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Mike@LG
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:08 pm    Post subject: Stock Market Thread

I am not a financial advisor. I'm a total amateur that started not even 6 months ago but did some research and did well.

Anyone else in the stock market? Anyone expecting a mini crash of sorts because the market has been riding highs for so long with MACD, RSI, Volume indicators being awfully high? Or just ignoring it altogether?
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:42 pm    Post subject:

if you are just holding stock and especially just indexes or ETFs I wouldnt be too concerned about trying to jump out before a dip. Studies show people rarely come out ahead trying to time a crash.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:50 pm    Post subject:

audioaxes wrote:
if you are just holding stock and especially just indexes or ETFs I wouldnt be too concerned about trying to jump out before a dip. Studies show people rarely come out ahead trying to time a crash.


Would you happen to have a link to these studies?

I pulled the $ already. The ETFs I'm usually involved in are highly concentrated and not as heavily diversified.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:50 pm    Post subject:

I'm in the stock market.

I'm heavily invested right now in pandemic affected stocks - gasoline, airlines, Casinos and hotels. Compared to a year ago, they are mostly, and significantly, undervalued. They've been going up slowly but surely, but they are still nowhere close to their peaks of a year ago generally. Like a lot of people, waiting for the economy to open up fully and expect those stocks to shoot up. Already seeing it a bit with the gas company stocks.

Another long-term stock are marijuana companies. They have mostly been fools gold for the last few years, but I'm willing to bet on a few, especially with a dem administration coming in who is less likely to enforce fed laws in states that allow for marijuana sales. I have some money in TLRY and CGC. They are starting to make some good movement.

Short term, I've looked at car companies - primarily GM and Ford. I've seen their advances with electric and hybrid cars, and wondering if that might give them a great market share in the next year. We'll see.

Finally, also have money in some other typical blue chips (like Disney, Microsoft, etc.) Those are long, long term investments. Won't touch them for decades.

My portfolio is up about 10% the past 6 months (after taking a hit in March, leaving the market in April and then returning around July or so), so not bad, although I'm sure a lot of people have done much better. A lot of Tesla millionaires out there right now. My only real failure has been Alibab - the chinese reigned them in and I'm suffering as a result. Not willing to put out because I'd take a big hit, so waiting for them to bounce back. But for Alibaba, I'd probably be up 20%.

Assuming you stay in, any tips you got Mike? Had been meaning to ask you actually. I, for one, agree that you shouldn't time a crash. However, I think its smart to try to find historically undervalued stocks that haven't bounced back yet in industries/companies that are likely to not go away.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:56 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
Any tips you got Mike? Had been meaning to ask you actually.

I'm naturally a car guy and focus only on 1 sector, which is tech. Thanks to my gf who has a wide variety of interests, we took an online class about learning the market.

Things changed drastically when I ventured into options in November. That made my portfolio go up from 10%/20% to 200% from August.

I watch the Come Up Series on YT and am on that kind of growth strategy. If you plan to watch that, I highly recommend starting at a relative beginning and catching up on the 5 linked episodes to learn through fundamentals (and what not) and then go to the most recent for analysis.

After tech, it's consumer discretionary, but that's it. I don't see Tesla as a car company and haven't for awhile, hence it's valuation going WAY about other car companies. I'm mostly in tech oriented ETFs with concentration that I like a lot.

Also fwiw, I don't like to diversify too much. I figure my ETFs are already the diversification that I need.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:04 pm    Post subject:

I have some put options on Luminar Technologies (LAZR) but am otherwise all in cash in my portfolio. My thinking is that we’re in a bubble right now and the crash is inevitable, so I’m waiting for it to happen so I can buy back in.

Kicking myself for not buying Moderna at 110 a couple of weeks ago— now at 128.

I have no idea how Tesla is at 850. I wrote a report recommending shorting it at 25 seven years ago.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:07 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
I have no idea how Tesla is at 850.


Expanding into other areas outside of the automotive world
Competiving vs China's EVs
Tech/chips for future software upgrades in future vehicles
Rumors of a $25k Tesla in the "nearish" future

It's not a car company. It's a tech company that started out by making cars.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:11 pm    Post subject:

Invested in what I know which is tech and transportation. Not brave enough like my friend to dump large sums of money into marijuana stocks or medical fields.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:12 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
My thinking is that we’re in a bubble right now and the crash is inevitable


That's what I mean by the MACD and RSI indicators in the market being too grossly high. Usually it hangs at that kind of volume for a bit, but the drop is precipitous.

It also matters how much the government slowly withdraws money from institutions as well. If they do it in large chunks, the market is going to hurt.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:23 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
My thinking is that we’re in a bubble right now and the crash is inevitable


That's what I mean by the MACD and RSI indicators in the market being too grossly high. Usually it hangs at that kind of volume for a bit, but the drop is precipitous.

It also matters how much the government slowly withdraws money from institutions as well. If they do it in large chunks, the market is going to hurt.


Interest rates can’t remain at zero for forever. I also think there will be gridlock in Congress if the Democrats don’t abolish the filibuster, so any stimulus will be watered down.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:24 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
I have no idea how Tesla is at 850.


Expanding into other areas outside of the automotive world
Competiving vs China's EVs
Tech/chips for future software upgrades in future vehicles
Rumors of a $25k Tesla in the "nearish" future

It's not a car company. It's a tech company that started out by making cars.


Right, but the earnings simply are not there to justify the price.
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Mike@LG
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:36 pm    Post subject:

CandyCanes wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
I have no idea how Tesla is at 850.


Expanding into other areas outside of the automotive world
Competiving vs China's EVs
Tech/chips for future software upgrades in future vehicles
Rumors of a $25k Tesla in the "nearish" future

It's not a car company. It's a tech company that started out by making cars.


Right, but the earnings simply are not there to justify the price.


Oh, earnings have nothing to do with that anymore, especially on companies with giant growth strategies that are basically economic moats.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 3:25 pm    Post subject:

If you think we're in a bubble just don't be as aggressive. Look for longer term holdings.

I'm not a professional but my work involves dealing with pro's on a daily basis. Quite a bit of strategy is based on where you are in your life, how much risk you want to take, how active/passive you are with trading. So you need to figure out your comfort zone. Personally, if I'm day trading something I'm buying something I also wouldn't mind keeping long term if I need to. So pretty low risk and peace of mind for me.

In February, a friend of mine said he wanted to put some money into stocks. I queried him a bit on his goals/risk, so I told him he can't go wrong with Amazon. He bought it at I think around $1,800 at the time, which was coming off its highs of I think around $2,200 or so. So good value then, but something even if it tanked a little probably wouldn't hurt him on his first time investing. Thankfully, for him it was one that went up during the pandemic and are at $3,100+ now. But they are a moat company and not going anywhere, so if went down for some reason, it would rebound most likely. But it was something he could get behind.

I'm usually taking a long-term view. So I invest in moat companies, various index funds and what I know. I try to keep some cash on hand so I can buy the dip whenever that happens. That's how I play the crashes and corrections. If you look at the recession and the pandemic, if you are taking a long-term view, the markets actually bounced back pretty quickly from their lows. So don't panic sell. Buy something you know is a bargain when it dips and you will come out ahead in the long run.

For my son, who is in college and has a job, I think he can be more aggressive, but I know he gets a little anxious about things. So we did a couple of things the past year. He put money into a typical S&P 500 ETF. (Honestly, if you do nothing else, just do this and leave it there.) His plan will be to be disciplined and put a little into that every year. Starting at his age, he will be doing well by the time he's my age. Wish my dad told me this stuff. He bought it before the dip, so I made sure as a learning lesson that he took a look at the prices of things then, how much it was down, then made sure a couple months later he looked at it again when it bounced back up. Lesson, don't panic.

But we also took some gambles during the dip when it happened. He bought some cruiseline stock when it bottomed out, which I think has doubled from where he got it but is still 1/3 of the price it was before the nosedive. (I think once older couples get vaccinated, it will bounce back up assuming the cruiselines can hold on.) But that's something he can gamble/hold on to and probably do fine. Even a market correction won't hurt him from where he started.

Typically, I don't hedge too much against the downside, but rather looking for bargains when it happens and coming out the other end better for it. You can toss some money into some defensive funds if you want while you are still playing the bull side of things just as protection. Or you can jump in on the short-term trends. (For instance, you can get into some triple leveraged bear ETFs for certain sectors or the market as a whole if you really believe in something.)

I'd still play the trends with the pandemic right now since that is more certain than a bubble. There are still some sectors out there that should bounce back. And some that will likely see corrections when work from home stuff changes. Doing business and the economy will have changed a bit when we come out of this.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 3:28 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
CandyCanes wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
I have no idea how Tesla is at 850.


Expanding into other areas outside of the automotive world
Competiving vs China's EVs
Tech/chips for future software upgrades in future vehicles
Rumors of a $25k Tesla in the "nearish" future

It's not a car company. It's a tech company that started out by making cars.


Right, but the earnings simply are not there to justify the price.


Oh, earnings have nothing to do with that anymore, especially on companies with giant growth strategies that are basically economic moats.


Mike probably could have convinced me to get into Tesla (I should have) and I could have convinced him to get into The Trade Desk.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:17 pm    Post subject:

I'm just in a combination of index and sector funds. Just looked, and my 1Y rate of return as of 12/31/2020 is 24.2%.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:25 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
I have no idea how Tesla is at 850.


Expanding into other areas outside of the automotive world
Competiving vs China's EVs
Tech/chips for future software upgrades in future vehicles
Rumors of a $25k Tesla in the "nearish" future

It's not a car company. It's a tech company that started out by making cars.


Bullish on Tesla. The places they will go! (You've hit the key points, I won't go into the vertical integration as I'm sure you are aware.)

My viewpoints are very similar to yours as in less diversifying and I like ETF's. I have not gotten into options, but they've peaked my interest recently...more so into the market over the last 6 months as well. It's been great.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:39 pm    Post subject:

What do your guys' portfolios look like right now?
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Mike@LG
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:05 pm    Post subject:

DancingBarry wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
CandyCanes wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
I have no idea how Tesla is at 850.


Expanding into other areas outside of the automotive world
Competiving vs China's EVs
Tech/chips for future software upgrades in future vehicles
Rumors of a $25k Tesla in the "nearish" future

It's not a car company. It's a tech company that started out by making cars.


Right, but the earnings simply are not there to justify the price.


Oh, earnings have nothing to do with that anymore, especially on companies with giant growth strategies that are basically economic moats.


Mike probably could have convinced me to get into Tesla (I should have) and I could have convinced him to get into The Trade Desk.


You wouldn't have needed to convince me much. I know The Trade Desk is a great company. I narrow down my view into a form of SWOT but then project out 2 years, and through research, found a good way to figure out strike prices and just let it ride. It's easier for me. Get a great company, at the right time in the market, with an option 2 years out? I can set it and forget it. Take money from the option when I'm ready. I never wait full term.

I have a list of about 12 positions I do like, but they're mostly ETFs of course. If I were to just buy singular companies and hold onto them beyond 2 year term limits and go out 5-10 years, then I'd actually try to just make my own ETF anyway and be an amateur Cathie Wood.

Oddly enough, I actually stay away from the automotive market. I have a MUCH better feel for the tech world, because it's easier to see who the economic moats are, where the networks can be created, how they expand on each other, what companies are in position to buy "elite" small companies, and improve on growth/eliminate competition there.
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Last edited by Mike@LG on Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:07 pm    Post subject:

CandyCanes wrote:
What do your guys' portfolios look like right now?


Like I said, I withdrew out because I saw indicators in the market that I wasn't comfortable investing into.

But honestly, 5 positions max. Highly concentrated, mostly ETFs. Options only. Maybe 2 "volatile" stocks from great companies/etfs.

Also LS: The big hint is on my twitter profile
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:28 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
DancingBarry wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
CandyCanes wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
I have no idea how Tesla is at 850.


Expanding into other areas outside of the automotive world
Competiving vs China's EVs
Tech/chips for future software upgrades in future vehicles
Rumors of a $25k Tesla in the "nearish" future

It's not a car company. It's a tech company that started out by making cars.


Right, but the earnings simply are not there to justify the price.


Oh, earnings have nothing to do with that anymore, especially on companies with giant growth strategies that are basically economic moats.


Mike probably could have convinced me to get into Tesla (I should have) and I could have convinced him to get into The Trade Desk.


You wouldn't have needed to convince me much. I know The Trade Desk is a great company. I narrow down my view into a form of SWOT but then project out 2 years, and through research, found a good way to figure out strike prices and just let it ride. It's easier for me. Get a great company, at the right time in the market, with an option 2 years out? I can set it and forget it. Take money from the option when I'm ready. I never wait full term.

I have a list of about 12 positions I do like, but they're mostly ETFs of course. If I were to just buy singular companies and hold onto them beyond 2 year term limits and go out 5-10 years, then I'd actually try to just make my own ETF anyway and be an amateur Cathie Wood.

Oddly enough, I actually stay away from the automotive market. I have a MUCH better feel for the tech world, because it's easier to see who the economic moats are, where the networks can be created, how they expand on each other, what companies are in position to buy "elite" small companies, and improve on growth/eliminate competition there.


In agreement with Mike on all fronts. I also do the long term bit with a 401k, as well, hopefully it remains a nice safety blanket long term.

It comes down to your risk aversion, if volatility is a concern, picks such as Tesla, Square for example aren't a good match. I feel Apple is a safe return growth bet moving forward for example, and you avoid the volatility.

I tend to like technology products and innovation on the consumer products side, as I have a better intuition of it (experience, academics, interest).

Lots of options in the current environment, like Sanity mentioned Disney, great-pickup because Disney + is going to print money for them going forward.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:23 pm    Post subject:

^Apple is it's own economic moat. Just a very easy pick to go long term. Tesla is another one. Amazon. Google. Why go with FANG when TAGA is better.

That's also why I play concentrated ETFs with different weights of the companies I prefer. Don't need to play the risk of just playing 1 company. I almost think of ETFs as a basketball roster of Top 10 holdings. If an ETF has 8 of 10 All Stars, you know I'm taking that option.

I tend to pick more volatile stocks with greater range within ETFs. It helps to do the research on S-1s, projections onto the goals for the next quarter, and check on how they're doing. It gets me the movement I need when executing options and I have several time periods to opt out in the green with a certain goal in mind over a 2 year period.

I legit readjusted my strike prices on my positions anticipating a 30% drop or contraction before going back up again over 2 year terms. I have to fund my account again which is easy, and it only cost me opportunity cost. I hate having FOMO.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 3:21 pm    Post subject:

cannabis is a good play to get in with democrats running the show now, i pushed 100% gains in about a month with Tilray and recent switched over to ACB as I see more room to run with that
space companies might be the next big thing to go mainstream... Ive been holding NPA which is a space SPAC.
I like to steal plays from what ARK is investing in... PLTR, SUMO, MTLS, RAVN to name a few
people are really high on BB's future with their tech patents they been developing
for a pandemic recovery play I like CIM as a stock to sit in... its still down 50% from its pre-pandemic highs, not much more it can bottom down to, and you can collect some crazy good dividends while you hold
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 3:51 pm    Post subject:

What company are y'all using these days to do your trading? I was with TD Waterhouse in the late 90s, early 2000s. Managed to make it out of the tech crash of 2001 in the black but I haven't traded since. Any recommendations?
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 4:03 pm    Post subject:

Hawaiian Airlines, Redfin, MGM been very very good to me...the two tourism related ones due to dropping to a super affordable Covid price, and Redfin because pandemic or not, houses still need to be sold and can be done virtually.

Now, once everyone's vaccinated I might unload Redfin but Hawaii and Vegas aint goin anywhere...
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 6:41 pm    Post subject:

jonnybravo wrote:
What company are y'all using these days to do your trading? I was with TD Waterhouse in the late 90s, early 2000s. Managed to make it out of the tech crash of 2001 in the black but I haven't traded since. Any recommendations?


Switching to TD Ameritrade now.

Using Tradestation to buy options through the phone.
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