good thing is, while Davis is a beta and not a number 1 type alpha leader
That is perfect for signing a top free agent who knows he is a great, proven championship level #2 and a guy who can dominate off the ball
That makes it much easier to attract a star wing than if you are starting with nothing or a bunch of young players/ picks |
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BandwagonLBJhopper
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Halflife wrote: | I don't know why people think next year we will be better. Maybe if we get a significant upgrade but bron is old. He says himself how tired he is. That won't get better.
AD missed 36 games last year in a shortened season and both guys broke down late. This year he has missed games and hasn't done much while Bron sits.
We need versatile players with shelf life. Not affordable stop gaps. |
I love Bron, but if I'm Pelinka/Jeanie I'm shifting to build for the future mode and putting young pieces around Davis NOW.
Lebron is almost 40. I don't care how good he is, it's not a sustainable model to rely on someone with that much mileage to be your centerpiece. He should be the cherry on top who can elevate you in the playoffs and bring experience. |
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SGV-Laker fan
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:19 pm Post subject: |
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either way Lakers are in horrible shape:
1. aging LeBron still on his farewell tour, Jeannie is milking it to get attention and $$$
2. if LeBron retires before 2023, building around soon-to-be 30 year old AD isn't much to look forward to.
LeBron and AD can't be in the future of the Lakers, neither of them or both of them won't make Lakers a contender, and i don't think any star free agents in their prime want to play with an aging LeBron and/or a 30 year old AD. This summer is the perfect time to trade either or both of them. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:23 pm Post subject: |
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Gentle reminder. In the last 25 years, only two all-NBA level free agents joined the Lakers. Shaq in 1996 and LBJ in 2018.
I think a lot of the top 2023 FAs will stay on their teams thanks to things like the supermax. So we have to be judicious about using our 2027/29 picks. I would not send those out like free candy b/c we may need them to draft, or send out to trade for a star.
Which makes the whole Russ contract even more infuriating. |
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BLF2145
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:26 pm Post subject: |
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| BandwagonLBJhopper wrote: | | Halflife wrote: | I don't know why people think next year we will be better. Maybe if we get a significant upgrade but bron is old. He says himself how tired he is. That won't get better.
AD missed 36 games last year in a shortened season and both guys broke down late. This year he has missed games and hasn't done much while Bron sits.
We need versatile players with shelf life. Not affordable stop gaps. |
I love Bron, but if I'm Pelinka/Jeanie I'm shifting to build for the future mode and putting young pieces around Davis NOW.
Lebron is almost 40. I don't care how good he is, it's not a sustainable model to rely on someone with that much mileage to be your centerpiece. He should be the cherry on top who can elevate you in the playoffs and bring experience. |
And I see it differently. AD has literally shown over and over and over that you can’t build around AD. He can not even come close to carrying this team w/o LeBron. Even with quality players in previous years. The guy is just not a #1. I would do everything I could to move him for a few young pieces that match up to his salary (build quality depth). And then summer 2023 try to bring in some big names to pair with that high quality depth.
IE could we get say get Herro and Bam for him (likely not now but last summer could have).
Or maybe more realistic, a John Collins and Hunter and Heuter? That is three highly quality pieces and then pair with a older Bron and say we snag DeAngelo Russell.
PG: DA
SG: Heuter
SF: Hunter
PF: Bron
C: Collins
Bench:
THT
Fill in as needed
To me that is a younger more dynamic team than keeping an aging AD that will continue to go down quickly as he ages unfortunately.
Don’t get me wrong. That is not an amazing return. But for a 30 year old, injury prone PF that will not be anything near what we really need post LB to lead this team, I would try my best to get some young talent now to build a future with. |
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Laker_Jocker
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Joined: 13 Jul 2004
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:58 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | Gentle reminder. In the last 25 years, only two all-NBA level free agents joined the Lakers. Shaq in 1996 and LBJ in 2018.
I think a lot of the top 2023 FAs will stay on their teams thanks to things like the supermax. So we have to be judicious about using our 2027/29 picks. I would not send those out like free candy b/c we may need them to draft, or send out to trade for a star.
Which makes the whole Russ contract even more infuriating. |
Good point and I agree... Hopefully, Lakers realize this season and next is an opportunity to slow down, not double down on mistakes like WB regardless of what LBJ or AD or Klutch wants. (There's your advice, Jeanie)
Championship was 16 months ago and in about another 16 months 2023-2024 free agency starts. Lakers need to be very deliberate about roster "philosophy" and the crucial point will be what to do with AD, salary cap and picks they have for the 2023-2024 season and beyond (and/or how best to leverage the final year of AD in 2024-2025).
Because, as you pointed out, luring the max FAs away is much harder now, those 2027 and 2029 FRPs could very well make or break the Lakers getting another championship in this decade.
Seems to me it has always been finding the right mix of youth and vet play. To that end, I would be really surprised if a "Big 3" philosophy wins anytime soon (Nets/Lakers) - especially if the "Big 3" are all older players. Historically, and more practically for the reason you mentioned, the Lakers need to be prudent with the upcoming cap flexibility (and picks and MLE) to figure out the right "Big 2" first. Looking forward, I am thinking that AD would NOT be one of the 2 so I would start prepping for that now.
Last edited by Laker_Jocker on Tue Feb 15, 2022 2:07 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Halflife
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SGV-Laker fan
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 2:13 pm Post subject: |
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| Halflife wrote: | | anthony edwards and Vanderbilt for AD. Who says no? |
Minnesota says no. why do they need AD when they have his daddy (Towns) on the team. |
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Halflife
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 2:19 pm Post subject: |
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| SGV-Laker fan wrote: | | Halflife wrote: | | anthony edwards and Vanderbilt for AD. Who says no? |
Minnesota says no. why do they need AD when they have his daddy (Towns) on the team. |
because ad/Kat just like embiid and AD would pretty strong.
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 2:21 pm Post subject: |
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The first question is whether Davis bounces back and becomes a top five player again. If he doesn't, we should ship him out in the summer of 2023 while he still has value. I know that a lot of people see him as the future cornerstone of the franchise, but if he doesn't bounce back, he's just an overpaid big man. He would have two years and $83M in salary left. If he's a top 25 player (which is more or less how I would rate him at the moment), that's too much of a payroll commitment.
I would take a long, hard look at the players on the UFA list. Other than Jokic, there isn't much there. I would not give a max contract to Beal. In fact, I wouldn't give a max contract to anyone on that list other than Jokic. If that's the market price for someone like Jerami Grant, I'd take a pass. We'd just wind up with a roster of overpaid non-superstars. That's the worst-case scenario.
So that leaves two options: (1) try to sign some younger players on sub-maximum contracts that could be tradeable, or (2) extend Lebron for a year and punt to 2024. Those are not enticing options. However, our best chance of getting a replacement superstar is a trade, and we would need assets to make a trade. Option (1) could be effective, especially if we keep Davis.
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Bron2AD
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 3:08 pm Post subject: |
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| JUST-MING wrote: | I would build around Anthony Davis similar to how Denver has built around Nikola Jokic.
I develop Malik Monk into Jamal Murray. His playmaking skills have improved. His defensive intensity has improved. He needs to learn angles and to funnel into help.
LG legends Jerami Grant and Myles Turner are free agents that summer.
Coincidentally, Nikola Jokic is a free agent that summer.
I also think they need to find "that" guy. Robert Horry. James Posey. Bobby Portis. That rare guy that is the difference in winning and losing.
Anthony Davis is a free agent in 2025. If he leaves, wow, thankfully they didn't trade the 2027 pick. |
One is MVP and going for second MVP while the other is satisfied with 1 ring |
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KindCrippler2000
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 3:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Halflife wrote: | | anthony edwards and Vanderbilt for AD. Who says no? |
Trading AD will be insanely difficult, but it will be necessary for a rebuild and some future assets. Something tells me the Lakers aren't interested in a rebuild and will keep signing aging vets to keep Lebron happy.
AD fits the Bulls championship timeline with DeRozan, but there's no way they give up more than Lavine/Vucevic/a protected 1st/a few 2nd rounders. You kinda have to take what you get. |
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PNWlakers
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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| KindCrippler2000 wrote: | | Halflife wrote: | | anthony edwards and Vanderbilt for AD. Who says no? |
Trading AD will be insanely difficult, but it will be necessary for a rebuild and some future assets. Something tells me the Lakers aren't interested in a rebuild and will keep signing aging vets to keep Lebron happy.
AD fits the Bulls championship timeline with DeRozan, but there's no way they give up more than Lavine/Vucevic/a protected 1st/a few 2nd rounders. You kinda have to take what you get. |
Zach would have to push that trade. I doubt the Bulls would accept it, unless ZV told the team he wasn't re-signing... then a S&T
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SGV-Laker fan
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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| KindCrippler2000 wrote: | | Halflife wrote: | | anthony edwards and Vanderbilt for AD. Who says no? |
Trading AD will be insanely difficult, but it will be necessary for a rebuild and some future assets. Something tells me the Lakers aren't interested in a rebuild and will keep signing aging vets to keep Lebron happy.
AD fits the Bulls championship timeline with DeRozan, but there's no way they give up more than Lavine/Vucevic/a protected 1st/a few 2nd rounders. You kinda have to take what you get. |
i'm pretty sure Bulls value Lavine over DeRozan because of age and body of works. DeRozan has an unreal season which he has never had before and he's over 30 already. |
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mad55557777
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 3:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Jeanie and rob better sign a super star in 2023/2024 because the cap might jump 30% or more in 2025( free max slot) due to the new tv deal. If you have good players, other max players will come(KD to the warriors),and if you don’t, you are looking at Mozdeng for the same money. |
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danzag
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 3:46 pm Post subject: |
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The FA class suck.
Our better option is to pair AD with an All-Star/quasi-MVP type of player, preferably a guard. Don't know if we have the assets, though. |
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Runway8
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 4:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Bron ain't normal, and he can get old any moment. We're already getting the results of an old Lebron. His numbers are pretty, but if he was 28 we wouldn't be 5 under .500, and the reason is defensively. He would change outcomes in his youth defensively. Now, they almost feel like empty stats. |
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Runway8
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 4:27 pm Post subject: |
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| JUST-MING wrote: | I would build around Anthony Davis similar to how Denver has built around Nikola Jokic.
I develop Malik Monk into Jamal Murray. His playmaking skills have improved. His defensive intensity has improved. He needs to learn angles and to funnel into help.
LG legends Jerami Grant and Myles Turner are free agents that summer.
Coincidentally, Nikola Jokic is a free agent that summer.
I also think they need to find "that" guy. Robert Horry. James Posey. Bobby Portis. That rare guy that is the difference in winning and losing.
Anthony Davis is a free agent in 2025. If he leaves, wow, thankfully they didn't trade the 2027 pick. |
I've seen enough to know a team built around AD ain't going anywhere. But his value is obvious, so I don't want to hear about how we can't find a trade partner for him, walking for nothing, or renouncing him. LOL! Pelinka surely won't botch this asset, right? |
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Halflife
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Baron Von Humongous
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:57 pm Post subject: |
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| danzag wrote: | The FA class suck.
Our better option is to pair AD with an All-Star/quasi-MVP type of player, preferably a guard. Don't know if we have the assets, though. |
Jokic is an UFA in 2023 and may not think Murray + MPJ will be enough to get him over the hump. But he's also supermax eligible, he'll probably be productive until he's 40 given his style, and the fit with AD is a little clunky.
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kwase
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| Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 6:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Lakers need to start shopping everything related to klutch for a good, up-and-coming star and draft picks. Otherwise we are going to stink this entire decade. No franchise is going to come and bail us out, and next year will probably be worse than this one. |
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Laker's Fan
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| Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2022 1:03 am Post subject: |
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2023 Pre-Agents (2024 free)
Anthony Davis (P-Opt)
Kawhi Leonard (P-Opt)
Paul George (P-Opt)
Damien Lillard (P-Opt)
Jaylen Brown
CJ McCollum
Karl-Anthony Towns
Devin Booker
Pascal Siakam
Klay Thompson
There's still plenty of time for extensions to shrink this list. Making that even more likely, this would be the first group to sign free agent deals under a new CBA (assuming no earlier opt-out). Usually, star players lock in first. |
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