Russian invasion of Ukraine discussion
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:12 pm    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
I would be surprised if the Ukrainian government hasn't made plans to bail before the invasion. After all they would be the number 1 target on the list.

Already being discussed:
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Richard Engel
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Biden administration officials have discussed plans with the Ukrainian government for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to leave Kyiv in the event of a Russian invasion, according to two people familiar with the discussions.

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trmiv
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:56 pm    Post subject:

And there it is. Putin has ordered Russian troops into the separatist regions for “peacekeeping.”
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Halflife
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:22 pm    Post subject:

Russia clearly has china’s backing. If not he’s not this brave
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:12 pm    Post subject:

Halflife wrote:
Russia clearly has china’s backing. If not he’s not this brave

CCP mouthpieces advocated for "the respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity" just yesterday. Even some of Putin's own cronies seemed reluctant to give approval for the invasion in front of the cameras today - which is no doubt why he put them on the spot and aired the roll call on a tape delay - so I think Putin is very much over his skis on this one.

I can see Xi being pissed off, but not so pissed as to denounce Putin. We'll see if the CCP recognizes the annexed regions as part of Russia - Cuba and Venezuela have among other former/current communist autocracies - even though that would violate one of China's core principles.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:14 pm    Post subject:

Going to call my Congressman tomorrow and ask him to support removing any immigration cap and have the US take in as many Ukrainian refugees as possible.
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kikanga
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:28 pm    Post subject:

War is the brother of pestilence (see Spanish flu and WWI).

Fingers crossed we get our version of the "roaring 20s". With all this $hit, there must be a horse somewhere.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:04 pm    Post subject:

kikanga wrote:
War is the brother of pestilence (see Spanish flu and WWI).

Fingers crossed we get our version of the "roaring 20s". With all this $hit, there must be a horse somewhere.

I'd prefer a stable social democracy to a giant bubble of unsustainable greed.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:12 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
kikanga wrote:
War is the brother of pestilence (see Spanish flu and WWI).

Fingers crossed we get our version of the "roaring 20s". With all this $hit, there must be a horse somewhere.

I'd prefer a stable social democracy to a giant bubble of unsustainable greed.


Yup.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:13 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Halflife wrote:
Russia clearly has china’s backing. If not he’s not this brave

CCP mouthpieces advocated for "the respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity" just yesterday. Even some of Putin's own cronies seemed reluctant to give approval for the invasion in front of the cameras today - which is no doubt why he put them on the spot and aired the roll call on a tape delay - so I think Putin is very much over his skis on this one.

I can see Xi being pissed off, but not so pissed as to denounce Putin. We'll see if the CCP recognizes the annexed regions as part of Russia - Cuba and Venezuela have among other former/current communist autocracies - even though that would violate one of China's core principles.

My best guess is Beijing rn feels like it's been forced to walk a minefield for an ostensible ally it doesn't feel any great affection for but is forced to align itself with out of necessity. Putin really put Xi into an awkward position.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:44 pm    Post subject:

Even with the heavy propaganda campaign, I doubt many Russians want to have a war with Ukraine, especially since many have Ukrainian familial ties. He's done an effective job killing anything resembling an organized political opposition, but a prolonged economic downturn will be difficult to handle if it impacts the masses. His inner circle won't care much because they're already sanctioned by the West.
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:37 am    Post subject:

Wilt wrote:
Even with the heavy propaganda campaign, I doubt many Russians want to have a war with Ukraine, especially since many have Ukrainian familial ties. He's done an effective job killing anything resembling an organized political opposition, but a prolonged economic downturn will be difficult to handle if it impacts the masses. His inner circle won't care much because they're already sanctioned by the West.


Don't underestimate the Russian tradition of being subservient to dictators or despots. They still look with fondness to the USSR period, even if they were hungry then. Democracy never worked and will never work in Russia.
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:30 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
adkindo wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Putin is doing the full Iraq WMD routine right now on state tv.

I think they legitimately believe they'll be treated as liberators.


Starting to feel like there may be a 4th a 3 taking place, and the QB is just trying to get the defense to jump off sides. I am not saying Russia will not invade.....only there is a slight chance it does not happen if he can find an off ramp.

Catching some of his speech rn and I'm skeptical. Putin sounds completely bloodthirsty:
Quote:
"Contemporary Ukraine should be called The Vladimir I. Lenin Republic of Ukraine. And then they tore down his statues and called it de-communization. You want decommunization? We're prepared to show you what that really means for Ukraine."


Na man.....they are asking Putin to come in and help them. He just wants Ukraine to stop all the violence.

Even though my brain knows we should not get involved, listening to that Putin speech made me want to bomb Moscow.
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:32 am    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
I would be surprised if the Ukrainian government hasn't made plans to bail before the invasion. After all they would be the number 1 target on the list.


Zelenskyy will be a feature at The Comedy Store by April.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 8:11 am    Post subject:

Germany suspends Nordstream 2.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-russia-germany-takes-steps-110845607.html
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adkindo
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 8:50 am    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
Germany suspends Nordstream 2.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-russia-germany-takes-steps-110845607.html


It means far less than it was made out to be....Germany is already getting over 60% of their energy from Russia via currently operating pipelines like Nordstream 1. Germany is not turning off any of the multiple current Russian pipelines into the country.
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 9:43 am    Post subject:

Buck32 wrote:
Wilt wrote:
Even with the heavy propaganda campaign, I doubt many Russians want to have a war with Ukraine, especially since many have Ukrainian familial ties. He's done an effective job killing anything resembling an organized political opposition, but a prolonged economic downturn will be difficult to handle if it impacts the masses. His inner circle won't care much because they're already sanctioned by the West.


Don't underestimate the Russian tradition of being subservient to dictators or despots. They still look with fondness to the USSR period, even if they were hungry then. Democracy never worked and will never work in Russia.


In fairness, there's never actually been a democracy in Russia. The citizens look fondly on the USSR because Russia had world profile and the communist despots often stole less from them than the current oligarchs/mafia.
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 11:59 am    Post subject:

Once again, the Biden Administration screws up the communications. This has been an ongoing theme.

Biden openly stated that there was a split among NATO allies regarding a full-blown invasion and a "minor incursion". That was stupid, Putin seized Austria (Crimea), and now he's annexing the Sudetenland (Donetsk and Luhansk). Czechoslovakia (the rest of the Ukraine) is next. All Biden needs now is an umbrella.

The Administration doubled down on its ineffectiveness by sending Harris to NATO, who in turn accomplished seemingly nothing. Some of that is on Biden's people who have marginalized her, and some of that is on Harris for not galvanizing the NATO members. But some of that is on that weakened will of NATO as an instrument of power.

Putin is getting what he wants: carte blanche to seize former USSR possessions, all the while using intimidation and incentives to pull EU-wannabe states into the Russian economic sphere. And perhaps it is time for the US to reassess what it wants. NATO was the US, West Germany, Great Britain, and France, with France being the perfidious member. That mantle has now been passed along to Germany.

Euro members of NATO have been reluctant to foot the bill for defending themselves. And now NATO and US sanctions do little more than irritate Putin and the oligarchs. The gas pipeline freeze? That's a joke. That gas line isn't even in operation, the existing has pipelines feeding western Europe from Russia are still operational.

The bedrock of NATO should be Germany. They are the largest economic power and the state that should be most concerned (in theory) about the Russian threat. But they don't give a damn, they want gas to power factories and heat homes cheaply during winter. They have forsaken NATO for their interest. Perhaps it is time for the US to reconsider its strategic options as well. If parts of the world no longer care for defending democracy, then why should we continue to exert our resources there?

And our foreign policy and military actions share the blame as well. The endless wars have weakened us economically, all the while strengthening our enemies. We no longer have an enviable standard of living, too many factories have been shuttered as corporations and politicians embraced faulty and self-serving economic justifications. This is a new reality, the US has to strategically reevaluate its place in the world. We simply don't have the treasure, the willpower, the economic self-interest, or strong partners in place. What if Russia invades more former Soviet states? What if China invades Taiwan, or send a few non-US flagged warships to the bottom of the South China Sea?
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 12:18 pm    Post subject:

In my opinion, the sanctions won't work because Russia has been pivoting towards China anyways and both countries are trying to get away from established US systems in place. What we are going to see is the world splitting into 2 different camps, one revolved around the US and one revolved around China.
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 1:24 pm    Post subject:

Isn't this a "Political Thread"?

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adkindo
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:14 pm    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
In my opinion, the sanctions won't work because Russia has been pivoting towards China anyways and both countries are trying to get away from established US systems in place. What we are going to see is the world splitting into 2 different camps, one revolved around the US and one revolved around China.


Not the type of sanctions that being utilized currently.....Putin has already built those into the equation. Countries use intermediaries to work around sanctions daily......and companies knowingly do business through these intermediaries. If Europe stopped buying Russian energy and the US hit them with real financial sanctions....then Putin may have to rethink his actions.....but I doubt that happens. Sanctions mostly hurt the population, and Putin could care less if the Russian population has to sacrifice.
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:15 pm    Post subject:

If this was similar to college football conference realignment, there would pressure on the US to invade Cuba.
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DaMuleRules
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:35 pm    Post subject:

Interesting that as the world discussion of Russia's move with the Ukraine, Facebook is suddenly facing a widespread outage . . .
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:53 pm    Post subject:

It is very interesting in that this could be a blip in history that is barely recalled in 20 years.....or it could spiral into a pivotal moment in history that could alter the next 100 years.
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:25 pm    Post subject:

Omar Little wrote:
Buck32 wrote:
Wilt wrote:
Even with the heavy propaganda campaign, I doubt many Russians want to have a war with Ukraine, especially since many have Ukrainian familial ties. He's done an effective job killing anything resembling an organized political opposition, but a prolonged economic downturn will be difficult to handle if it impacts the masses. His inner circle won't care much because they're already sanctioned by the West.


Don't underestimate the Russian tradition of being subservient to dictators or despots. They still look with fondness to the USSR period, even if they were hungry then. Democracy never worked and will never work in Russia.


In fairness, there's never actually been a democracy in Russia. The citizens look fondly on the USSR because Russia had world profile and the communist despots often stole less from them than the current oligarchs/mafia.


It's also a bit more complicated than declaring that Russians are somehow inherently "subservient to dictators."

The 1905 Revolution was democratic in its character initially. So was the 1917 Revolution. Both eventually ran out of steam because of the inability of the peasantry to unite itself politically, leaving the Tsar in 1905 and Lenin 1917 to take advantage of that lack of unity, and instituting harsh authoritarian measures that kept the country from further democratization.

The period between 1991 and 1999 was also a time of democratization with an independent media and many political parties that operated freely. But it was also accompanied by harsh economic times, which once again created a political vacuum that Putin exploited when he came to power and then gradually killed all political position and enriched a small number of oligarchs.

And with all of that, there IS a political movement of Russians that oppose him but it's difficult for them to organize in any meaningful way. So it's not as if Russians are inherently opposed to democracy, they weren't allowed to practice democracy by a series of ruthless, effective leaders.

If the Russian people had a free and independent media and were allowed by their leaders to practice a democracy, they would. We've seen glimpses of that throughout history.
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:46 pm    Post subject:

Is Europe and the USA really going to let Russia invade and take over Ukraine like the Talibans did to Afghanistan? What is next? China invading Taiwan?
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