2022/23 Lakers relevant Salary Cap Q&A (Please refer to page 6 for the 2022/23 season & refer to page 7 for 2023 Cap Plan Forecasts)
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:59 am    Post subject:

Decided to bump a previous post since it was asked of me in the forums. I made a few edits to it to address other aspects next summer.

What can we offer Kyrie next summer as a FA if we do not trade for his bird rights this year?

Whatever cap space we can squeeze out depending on what Bron gives back in a re-up and if we renounce all the capholds on our other FAs.

1) AD 40.6m
2) THT 11m (player option)
3) MaxC 1.7m
4) 2023 1st lower pick swap w/NO (assuming in 20-30 range) ~3m caphold
5) 2023 LA 2nd rounder 1.1m caphold
6) 2023 Chicago 2nd rounder 1.1m caphold
7) Bron FA caphold (105% of previous year) 46.7m
8) Damien 2.6m (player option)
9) Reaves RFA QO 2.1m
10-12) 3 incomplete roster charges @1.1m per 3.3m

= 113.2m in team salary meaning we can give Ky at most 19.8m using our available cap space.

If the salary cap maxes out at 136m (10% annual increase from this season’s 123.6m salary cap), our cap space then becomes about 23m.

If THT/Damien don’t pick up their POs and we renounce RFA Reaves, we can get as much as 32.5m in cap space on a projected 133m salary cap (35.5m on a max 136m cap). Something to note, Ky’s true max is 46.6m (35% max player).

Now if we renounce Bron (essentially also losing his bird rights when we use that vacant cap space to fill up with other players), we can get as much as 78m in cap space (assuming Damien/THT/Reaves are all gone).
Note: Two 35% max players need 93m in cap space
One 35% & one 30% max players need 86.5m in cap space
Two 30% max players need 79.8m in cap space
I highly doubt any 25% max players will be available next summer & if they are, they might be scared into signing an extension with their home team seeing how Ayton and Sexton had/are sweating it out now. However if we do offer a max 25% offer sheet to a RFA 25% max eligible player, our cap space remains frozen till the home team decides to match our offer sheet or not. (see Ayton-Indy offersheet). The home team of the RFA has 48 hrs to match and till they do, our cap space designated to that offer sheet cannot be offered to any other FA.

Below is a link that consists of a list of 2023 FAs

If thru all that, we don’t use the 2023 cap space to sign another player with, we can then unrenounce Bron and get back his bird rights & caphold onto our books to offer him up to 47.6m on a new max deal (if the cap maxed out to 136m next summer). Also something to note is that if Bron bypasses an extension this August, he will be eligible to get a no-trade clause included in his new deal next summer.

Lastly after all our cap space is accounted for, we can then turn to our room MLE which is projected to be around 5.9m.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2022 5:32 pm    Post subject:

I hear we have a cap plan next summer…what other teams can compete with our potential cap space for max player(s)?

Current projections estimate the salary cap being 133m (7.56% increase). Let’s assume cap smoothing continues & it maxes out at 136m (10% max increase) for the 2023/24 season. Room for:
35% max (47.6m) - team salary cannot be greater than 88.4m
30% max (40.8m) - team salary cannot be greater than 95.2m
25% max (34m) - team salary cannot be greater than 102m

Lakers w/o Bron’s 47.6m & Russ’s 49.5m capholds (ie renounce their Bird rights) on our books…

1) AD 40.6m
2) THT 11m (player option)
3) MaxC 1.7m
4) 2023 1st lower pick swap w/NO (assuming in 20-30 range) ~3m caphold
5) 2023 LA 2nd rounder 1.1m caphold
6) 2023 Chicago 2nd rounder 1.1m caphold
7) Damien 2.6m (player option)
8) Reaves RFA QO 2.1m
9-12) 4 incomplete roster charges @1.1m per 4.4m
= team salary of 67.6m; cap space of 68.4m; w/THT & Damien opting out we get 79.8m in cap space

We are projected to have the most cap space next summer of any team (if we renounce Bron & Russ), with the following teams having at least enough space to sign a 25% max player in free agency. Early projected team salaries for:

SA 67m (8 players; 4 incomplete roster charges)
Indy 72.4m (11; 1 IR)
Htown 72.3m (13)
Char 90.9m (8; 4 IR)
Det 91.9m (13)
Mem 98.3m (11; 1 IR)
Okc 98.9m (15)

Note: the above projections for those teams do not incorporate RFA players & their QO capholds nor does it contain the projected 2023 1st round pick capholds.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:36 am    Post subject:

Hoopshype’s Yossi 2023 Offseason Cap Space Forecast

To further expand on the 2023 cap plan posts made 👆🏼, Yossi has elaborated a bit more on the topic with his new Hoopshype piece.

The Lakers are currently projected to generate over $60 million in cap space since they’ll only have Anthony Davis, Talen Horton-Tucker, Damian Jones, Max Christie, and their 2023 first-round pick on the books. However, that cap space would immediately get eliminated if LeBron James signs a maximum extension. Also, it would likely be eliminated if they trade for one of their reported targets like Kyrie Irving, Myles Turner, or Buddy Hield, since they would presumably look to extend or re-sign them.

San Antonio
The Spurs are currently projected to generate around $60 million in cap space next offseason. This projection includes Keldon Johnson’s newly signed extension, which will give him a starting salary of $20 million, and them getting a Top 7 pick in this year’s draft. Their projection could go down if they sign Tre Jones or Joe Wieskamp to long-term deals, and they could gain more if they waive the non-guaranteed contract of Zach Collins. After trading Dejounte Murray for draft equity, they seem likely to use their space to take on bad money with more picks attached.

The Rockets have a high variance of cap space projections depending on their decisions. They will have their own first-round pick which could be in the Top 7, as well as the Bucks’ first-rounder this season which should be somewhere in the 20s. Assuming those pick projections stand, they could generate around $75 million in cap space if they renounce all cap holds, including Kevin Porter Jr., and waive all their non-guaranteed players, including Eric Gordon’s $20.9 million salary. If they keep all those players, they could be looking at $45 million in space. They might be realistically looking at around $60 million in cap space by keeping Porter Jr.’s $9.7 million cap hold on the books, if he’s not extended, and waiving Gordon.

The Pistons are looking at having maximum cap space for a fourth consecutive offseason in 2023. They are projected to generate around $30 million in cap space, but can get to around $60 million if they maximize their space. That would include waiving Kelly Olynyk’s partially guaranteed salary for next season, as well as declining the team options for Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel. That projection includes the Pistons having a Top 7 pick in the 2023 draft. They could look to make a leap into competitiveness by using their cap space to sign veterans who can help them win.

The Magic rolled over their 2022 cap space to 2023 by re-signing several of their free agents to contracts with non-guaranteed salaries in 2023-24. They could generate a maximum amount of cap space in the $50 million range if they waive all their non-guaranteed players, which includes Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, Mo Bamba, and Bol Bol. This projection includes them having a Top 7 pick, as well as the Bulls’ 2023 pick being in the late teens-to-early 20s. Their most realistic cap space projection is likely somewhere in the $20-30 million range since it’s unlikely they waive all their non-guaranteed players, but they could easily just keep them all and operate over the cap instead.

The Pacers currently have just under $30 million in cap space and could be looking at around $50 million in 2023 if they don’t add any long-term salaries. This would include not re-signing Myles Turner, and their projection could increase by another $19 million if they trade Buddy Hield for expiring contracts. Their cap space projection includes them having a Top 7 pick in the 2023 draft, as well as the Celtics’ first-round pick being in the mid-to-late twenties. They seem to be open to both using their cap space to facilitate salary dumps with draft picks attached as well as signing players who can help them compete after giving Deandre Ayton a maximum offer sheet.

The Jazz put themselves to be in a position to be major cap space players next offseason after trading Rudy Gobert. They could generate up to $40 million in cap space if they maximize their cap space, which would include waiving Mike Conley Jr. and declining the team options of Malik Beasley and Udoka Azubuike. They seem more likely to trade these players than cut them, and could generate much more if they trade Donovan Mitchell and Jordan Clarkson. Their cap space projection includes them having a Top 7 pick in the 2023 draft, as well as the two other picks they’re owed by the Wolves and Sixers being in the low-to-mid twenties. They seem likely to use their cap space to further facilitate deals that net them more draft equity.

The Hornets cap situation has completely changed now that Miles Bridges is likely out of the picture. They are now looking at generating around $35 million in cap space in 2023, a projection that includes their first-round pick being in the mid-teens, and the Nuggets’ first-round pick being in the early-to-mid twenties. PJ Washington is extension-eligible but they should still have significant cap space if they extend him to a team-friendly deal. If they have any free agent targets in mind in 2023, they could look to generate more room by trading some of their highest-paid players like Gordon Hayward or Terry Rozier.

Oklahoma City
The Thunder are currently projected to generate $25 million in cap space in 2023, which includes them having a top 7 pick in the 2023 draft. They were previously projected to generate close to $50 million in cap space, but Lu Dort’s new contract and Kenrich Williams’ extension lowered it significantly. They could get to a little over $30 million in space if they waive their non-guaranteed players, which include Theo Maledon, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Vit Krecji, and Aaron Wiggins. After what will be three years of bottoming out, they could finally look to make a leap with their cap space.

The Grizzlies can still have close to maximum cap space in 2023 despite extending Ja Morant to a maximum extension. If he qualifies for the 30 percent maximum contract, the Grizzlies could generate around $25 million in cap space. That projection includes their first-round pick being in the low 20s. They could generate more if they were to trade Tyus Jones, but could easily be over the cap if they extend Dillon Brooks or Steven Adams. If they do operate with cap space, it would make sense for them to pursue a starting center like Myles Turner or Jakob Poeltl.

The Cavaliers are currently in a position to generate around $25 million in cap space despite extending Darius Garland to a maximum extension. However, they seem likely to extend or re-sign at least one of Caris LeVert, Collin Sexton, and Kevin Love, which would eliminate their cap space.

The Timberwolves could be looking at around $20 million in cap space if they do not extend or re-sign D’Angelo Russell, Jaylen Nowell, or Naz Reid. They would also need to decline the team option to Nathan Knight, and waive the non-guaranteed salaries of Taurean Prince and Jordan McLaughlin. They could get to around $30 million in space if they were to also offload Kyle Anderson, which could put them in a position to pursue a new starting point guard.

The Kings are currently projected to generate around $20 million in cap space if they do not re-sign or extend Harrison Barnes. They could get to around $30 million if they got off Richaun Holmes’ contract, which could allow them to pursue one of the top wings in free agency.

Potential 2023 Free Agents
The talent pool of free agents in 2023 may not be much better than 2022. A lot of the top players that could enter free agency could still avoid free agency by extending with their current teams.

James Harden (player option)

Khris Middleton (player option)

Draymond Green (player option)

Kyrie Irving

Andrew Wiggins

Fred VanVleet (player option)

Myles Turner

Nikola Vucevic

Harrison Barnes

Brook Lopez

Jerami Grant

D’Angelo Russell

Caris LeVert

Al Horford

Dillon Brooks

Seth Curry

Bogdan Bogdanovic (player option)

Kyle Kuzma (player option)

Jakob Poeltl

Kristaps Porzingis (player option)

RJ Barrett (restricted)

DeAndre Hunter (restricted)

Jordan Poole (restricted)

Cameron Johnson (restricted)

Tyler Herro (restricted)

Grant Williams (restricted)

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:40 am    Post subject:

It seems like 2022 summer free agency is all but wrapped up. So naturally we look to next summer with our vaunted 2023 cap plan in effect. All the posts on this page go into detail of what could occur next summer. And now here’s Bobby giving his outlook….

ESPN’s BobbyM 2023 Offseason Forecast

LeBron James

The top free agent in the 2023 class could be off the market on Aug. 4.

That's the day James becomes eligible to sign a two-year, $97.1 million extension with the Los Angeles Lakers. The two-year term is the maximum allowed under the CBA because of the over-38 rule.

By agreeing to a new contract, James would bump his career earnings to $532 million, the most ever for an NBA player (a record that is sure to fall in the coming years as player salaries continue to grow).

Even if James signs an extension, the Lakers project to have nearly $23 million in cap space next summer (and if he doesn't sign an extension, that number is about the same because of his cap hold, which would be on the Lakers' books until he re-signs or signs elsewhere). That number could increase if Talen Horton-Tucker declines his $11 million player option or he is traded before then.

While that cap space is significant, it's not enough to add a max-level free agent, which is part of the reason the Lakers should feel a sense of urgency to swap Russell Westbrook for Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irving or multiple players under contract for next season even if that means a future first-round pick is lost.

The Lakers would acquire Irving's Bird rights in a trade, allowing them to exceed the cap to sign the free agent guard next offseason.

If the Lakers can't find a Westbrook deal to their liking, they could use their cap space next summer to add multiple players around James and Anthony Davis, similar to what they did in 2019, when they signed Danny Green, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Alex Caruso, Avery Bradley and JaVale McGee -- which helped them win a championship that season.

The great unknown is what could happen if James does not extend and plays out the season on an expiring contract.

How many teams are projected to have cap space?

The business of the NBA is healthy, and as a result, the salary cap for a second consecutive season is projected to increase 10% to $133 million in 2023-24.

The rise in the cap is a $24 million increase from the 2020-21 season, the first full year the league was impacted severely by financial losses because of COVID-19.

Because of the significant increase, ESPN projects 13 teams to have cap space next offseason.

In comparison, a combined nine teams had spending power over the past two offseasons.

The Charlotte Hornets were once thought of as a team that could enter the luxury tax because of the hefty price to re-sign free agent Miles Bridges. That all changed when the forward was charged with three counts of felony domestic violence. With his future in the NBA uncertain, the Hornets could enter next offseason with a projected $27 million in room (including the free agent hold of P.J. Washington). However to have room, the Hornets would need to renounce the $16.2 million cap hold of Bridges.

The Cavaliers' future cap space will be determined by the futures of restricted free agent Collin Sexton (who remains unsigned this summer) and Caris LeVert, who is extension eligible this year. If neither player is on the roster next season, Cleveland could have up to $28 million in room.

The Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs and Orlando Magic have built their rosters through the draft with a combined 24 players on first-round scale contracts for next season. The low salaries could see each team have a minimum of $60 million in cap space in 2023.

The Indiana Pacers saw the offer sheet on restricted free agent Deandre Ayton matched and currently have $30 million in room. That number is expected to double next offseason if Myles Turner does not sign an extension and becomes an unrestricted free agent.

The Lakers go from a luxury tax team after three consecutive seasons to a team below the cap. How much cap space Los Angeles has will be based on the future of LeBron James.

The Memphis Grizzlies once again are positioned to have cap space. However, as the past two years have proven, the Grizzlies are more inclined to retain their own free agents (Tyus Jones) rather than add via free agency. Memphis could have close to $27 million if it does not retain Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have $90 million committed to Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards but could still have $37 million in room available. Because the first year of an Edwards extension would not start until 2024, next offseason represents the last opportunity for the Timberwolves to have cap flexibility with this core.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have six players on first-round scale contracts and could have $34 million in room with the dead money for Kemba Walker and JaMychal Green coming off the books (along with the expiring contract of Derrick Favors).

The Sacramento Kings have more than $30 million in expiring contracts this season and could have $24 million in room next July.

Cap flexibility in Utah is fluid because of the uncertainty of Donovan Mitchell. With Mitchell on the roster, the Jazz could have up to $36 million in cap space. That number will only increase if the All-Star is traded and Utah doesn't bring back significant long-term salary in return.

The championship window in Golden State

For a second consecutive season, the payroll in Golden State is expected to exceed $350 million in salary and tax penalties.

If contract extensions are reached with Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green (who has a player option for 2023-24), that number could reach a previously unheard of $400 million.

Poole is set to be a restricted free agent next summer while Wiggins will be unrestricted.

Green has two years left on his existing deal, which pays $25.8 million this year with the $27.6 million option in 2023-24. He can sign an extension this summer, but the rules of the CBA prevent him from signing a deal that would pay him less than what the option year currently pays in the first year of an extension.

That means if the Warriors and Green entertain talks on a new contract this year, the first-year salary in 2023-24 has to be at a minimum $27.6 million if the player option is removed. There are no restrictions relating to declining salary beyond the first year of an extension.

Klay Thompson is extension eligible up until Oct. 17, and Golden State can add three more additional years on top of the two seasons left on his contract.

Counting Green's option, the Warriors are right at the $161 million tax threshold for 2023-24. If Wiggins extends for a starting salary of $25 million and Poole signs at $20 million, the Warriors would owe $201 million toward the luxury tax. That, combined with more than $200 million in salary, would make Golden State the first $400 million team in league history.

"What I'm saying is to assume that we would go 4-500 million dollars at this time, it's not possible," owner Joe Lacob told Tim Kawakami of The Athletic. "We're not far from it. I'm just saying you can't expect those kinds of numbers, unless we were to raise everyone's ticket prices immensely, and I don't think anyone wants that."

Lacob was recently fined $500K after he made it clear on the Point Forward Podcast hosted by Andre Iguodala and Evan Turner that he is unhappy that the Warriors are being penalized for building a roster through the draft.

"The truth is, we're only $40 million more than the luxury tax. Now, that's not small, but it's not a massive number. We're $200 million over in total because most of that is this incredible penal luxury tax. And what I consider to be unfair and I'm going to say it on this podcast and I hope it gets back to whoever is listening. Obviously, it's self-serving for me to say this, but I think it's a very unfair system because our team is built by ... all top eight players are all drafted by this team."

The Warriors do have a strong record in the draft, but it should be mentioned that part of the reason their tax penalty is so high is because of the Kevin Durant signing in 2016 and the trades following his departure that brought them Wiggins in 2020. If neither transaction happens, the likelihood is that the Warriors are not in the luxury tax four out five seasons and are not a repeater tax team.

Kyrie Irving and James Harden

The former Brooklyn teammates (albeit briefly) are looking to reestablish themselves as players worthy of a max contract in 2023.

After finding limited free agent and trade options in late June, Irving opted into his $36.5 million deal for this season and will become an unrestricted free agent in 2023 -- assuming he doesn't sign an extension with the Nets or a team he is traded to.

One date to keep an eye on for Irving -- and any pending free agent -- involved in trade talks is Jan. 30. If Irving is traded after that date, the maximum extension a new team can offer is two additional years at a 5% raise, significantly less than what a max contract would be in free agency.

Harden took one of the bigger pay cuts in league history when he declined his $47.4 million player option only to sign a new contract that starts at $33 million.

The $14.4 million cut allowed the Philadelphia 76ers to stay below the $156.9 million hard cap and sign his former Houston Rockets teammates P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr..

"I had conversations with [76ers president] Daryl [Morey] and it was explained how we could get better and what the market value was for certain players," Harden told Yahoo Sports. "I told Daryl to improve the roster, sign who we needed to sign and give me whatever is left over."

But what happens if Harden continues to struggle on the court? Would the 76ers still reward him for sacrificing money this season?

As Adrian Wojnarowski reported, the NBA has opened up an investigation for possible tampering and salary cap circumvention as it relates to the structure of the new Harden contract, looking into whether there is a handshake agreement on a contract for next offseason.

Harden has a player option in 2023-24 and can recoup most of the lost earnings in 2023 with a contract that starts at $46.7 million.

Philadelphia could be in position to add other free agents next summer if they find a home for the last year of Tobias Harris' contract in a trade without taking back significant salary.

However, in order to do so, the 76ers would either need Harden to opt into his $35.6 million contract or decline his option but sign a new long-term contract at a comparable annual salary.

Will a new CBA impact free agency?

The NBA and the players' association have until Dec. 15 to mutually opt out of the current collective bargaining agreement. However, if either side does so, that does not necessarily mean we are heading toward a work stoppage next July.

The two sides have had 11 years of labor peace, and after withstanding two years of financial hardship due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the league brought in a record $8.99 billion in basketball-related income in 2021-22.

"The numbers did surprise me to a certain degree because it exceeded projections, and the projections represent where we think our business is going," commissioner Adam Silver said during summer league. "I think it's quite remarkable from where we came 2½ years ago."

Of course there will be minor tweaks to the current CBA -- the age limit, revenue sharing and adjustments to the luxury tax -- but do not expect a major overhaul.

Should we expect more extensions before the season starts in October and into the regular season?

The trend we saw last season of players securing guaranteed money before hitting free agency should continue this offseason and into the regular season.

Beyond the 11 rookies who signed extensions off their first-round scale deals, an additional 21 veterans agreed to long-term contracts to bypass free agency.

We are only a third of the way to reaching that number this offseason (four rookies and eight veterans) but the slow pace is partially a function of restrictions on when a player can sign a new deal, particularly for those who were recently traded.

CJ McCollum, Jerami Grant and Christian Wood are in a holding pattern because they are limited by trade restrictions. For a period of six months from when the trade was completed, a player can only add three years to their contract (including what is left on the original one) and are limited to a 5% increase.

Starting on Aug. 8, McCollum can add on three additional seasons for $139.2 million in new money.

Starting on Christmas Day, Wood can agree to a four-year, $77 million extension with the Mavericks. Two weeks later (Jan. 7), Grant can ink a four-year, $133 million extension with Portland.

Some additional names to keep an eye on include Seth Curry, Nikola Vucevic, Maxi Kleber, Myles Turner, Dillon Brooks, Larry Nance Jr., Harrison Barnes, Jakob Poeltl and Kyle Kuzma.

What theme should we keep an eye on?

Keep an eye on the group of players who are eligible for rookie extensions.

We have already seen Zion Williamson, Ja Morant and Darius Garland -- the Nos. 1, 2 and 5 picks in the 2019 draft, respectively -- agree to max extensions in the first week of July.

The three decisions were not surprising even with Williamson missing all of last season due to a foot injury (the contract is heavily protected if the former No. 1 pick suffers a catastrophic injury).

What did come as a surprise was No. 29 pick Keldon Johnson agreeing to a four-year, $74 million ($6 million in additional unlikely bonuses) with the Spurs before the month of July ended.

Johnson joins Boston Celtics center Robert Williams III as the only two players to agree to non-max rookie extensions in the first month of free agency in the past five years.

The Johnson extension should serve as a sign that teams are willing to take an aggressive approach now and not wait until the Oct. 17 extension deadline to come to terms on a deal -- or wait until that player becomes a restricted free agent next July, when the cap is expected to rise.

By waiting until next offseason, teams risk paying a higher premium on their own player or perhaps having to match an offer sheet from one of the 13 teams with cap space.

There have been only two offer sheets since 2020 (Bogdan Bogdanovic and Deandre Ayton) and that number would likely increase when more teams have money to spend.

One stumbling block, however, could be extension candidates linked to a possible trade.

By extending shooting guard Tyler Herro before Oct. 15, the Heat would struggle to fit him into a trade because of the poison-pill restriction in the contract.

For example, if Herro signed a four-year, $110 million extension with Miami, his outgoing salary in a trade would be $5.7 million (his fourth-year salary) and the incoming salary for the new team would be $23.3 million (the average of the extension and the last year of the rookie scale contract).

Out of the 179 players with a poison pill restriction, only one (Devin Harris in 2008 to New Jersey) has been traded.

What about players who are rookie extension eligible in 2023?

The 2020 draft class could feature the fewest rookie max extensions in league history: two.

Besides Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball, there are no players drafted in the first round who have justified a five-year, $202.5 million contract with their play in their first two seasons.

If Edwards is indeed extended, Minnesota would be committed to $130 million between Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert in 2024-25.

Ball would become the first Charlotte player to receive a rookie max contract under the watch of owner Michael Jordan.

How many teams project to be in the luxury tax?

The Warriors are not the only team that will pay a significant tax penalty in 2023-24.

Because of the trade to acquire Norman Powell last February and the new contracts for Robert Covington, Nicolas Batum and Ivica Zubac, the Clippers are a tax team for the fourth consecutive season.

However, instead of paying a $135 million penalty, the Clippers will now owe $175 million because of the repeater penalty (four years straight or four out of five seasons).

The Clippers and Warriors could spend close to $800 million in salary and tax penalties for just one season.

Unlike the Warriors, who have decisions with their own free agents, the Clippers are locked in with their roster and return 13 players next season.

Despite the gap in pay disparity, the non-tax teams will continue to benefit from the high spending.

Teams that are below the tax in the next three seasons (including last year), stand to receive over $30 million in tax distribution from teams paying a penalty.

The number of teams in the tax next season is projected to decrease from 11 to seven (Golden State, LA Clippers, Boston, Dallas, Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Phoenix).

Are there any players who are supermax eligible?

Unlike Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, who reached the supermax criteria by winning MVP in 2020-21 but had to wait a year to sign his $270 million contract in July, there are no players in that category entering the 2022-23 season.

The Celtics, Jayson Tatum earned All-NBA honors in 2021-22 and will become supermax eligible if he earns All-NBA once again in 2022-23. However, Tatum would have to wait until the 2024 offseason to sign a five-year, $298 million extension. He is ineligible next offseason because he is one year short of the years of service criteria.

Jaylen Brown, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet could become supermax eligible by earning All-NBA honors in 2022-23 and will have reached the years of service criteria to ink the new deal next offseason.

Brown is in a unique situation. Starting on Oct. 1 and up until the last day prior to the start of the regular season, he is eligible to sign a three-year, $119.5 million extension. However, that is $123 million less than what he could earn on a five-year deal with the Celtics by waiting to become a free agent in 2024 -- and $63 million less than what he'd get on a four-year deal with another team.

If Brown doesn't sign an extension and is named All-NBA in 2023 or 2024, he would become eligible to sign a five-year, $283 million contract with the Celtics.

If he did sign an extension this offseason -- or he was traded to another team before the end of the year -- Brown would no longer be supermax eligible, even if he achieved All-NBA status this season.

Siakam was voted All-NBA in 2021-22, but because he is short of the years requirement (a player must have seven years of service, Siakam has six), he needs to earn All-NBA in 2023 to remain supermax eligible. He can currently sign a three-year, $135.7 million extension before the start of the regular season.

VanVleet is also eligible to sign a three-year, $88.7 million extension if the 2023-24 player option is exercised or a four-year, $114.2 million extension that would decline his player option.

Like Brown and Siakam, VanVleet would lose the supermax option if he takes the guaranteed money now instead of rolling the dice that another All-Star season could possibly be parlayed into an All-NBA nod. However, despite being a first-time All-Star in 2022, VanVleet earned only one All-NBA vote following the season.

As for the rookie extensions, Morant, Williamson and Garland can bump up their first-year salary from 25% of the cap to 30% by being voted All-NBA first team (or winning MVP or Defensive Player of the Year). Morant and Garland will also see a $38 million increase in total salary from the original $193 million extension if they are voted second-team or third-team All-NBA.

The 2023 free agent class

Franchise: LeBron James

All-Star: Kyrie Irving, Draymond Green (P), James Harden (P), Andrew Wiggins, Khris Middleton (P) and Fred VanVleet (P)

Top starter: De'Andre Hunter (R), Nikola Vucevic, Christian Wood, Myles Turner, Tyler Herro (R), D'Angelo Russell, RJ Barrett (R), Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes, Bojan Bogdanovic, Kyle Kuzma (P), Kristaps Porzingis (P) and Jordan Poole (R)

Starter: Bogdan Bogdanovic (P), Al Horford, Seth Curry, P.J. Washington (R), Caris LeVert, Kevin Porter Jr. (R), Reggie Jackson, Russell Westbrook, Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks, Brandon Clarke (R), Brook Lopez, Matisse Thybulle (R), Jae Crowder, Cameron Johnson (R), Josh Hart (P), Nassir Little (R), Jakob Poeltl, Gary Trent Jr. (P) and Will Barton

Key reserve: Danilo Gallinari (P), Grant Williams (R), TJ Warren, Kelly Oubre Jr.. Mason Plumlee, Ayo Dosunmu (R), Andre Drummond (P), Derrick Jones Jr. (P), Coby White (R), Kevin Love, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, Bruce Brown (P), Jeff Green, Alec Burks (T), Hamidou Diallo, Cory Joseph, Nerlens Noel (T), Donte DiVincenzo (P), Kenyon Martin Jr. (R), Oshae Brissett, John Wall (T), Talen Horton-Tucker (P), Stanley Johnson, Damian Jones (P), Kendrick Nunn, Lonnie Walker IV, Danny Green, Xavier Tillman (R), Victor Oladipo (P), Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Omer Yurtseven, Joe Ingles, Wesley Matthews, Naz Reid, Jaxson Hayes (R) Cam Reddish (R), Derrick Rose (T), Darius Bazley (R), Derrick Favors, JaMychal Green, Terrence Ross, Shake Milton, Georges Niang, Josh Okogie, Dario Saric, Justise Winslow, Terence Davis, Alex Len, Tre Jones (R), Josh Richardson, Isaiah Roby, Otto Porter Jr. (P), Malik Beasley (T), Patrick Beverley, Jordan Clarkson (P), Rudy Gay (P), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (R) and Rui Hachimura (R)

(P) = Player option | (T) = Team option | (R) = Restricted

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:19 pm    Post subject:

With that much potential cap space next offseason it is easy to see why no one wants Russ’ $47 mil. It will be interesting to see if anyone bites on Harris’ ending contract next offseason.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:00 am    Post subject:

Hey…maybe worth a mention, its been a minute since LABron’s current deal was eligible for an extension. Why the hesitation? Extend already, is dude looking to make us his ex…why is he adding more tension to our already precarious situation? Isn’t this something that needs more attention, Laker nation?

LAbron could be LAveraging his extension timeline to see more pressing matters addressed before he puts ink to paper. Plus that same bag will be waiting for him next summer as well.

If he extends now, it will be a 2yr 97.1m
Yr1: 46.7m (mandatory 105% raise based off his previous annual of 44.5m)
Yr2: 50.5m (8% annual escalator as a full bird player)

Also, he has till June 2023 to sign off on that max extension. The extension can only be for 2yrs (since this current 2022/23 season counts as an additional year to any extension he signs) due to the Over-38 rule applying to any deal 4yrs+ in length. So the current expiring year + 2 extension years leads to a max 3 yr deal which won’t triggering the Over-38 rule. And if he agrees to an extension, he has to also accept the current parameters of his present deal which does not include a no-trade clause (NTC).

However, if he waits till July 2023 for his present deal to expire, then he can ink a new (up to) 3yr 154.5m
Yr 1: 47.6m (35% max based off 10% max increase to current salary cap)
Yr 2: 51.4m (8% annual escalator as a full bird player)
Yr 3: 55.5m (8% annual escalator w/ player option structuring a 2+1 deal)

These max figures are based off a 136m salary cap (which at this point seems highly probable). He can also include a NTC within it and it can be up to 3yrs in length since the Over-38 rule doesn’t apply towards it. Also that final 3rd year can include a player option.

Coon FAQ: The following chart indicates what free agent contracts are subject to the Over-38 rule, and which years are zero years. For example, if a 35-year-old Qualifying Veteran Free Agent (a player with full Bird rights) re-signs with his prior team for five seasons, then his contract is classified as Over-38, and the fifth season is considered a zero year. "N/A" indicates that the contract is not considered Over-38 because it is specifically excluded from the Over-38 rule in the CBA.


Age         4 year contract   5 year contract   Nonbird 4yr
34           N/A                 5*              N/A
35/36        N/A                 5                4
36+         4                 4 and 5             4

* If he signs before October 1 and his birthday is October 1 or earlier.

Coon FAQ: A no-trade clause can be negotiated into a new contract if the player has been in the NBA for at least eight seasons, and has played for the team with which he is signing for at least four seasons.

A no-trade clause cannot be negotiated into an extension, unless player's existing contract or extension already contained a no-trade clause.

Essentially he has more incentive to wait on a new deal rather than take a max extension now.

A key date would be Dec 15th since a vote can be conducted to opt out from
the current CBA. And if the vote in favor of opting out of it, the 2022/23 season then becomes the final season under this current version of the CBA. If the salary cap/max contracts are impacted by a new CBA, then it would be in Bron’s best interest to wait at least till Dec 15th to see how that vote turns out.

As for the NTC, Bron can be armed with the leverage in dictating if & where he gets traded to. If Bronny ends up going anywhere else instead of the Lakers, then we can facilitate a trade to his new team where he will be more willing to to give his consent via the NTC. FYI: Bronny is projected to be a rookie for the 2024/25 season.

Lastly with a new 3 yr deal next summer, he can get that last big bag before he fades into retirement. Bron will be turning 41 during the 2025/26 season in that potential 3yr max deal he can sign next summer.

The only reasons he would elect to ink an extension is to protect himself from injury impacting his next bag and to show a commitment towards our FO, in effect surrendering his LAverage in having management commit more salary/taxes to surround him with a winner.

However, he has 55.5m reasons to wait this out.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2022 8:51 pm    Post subject:

So LABron decided to go with door #1 (extension) instead of door #2 (new deal next summer).

So an early preview to our books next summer…

1) LABron 46.7m* or 47.6m (depending on cap going up to 136m next year)
2) AD 40.6m
3) THT 11m (player option)
4) MaxC 1.7m
5) 2023 1st lower pick swap w/NO (assuming in 20-30 range) ~3m caphold
6) 2023 LA 2nd rounder 1.1m caphold
7) 2023 Chicago 2nd rounder 1.1m caphold
8) Damien 2.6m (player option)
9) Reaves RFA QO 2.1m
10-12) 3 incomplete roster charges @1.1m per 3.3m
= team salary of 113.2m - 114.1m;
= cap space of up to 21.9m on a projected 136m salary cap if we renounce all our impending FAs (including Russ);
up to 33.3m in cap space if THT/Damien opt out and we renounce their bird rights
*Bron’s current max extension in yr1 observes 105% of Bron’s previous salary ie 44.5m for the current 2022/23 season on a currently projected 133m salary cap; Bron’s 1st yr in his extension would be 46.7m since a 35% max on a projected 133m salary cap (ie 46.55m) would be lower than that 105% number

After using up our cap space, we can then turn to the room MLE projected to be 5.9m on a 136m salary cap

Note: the projected 136m salary cap is based off the max it could be next year under the current CBA (ie as much as 10% increase in annual cap hikes). However, if the vote on Dec 15, 2022 turns out to be where they opt out of the current CBA, then next summer can see entirely new projections to the salary cap which can be greater than the 136m projection that it can max out to currently.

This is entirely speculation on my part, but this could be the case based off these comments made by both Woj & Shams in reporting LABron’s extension today.

Adrian Wojnarowski
The deal can increase to $111 million if the salary cap in 2023-2024 rises to a substantially higher number.

Shams Charania
LeBron James’ deal is worth up to $111 million over two years based on salary cap rises.

If that were the case, then his 2yr extension should break down as such:
2023/24: 53.4m (based off 120% max raise off of Bron’s current 44.5m
2024/25: 57.7m (player option w/ 8% annual escalator
= 2yr 111.1m

Note, that this could also imply that the projected salary cap for the 2023/24 season could be about 152.5m based on a 35% max extension, which would allow Bron to see his potential max reached based off a max 120% increase to his current salary of 44.5m for the current 2022/23 season. Of course that changes our projected 2023 cap space next summer to about 38.5m or up to 49.9m (via a THT/Damien opt out).

Also the current CBA could remain without an opt out vote on Dec 15, 2022 and if that were to occur, a new CBA would not kick in till the 2024/25 season. So the only way for LABron’s extension to get up to 111m, would be if the 2024/25 season sees a salary spike. His 2yr extension would then be as such:
2023/24: 47.6m (based off 35% max player of max 136m cap in current CBA)
2024/25: 63.4m (based on 35% max player of new salary cap/CBA)
= 2yr 111m

Implying the 2024/25 salary cap could climb to as much as 181.1m, after the current CBA expires after the 2023/24 season (observing only 10% annually salary cap hikes).
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:22 am    Post subject:

Interesting stuff on those alternate cap projections. Could they therefore be within striking distance for Kyrie? I could even see them using their pick next summer to get rid of THT's deal if they are confident.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:47 am    Post subject:

So with the LeBron extension, how much cap space would we have next summer if we are able to trade THT for an expiring contract?
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:11 am    Post subject:

^@G: I believe Ky on a short-term max deal is doable. But is ownership willing to get taxed “repeatedly” during these next 3 years? If they are, Ky is a distressed asset as is and is gettable with limited resources we do have. But a part of me cannot ignore that we’re being used in this to get Ky an extension so that he can live out his days with Kev in BK.

@cital: look at my last post for the details, but roughly 30m on a projected 136m salary cap (fyi: currently it’s at 133m) if THT is the only one that isn’t accounted for next summer. Of course we would have to renounce the rights the expired player we traded THT for to have that cap space open up.

Aug 29th: 2.7m Gasol TPE expiration
Oct 18th: opening night & rosters must be trimmed down to 15 max by then
Dec 15th: FAs signed this summer (ie Walker + all our vet mins) can be traded & vote to opt out of current CBA
Jan 3rd: 1.7m Rondo TPE expiration
Jan 7th: deadline to waive Reaves/Gabriel ie must waive nonguaranteed players so they can pass thru waivers and not count as a dead cap hit on team’s cap sheet
Jan 10th: Reaves/Gabriel become fully guaranteed deals ie league cut-down date where all nonguaranteed base salary becomes guaranteed if not waived & all unused exceptions (except vet min & DPEs) begin to prorate downwards
Feb 9th: in-season Trade deadline for the 2022/23 season
Feb 17th: 6 month no-trade window expires on LABron’s extension; note that this date falls after the in-season trade deadline, so Bron can only be traded after the regular season ends and if/when the Lakers get disqualified from the postseason
Feb 19th: All-star game
April 9th: 2022/23 regular season ends
April 11-14th: play-in tourney
April 15th: 2022/23 postseason begins
June 22nd: NBA draft
June 29th: THT/Damien player options deadline
June 30th: Reaves qualifying offer RFA deadline

Maxed out 2023/24 Salary Cap projections (under current CBA)
Cap: 136m
Tax: 165.3m
Apron: 173m
35% max: 47.6m
30% max: 40.8m
25% max: 34m
ntMLE: 11.6m
tMLE: 7.2m
rMLE: 5.9m
BAE: 4.5m
VM: 2.1m
IR/RM: 1.1m
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