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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:38 pm    Post subject:

^ BPA, of course, but at some point it would be nice to see the Lakers get a bigger young player into the pipeline. Drafting another sub-6'5 guard may not be the best option given the team's need for big wings and true 5s during the regular season.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 25, 2021 9:13 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
^ BPA, of course, but at some point it would be nice to see the Lakers get a bigger young player into the pipeline. Drafting another sub-6'5 guard may not be the best option given the team's need for big wings and true 5s during the regular season.


I'm fuzzy how the next 5 years shake out for picks, but I do think LAL is just looking to add rotation players of value, at bare minimum. Unfortunately, in the late 1st, it's usually guards.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:29 pm    Post subject:

Settling in on a top eight:

Cade
Mobley
Green
Kuminga
Suggs
Springer
Keon
Moody

A pretty boring big board so far but there's a drop off after this group and I don't have an obvious outlier favorite in this year's draft to shake things up unless you count Springer who is absolutely a top-10 talent in this draft.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:50 pm    Post subject:

^I like that a lot actually. I'm just starting to think the G-League players are getting overrated on the idea of potential vs the NCAA players actually showing.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 25, 2021 4:58 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Settling in on a top eight:

Cade
Mobley
Green
Kuminga
Suggs
Springer
Keon
Moody

A pretty boring big board so far but there's a drop off after this group and I don't have an obvious outlier favorite in this year's draft to shake things up unless you count Springer who is absolutely a top-10 talent in this draft.

My #9-20 selections (for now) in alphabetical order:

Barnes
Vrenz B. (replacing Mathurin)
Cooper
Garuba
Giddey
J. Johnson
Jones
Kispert
Mann
Prkacin
Sengun
Wagner

Torn on leaving out younger wings with athleticism and some ball skills like Bouknight, Ziaire, or Christopher over a small guard like Sharife and a big who might not bring much rim protection in the mad Turk.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:19 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
^I like that a lot actually. I'm just starting to think the G-League players are getting overrated on the idea of potential vs the NCAA players actually showing.

I had Kuminga #2 coming out of HS and I'm hard pressed to give up on that initial evaluation plus athletic big wings with ball skills bring back so much value if they do hit.

Green actually moved up for me based on production and flashes of skillset in the G-League - the cutting and motion shooting raises his floor and makes him more valuable on his rookie deal until the initiator skills develop (if they do).
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:22 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
^I like that a lot actually. I'm just starting to think the G-League players are getting overrated on the idea of potential vs the NCAA players actually showing.

I had Kuminga #2 coming out of HS and I'm hard pressed to give up on that initial evaluation plus athletic big wings with ball skills bring back so much value if they do hit.

Green actually moved up for me based on production and flashes of skillset in the G-League - the cutting and motion shooting raises his floor and makes him more valuable on his rookie deal until the initiator skills develop (if they do).


Yeah, I guess with Kuminga, I saw the shot creation, and not the result; but then the thinking process goes straight into leading about potential vs. what i've seen.

Green was a mixed back for me. Really flexible/athletic/slithery finishes around the rim, long wind up into the pull up jumper, 2-dribble kind of wing, can't defend. I'm lower on both generally speaking, but not by much.

It makes it esp difficult for me when I think Intl players are relatively the same age, but have shown a ton more in "professional" leagues as well.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:32 pm    Post subject:

Re-watched Arkansas vs. Oral Roberts and Moses Moody underwhelmed me. Looks like a 10-15 prospect. Besides his shot being off (possibly worn down physically) he lacked quickness to beat his defender off the dribble and had to rely on bully ball to win in the short range. Did not show any ball handling skills to create space to get his shot off. Not sure how his defense will translate against NBA athletes.

Besides quitting on Duke has anyone heard of any red flags regarding Jalen Johnson's attitude or mental toughness? Just on athletic profile and bball skill I have him right alongside Green.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:41 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Settling in on a top eight:

Cade
Mobley
Green
Kuminga
Suggs
Springer
Keon
Moody

A pretty boring big board so far but there's a drop off after this group and I don't have an obvious outlier favorite in this year's draft to shake things up unless you count Springer who is absolutely a top-10 talent in this draft.

My #9-20 selections (for now) in alphabetical order:

Barnes
Vrenz B. (replacing Mathurin)
Cooper
Garuba
Giddey
J. Johnson
Jones
Kispert
Mann
Prkacin
Sengun
Wagner

Torn on leaving out younger wings with athleticism and some ball skills like Bouknight, Ziaire, or Christopher over a small guard like Sharife and a big who might not bring much rim protection in the mad Turk.


Mann is moving on up. Hope not out of the Lakers pick.

Garuba is starting to shoot the 3 ball with greater frequency. Put up 20 attempts in his last 6 games. Only made 7 but in his last 4 games he is 7 for 14.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:51 am    Post subject:

https://www.prospectiveinsight.com/post/the5pointplay-vol7

Vrenz is still the guy I want LAL to pick.

Article highlights why I like Trey Murphy III
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:24 am    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Re-watched Arkansas vs. Oral Roberts and Moses Moody underwhelmed me. Looks like a 10-15 prospect. Besides his shot being off (possibly worn down physically) he lacked quickness to beat his defender off the dribble and had to rely on bully ball to win in the short range. Did not show any ball handling skills to create space to get his shot off. Not sure how his defense will translate against NBA athletes.

Besides quitting on Duke has anyone heard of any red flags regarding Jalen Johnson's attitude or mental toughness? Just on athletic profile and bball skill I have him right alongside Green.


On the flip side, Moody optimistically turns into Khris Middleton. Same thing. First step, uses shoulder in the paint, and all gravity is based around the jumpshot. Khris didn't have a ton of burst at Texas Tech either.

As for Jalen, no flags, just a hitch in the jumper and rough ability to score in the halfcourt. That's also a guy that lacks burst, bullies in the paint, except, lacks a jumper too.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:29 am    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Re-watched Arkansas vs. Oral Roberts and Moses Moody underwhelmed me. Looks like a 10-15 prospect. Besides his shot being off (possibly worn down physically) he lacked quickness to beat his defender off the dribble and had to rely on bully ball to win in the short range. Did not show any ball handling skills to create space to get his shot off. Not sure how his defense will translate against NBA athletes.

Besides quitting on Duke has anyone heard of any red flags regarding Jalen Johnson's attitude or mental toughness? Just on athletic profile and bball skill I have him right alongside Green.

Johnson committed to playing his senior season at IMG Academy and then backed out during the pandemic to stay close to home and finish his senior season in Wisconsin. There are some pundits who have hinted at deeper issues with JJ, but it's hard to parse what's real from the social media salt at a kid choosing his professional future over the needs of Coach K.

I totally buy Moody's defense translating against pros. He lacks first step/vertical burst, but the footwork and lateral quickness are there along with the length, instincts, and dedication. He's going to need to shoot it to add more equity since he lacks the burst/wiggle/handle to consistently attack except against closeouts, but there's some surprising good in with the not so good in his profile: he only shot 57.6% at the rim on not great volume yet he also posted an impressive .482 FTr (6.9 FTA/40). A .568 TS% on 22% usage isn't eye popping, but for a projected role-player wing who looks kind of awkward when he puts the ball on the floor, that kind of production could hint at some potential scoring versatility as he gets older.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:39 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Re-watched Arkansas vs. Oral Roberts and Moses Moody underwhelmed me. Looks like a 10-15 prospect. Besides his shot being off (possibly worn down physically) he lacked quickness to beat his defender off the dribble and had to rely on bully ball to win in the short range. Did not show any ball handling skills to create space to get his shot off. Not sure how his defense will translate against NBA athletes.

Besides quitting on Duke has anyone heard of any red flags regarding Jalen Johnson's attitude or mental toughness? Just on athletic profile and bball skill I have him right alongside Green.


On the flip side, Moody optimistically turns into Khris Middleton. Same thing. First step, uses shoulder in the paint, and all gravity is based around the jumpshot. Khris didn't have a ton of burst at Texas Tech either.

As for Jalen, no flags, just a hitch in the jumper and rough ability to score in the halfcourt. That's also a guy that lacks burst, bullies in the paint, except, lacks a jumper too.

I buy Jalen's jumper becoming adequate and I think the slow first step issue is mitigated by having him play small ball C. The lateral quickness is there to switch and he has vertical pop along with what looks like more than sufficient standing reach to be a rim deterrent - the flashes of verticality were impressive - and the passing plus stocks point to some kind of bbiq.

My question with JJ is will he be satisfied being a 3rd option yeoman committed to bringing defensive effort against bigger dudes every night? You don't have to worry about that with Scottie even though I think Barnes has a lower offensive ceiling and is less likely to shoot than JJ.


ETA: was just thinking of the Middleton comp!
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:57 am    Post subject:

Yeah the thing I like about JJ is his ability to be a cerebral 4. Just enough handles to get to the rim from the high post/horns types, strength to finish, but more importantly, create a sense of gravity and gain advantage through his ability to read the floor and pass. I have mixed opinions about JJ but for LAL, it's a pass because he doesn't have a definitive scoring ability in the halfcourt.

Scottie Barnes I've been souring a ton lately too. Can't jump. Can't shoot. Defends 4/5 but not wings. Can't draw team help defensively on the drives.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:45 pm    Post subject:

Good lord, Franz is a baby. He's younger than Suggs!
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:53 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Yeah the thing I like about JJ is his ability to be a cerebral 4. Just enough handles to get to the rim from the high post/horns types, strength to finish, but more importantly, create a sense of gravity and gain advantage through his ability to read the floor and pass. I have mixed opinions about JJ but for LAL, it's a pass because he doesn't have a definitive scoring ability in the halfcourt.

Scottie Barnes I've been souring a ton lately too. Can't jump. Can't shoot. Defends 4/5 but not wings. Can't draw team help defensively on the drives.

I would love to have Scottie on my team, but to justify some of these top ten projections he either has to have more scoring skill/upside than I've seen from him or you have to think he's going to be an elite defender.

Some of his over hype feels a bit like folks undervaluing Draymond again - Green is a generational defender. It's hubris to bet on a young kid even getting close to Draymond defensively not to mention Dray landed in the perfect spot to maximize his talents.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 1:06 pm    Post subject:

If I was conducting a 2020 re-draft after only nine months, I simply wouldn't brush aside the sample size showing Wiseman as being quite mediocre compared to his peers.

Guys I'm still reluctant to buy in on: Bey, Quickley, Haliburton (as more than a role-player)

Guys I've bought in on: Stewart, McDaniels (he sure bought into being a role-player quick) - basically, Hopkins blows.

Guys I'm still sold on: Hayes, Okoro, Okongwu, Maxey, Kira, Vassell, Riller, Reed

Guys I'm now out on: Avdija, Nesmith

Some (far too early) vindication: LaMelo, Poku flashes, Flynn coming around, Bane & Tillman, and Toppin not being worth a lottery pick (though he's better than he's shown).
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:22 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Yeah the thing I like about JJ is his ability to be a cerebral 4. Just enough handles to get to the rim from the high post/horns types, strength to finish, but more importantly, create a sense of gravity and gain advantage through his ability to read the floor and pass. I have mixed opinions about JJ but for LAL, it's a pass because he doesn't have a definitive scoring ability in the halfcourt.

Scottie Barnes I've been souring a ton lately too. Can't jump. Can't shoot. Defends 4/5 but not wings. Can't draw team help defensively on the drives.

I would love to have Scottie on my team, but to justify some of these top ten projections he either has to have more scoring skill/upside than I've seen from him or you have to think he's going to be an elite defender.

Some of his over hype feels a bit like folks undervaluing Draymond again - Green is a generational defender. It's hubris to bet on a young kid even getting close to Draymond defensively not to mention Dray landed in the perfect spot to maximize his talents.


Yup. I didn't want to think of him in the Draymond mold, but rather Boris Diaw, except Diaw was an exceptional overall athlete even when he didn't show all of his vert at the NBA level. Barnes is a 4 at best, without a jumper?
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:25 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Good lord, Franz is a baby. He's younger than Suggs!


Yep hence the lottery talk. Ton of international experience too.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:41 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
If I was conducting a 2020 re-draft after only nine months, I simply wouldn't brush aside the sample size showing Wiseman as being quite mediocre compared to his peers.

Guys I'm still reluctant to buy in on: Bey, Quickley, Haliburton (as more than a role-player)

***Considering their draft positions they have showed enough for me to consider all 3 solid rotation players if not complementary starters. Quickley may be better suited off the bench long term.

Guys I've bought in on: Stewart, McDaniels (he sure bought into being a role-player quick) - basically, Hopkins blows.

***Both have adapted faster than I anticipated especially McDaniels who was one of my favs for the Lakers pick. They both have shown an aptitude for defense. Still believe McDaniels can become a top 5 player in this draft.

Guys I'm still sold on: Hayes, Okoro, Okongwu, Maxey, Kira, Vassell, Riller, Reed

***Hayes is still a big ? for me with his lack of athleticism, how his shot will develop and now the injury. Hard to judge Riller and Reed without seeing them play. Sold on the others.

Guys I'm now out on: Avdija, Nesmith

***Was not a fan of Nesmith considering all the hype he got last year for the small sample size. Avdija is hard to judge so far.

Some (far too early) vindication: LaMelo, Poku flashes, Flynn coming around, Bane & Tillman, and Toppin not being worth a lottery pick (though he's better than he's shown).

***You know how I feel about LaMelo.
Damn Poku looks so undernourished but the talent is there.
Bane was the missed opportunity for the Lakers pick.
Tillman same as Bane.
Toppin so true.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 5:25 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Good lord, Franz is a baby. He's younger than Suggs!


Yep hence the lottery talk. Ton of international experience too.


I have a hard time projecting a lottery pick when I don't see one high end skill or athletic attribute. Taken as a whole he is a nice prospect but more 20-25 I feel.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 5:35 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Good lord, Franz is a baby. He's younger than Suggs!


Yep hence the lottery talk. Ton of international experience too.


I have a hard time projecting a lottery pick when I don't see one high end skill or athletic attribute. Taken as a whole he is a nice prospect but more 20-25 I feel.


Talent by player doesn't determine lottery position.

Depth of talent at the top, does.

That's how guys like Deni Avidja go lottery.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:56 am    Post subject:

Man...Benn Mathurin shot 72% at the rim. Really wish the Lakers had a shot at him.

Red flag for Jalen Johnson - only 60% at the rim (54% assisted). For comparison, Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler shot similar or slightly better at the rim each of their college seasons as 6'2 guards.

Green flag for Franz - 67% as a freshman, 71% this season (around 40% assisted each season)

Green flag for Scottie - nearly 71% (only 23% assisted!). He also has some not bad pull-up jumper stats. Maybe he has more scoring upside than I'm giving him credit for?
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:38 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Man...Benn Mathurin shot 72% at the rim. Really wish the Lakers had a shot at him.

Red flag for Jalen Johnson - only 60% at the rim (54% assisted). For comparison, Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler shot similar or slightly better at the rim each of their college seasons as 6'2 guards.

Green flag for Franz - 67% as a freshman, 71% this season (around 40% assisted each season)

Green flag for Scottie - nearly 71% (only 23% assisted!). He also has some not bad pull-up jumper stats. Maybe he has more scoring upside than I'm giving him credit for?


I expect Mathurin to go mid first to lottery next year.

Yeah, That's Jalen Johnson. In the end, LAL may not be the best place for his development.

That's part of why Franz is lottery.

Scottie is hot or cold on NBA draft twitter. I'm on the cold side. Too many people doing Draymond/Diaw at PF/C comps. It's such a specific thing for a team, so most teams may not be the best for his development unless there's great off ball place + schemes. How many NBA teams have that?
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:40 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Good lord, Franz is a baby. He's younger than Suggs!


Yep hence the lottery talk. Ton of international experience too.


I have a hard time projecting a lottery pick when I don't see one high end skill or athletic attribute. Taken as a whole he is a nice prospect but more 20-25 I feel.


Talent by player doesn't determine lottery position.

Depth of talent at the top, does.

That's how guys like Deni Avidja go lottery.


Understand the reasoning and realities of the lottery but for prospect rankings especially top 10 I like to see at least 1 redeeming quality that can project to +.

As for Avdija the potential of being a point forward was a + for me as that would allow more flexibility in matching up with opponents. It was difficult to judge without full game action and he is not getting that opportunity with the Wizards. I had the same thought with Bonga.
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