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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:29 pm    Post subject:

The betting lines for the Divisional playoffs:

Rams at Packers -7
Ravens at Bills -3
Browns at Chiefs -10
Bucs at Saints -3
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:18 am    Post subject:

The one upset I almost (but refrained) from predicting was the Browns over the Steelers. Cleveland's Covid problems had me doubt their ability to prepare for this game, too bad I second guessed myself. Pittsburgh hasn't been playing at a playoff-team level for weeks, even Chicago and WFT could probably beat them.

As ineffective as he was, I don't see Roethlisberger retiring as there's simply too much money on the table. You could argue that he threw for over 500 yards, but then almost all of those yards were in 45 minutes of garbage time football. Roethlisberger isn't Drew Brees, he doesn't have the quick processing skills and a strong running game to compensate for the lack of an arm. It doesn't help that his offensive line (particularly Villanueva and Pouncey) have transitioned from formidable to awful in just one season.

The only question in my mind is whether Pittsburgh asks him to restructure or retire.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:28 am    Post subject:

If I was the GM in Chicago, I'd ask Nagy to exit stage right. When you enter the playoffs as an 8-8 team and massive underdog, you take risks. Sure, the trick play didn't pan out, but that doesn't mean you stop taking chances in an effort to save face. While Trubisky isn't Brady or Rodgers, that doesn't mean you hide under your shell with safe plays. That was absolutely painful to watch.

That Wims drop was pathetic. It looked like high school football, when the receiver hasn't decided whether to catch with his hands or body-catch, the poor positioning of his hands was telling. Good play design, outstanding throw, but why did Chicago try running it with a poor receiver like Wims as the target? Maybe they were thinking that since it was Wims, the Saints would discount him as a threat.
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:05 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
The betting lines for the Divisional playoffs:

Rams at Packers -7
Ravens at Bills -3
Browns at Chiefs -10
Bucs at Saints -3



I realize Rodgers is a wonderful QB, and that he was hobbled by having the likes of Mike McCarthy, but with the wealth of talent on that talent should have taken him to more than just one Super Bowl. Rodgers has an incredible arm and is the best bucket-thrower in the history of the game when it comes to placement, but I think some of the accolades are the result of the long scrambles and brilliant throws which mask the flaws. He can be inconsistent in the pocket, especially in some of the biggest games. And of course, every playoff game is by definition a big game. He should dominate the Rams, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Rams take out Green Bay (yes, sacrilege).

The Bills defense looks awful. I'm rooting for them out of the AFC as it would be nice for the long-suffering Buffalo fans to find relief within their lifetimes. The emergence of Josh Allen is remarkable, he does not resemble the scatter-gun thrower from college. But that defense has really regressed, I thought they'd be far better on D this season. I think they'll beat the Ravens, but they need to contain Jackson.

The Chiefs are quite beatable. KC should win, but those points are very attractive against a team that tends to win by tight margins.

New Orleans over Tampa Bay: Take NO, they'll win by more than just 3. Tampa Bay is a horror show on pass defense. It doesn't take a strong arm to destroy the Bucs, they can be picked apart with quick, accurate short passes. The Bucs never change their defense from week to week, a testament to the ineptitude of Arians and Bowles. They never make adjustments to exploit their opponent or mask their own weaknesses. For example, if a good offensive line (like NO) renders the pass rush ineffective, that won't stop Bowles from sending 5 or even 6 after the QB, even if they're hemorrhaging from completed passes.

Tampa Bay's offense has improved, but that has everything to do with Tom Brady and not Arians and Leftwich. That's their one hope, in that the offense does not resemble the (bleep) show during the first two regular season losses to NO. What was telling was a few weeks ago when the Bucs were getting beaten down by Atlanta: the first half featured Arian's idiotic "no risk it, no biscuit" long ball, which is easy to defend, and often leads to interceptions or three-and-outs. It also isn't the strength of Brady's game. The second half was very different. Suddenly there was motion in the backfield (!) so that the QB could see whether the defense was man or zone. The passing game went from vertical to horizontal (very non-Arians/Leftwich) and suddenly Tampa Bay went on a roll and dug themselves out of a big deficit. The Bucs should have been doing that from the first week of the season, which is why they still have communications problems. But it looks like a moot point as New Orleans will dominate the Tampa Bay offensive line (Wirfs and Marpet are studs, the rest are god awful).
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:14 am    Post subject:

One last note: Trump announced that he's awarding the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Bill Belichick. If Belichick has an ounce of decency and common sense, he'll decline or conveniently step out of the country for two weeks.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2021 3:56 pm    Post subject:

Doug Pederson fired from Eagles....I suspect he won't have a problem finding another NFL coaching job within days.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:32 pm    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
Doug Pederson fired from Eagles....I suspect he won't have a problem finding another NFL coaching job within days.


While I believe his firing was very well deserved, there are already rumors he will land with the Jets, where GM Joe Douglas and he are chummy.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:40 pm    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:
One last note: Trump announced that he's awarding the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Bill Belichick. If Belichick has an ounce of decency and common sense, he'll decline or conveniently step out of the country for two weeks.


You got your wish...

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1348790788046680067/photo/1
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:42 pm    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:
BadGuy wrote:

What do you think of Mac Jones? ESPN is projecting he goes to the Colts at #21


I haven't found enough tape on Mac Jones, so here is a summary from just a few highlight tapes. It obviously ignores a tremendous body of snaps and situations.

Initial thoughts on Mac Jones: Some nice traits, he knows that his long ball placement is his strength. Note how he scans the field, he's looking for his deep WR, and if he's not comfortable, he looks for the next deep receiving talent. Pluses: He uses his strength nicely, and the placement tends to be money. Minuses/Questions: He tends to ignore the easier intermediate-level targets who were wide open (watch his eyes). Can he read the entire field well, or does this suggest some tunnel-vision or a processing issue? Or is he merely leveraging strength to strength (good long ball placement, outstanding receivers). The footwork desperately needs to cleaned up, leading to flings from a poor base. Is he really 6'3"? He doesn't look it. Undersized can be fine, but he's not that mobile, which means height is important when you stay within the pocket. Presence-wise, he may not have good peripheral vision as he should move up in the pocket at times. He did throw into some tight windows, but can he do this under pass rush pressure (he had excellent protection). Even bigger talent question that you need to ask (this is the biggest question of all, in fact): How much of this was Mac Jones, and how much of this was the product of having outstanding WRs? Those WRs are college level elite and definite pro prospects, with speed, quickness and route running that just blew the doors off of both zone and man coverage (thanks Nick Saban).



A continuation of my thoughts, after watching the championship game:

Once again, Mac Jones is an excellent bucket thrower. He was money on those long passes, it was impressive. He also hit his receivers on both short and intermediate level routes. He throws with anticipation and is a quick processor. Though the camera angles kind of sucked, there were a couple of times that the defense penetrated and Jones hit the safety valve (I am assuming they weren't drawn up as screens). He kept his head up under pressure, and felt and responded to the few instances of pressure.

Cons: He's not athletic, and that arm looks serviceable.

Questions: Again, Jones had elite receivers who are quality NFL prospects. He also had an outstanding offensive line, and that may not be the case in the pros when coverage is complex, the DEs/DLs are fast, and the offensive line may not be that good at pass blocking.

Conclusion: This is a dink and dunk QB who will mix a long route in to keep the defenses stretched. That long ball placement has to be respected. If he's committed to the game (sleeps with the playbook, watches lots of film in the wee hours, gets quality coaching) he might end up being a very good QB. I think the lack of big-gun arm and limited athleticism will limit his perceived upside, and make him a mid to late first round pick.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:27 pm    Post subject:

^
Yes, I think Jones could be a late 1st.

On another note, the story of Jared Veldheer is pretty crazy. So he played for the Colts last week, off their practice squad, in the playoffs. Due to this year's COVID rules and because he was on their practice squad, he could be picked up by the Packers this week. So he was set to play in the same postseason for 2 different playoff teams!

Just one problem: he tested positive for the rona, and so obviously that won't happen now.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:38 am    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:
angrypuppy wrote:
BadGuy wrote:

What do you think of Mac Jones? ESPN is projecting he goes to the Colts at #21


I haven't found enough tape on Mac Jones, so here is a summary from just a few highlight tapes. It obviously ignores a tremendous body of snaps and situations.

Initial thoughts on Mac Jones: Some nice traits, he knows that his long ball placement is his strength. Note how he scans the field, he's looking for his deep WR, and if he's not comfortable, he looks for the next deep receiving talent. Pluses: He uses his strength nicely, and the placement tends to be money. Minuses/Questions: He tends to ignore the easier intermediate-level targets who were wide open (watch his eyes). Can he read the entire field well, or does this suggest some tunnel-vision or a processing issue? Or is he merely leveraging strength to strength (good long ball placement, outstanding receivers). The footwork desperately needs to cleaned up, leading to flings from a poor base. Is he really 6'3"? He doesn't look it. Undersized can be fine, but he's not that mobile, which means height is important when you stay within the pocket. Presence-wise, he may not have good peripheral vision as he should move up in the pocket at times. He did throw into some tight windows, but can he do this under pass rush pressure (he had excellent protection). Even bigger talent question that you need to ask (this is the biggest question of all, in fact): How much of this was Mac Jones, and how much of this was the product of having outstanding WRs? Those WRs are college level elite and definite pro prospects, with speed, quickness and route running that just blew the doors off of both zone and man coverage (thanks Nick Saban).



A continuation of my thoughts, after watching the championship game:

Once again, Mac Jones is an excellent bucket thrower. He was money on those long passes, it was impressive. He also hit his receivers on both short and intermediate level routes. He throws with anticipation and is a quick processor. Though the camera angles kind of sucked, there were a couple of times that the defense penetrated and Jones hit the safety valve (I am assuming they weren't drawn up as screens). He kept his head up under pressure, and felt and responded to the few instances of pressure.

Cons: He's not athletic, and that arm looks serviceable.

Questions: Again, Jones had elite receivers who are quality NFL prospects. He also had an outstanding offensive line, and that may not be the case in the pros when coverage is complex, the DEs/DLs are fast, and the offensive line may not be that good at pass blocking.

Conclusion: This is a dink and dunk QB who will mix a long route in to keep the defenses stretched. That long ball placement has to be respected. If he's committed to the game (sleeps with the playbook, watches lots of film in the wee hours, gets quality coaching) he might end up being a very good QB. I think the lack of big-gun arm and limited athleticism will limit his perceived upside, and make him a mid to late first round pick.


Would be very happy to see the Colts draft him based on the limited film i've watched so far. I do not have faith in Rivers or Wentz as the future QB (nor Eason).
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:08 pm    Post subject:

Urban Meyer to the Jags.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:25 pm    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
Urban Meyer to the Jags.


It may not work, but I like the move for them. Upside is there and they needed an infusion of energy. With the #1 pick, tons of upcoming draft capital even beyond the #1 pick, and $100MM in cap space, they could turn their fortunes around rather quickly if they do it the right way. They are in a similar position to what Miami was in a couple of years ago.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:03 pm    Post subject:

I'm sure if this tanks Urban will probably claim health problems as the reason why he can't do the job.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:28 pm    Post subject:

Basketball Fan wrote:
I'm sure if this tanks Urban will probably claim health problems as the reason why he can't do the job.


Yeah you know he's unlikely to be there for 10+ years or something, but if they can just get the thing moving in the right direction, presumably with Lawrence, I'm sure they will think it will be worth it.

Saleh was hired by the Jets. Good hire, I think. Seems like Arthur Smith has been connected to the Falcons and Brian Daboll to the Chargers. We'll see.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 9:21 am    Post subject:

OK, after a rough 1-4-1 weekend vs the spread last week, your fearless NFL prognosticator is back for more.

Based on the lines that ChickenStu posted above:

Rams at Packers -7
Ravens at Bills -3
Browns at Chiefs -10
Bucs at Saints -3

Rams at Packers -7

7 is a lot of points for a playoff game and the Rams do have a great defense. But the writing is on the wall here, Green Bay is a much better offense than Seattle and the Rams look ineffectual with Goff at QB. I will give the points and take Green Bay to cover.

Ravens at Bills -3

This is a very interesting game. Baltimore is red hot and a team no one wants to play. Buffalo has been tremendous this season, but laid a bit of an egg last week vs. Indy although they did win. Buffalo will need to play better this week to win. This is a very tough one to pick, but I am going to go with Baltimore as they seem to be peaking at the right time.

Browns at Chiefs -10

Browns shocked everyone last week (except me who picked them for my one win) by finally winning at Pittsburgh. Chiefs are tremendous but seemed to slow down a bit offensively late in the season. Another tough one to pick, but I think 10 points is too much and will take the Browns to lose the game, yet cover the spread.

Bucs at Saints -3

I have been big on Tampa all season as I like their big play offense. The Saints however are a very well rounded team and have had Tampa's number this season. As tough as it is to beat a team 3 times in the same season, I think that is exactly what is going to happen here. I am going with the Saints at home, though I would feel better if it was in front of a full house of screaming Saints fans.


There you have it, I think you know what to do!
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 9:29 am    Post subject:

Basketball Fan wrote:
I'm sure if this tanks Urban will probably claim health problems as the reason why he can't do the job.


He is going to have to change his approach to losing for sure. In the NFL, you aren't going to outrecruit teams like in college and you ARE going to lose games.

If every loss eats away at him like he has shown in the past, he won't be long for the league.

That said, he is a tremendous coach and winner and I will be very interested to see if he can translate that into the NFL successfully like a Pete Carroll or if he will fail like a Nick Saban.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 5:18 pm    Post subject:

LakerLanny wrote:
OK, after a rough 1-4-1 weekend vs the spread last week, your fearless NFL prognosticator is back for more.

Based on the lines that ChickenStu posted above:

Rams at Packers -7
Ravens at Bills -3
Browns at Chiefs -10
Bucs at Saints -3

Rams at Packers -7

7 is a lot of points for a playoff game and the Rams do have a great defense. But the writing is on the wall here, Green Bay is a much better offense than Seattle and the Rams look ineffectual with Goff at QB. I will give the points and take Green Bay to cover.

Ravens at Bills -3

This is a very interesting game. Baltimore is red hot and a team no one wants to play. Buffalo has been tremendous this season, but laid a bit of an egg last week vs. Indy although they did win. Buffalo will need to play better this week to win. This is a very tough one to pick, but I am going to go with Baltimore as they seem to be peaking at the right time.

Browns at Chiefs -10

Browns shocked everyone last week (except me who picked them for my one win) by finally winning at Pittsburgh. Chiefs are tremendous but seemed to slow down a bit offensively late in the season. Another tough one to pick, but I think 10 points is too much and will take the Browns to lose the game, yet cover the spread.

Bucs at Saints -3

I have been big on Tampa all season as I like their big play offense. The Saints however are a very well rounded team and have had Tampa's number this season. As tough as it is to beat a team 3 times in the same season, I think that is exactly what is going to happen here. I am going with the Saints at home, though I would feel better if it was in front of a full house of screaming Saints fans.


There you have it, I think you know what to do!


I liked the Packers in the first game also, with all the Rams injury issues. For the other 3, I like the Bills, Browns, and Bucs to cover. Ravens-Bills just kicked off, and it should be a good one.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 5:20 pm    Post subject:

Basketball Fan wrote:
I'm sure if this tanks Urban will probably claim health problems as the reason why he can't do the job.


He'll probably have more losses in his first year in the NFL than the past couple of teams he's coached. Because of the parity in the NFL college coaches can't out recruit other teams.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 6:04 pm    Post subject:

Swirling winds in Buffalo tonight. Each kicker has missed a FG, uncharacteristically, and Allen has been off with some passes because of it. With the Ravens clearly the better running team (Buffalo has literally not called a running play yet), you'd think that the weather may favor them. We'll see. 3-0 Bills so far.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 6:15 pm    Post subject:

Tucker has now doinked two field goals. You have to be kidding me!
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 7:10 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Tucker has now doinked two field goals. You have to be kidding me!

Killed my first qtr Ravens bet.

He never misses...
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 7:11 pm    Post subject:

Bills so far doing a great job containing Lamar "Showtime" Jackson.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 7:12 pm    Post subject:

Buffalo actually mixes in some rush attempts and they score, now lead it 10-3.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 7:23 pm    Post subject:

Bills with a pick 6 in the Ravens endzone....17-3 in favor of the Bills.
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