Dennis_D Blog: The meaning of 3-0 vs 0-3

 
This forum is locked: you cannot post, reply to, or edit topics.    LakersGround.net Forum Index -> Topic HOF This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies.
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Dennis_D
LG Contributor
LG Contributor


Joined: 12 Apr 2001
Posts: 2017
Location: North Dallas

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:48 pm    Post subject: Dennis_D Blog: The meaning of 3-0 vs 0-3

link

It's a small post, so I will re-post it here in full:
Quote:
The Lakers are 3-0 and the Spurs are 0-3. Does that indicate anything? Can you make any predictions based upon that?

If we look at the results of teams that started the season 3-0 since the league went to 29 teams in the 95-96 season (excluding the strike shortened '98-'99 season), 57 teams have started the season 3-0. Those teams on average won 48.2 games and 40 of the 57 teams had winning records (70%). The best record of a 3-0 team is 72 wins by the '95-'96 Bulls. The worst record is 20 wins by the '97-'98 Mavericks. The middle 50% won 40-57 games.

During the same timespan, 53 teams started the season 0-3. Those teams on average won 32.5 games and 15 of the 53 teams had winning records (28%). The best record of an 0-3 team is 67 wins by the '06-'07 Mavericks. The worst record is 11 wins by the '97-'98 Nuggets. The middle 50% won 23-42 games.

Looking at the average and the range for the middle 50%, the difference between a 3-0 and an 0-3 start is expected to be 16 games in the final standings.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Legacy
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 7054
Location: So. Californ-I-A

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:56 pm    Post subject:

All about matchups, ref calls, injuries and HCA. That's why some bad teams go 3-0 to start the season.

We happen to be a good team that is currently healthy. Refs will have to put some extra sauce in their bad officiating to bring us down. Hopefully too much, to where they don't even try. They wouldn't want to be exposed.

That being said, the Spurs will get healthy and be right back where they always are. Competing for a title.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Klone_dd
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 11 Mar 2002
Posts: 7330

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:09 pm    Post subject:

Last year a WC team had to win 50 games just to get in as #8 seed. If SA wins 42, they will be on the outside looking in.

Timmy and Mr. Longoria are playing well, but the rest of the team is old and untalented. Manu may not be back before the end of 2008. Even then, from 4th player down, their squad is really lacking.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Dennis_D
LG Contributor
LG Contributor


Joined: 12 Apr 2001
Posts: 2017
Location: North Dallas

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:17 pm    Post subject:

Klone_dd wrote:
Last year a WC team had to win 50 games just to get in as #8 seed. If SA wins 42, they will be on the outside looking in.

Timmy and Mr. Longoria are playing well, but the rest of the team is old and untalented. Manu may not be back before the end of 2008. Even then, from 4th player down, their squad is really lacking.

Of the 53 teams that started 0-3, 3 won 47 games, 1 won 48 games, 1 won 49 games, 1 won 50 games and 1 won 67 games. Based on that and how many games it took last year to get the #8 seed, the Spurs are looking like major long shots to make the playoffs this season.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
JerryMagicKobe
Moderator
Moderator


Joined: 28 Jul 2005
Posts: 15100

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 5:12 pm    Post subject:

Hard to win with Finley (is he 40 yet?), Bonner and Bowen as you key reserves...

Oh wait. They are starters. Manu to the rescue may be too little too late. Maybe Timmy will go down with some life threatening tendonitis and they will play the season for ping pong balls.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Dennis_D
LG Contributor
LG Contributor


Joined: 12 Apr 2001
Posts: 2017
Location: North Dallas

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 5:53 pm    Post subject:

Thinking more on this, winning your first 3 games in the WC doesn't tell you too much. 4 WC teams and the odds are one of them won't have a winning record when the season ends. The Lakers have to win a lot more games before anyone should get excited about their start. OTOH, losing your first 3 games in the WC tells you that your playoff hopes are already on life support.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
City_Dawg
Retired Number
Retired Number


Joined: 14 Jul 2006
Posts: 46878
Location: Coming soon and striking at your borders.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 7:27 pm    Post subject:

Dennis_D wrote:
Thinking more on this, winning your first 3 games in the WC doesn't tell you too much. 4 WC teams and the odds are one of them won't have a winning record when the season ends. The Lakers have to win a lot more games before anyone should get excited about their start. OTOH, losing your first 3 games in the WC tells you that your playoff hopes are already on life support.


For me, i go by three dates to judge how a team is progressing..

1. Christmas
2. All-Star break
3. The final week of the season.

I think that gives teams ample time to figure what the (bleep) they're gonna be and just go through the usual up and downs of the season.

Three games doesn't really say much about any team, things happen during this long grind.
_________________
*sighs*

!...
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Display posts from previous:   
This forum is locked: you cannot post, reply to, or edit topics.    LakersGround.net Forum Index -> Topic HOF All times are GMT - 8 Hours
Page 1 of 1
Jump to:  

 
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum






Graphics by uberzev
© 1995-2018 LakersGround.net. All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy. Terms of Use.
LakersGround is an unofficial news source serving the fan community since 1995.
We are in no way associated with the Los Angeles Lakers or the National Basketball Association.


Powered by phpBB