2021 Lakers relevant Salary Cap Q&A
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vasashi17+
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:39 pm    Post subject:

AD is eligible to sign an extension next season that would kick in for the 2023/24 season...will he?

I don’t think so. Here’s why.

Quote:
League source: Should the NBA sign a new TV deal worth $75 billion, early projections indicate that a 2025 salary cap number of $171 million is possible, assuming no cap smoothing.

Should the NBPA instead agree to cap smoothing, it's likely the league will still see annual increases to the extent of $15 million, according to source.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mortenjensen/2021/09/19/with-new-tv-deal-looming-nba-teams-could-spend-big-on-extensions/


AD has a 43.2m early termination option for the 2024/25 season....meaning he’s an UFA for that potential 2025 FA class cap spike if he elects to bypass his ETO.

It’s also worth noting that the current CBA expires after the 2023/24 season where a decision in Dec 2022 could enable an early opt out of the current CBA after the 2022/23 season. Decisions on cap smoothing could play a part in negotiations as to whether the current CBA sticks or not.

As of right now, the rule is the salary cap has to increase yearly by at least 3%, but can go up by a max of 10%. It should be noted that due to the extenuating circumstances of COVID, the salary cap did not experience the normal minimum 3% annual increase from the 2019/20 season to the 2020/21 season...as a result of the financial struggles of a COVID environment and its impact on regular season sales, both seasons experienced an identically set salary cap of 109.1m. As a result, we can expect at least some form of cap correction moving forward.

Let’s assume cap smoothing is agreed upon in order to prevent another KD to 73-win dubs event from happening again. That would insinuate the annual salary cap would increase by the max 10% allowed up until the current CBA expires in ‘24 or when the new TV deal kicks in by ‘25 in an effort to smooth the cap over.

FYI: current projections have the salary cap/tax line for the 2022/23 season set to 119m/145m which would be about a 6% increase from this season. All projections below reflect a max 10% annual increase that the current CBA allots. Again this is an assumption made in an effort to cap smooth before the potential 2025 TV deal kicks in impacting the salary cap projections at that time.

2021/22
Salary cap: 112.4m
Tax line: 136.6m
35% max (10+ seasoned player/designated vet): 39.3m
30% max (7-9 seasoned player/designated rookie): 33.7m
25% max (0-6 seasoned player): 28.1m
non taxpayer MLE: 9.5m
taxpayer MLE: 5.9m
room MLE: 4.9m
Biannual exception: 3.7m
Veteran minimum exception: 1.7m cap hit /2.6m (for 10+ vet min, where 900k difference covered by league)

2022/23
Cap: 123.6m
Tax: 150.3m
35%: 43.3m
30%: 37.1m
25%: 30.9m
ntMLE: 10.5m
tMLE: 6.5m
rMLE: 5.4m
BAE: 4.1m
VM: 1.9m/2.9m

2023/24
Cap: 136m
Tax: 165.3m
35%: 47.6m
30%: 40.8m
25%: 34m
ntMLE: 11.6m
tMLE: 7.2m
rMLE: 5.9m
BAE: 4.5m
VM: 2.1m/3.2m

2024/25
Cap: 149.6m
Tax: 181.8m
35%: 52.4m
30%: 44.9m
25%: 37.4m
ntMLE: 12.8m
tMLE: 7.9m
rMLE: 6.5m
BAE: 5m
VM: 2.3m/3.5m

So by the time we get to the summer of 2025, when the new 75B TV deal kicks in, the 10% annual max escalators acting as baseline mechanics into cap smoothing before ‘25 hits, will still get you a projection of 164.6m, which is short of the early 171m projection. It’s possible at that time a spike still occurs but only of the 10-15% increase as opposed to the nearly 35% increase experienced in 2016.

Also notice that each year experiences nearly the 15m increase projected in the Forbes report. So at least you have a loose projection of how the money will break down from year to year.

Who knows, maybe AD does extend next year seeing how he did lock in a full 5yr deal based off his injury concerns. Still, coming into potential cap spike money in ‘25 as a 35% max eligible player at the young age of 32 might be too hard to pass up for him.
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vasashi17+
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 26, 2021 4:20 pm    Post subject:

See Dudz, we did go younger. So how far above the tax line does this Reaves kid leave us?

1. Russ 44.2m
2. Bron 41.2m
3. AD 35.4m
4. THT 9.5m
5. Nunn 5m
6. Melo 1.7m
7. Dwight 1.7m
8. Baze 1.7m
9. Ariza 1.7m
10. Monk 1.7m
11. Ellington 1.7m
12. Rondo 1.7m
13. DJ 1.7m
14. Reaves 925k (counts as 1.7m cap hit towards taxes)
Deng corpse 5m
= 154.8m in team salary
= 41.8m in taxes (ie 19m over tax line)
= 196.6m in combined team salary + associated luxury taxes
note: salary/taxes are all rounded up to the nearest tenth aka decimal point

Since Reaves is an undrafted rookie, he is eligible to sign a rookie minimum of 925k. This is the reason his minimum won’t count as a cap hit of 1.7m like all our other veteran minimum players did. However, he will count as a 1.7m cap hit towards luxury taxes. So counts as 925k towards trades and counts as 1.7m towards tax calculations.

It’s been reported that he signed a 2 year deal where his 2nd year is guaranteed via a team option. Had we saved at least 925k from our 5.89m mMLE instead of the the 890k we left unrealized after Nunn took 5m off of it, then we could gave given Reaves a deal that was longer than 2 years in length. A rookie minimum contract can only be topped off at 2 years in length, however the mMLE (or a portion of it) can be up to 3 years in length. As a result we will only have early bird rights to Reaves (assuming he sticks for his entire 2yr deal) as opposed to full bird rights we could have had at the end of a 3yr deal. So assuming we have no cap space in the summer of ‘23, the max we can offer him as an early bird RFA is 105% of the average NBA salary in the 2022/23 season (~12-15m; variance based on cap smoothing/favorable salary cap COVID corrective projections). This is exactly the situation that we experienced with THT this summer.

Since Reaves leaves his 2-way spot, we now have a roster of 14 guaranteed contracts + 1 2-way (Ayayi). This allows us to still add 2 more to the roster: 1 via a mid-season add (ie “rest-of-season” contract) & 1 via a now vacated 2-way slot.

And with this, I believe the roster is all but set till we hit that #BuyoutSZNPrimer. Till then, we soon should find out when the official trade deadline date will be set to and when we do I’ll try working on a TradeSZNPrimer update for this thread. Early forecast: we are lined up for minimal activity at the trade deadline...but it is a long season.
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vasashi17+
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 10, 2021 2:55 pm    Post subject:

With Ariza out for at least 8 weeks, THT battling a hand injury and Monk having to rehab his groin, which is an injury that typically lingers, what can we do to replace their production in the interim?

First thing is first, it depends on if ownership is open to paying an additional tax. They have shown to this point, not to be receptive in doing so.

Remember, even if they use our open 15th roster spot to sign a nonguaranteed vet min deal, the days that player provides us before he gets waived ahead of his guaranteed trigger date (Jan 10, 2022), will still yield a prorated tax hit where our current tax rate of 3.25 is applied to every dollar that comes from each day provided of service by a potential nonguaranteed player: 1/174 (ie 174 total regular season games between opening night on Oct 19, 2021 to end of regular season on April 10, 2022) of 2yr+ vet min deal @ 1.67m.

So for example, if we sign Ennis to the final 15th roster slot on a fully nonguaranteed deal and we keep him up until Jan 7th at which point we waive him (ie has to be waived and clear waivers before “cut-down” date of Jan 10th when all nonguaranteed deals go fully guaranteed), then his vet min salary of 1.67m will not be on our books, however he will have given us 80 days of service and that means he will account for 2.5m in taxes (ie a 3.25 tax rate applied towards a total of 768k for 80 days of service).

So let’s assume ownership goes this route and is willing to pay an additional 2.5m in taxes for a nonguaranteed player at the 15th roster spot. Which potential players currently on other teams rosters could we bring in to occupy that last roster spot, knowing that other teams will have to be waiving players to cut their rosters down to a mandated max of 15 before the regular season starts.

Here is a list of teams that have to make player cuts to non exhibit 9/10 (ie training camp/ G-league rights) players before Oct. 19:

-Toronto has to waive 2 players
Partially guaranteed players: Yuta Watanabe, Sam Dekker, Isaac Bonga, Freddie Gillespie

-San Antonio has to waive 2 players
Note: They do not have any non/partially-guaranteed deals on their roster so they would have to either waive minimum deals and eat the cost or trade those minimum deals into another team’s vet min exception to dodge the cost
Minimum contracts: Keita Bates-Diop, Jock Landale

-Golden State has to waive 1 player
Nonguaranteed players: Gary Payton II, Mychal Mulder
Partially guaranteed: Damion Lee
Note: Avery Bradley & Jordan Bell are on Exhibit 10 deals and are interesting names to keep an eye out for in case they get cut. Also the dubs just waived Langston Galloway who was also on a training camp invite deal

-Dallas has to waive 1 player
Exhibit 9 player that should make the roster: Frank Ntilikina
Partially guaranteed: Moses Brown

-New Orleans has to waive 1 player
Nonguaranteed player: Wenyen Gabriel

-OKC has to waive 1 player
Partially guaranteed: Kenrich Williams, Mamadi Diakite

-Memphis has to waive 1 player
Note: they do not have any non/partially-guaranteed deals so will either have to cut a low salary player and eat the cost or dump them via trade to another team

-Charlotte has to waive 1 player
Note: they do not have any non/partially-guaranteed deals so will either have to cut a low salary player and eat the cost or dump them via trade to another team

Finally we do also have an open 2-way slot where we can offer up to 462.5k to a young player that will not inflict a tax hit. Also if we are willing to take a tax hit on a younger development type player, we can wait till Oct 26th (ie 1 week into the regular season) to sign a rookie to a prorated minimum of 890k using the remainder of our mMLE. The advantage in doing so is that we could offer that player up to 3 years in length on a new deal (since vet/rookie min exception deals can only be up to 2 years in length, while mMLE exception deals can be up to 3 years in length).
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vasashi17+
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 16, 2021 10:36 am    Post subject:

With Ayayi waived from his 2-way spot, what are the rules pertaining to 2-way players that can potential fill that 2nd spot next to Sekou?

-Players are paid up to half the rookie minimum for that given season (= 462.5k)

-A 2-way player’s salary does not count towards a team’s salary and therefore is tax-exempt

-A 2-way contract can be up to 2yrs in length, making them restricted free agents when those particular deals are up

-Players are eligible to take a 2-way deal if they have 0-3yrs of NBA service

-Can play up to 3yrs total as a 2-way player for the same team

-Cannot be poached by another team with a standard NBA deal if already signed to another team’s 2-way deal

-Can be traded to another team (involving even another inbound 2-way player) but counts as $0 in salary aggregation (ie essentially trading for player’s rights)

-Due to the COVID pandemic, previous rules were lifted/relaxed:
No longer an in-season deadline to sign a 2-way player (used to be Jan 10)
No longer a limitation of games that have to be played per season (used to be 45 games)
No longer are ineligible to play in playoffs, if they are first converted to a standard NBA contract (ie “rest-of-season” deal) before the postseason starts
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vasashi17+
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:04 am    Post subject:

Final Roster? And how much is it going to cost us?

Sure looks like this is the final move just before the tip to the 2021/22 season. But due to the partial/non guaranteed structure of Reaves/Bradley respectively, we could potentially have 2 roster spots still available by buyoutSZN.

1. Russ 44.2m
2. Bron 41.2m
3. AD 35.4m
4. THT 9.5m
5. Nunn 5m
6. Melo 1.7m
7. Dwight 1.7m
8. Baze 1.7m
9. Ariza 1.7m
10. Monk 1.7m
11. Ellington 1.7m
12. Rondo 1.7m
13. DJ 1.7m
14. Bradley 1.7m (nonguaranteed deal signed w/GS & acquired off waivers)
15. Reaves 925k (partially guaranteed & counts as 1.7m cap hit towards taxes)
Deng corpse 5m
= 156.5m in team salary
= 47.6m in taxes (ie 20.7m over tax line)
= 204.1m in combined team salary + associated luxury taxes
note: salary/taxes are all rounded up to the nearest tenth aka decimal point

This projection is calculated under the assumption that both Reaves (only 100k guaranteed) and Av (nonguaranteed) remain on the roster and are not waived. In both cases, if they were to be waived at any point during the season up until the cut-down date (Jan 10, when all non/partial guaranteed deals convert to fully guaranteed), then there will be a tax hit of:
3.25 * (1.7m * (days of service till waived)/174 total days of service during regular season

Day to day pay for Av: 9.6k
Tax hit per day: 31k
Total salary/tax if Av gets waived just before cut-down date: 768k/2.5m
(note:that 768k will not show up on our final cap sheet for the year due to the nonguaranteed structure of his contract…in addition the league also offers a prorated amount of 900k for the days Av remains on a NBA roster as a vet min player)

There are 80 days of potential service a non/partial guaranteed deal can accumulate before the cut-down date (ie hits waivers on Jan 7, to clear the wire after 48hr claim window by Jan 10). In the case of Reaves’ partially guaranteed deal, if he gets waived before the cut-down date, there will be a similar day to day tax hit as Av, with an additional 100k paid to him & that amount appearing as a dead cap hit on our cap sheet this year.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2021 12:15 pm    Post subject:

Okay I’ve seen enough and I’m itching to get twitchy with my trigger finger…when is the earliest we can pull on shooting our shot at a trade?

First things first, we haven’t even seen how our entire roster looks healthy yet. But discussion to get better never rests so let’s crank up those trade machines.

Based on when the deadline fell pre-COVID (ie 10 days before All-star, which falls on Feb. 20), it safe to assume February 10, 2022 will be this season’s trade deadline.

Seeing how we have a roster where 3 players are nearly untouchable & 10 other players are minimum contracts (ranging @ 925k - 2.64m) that could be taken in by another team’s veteran minimum exception without the need to send outgoing salary back to LA, that only leaves 2 contracts worth considering towards making a potential midseason trade: THT @ 9.5m & Nunn @ 5m.

Due to the base year compensation (BYC) status of THT towards his new deal, dude cannot be aggregated with or sent out alone in any trade till January 15, 2022 at the earliest. Nunn, like all our other minimum contracts (counting as only 1.67m in aggregation towards a trade) except for Reaves (counting as 925k in aggregation) can be traded on December 15t, 2021 at the earliest. So we will have a period of time to really observe if those dudes fit within our title aspirations this season.

The following list of players are potential targets that would be considered legal based on the aggregated 14.5m salaries of THT/Nunn (ie 2for1 trade):

Quote:
Eric Gordon
Eric Bledsoe
Myles Turner
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Terry Rozier
Ricky Rubio
Caris LeVert
Jonathan Isaac
Joe Harris
Spencer Dinwiddie
Evan Fournier
Steven Adams
Markelle Fultz
Aaron Gordon
OG Anunoby
Gary Trent Jr.
Davis Bertans
Lauri Markkanen
Marcus Morris Sr.
Will Barton
Duncan Robinson
Norman Powell
Dejounte Murray
Derrick White
Malik Beasley
Marcus Smart
Patrick Beverley
Thaddeus Young
Jonas Valanciunas
Doug McDermott
Christian Wood
Derrick Rose
Luke Kennard
Brook Lopez
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Joe Ingles
Kyle Kuzma
Taurean Prince
Robert Covington
T.J. Warren
Deandre Ayton
Terrence Ross
Jordan Clarkson
Dillon Brooks
Kelly Olynyk
Jusuf Nurkic
Kelly Oubre Jr.
Josh Hart


The following list of players are potential targets that would be considered legal based on the 9.5m salary of THT alone (ie 1for1 trade):

Quote:
Josh Richardson
Marvin Bagley III
Dwight Powell
Devonte' Graham
Zion Williamson
Larry Nance Jr.
Jeremy Lamb
Reggie Jackson
Richaun Holmes
Anthony Edwards
Luka Doncic
Cade Cunningham
Danny Green
Tomas Satoransky
Kyle Anderson
Derrick Favors
Jae Crowder
Serge Ibaka
Tristan Thompson
Derrick Jones Jr.
Montrezl Harrell
Ja Morant
Alec Burks
Reggie Bullock
Mason Plumlee
Jaren Jackson Jr.
James Wiseman
Jalen Green
Maxi Kleber
Monte Morris
De'Anthony Melton
Nerlens Noel
Royce O'Neale
Jakob Poeltl
Kemba Walker
Thomas Bryant
R.J. Barrett
Alex Caruso
Delon Wright
Dario Saric
Tyus Jones
Trae Young
Daniel Theis
LaMelo Ball
Seth Curry
JaMychal Green
Cedi Osman
Evan Mobley
De'Andre Hunter
Mohamed Bamba
Ivica Zubac
T.J. McConnell


Note: the names presented above are solely salary reliant and do not consider the other elements that are necessary in making a legal trade (ie potential All-NBA namer, base salary that does not reflect incentives, roster spots and/or exceptions necessary to facilitate a potential 2 for 1 trade involving the aggregation of THT/Nunn, etc).

Potential unprotected/nonconditional draft assets that are allowed to be involved in a potential trade proposal this season…

- 1st rounders: 2027, 2028, 2029; 2026 (only on the condition that if our 2024 1st does convey to the Pels and they choose not to defer it to a 2025 pick).
Note: if we get involved in a trade with the Pels, it’s possible we can rearrange/amend some of the previous conditions that have been placed on the picks/swaps we involved in the AD trade

-2nd rounders: 2 in 2023 (our own & Bulls), 2024 (lowest among Wiz & Griz), 2025 (our own), 2027 (our own), 2 in 2028 (our own & Wiz), 2029 (our own)
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vasashi17+
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2021 12:19 pm    Post subject:

Screw asset management, I want Russ under another team’s management and would rather have the cap space he & his deal leave behind. How much cap space would we have?


The salary cap next year is cut projected to be 119m and still has the potential to go up (via COVID correction / cap smoothing via a projected 75B TV deal). So a lot could change from now till next summer, but on a 119m salary cap, our cap sheet looks like this:

Bron 44.5m
AD 38m
THT 10.3m
Nunn 5.3 (player option)
Reaves 1.6m (team option)
No Deng cap hit (yay!)

Assuming Nunn opts out looking to add to his bag and pairing that with a Russ opt out gives a team salary of 94.4m with 4 players on the roster. Incomplete roster charges are projected to be 953k per so at 8, we are looking at about a 7.6m cap hit taking team salary to 102m. So with a salary cap of 119m, we would have roughly 17m in cap space and in addition we would also have a projected 5.2m as the room exception since we would be considered a cap having team. You can offer up to 2yrs with 5% annual escalators towards one free agent or split between two, using the room exception. So total potential cap space would be roughly 22m.

What if he opts into his 47.1m player option, then what could our options be?

Stretch waiving him would give us no benefit in potential cap space and would only benefit ownership in minimizing a luxury tax hit on a projected 145m tax line. Plus, after finally removing Deng’s dead money off our sheet, why would we add another cap corpse with Russ’s stretched deal.

As for trading him, his deal could bring back as much as 59m in salary (ie any of the max players along with an additional 15m-20m salaried player). Basically any team that is looking for a massive salary dump.

Also extension options (and in that same vein, S&t options) were described in the last post of page 2 of this thread. Please refer to those details there thx.

What if we try to get ahead of this and just trade him this season…when can we trade him and what kind of package could we potentially bring back?


All-star is February 20, 2022 and traditionally (ie precovid climate) the trade deadline is 10 days before that weekend’s events so February 10th is the latest we can trade Russ to swap out personnel fir a better fitting playoff roster.

We can trade Russ right now if we wanted to. His salary can be aggregated to other players/contracts as of late Sept, but Nunn and all the minimum guys can’t be aggregated with Russ till Dec 15th. THT can’t be involved in any trade till January 15th (due to BYC).

So Russ sent out in a deal by himself can bring in as little as 35.3m in salary or as much as 55.4m in salary. Below are players that fall within that salaried window this year on a 1for1 scenario:

Quote:

Stephen Curry
John Wall
James Harden
Kevin Durant
Damian Lillard
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Paul George
Kawhi Leonard
Klay Thompson
Jimmy Butler
Tobias Harris
Khris Middleton
Rudy Gobert
Kyrie Irving
Bradley Beal (via activated 15% trade kicker only)
Ben Simmons (via activated 15% trade kicker only)


(Note: names provided above are based on legal trades using those particular salaried deals and are not based on practicality…obviously haha…also FYI a 1for1 deal of Russ for Ben or Beal for example is not a legal trade w/o their trade kicker triggered; Philly/Washington would have to add more outbound salary otherwise for a legal trade)
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