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Steve007
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 Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 9:55 am Post subject: |
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| 1995Lakers wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Would we use Snell like Tampa Bay does? They were so reluctant to let him face a batting order a 3rd time through. |
I don't think we would have as quick of a hook, I'll tell you that. I don't even think that Roberts, as weird as some of his decisions have been, would have dared take out an ace pitcher when he's at 73 pitches.
I'm sure we would be careful with him in the regular season. We rarely let Buehler throw over 100 pitches, for example, especially in the regular season. But I don't think we would see him as a 5-inning pitcher, like how we used to use Wood or even guys like May this year.
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It’s interesting because we’re both analytically driven teams.
Tampa Bay’s analytics tells them that the best way to win with Snell is to not let him face the lineup a 3rd time. They did that all year and it got them to the WS.
Our analytics would tell us something different?
It’s interesting cuz we’d be looking at the same numbers. |
Well good analytics should take into account when a guy is absolutely dealing vs looking at a guy's entire season. Then to replace him with Anderson whose regular season numbers contrasted greatly from performances recently? Give me the analytics of a guy is absolutely lights out going through the order 3rd time through vs putting in a good reliever who has been getting smacked repeatedly in recent times. |
I’m okay with not letting Snell face the order for a 3rd time, as long as an exception can be made for situations when he looks so dominant that you have to leave him in.
How has Snell done when he has thrown between 70-80 pitches? Did Tampa have those numbers? How does he perform against hitters that are 0-2 against him? Or better yet, 0-2 against him when he has thrown fewer than 80 pitches? Or when hitters are 0-2 against him with 2 k’s? Surely our team would look at several numbers, and not just one overrated stat. |
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Steve007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 10:05 am Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | In looking at some message boards, a lot of people seem to think that Snell is overrated, and they cite the following as proof of this:
--Has only thrown over 180 innings once in his career. (So has Buehler.)
--His Cy Young season of 2018 was a fluke
--Had a 4.29 ERA in '19
--Had a 4.35 FIP this past season, despite a good 3.24 ERA
--Gets his pitch count up because he's always trying to strike hitters out
--His 1.237 career WHIP is hardly elite
I think about it like this: I've seen what he can do in the postseason, and I believe his arsenal is perfectly set up for that. There might be years where he has an ERA below 3 in the regular season, and there might be a year where it is closer to 4 (I think '18, the CYA year, was an outlier, but so was '19). Since our team is an embarrassment of riches, let's be honest, there's a huge emphasis on postseason for this team. So why not pick up a starter who has shown an ability to silence the bats of the league's best hitters when it matters most?
Again, at his price, I would be trying hard for this guy. And maybe May and Lux both wouldn't be required. Maybe it could even be something like Ruiz and Lux, or Ruiz and Gray and a little more, who knows. I just know I would have serious interest. Friedman was in charge in Tampa when Snell was drafted in 2011. |
I had some concerns about Snell too. Only one dominant year and he did well this season, but the season was so ridiculously short.
However, he has a 2.83 postseason era after facing some tough lineups. I was pretty impressed with him in the postseason last year when I watched him face the Astros. If he looks anything like that with the Dodgers, I would love that.
I think it’s a fluke that he hasn’t had at least one more dominant season. He doesn’t look like a guy that just had one fluke season and then looked washed up after that. |
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4stargeneralbulldog
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| Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:50 pm Post subject: |
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Analytics is just another tool. It should never be used exclusively. You also have to go with instinct, guts, and feel for the game, and how the game is going. That's what the best managers have always done. You don't pull your ace pitcher that is dominating arguably the most dangerous lineup in baseball in a must win game of the World Series at 73 pitches.
Anyways, you get Snell if the reports are true. An Ace that is in his prime on a relatively cheap contract, you try and get him. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 6:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Los Angeles is reportedly close to making another huge international signing. Jesus Galiz is one of the top international prospects available this period, and he apparently chose LA over the Yankees. It also adds to the team’s depth at the catching position, perhaps making Keibert Ruiz a trade chip.
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| Quote: |
Jorge Castillo
@jorgecastillo
The Dodgers are close to signing 16-year-old Venezuelan catcher Jesus Galiz, per sources. Galiz is MLB Pipeline's 7th-ranked international prospect and the top-ranked catcher. The Yankees had been the favorites to sign him, but Galiz recently changed his mind.
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| Quote: | Galiz is ranked the seventh-best international prospect by MLB Pipeline and 25th overall by Baseball America. Both outlets additionally consider the 16-year-old the top catcher of the class.
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| Quote: | Signing another highly-touted catcher would further bolster the Dodgers’ organizational depth at the position. Will Smith appears to have cemented himself as their everyday catcher, and Austin Barnes is a superb backup.
Behind them are Keibert Ruiz, who made his MLB debut this season; as well as Diego Cartaya, who at only 17 years old is already projected as having the best future of the bunch.
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Wow, we love catchers.
We haven’t paid top dollar for a catcher since Friedman got here. We got 4 years out of Grandal and now 2 years of Smith.
| Quote: | Yankees are favorites to sign top international catching prospect Jesus Galiz: report
Galiz is a true two-way talent
4/30/2020
During last year's international free agent signing period, the Yankees landed Jasson Dominguez, viewed as the top prospect on the market and a future star.
This year, they are reportedly the favorites to sign Jesus Galiz, a top 10 international prospect and the best catching prospect available, according to MLB.com.
Galiz, 16, grew up dreaming of becoming the next Gleyber Torres, according to MLB.com's writeup on him, but his middle infield dream turned into one that landed him behind the plate as a true two-way threat.
Citing his "quick feet, strong arm, high baseball IQ and the overall athleticism," MLB.com's scouting report on Galiz says that the quick release he once used at shortstop has translated to behind the plate.
More from the scouting report on Galiz:
Galiz also shows advanced skills at the plate. The teen features a quick and compact swing with the ability to drive the ball to all fields. He also projects to have plus power in the future. Galiz still models his overall game, especially in the batter's box, after Torres.
He's an average runner now, but he projects to be a solid runner in the future. Galiz grew up with the game and has been training with Emiro Barboza, a member of MLB's Trainer Partnership Program, at his academy in Venezuela since he was 10 years old.
If the Yanks land Galiz as expected, he could quickly pass Anthony Seigler (currently New York's top-rated catching prospect and No. 15 prospect overall) as their most heralded backstop in the minors.
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 10:32 pm Post subject: |
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^
Good stuff, nice finds. Yeah, this could very well make Ruiz an extremely valuable trade chip, as he is visible to big league clubs since he just made his debut (and looked pretty good and poised). |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 10:44 pm Post subject: |
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| On the Snell front, it's also worth noting that the Braves are probably out on him (if they were ever in), given their signings of Morton and Smyly. |
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1995Lakers
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| Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:01 pm Post subject: |
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There is definitely no organization in baseball with the lineage of great catchers like the Dodgers:
Campanella - Scioscia - Piazza- Lo Duca - Martin - Smith
2 of these guys are numbers 1 and 2 in baseball history in hitting ability amongst every catcher who ever lived. 3 of these guys are multiple time all stars home grown by the Dodgers and the last guy has all the looks of being a slightly lower average more power version of Buster Posey |
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MookieBetts50
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| Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 1:21 pm Post subject: |
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If JT leaves who y'all like?
LeMahieu
Bryant
Arenado
Lindor
Other?
Last edited by MookieBetts50 on Fri Nov 27, 2020 1:35 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Moses
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| Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 1:27 pm Post subject: |
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| MookieBetts50 wrote: | If JT leaves who y'all like?
LeMahieu
Bryant
Arrenando
Lindor
Other? |
DJ comes with no acquisition cost so that’s a plus, but he’s also older.
Nolan to me is the best player of the bunch, but makes a lot of money and will probs cost a lot to get.
I think Bryant could be her cheaper than Nolan or Lindor, and could be a sneaky good pickup.
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 1:44 pm Post subject: |
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| Moses wrote: | | MookieBetts50 wrote: | If JT leaves who y'all like?
LeMahieu
Bryant
Arrenando
Lindor
Other? |
DJ comes with no acquisition cost so that’s a plus, but he’s also older.
Nolan to me is the best player of the bunch, but makes a lot of money and will probs cost a lot to get.
I think Bryant could be her cheaper than Nolan or Lindor, and could be a sneaky good pickup. |
Bryant's shoulder woes really worry me, so I would be extremely hesitant there. Seems like LeMahieu probably re-ups with the Yankees. The Lindor idea is still interesting, but it brings up a whole slew of issues: who plays SS, who plays 2B, who plays 3B, what does it mean for Seager's impending free agency and Lindor's impending free agency, who gets traded in such a deal, etc.
In looking at Arenado vs. Lindor, Arenado is probably the "cleanest" fit. Yes, he plays for a division rival, but that division rival has very little leverage, as I've mentioned before. Arenado would slide right into third base, so you don't have to worry about displacing Seager. Both Arenado and Lindor are essentially expiring contracts (to the team that currently employs them). Both are coming off down years by their standards. If I had to guess, Cleveland might get a little more for Lindor, just because they are free to trade him anywhere they please. The Rockies can only trade Arenado to a place where he agrees to go, so it limits what they can do. |
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Moses
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| Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 2:25 pm Post subject: |
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Yeah I think Bryant would only really be a one year option unless he shows he is fully healthy, not long getting Mookie where we extended him long before the season ended.
Lindor and Arenado would both be great, I’d take Bryant if the cost was low, and would also be interested in DJ if the contract isn’t ridiculous.
Given how much salary is coming off books after next year, I could even see Lindor / Nolan and Corey re signing. We have good and cheap young pitchers for next few seasons, we can maybe afford another big contract bat.
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:17 pm Post subject: |
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Interest in Jake "I Prefer My Eggs" Odorizzi? Urias as the new closer? A tidbit from an article in The Athletic from Andy McCullough (used to work for the LA Times)...
https://twitter.com/DustinNosler/status/1332494613828005889/photo/1
I still think the Dodgers are likely to view Urias as too valuable to use as a regular season closer. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:49 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | Interest in Jake "I Prefer My Eggs" Odorizzi? Urias as the new closer? A tidbit from an article in The Athletic from Andy McCullough (used to work for the LA Times)...
https://twitter.com/DustinNosler/status/1332494613828005889/photo/1
I still think the Dodgers are likely to view Urias as too valuable to use as a regular season closer. |
That’s interesting because we do have an abundance of starters right now:
Kershaw
Buehler
Urias
Price
May
Gonsolin
And if you think about it, if we weigh what we gain (Jansen upgraded to Urias) vs what we lose (Urias downgraded to Price/May/Gonsolin), it might be worth it for us as a team.
Of course, this is based on our current roster. We can always go out and sign Hendricks or Hand and we wouldn’t need this. |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:54 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | Interest in Jake "I Prefer My Eggs" Odorizzi? Urias as the new closer? A tidbit from an article in The Athletic from Andy McCullough (used to work for the LA Times)...
https://twitter.com/DustinNosler/status/1332494613828005889/photo/1
I still think the Dodgers are likely to view Urias as too valuable to use as a regular season closer. |
That’s interesting because we do have an abundance of starters right now:
Kershaw
Buehler
Urias
Price
May
Gonsolin
And if you think about it, if we weigh what we gain (Jansen upgraded to Urias) vs what we lose (Urias downgraded to Price/May/Gonsolin), it might be worth it for us as a team.
Of course, this is based on our current roster. We can always go out and sign Hendricks or Hand and we wouldn’t need this. |
Given Hand's decline in velocity, I would strongly prefer Hendriks if we are going to spend money on a reliever.
I think we can get through a regular season just fine without an elite closer. I just don't think we would make Urias a closer in the regular season. Keep him in the rotation, where at worst you have an effective 5-6 inning pitcher. And maybe he takes another leap up in class. Then you can put him in the bullpen for the postseason if need be.
Also, the need for a starter (even if you plan to keep Urias there) becomes more important if there's a trade involving one or both of May/Gonsolin. |
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loslakersss
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| Posted: Sat Nov 28, 2020 12:41 pm Post subject: |
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| 1995Lakers wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Would we use Snell like Tampa Bay does? They were so reluctant to let him face a batting order a 3rd time through. |
I don't think we would have as quick of a hook, I'll tell you that. I don't even think that Roberts, as weird as some of his decisions have been, would have dared take out an ace pitcher when he's at 73 pitches.
I'm sure we would be careful with him in the regular season. We rarely let Buehler throw over 100 pitches, for example, especially in the regular season. But I don't think we would see him as a 5-inning pitcher, like how we used to use Wood or even guys like May this year.
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It’s interesting because we’re both analytically driven teams.
Tampa Bay’s analytics tells them that the best way to win with Snell is to not let him face the lineup a 3rd time. They did that all year and it got them to the WS.
Our analytics would tell us something different?
It’s interesting cuz we’d be looking at the same numbers. |
Well good analytics should take into account when a guy is absolutely dealing vs looking at a guy's entire season. Then to replace him with Anderson whose regular season numbers contrasted greatly from performances recently? Give me the analytics of a guy is absolutely lights out going through the order 3rd time through vs putting in a good reliever who has been getting smacked repeatedly in recent times. |
To my understanding, that’s the point of analytics— to not get caught up the moment and trust what the numbers say is the right move regardless of what you think you see. As someone else pointed out, that’s what got them to the WS (even if they did almost blow a 3-0 ALCS lead). The thing is that this is what most teams do during the regular season but when you get to the playoffs you need more than just “making the right move” to win. You need to either have more talent, more luck, or usually a combination of both.
So while analytics said to take out Snell, they needed his talent to have a chance to win. And they needed luck (taking the chance and having it work). But they chose to go the safe route and the talent of the opponent was just too great for them to really have a chance. It still doesn’t make sense considering their manager had said earlier in the season that they need to take chances to win the series. Why not take the chance of riding a starter that’s dealing? Because if he listens to analytics and it doesn’t work then it’s not *his* fault, it’s just a good decision that didn’t work out. |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2020 7:03 pm Post subject: |
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MLB Trade Rumors has Kris Bryant likely to earn over $18MM in arbitration. For that reason, they list him as a possible non-tender by the Cubs. Just the fact that he is listed as a possibility for that makes me think that it wouldn't take much to acquire him. But, again, if you get him, you have to pay him a sizable salary this coming season, not to mention that he's a risk with that shoulder issue.
If he's right, he'd be a fantastic fit, as he has that positional versatility that the Dodgers covet, plus they are said to prefer a right-handed bat (particularly if Turner isn't coming back). |
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Steve007
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| Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2020 10:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | So while analytics said to take out Snell |
All the analytics I’ve seen say he should have stayed in the game! That’s why even analytics supporters are shocked.
Also, when a guy is dealing, the numbers are far more likely to be in his favor. He had a low pitch count, favorable matchups (the batters coming up were 0-6 with 6 k’s against him if I remember correctly), and looking at the numbers, the pitcher coming in made no sense. |
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Steve007
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| Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2020 10:23 pm Post subject: |
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This goes into more details about the analytics in that situation. I wonder what numbers the Rays were looking at because after watching this video, it’s even more hilarious how bad that decision was. Was Tampa trying to lose on purpose?
LINK
Btw, anyone that isn’t exactly a fan of Roberts will enjoy the end of the video.  |
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LakerLanny
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| Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:31 pm Post subject: |
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Just sign JT, I need playoff ballers, not prospects with regular season numbers.
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:52 pm Post subject: |
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| LakerLanny wrote: | | Just sign JT, I need playoff ballers, not prospects with regular season numbers. |
I think it's more likely than not that he returns if there's the universal DH again. If there isn't, I think it becomes a bit more murky. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2020 8:07 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | | LakerLanny wrote: | | Just sign JT, I need playoff ballers, not prospects with regular season numbers. |
I think it's more likely than not that he returns if there's the universal DH again. If there isn't, I think it becomes a bit more murky. |
I have a feeling they don’t value JT that highly anymore.
Last time he was a free agent he was a high priority for us.
This time, it kinda feels like eh... |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2020 8:20 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | LakerLanny wrote: | | Just sign JT, I need playoff ballers, not prospects with regular season numbers. |
I think it's more likely than not that he returns if there's the universal DH again. If there isn't, I think it becomes a bit more murky. |
I have a feeling they don’t value JT that highly anymore.
Last time he was a free agent he was a high priority for us.
This time, it kinda feels like eh... |
Despite the good defense by him in the postseason, we all saw how terrible he's gotten at the hot corner over the last 2 years. I don't think they want to play him at third base regularly any longer. I think if there's the DH, we might be able to work out a deal where he's still paid fairly and he can resume his captain-like role in our locker room and #3 spot in the batting order and he can occasionally get starts at first base and maybe even first base.
If he can get a 3-year deal for big money, I think we let him go. |
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32
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| Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:51 pm Post subject: |
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The Dodgers announced they've agreed to a one-year contract with LHP Scott Alexander and have tendered all remaining arbitration-eligible players.
https://twitter.com/DodgerInsider/status/1334307438405722112?s=19
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 6:12 pm Post subject: |
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Well, it's not the Brewers reliever we may have been thinking...
Los Angeles Dodgers
@Dodgers
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54s
The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired RHP Corey Knebel from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations.
Last edited by ChickenStu on Wed Dec 02, 2020 6:12 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 6:16 pm Post subject: |
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Was coming back from injury in '20 and only pitched 12 innings or so, so I'm not going to care too much about his stats. I will note that his average fastball was only 94.4 MPH according to Fangraphs, down considerably from his 2017-18 numbers.
Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
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1m
The #Dodgers certainly saw an opportunity in #Brewers veteran Corey Knebel, and did not blink at the projected $5.125 million salary by
@mlbtraderumors |
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