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Mike@LG
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:48 pm    Post subject:

44TheLogo wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
jaden springer doesn't even look like an NBA prospect to me.

and sorry no matter how much chris duarte's tape looks solid, he's 24. that (bleep) is absolutely disqualifying. if you're an nba prospect at 24 playing against college kids you should be completely and utterly destroying them.


his shooting percentages reflect destruction do they not? 71/52/40 rim/mid/3


it's not enough for the age gap. duarte should be comped to a player like cameron johnson, RIGHT NOW. do you see duarte playing crunch time in the NBA finals today?


I don't see any rookie doing that. Even Cam is a 2-year pro.


yeah, that's my point. he's 24, he should be a 2 year pro rather than playing against kids.

and butler > bouknight


Yeah we're agreed about the age thing.

Duarte and Murphy II are just late bloomers really.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:20 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
jaden springer doesn't even look like an NBA prospect to me.

and sorry no matter how much chris duarte's tape looks solid, he's 24. that (bleep) is absolutely disqualifying. if you're an nba prospect at 24 playing against college kids you should be completely and utterly destroying them.


his shooting percentages reflect destruction do they not? 71/52/40 rim/mid/3


it's not enough for the age gap. duarte should be comped to a player like cameron johnson, RIGHT NOW. do you see duarte playing crunch time in the NBA finals today?


I don't see any rookie doing that. Even Cam is a 2-year pro.


yeah, that's my point. he's 24, he should be a 2 year pro rather than playing against kids.

and butler > bouknight


Yeah we're agreed about the age thing.

Duarte and Murphy II are just late bloomers really.


I wouldn’t draft a guy 24 years old, ever. Just ridiculous. Murphy iii is 3 years younger. I wouldn’t put him in the same category of late bloomer as Duarte lol
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 4:37 pm    Post subject:

44TheLogo wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
jaden springer doesn't even look like an NBA prospect to me.

and sorry no matter how much chris duarte's tape looks solid, he's 24. that (bleep) is absolutely disqualifying. if you're an nba prospect at 24 playing against college kids you should be completely and utterly destroying them.


his shooting percentages reflect destruction do they not? 71/52/40 rim/mid/3


it's not enough for the age gap. duarte should be comped to a player like cameron johnson, RIGHT NOW. do you see duarte playing crunch time in the NBA finals today?


I don't see any rookie doing that. Even Cam is a 2-year pro.


yeah, that's my point. he's 24, he should be a 2 year pro rather than playing against kids.

and butler > bouknight


Yeah we're agreed about the age thing.

Duarte and Murphy II are just late bloomers really.


I wouldn’t draft a guy 24 years old, ever. Just ridiculous. Murphy iii is 3 years younger. I wouldn’t put him in the same category of late bloomer as Duarte lol


I would think normal teams probably start away from Duarte due to age.
Lakers are different due to LeBrons age and urgency to win next year. That's why I would draft Duarte if available??
Murphy and Springer.....probably go Murphy due to the same thing but as far as long term, Springer is the guy, just not for us
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 4:45 pm    Post subject:

lakerfanaticPT wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
jaden springer doesn't even look like an NBA prospect to me.

and sorry no matter how much chris duarte's tape looks solid, he's 24. that (bleep) is absolutely disqualifying. if you're an nba prospect at 24 playing against college kids you should be completely and utterly destroying them.


his shooting percentages reflect destruction do they not? 71/52/40 rim/mid/3


it's not enough for the age gap. duarte should be comped to a player like cameron johnson, RIGHT NOW. do you see duarte playing crunch time in the NBA finals today?


I don't see any rookie doing that. Even Cam is a 2-year pro.


yeah, that's my point. he's 24, he should be a 2 year pro rather than playing against kids.

and butler > bouknight


Yeah we're agreed about the age thing.

Duarte and Murphy II are just late bloomers really.


I wouldn’t draft a guy 24 years old, ever. Just ridiculous. Murphy iii is 3 years younger. I wouldn’t put him in the same category of late bloomer as Duarte lol


I would think normal teams probably start away from Duarte due to age.
Lakers are different due to LeBrons age and urgency to win next year. That's why I would draft Duarte if available??
Murphy and Springer.....probably go Murphy due to the same thing but as far as long term, Springer is the guy, just not for us

Duarte is getting interest, so I kinda doubt that. He's current positioning already takes his age into consideration and if he was younger he would be a lot higher up obviously. Age hurts him, but teams are obviously interested.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:02 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
I would think normal teams probably start away from Duarte due to age.


Some more popular mocks have him mid 1st because of the idea that you're getting a rotation wing for an lower MLE contract.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:03 pm    Post subject:

44TheLogo wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
jaden springer doesn't even look like an NBA prospect to me.

and sorry no matter how much chris duarte's tape looks solid, he's 24. that (bleep) is absolutely disqualifying. if you're an nba prospect at 24 playing against college kids you should be completely and utterly destroying them.


his shooting percentages reflect destruction do they not? 71/52/40 rim/mid/3


it's not enough for the age gap. duarte should be comped to a player like cameron johnson, RIGHT NOW. do you see duarte playing crunch time in the NBA finals today?


I don't see any rookie doing that. Even Cam is a 2-year pro.


yeah, that's my point. he's 24, he should be a 2 year pro rather than playing against kids.

and butler > bouknight


Yeah we're agreed about the age thing.

Duarte and Murphy II are just late bloomers really.


I wouldn’t draft a guy 24 years old, ever. Just ridiculous. Murphy iii is 3 years younger. I wouldn’t put him in the same category of late bloomer as Duarte lol


And yet, Murphy isn't a physical player on either end of the floor, and that puts him farther behind on the development curve.

In the end, it's 2 JuCo kids doing skill refinement (Duarte) or late growth spurts (Murphy). Either way, late bloomers.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:24 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Mark10 45 wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Mark10 45 wrote:
All I know for me is most years I'd look at a couple 10min highlight vids of a player and that'd be it.. maybe a couple more clips and a DX vid. haha

This year I've seen more of the players. Zion's year I watched a good amount of the prospects too

excuses


Jared Butler or James Bouknight?


I've bought a bit into Bouknight having nice upside so I'll go with him.

If I could trust Butler to be a PG/consistent lead-guard.. then it'd be close for me. I think part of Butler's upside for me is improving his pace in the halfcourt - it'd make him better in the P&R game, even passing, drawing drawing more of the D's attention to kick. And it'd maintain his great finishing, which I have some doubts about it translating to above average, and that's because he drives in at slow mph. great touch though in the lane.
Butler's safer, although I don't think Bouknight is particularly unsafe.

btw, look at this
my first thought was "wow Mitchell looks like a blur.." then I saw Sims stay with him and look like he was in turbo himself, wow..connecting that slide to the on-time leap


The difference in ball handling and PnR reps is night and day compared to Bouknight, that's why I asked.

Butler is so your type of player, but you're still choosing Bouknight.

I also don't know what you mean about improving pace. Already saw tons of him playing intermediate speeds in PnR.


I personally mean high pace when I say pace.. players who can play with energy to the point they're a beat ahead of the defender..
Playing at changing speeds is the popular term today, but playing with tempo, ahead of the defense, dictating. this is what I prefer. Butler plays at the intermediate like the whole time... I think he plays too measured/slow.


this is ahead of the defense, every move is a beat ahead of the defense, boom, boom, boom.


on-beat is creating an advantage and then keeping it, dictating
creating space and keeping it

this is even a beat ahead of the defense - Paul knows he has to be ahead of Kemba's lost-ness. and he is . he's ahead of that

I see a lot of Butler P&Rs like this
he's not a beat ahead of his defender, his defender is literally relaxing and not reacting

here is a weaknesses facet in a scouting vid ; on how he plays too slow heading to the rim..and that starts from playing with no energy/pace in starting his attacks out at the 3pt line, from screens or 1v1

I don't see Butler playing with pace in the P&R, turning the tempo up to create an advantage, and then keeping the space.. I don't see this playing with the defender in the P&R, he often slows down too much and lets the defender recover

know you know this stuff, but I just had to show the higher tempo plays to highlight that Butler plays too measured. he moves to me like he's had an ACL injury before and he's trying to play measured. his legs never really extend wide from his body on crossovers, he plays compact in his frame. and also at measured tempo.


Last edited by Mark10 45 on Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:53 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:49 pm    Post subject:

this is what I like to see from Butler, he's quick away from his man, and then the move at the bigman is on-beat,high tempo to get there and boom another move

he's a 'make it look easy' guy

idk if he'll be able to just stroll around at low pace in the league and make plays/shake guys.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 2:40 am    Post subject:

Mcbride
toys with this pressure defender - creates space on the BTB, relieves the pressure. but the impressive part - the amount he shakes him on the in&out leading to him hunting a spot in the midrange, for a pretty open look. that's what we see from Booker and cp3. the contest is a beat late or more.
great shot creation play. In your article you highlighted some plays where he creates space just by putting on the breaks... When I look at this play, putting on the breaks, then a shifty move and hunting a spot... that's another level/layer on top of just breaks. and I like it and think it's completely in his bag

He has the skill to see a path to him becoming Jrue Holiday ish on offense. and of course really great on defense too, less physical than Jrue but still all Defensive team potential

Heard your podcast Mike. You're really great on the mic. you're not a mumble rapper like a lot of draft twitter and myself lol. And you express your points very well and interestingly.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:34 am    Post subject:

also was looking at Mcbride's body because how small his arms are in this pic/tweet of the Lakers workout shocked me. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6h_kO1VoAAJLJd?format=jpg&name=medium
and he's still a good weight 195lbs with the small arms, which also surprised me because he used to be a football guy.
https://ogden_images.s3.amazonaws.com/www.theintelligencer.net/images/2021/02/13005910/WVU-2-333x500.jpg
so I think he's still got a lot of muscle/weight he can put on his upper body.

https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/thedaonline.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/7/60/7600e3c2-5f87-11eb-ac3d-47aa1c13bff4/600f8e3117f6a.image.jpg?resize=1200%2C990

compare his arms to Tre Mann

https://a.espncdn.com/media/motion/2021/0311/dm_210311_SEC_NCB_Interview_Tre_Mann_postgame_210311/dm_210311_SEC_NCB_Interview_Tre_Mann_postgame_210311.jpg

Lonzo with the Lakers after a couple years of NBA training

https://images.daznservices.com/di/library/omnisport/b1/3/lonzo-ball-01182019-usnews-getty-ftr_1tbfl19jw6i8h1f821jny9dwhb.jpg?t=1686327800&quality=100

Mcbride still has a baby face even, so i think his body will mature and he could end up a thick/strong guard
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:55 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Mark10 45 wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Mark10 45 wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Mark10 45 wrote:
All I know for me is most years I'd look at a couple 10min highlight vids of a player and that'd be it.. maybe a couple more clips and a DX vid. haha

This year I've seen more of the players. Zion's year I watched a good amount of the prospects too

excuses


Jared Butler or James Bouknight?


I've bought a bit into Bouknight having nice upside so I'll go with him.

If I could trust Butler to be a PG/consistent lead-guard.. then it'd be close for me. I think part of Butler's upside for me is improving his pace in the halfcourt - it'd make him better in the P&R game, even passing, drawing drawing more of the D's attention to kick. And it'd maintain his great finishing, which I have some doubts about it translating to above average, and that's because he drives in at slow mph. great touch though in the lane.
Butler's safer, although I don't think Bouknight is particularly unsafe.

btw, look at this
my first thought was "wow Mitchell looks like a blur.." then I saw Sims stay with him and look like he was in turbo himself, wow..connecting that slide to the on-time leap


The difference in ball handling and PnR reps is night and day compared to Bouknight, that's why I asked.


ah, yea..
I'd be curious to see Butler's P&R synergy stats. I have to watch more, I've seen the nice passes but I've also seen so much hesitance, indecision, bad passes..


The link is in my signature. That'll also link to an article from the Stepien that'll give you the synergy numbers you're looking for.


thanks. so he's 53%tile as a P&R ballhandler.. my guess would have been around that. there are some ball handling flubs, bad passes, and pace issues that lead to it. 21% turnover tendency in the P&R, that's really high

the "defense commits" play stat....
I can believe it - it says he's top tier as a P&R passer when the defense commits - sure.. my issue with him is before that,getting the defense to commit, with pace, manipulation, and handle.
he's got a great handle in some respects, and you could say overall - I haven't watched enough to pinpoint a specific issue with his handle - but I have seen handle miscues , quite a few, and I think they happen a decent amount in the P&R.

He's got a great handle, yet his isolation success rate is 44th%tile, with low turnover tendency

So I like the handle but I think there are clear reasons why it doesn't bear more fruit.. He's really compact; and playing at a measured pace combined with a low release-don't make shot creation windows seem so open, for him to take the shot, or the shot not to be too contested
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:28 am    Post subject:

I just asked a dude for some Synergy info, and this is where I don't understand the posts.

Bouknight is a 42% PnR ball handler. 25.7%TO rate.

I think Butler shows a ton more pace, less manipulation, more outright evading defenders, with a more advanced handle.

Bouknight otoh is projected as a lower USG, 3rd scoring type option, but what's his worst offensive attribute? Spot up. 14%-tile.

20%TO rate out of PnR is average.

Bottom line, if Butler is projected to be a 3rd option at best, somewhat similar to Bouknight, then what is Bouknight's path here when 3rd option guys, don't get the USG rates, get a ton more catch and shoot situations, and he's a statistically worse PnR playtype?

Bouknight's Isolation success, USG rate, and poor spot up read to me like a great shot creating 6th man. That's also why I'm not as high on him, outside of what the tape shows.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:13 am    Post subject:

yea I buy Bouknight's jumper. So I think his *upside* is a Clarkson who's also really good with off-ball movement.. a valuable 3rd scorer who's more versatile than Clarkson. I buy him turning into a catch-shoot shooter, even with movement. but I understand not buying that.
a bit better defender than Clarkson... he had back to back 10 rebound games, which I value from the guard position after watching these Finals.
3rd option is fine , he could get as many shots up as Jrue Holiday did these Finals.. the Bucks needed that aggression from him -- just like I think the Lakers could use a tad less aggressive 3rd scorer, because 1-2 punches are so predictable and if there isn't another highly aggressive creator, offenses lack juice, especially in the playoffs. every top team is kinda yearning for a 3rd scorer who could be a real threat - Bucks, Clippers, Lakers.. and the playoffs are heavily 1v1 or at least go get a bucket centric. So I have no qualms with his playstyle

As a guy who's going to run an offense(or that would significantly aid his value) Butler's synergy numbers don't do much for me, not even next to Bouknight's numbers..
Butler does have a better handle... but with that handle, why is the 1v1 efficiency so mediocre?
I'd like to see him improve his pace in the P&R and downhill, and that may be improvable , so..

I'm not too much liking his value off-ball in the playoffs; he's 6'3 with no wingspan, if there's a PG playing with him, I don't want Butler guarding SGs(with his reach he's got average PG length). while I'd be fine with Bouknight being in that crunchtime lineup next to a PG, defending SGs.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:28 am    Post subject:

Appreciate the compliment earlier btw.

I'm not concerned about Butler's wingspan, considering how good he actually is at not only contesting perimeter jumpshots on closeouts and 1v1, but also, some actual willingness to protect the rim. Imagine, a 6'4" wingspan but has a 1.3% block rate.

Small guards, and I also include Bouknight here, like I would Clarkson, in my mind, are always net negative on defense and you're lucky if they're even neutral. The ways to neutrality are the steal rate, block rate, and the willingness to actually play physical. I think both guys are 1 position defenders anyway.

Just, it's especially clear to me, especially when Butler has that much refinement and craft in terms of shooting, shooting gravity, and ball handling, that it should be a ton easier to refine those TO percentages, adjust easier to being a 3rd guy, and especially increasing that 1v1 efficiency, especially when he was the secondary guy, not the primary that Davion was.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:56 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Appreciate the compliment earlier btw.

I'm not concerned about Butler's wingspan, considering how good he actually is at not only contesting perimeter jumpshots on closeouts and 1v1, but also, some actual willingness to protect the rim. Imagine, a 6'4" wingspan but has a 1.3% block rate.

Small guards, and I also include Bouknight here, like I would Clarkson, in my mind, are always net negative on defense and you're lucky if they're even neutral. The ways to neutrality are the steal rate, block rate, and the willingness to actually play physical. I think both guys are 1 position defenders anyway.

Just, it's especially clear to me, especially when Butler has that much refinement and craft in terms of shooting, shooting gravity, and ball handling, that it should be a ton easier to refine those TO percentages, adjust easier to being a 3rd guy, and especially increasing that 1v1 efficiency, especially when he was the secondary guy, not the primary that Davion was.


you should do more pods ; it was really good.

yea watching more and more I'm starting to see more of the warts. I'm still going to buy the potential for upside.. something about him and what he shows, I think he has an improvable game. I think his specific ball handling warts are improvable.
I originally had Butler and Bouknight a spot or two away from eachother - but I just bought into Bouk's potential and still see Butler as a 7th man who won't get crunchtime minutes next to the starting PG. Also, I don't have anyone to put above Bouknight! at least in my mind. lol. that mid lotto range ain't pretty. It really is just about weighing the red flags... or which warts you think are the most improvable for different players....
Like, Barnes in the halfcourt is too big of a flaw.. coupled with a really iffy shooting projection. Moody is safe and I could give him the nod over Bouknight eventually. I'm just looking for a more upsidey guy and I've tagged Bouknight as him in that bunch.

Bouknight
Barnes
Moody
Cooper
Jalen
Giddey

like...... eh.....
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:58 am    Post subject:

I thought the knee collapse and loose handle was enough to drop Bouknight to late 1st or later on my list.

He's just the most vertical athlete on your list.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:09 am    Post subject:

yea he has knee instability - but at the same time he has flashes of great "tip over"as PDWeb said.
like, sometimes his tip-over or shin angle you could say, reminds me of Iverson.
look how low he is to the floor...
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:23 am    Post subject:

Mark10 45 wrote:
yea he has knee instability - but at the same time he has flashes of great "tip over"as PDWeb said.
like, sometimes his tip-over or shin angle you could say, reminds me of Iverson.
look how low he is to the floor...


Imagine, getting that low, with knee instability. I think it compounds the issue.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 1:17 pm    Post subject:

Believe Butler will fall to the very end of the 1st or into the 2nd due to his heart condition.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:00 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Believe Butler will fall to the very end of the 1st or into the 2nd due to his heart condition.


He got cleared by the NBA days ago, but yeah, it's up to the NBA teams to take the risk ultimately.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:34 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
I thought the knee collapse and loose handle was enough to drop Bouknight to late 1st or later on my list.

He's just the most vertical athlete on your list.


Where can I find you on pod??
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:51 pm    Post subject:

JJin77 wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
I thought the knee collapse and loose handle was enough to drop Bouknight to late 1st or later on my list.

He's just the most vertical athlete on your list.


Where can I find you on pod??


https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/premium-hoops/id1487497433?i=1000529491230
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:20 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Believe Butler will fall to the very end of the 1st or into the 2nd due to his heart condition.


He got cleared by the NBA days ago, but yeah, it's up to the NBA teams to take the risk ultimately.


Saw he was cleared and if he wasn't by this time I believe he would end up undrafted.

It would not surprise me if a number of teams already have him as undraftable.

Unfortunate circumstances for him.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:45 pm    Post subject:

Falling in love with Jared Butler.

Easily top 15 prospect.

Look at how sexy he is:

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 11:33 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Falling in love with Jared Butler.

Easily top 15 prospect.

Look at how sexy he is:


Mcbride better. better PG skills, which can also just function as modern PG scoring agressiveness. way longer. defends more than 1 position, especially as he gains upper body strength (see pics above)
I'd say a better ball handler while orchestrating an offense.. even in the scoring PG role. Butler has better 1v1 moves. But functionally sometimes his handle becomes only average when he has to orchestrate. part of a "handle" while orchestrating is escape dribbles, and keeping the dribble alive, comfortability creating in ISO situations with the floor spread. Butler isn't great at this PG stuff. (yes I know the Butler handle highlight reel is awesome, and he has some awesome handles)

I don't really love Butler getting a screen at 30ft and having to be aggressive downhill. And that's a typical PG play. Mcbride is good at that. Butler likes screens that are secondary P&R guy screens, right at the 3pt line.. like a wing player..and he doesn't have to keep his dribble alive too long after and re-set the offense and make a play

On another note.. if the Lakers prefer Duarte, like I do, why do you think they do?


Last edited by Mark10 45 on Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:29 am; edited 2 times in total
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