🏈NFL SEASON THREAD/SUPER BOWL🏈
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:30 am    Post subject:

Ha, it's as if someone was reading my posts in Vegas. (I joke.) Earlier this morning, before I went to bed, I noted that Elijah Moore was only -135 to be chosen in the 1st Round, and I said to hammer that. Well, he's now listed at -325! In the prop bet market, you often see a little delay on the odds changing. News broke yesterday that Moore was seen as the WR4 by most teams, and the odds didn't change until the morning today, likely while I was sleeping.

Not to be outdone, my Harris/Williams/Etienne prop is down to 10-to-1 odds. Ian Rapoport reported this morning that some teams have Williams as their #1 RB.
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panamaniac
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:28 pm    Post subject:

Miami trades Ereck Flowers to the Washington {redacted}. Should open up more snaps for Robert Hunt and Solomon Kindley. I also think this means they aren't passing on Sewell if both Pitts and Chase are off the board.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:51 pm    Post subject:

panamaniac wrote:
Miami trades Ereck Flowers to the Washington {redacted}. Should open up more snaps for Robert Hunt and Solomon Kindley. I also think this means they aren't passing on Sewell if both Pitts and Chase are off the board.


I don't think that Ereck Flowers' presence on Miami's roster would have kept them from taking Sewell. I simply question whether or not that's what they would have done or will do. They apparently wanted to kick Robert Hunt inside to guard this year, which makes sense. Sewell absolutely makes sense for them; heck, I would have taken Sewell 3rd overall when Miami was in that spot. I think they moved back up to 6 thinking they could get one of Pitts or Chase. Now, perhaps they have realized that won't be the case and perhaps they will pivot to Sewell, and then go WR at 18, or attempt to trade back up from 18 to get a WR. (They have two 2nd rounders as well.) Still, though, I think they could like Waddle enough to go that route at 6, or a small trade back to still get Waddle.

There have now been a few mocks I've seen from reputable sources who are slotting Etienne for Buffalo at 30. They have serious needs at edge rusher and cornerback, but maybe they see Etienne as an Alvin Kamara-like receiving weapon out of the backfield that could rip off chunk plays because of the Bills' outstanding receivers, who take up space down the field. It's something I'm considering as I think about my final mock.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:08 pm    Post subject:

I noticed that Mac Jones is now up to -325 to be the third overall pick. It was -200 earlier today.
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adkindo
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:43 am    Post subject:

Quote:
Ian Rapoport
@RapSheet

The #Bucs are bringing back WR Antonio Brown per @MikeGarafolo and @TomPelissero, giving him a 1-year deal worth $3.1M.

8:01 AM · Apr 28, 2021


Per ESPN...

Quote:
Brown's deal could be worth up to $6.25 million, his agent said. He is guaranteed $3.1 million, including a $2 million signing bonus.
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:01 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
angrypuppy wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:

--I have 6 OL going, which is just under the 6.5 draft prop, and both the Over and Under are -120 now. It's certainly possible this number could go over, but with such a deep class, teams could choose to wait until Rounds 2-3, similar to how WR is so deep now.



That's why I picked Barmore to be over-drafted, and why I think teams may not jump on interior offensive linemen until the late second or third. Barmore at least flashed for a handful of playoff games, and has size and a good first step. The next best DTs look like late second round or early third round picks.

I still think teams will hunt down promising developmental LTs early. It's an ongoing critical and expensive to fill position.


It's interesting, this year's class is deep but there aren't a bunch of true, "he's a left tackle for sure" types. Sewell obviously is. But the #2 OL, Slater, may not be. The #3 guy, Vera-Tucker, is probably more of a guard. Darrisaw is a true left tackle. I think Sam Cosmi could be. But even a guy like Teven Jenkins, a dude I love, should be more of a right tackle or maybe even a guard at some point. Eichenberg could end up on the right side. Radunz might be a left tackle because his length is solid, but he's only 299 lbs. Spencer Brown is a 2nd-3rd Round prospect that is interesting because he's 6'8 and might be in that Jared Veldheer mold of tackle. Leatherwood probably ends up at guard. There are a lot of college tackles who seem destined to play guard in the NFL.



They really are developmental OTs in the generic sense, as most of them will likely end up as RTs, providing of course that they make the cut. The guys who'll get preference as the OTs that stand a better chance at playing LT. That's Radunz, Spencer Brown, James Hudson, and Walker Little. Radunz is the most ready out of the box, which is why he's a dark horse candidate for a late first round pick. The rest will take at least a season, possibly two.

There's also the controversial Josh Ball. He has late Day 3/UDFA written all over him. He had to leave Florida State due to date violence, transferring to a JC, then finished up at Marshall. Someone will take a chance on him, providing that they either clear or accept that huge red flag.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:42 am    Post subject:

I should add one more thought on the New England draft. I think the Denver trade improves the Patriot's odds of grabbing Justin Fields or Trey Lance.

Belichick spent lots of free agent money on WRs and receiving TEs. He pretty much had to as NE had the worst collection of both in the NFL. I do wonder whether Belichick is too stubborn for his own good. It made absolutely no sense to not trade Stephon Gilmore last season. Gilmore was the DPOY the previous season, was over 30, and was unhappy with his contract. Only a fool thought the Patriots were a playoff team at the deadline, and yet Belichick was reportedly insisting on a first round pick for Gilmore. That was just a colossal blunder. Potential draft capital flushed down the toilet.

I hope Belichick finds an attractive risk reward ratio and trades up for Lance or Fields. I could see him sitting on his hands and waiting for one of them to either drop far enough in order to execute the perfect, cheap trade.

Addendum: Jeff Howe reports that NE is in trade talks with Atlanta for the #4 pick.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:03 pm    Post subject:

Yeah, I just don't think ATL will end up doing that because dropping back to 15 is large. Maybe I'm wrong but I think they just take Pitts. However, I do think NE is a strong bet to trade up to either 7 or 8 for one of the QB's. Here's an interesting thought: let's say NE does trade up to 7 or 8 for one of Fields/Lance, and let's say Denver passes on a QB. Who gets that last remaining QB, and where? You'd think that the likely candidates would be Washington and Chicago, and that they'd probably have to trade up to do it. Would Denver be willing to move back 10 or 11 spots? I don't see Dallas, the Giants, or the Eagles moving down. Maybe the Chargers, if their top targets are gone. I could see Minnesota moving down from 14 since they don't have a 2nd Round pick, but not with Chicago, a division rival.

Ah, the intrigue!
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:41 pm    Post subject:

I think Atlanta is trying to shop the pick. I'm sure that leak was engineered by Atlanta to make it look like it came from NE, even down to using Howe who is a vet Patriot beat reporter. They looked at what SF paid, and figured that they might be able to extract something near it. In fact that's why Atlanta pretended to be interested in QBs, and feigned an internal debate over the merits of drafting one. Lots of noise. I'm sure Belichick called, but I'm also pretty sure he won't spend that kind of draft capital.

Could Belichick move up? Sure, maybe as high as the 7th spot, but even then it depends on the price.
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:55 pm    Post subject:

And yeah, my guess is that the teams most likely to make a play on that last QB are Chicago and WFT. Both squeaked into the playoffs with poor QBs. I think Rivera has more power within his franchise, if he likes the last man standing WFT will probably make the stronger offer.
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:01 pm    Post subject:

Bridgewater to the Donkeys has to mean Carolina all in on Darnold in my opinion.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:46 pm    Post subject:

LakerLanny wrote:
Bridgewater to the Donkeys has to mean Carolina all in on Darnold in my opinion.


That's been my assumption, yes.

I just saw this really interesting nugget on Twitter. A New England bombshell report?

Dale Arnold
@DaleEArnold
What I’ve been told, by a reliable source —-
@Patriots are working on a new contract for Jimmy G that could lead to a deal with @49ers. Same source who correctly told me Tom Brady had signed with @Buccaneers. Doesn’t mean it will get done, but they’re working on it.
4:28 PM · Apr 28, 2021·Twitter for iPad
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j-dawg
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:28 pm    Post subject:

Interesting. When healthy, I think he’s in that 10-15th best QB’s in the league range, when looking at what he did from his only healthy season as a starter. But what good is a QB who can’t stay healthy? Mac Jones still makes zero sense to me. If they were that down on Jimmy, they could’ve punted another year and waited on the possibility of a Kirk Cousins reunion with Shanahan, even though Kirk is guy who is more or less on the same level as Jimmy anyway, although healthier. It’s funny how barring something unforeseen, Mac Jones’ (if everything works out) is going to be... in that Kirk Cousins/Jimmy Garappolo range. If the Patriots could get Jimmy for a good price and restructured deal, that’s a win for them, and gives them a bridge between Brady and their next QB (whomever that may be).
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:21 am    Post subject:

SF allegedly offered the #3 pick (and additional goodies) to Green Bay for Aaron Rodgers. It seems plausible as GB has either refused or been reluctant to extend Rodgers, and Rodgers in turn doesn't sound particularly enthralled with Green Bay.
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:34 am    Post subject:

Boy, that escalated quickly.

Rodgers reportedly wants out of GB.
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panamaniac
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:11 pm    Post subject:

Rodgers displeasure with GB has been boiling since they took a QB in the first round last year.
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:13 pm    Post subject:

panamaniac wrote:
Rodgers displeasure with GB has been boiling since they took a QB in the first round last year.



That's what made it come to a full boil. The relationship has been waning for a few years now. Rodgers has become passive aggressive, Green Bay in turn has been stupid enough to push back.
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panamaniac
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:18 pm    Post subject:

True, there was some animosity prior to that. Like Rodgers feuding with Mike McCarthy, GB no catering to Rodgers etc.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:32 pm    Post subject:

Hindsight is 20/20 but Rams gave up a lot for Stafford when Rodgers is available now....
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:37 pm    Post subject:

This Rodgers stuff, spicy!

Looks like Denver and Las Vegas have a shot if he's dealt, as he wants to be on or near the West Coast and Green Bay would want to deal him out of conference completely. That could explain rebuffing SF's offers, even though they have the highest possible draft pick to offer at #3. Denver at #9 is higher than Vegas at #17, and although Derek Carr is much more to offer back than Drew Lock, the Packers would simply want to turn it over to Jordan Love, because, hey, they have to show that picking him last year wasn't for nothing, right? Denver, in particular, would become an immediate Super Bowl contender with Rodgers.

Want more spicy? Trey Lance is now the -165 betting favorite to go 3rd overall. Damn, I love the NFL this time of year!
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:03 pm    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
Hindsight is 20/20 but Rams gave up a lot for Stafford when Rodgers is available now....


I have no regrets over the trade. If you have to trade Rodgers, anywhere but SF or NO.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:31 pm    Post subject:

A lot of smoke connecting Rodgers to Denver now. National reporters denying it, but Mark Schlereth, who obviously has Denver connections, tweeted that he is hearing that it's close. Could this actually happen? Denver would become a top-5 Super Bowl favorite, if it does.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:35 pm    Post subject:

Jets failing again imho. Sam is going to be an excellent qb
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:47 pm    Post subject:

Lance at 3, yes! 3 for 3 so far. Had to switch it to Lance after seeing the major odds shift today.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:51 pm    Post subject:

This was my final mock, real quick, in order:

Lawrence
Wilson
Lance
Pitts
Chase
Waddle
Sewell
Fields
Horn
Surtain
Parsons
Smith
Slater
Vera-Tucker
Jones
Collins
Jenkins
Darrisaw
Owusu-Koramoah
E. Moore
Phillips
Newsome
Paye
Harris
Moehrig
J. Davis
Ojulari
Farley
Etienne
Samuel Jr.
Leatherwood
Barmore
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