🏈NFL SEASON THREAD🏈
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:27 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
Matt Bowen
ESPN Staff Writer

Quick notes on Tampa's wild-card win over Washington —

• Play-action with Tom Brady. 12/11 personnel. Verticals, deep overs, seams. Timing/rhythm throws. Best fit for this offense.


Pretty much what I mentioned earlier, Tampa Bay should go with 12 personnel packages. They used Brate well, understandably Gronk was needed to help out on pass protection. Going with 11 looked good at times, but drops killed too many drives.
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BadGuy
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:18 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
LakerLanny wrote:
going for 2 when you could have just kicked the extra point to be down 7 was even worse.


There’s an article that says going for 2 gives them a 59% chance to win whereas going for 1 gives them a 45.5% chance to win.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28100383/going-2-8-points-why-nfl-teams-keep-doing-why-analytics-backs-up


From what i can tell, the issue is that analytics are stats without context for an individual game. When coaches blindly follow analytics with no feel for the game they are in, they just look like (bleep) morons like Frank Reich did today. When you make decisions that repeatedly fail (then turn around and say, "but the analytics...!"), no one really cares because i don't think any coach in the league has the last name "Analytics" to be making the final call.

I truly hope Frank Reich is fired because he has been doing this dumb (bleep) all year long with no understanding of his personnel (perhaps, he is going senile and thinks Rivers is 10 years younger than he actually is).
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:28 am    Post subject:

Today's NFL picks vs. the spread.

Yesterday I had a rough go, going 0-2-1 vs. the spread.

Lines courtesy Bovada.

Baltimore -3.5 at Tennessee

This is an interesting game. Baltimore has been rolling late and Tennessee gives up tons of points. That said, I am still not 100% sold on Lamar Jackson in a playoff game. I will take Tennessee and the points here, but I don't love it.

Chicago +10.5 at New Orleans

New Orleans is a very well rounded team. Chicago though has been coming on of late and have been controlling the ball on the ground and they have a great defense. I think 10.5 is too many points to cover, look for Chicago to cover this spread. I will go with the Monsters of the Midway, the Chicago Bears.

Cleveland +6 at Pittsburgh

As Jodeke and others have been pointing out for weeks, Pittsburgh is vulnerable. Cleveland tends to play up or down to their competition from week to week but I don't think Pittsburgh will be able to run the ball on them. I will probably regret this pick considering Cleveland has lost 17 straight at Heinz Field, but I will take the Browns to cover here.

So after going down the smokestacks with all three favorites yesterday, today I am taking all three underdogs.

Stay tuned, lol....
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:02 am    Post subject:

Ravens offense and Lamar struggling, but Tennessee can't get Derrick Henry going, so it's 10-3 Tennessee late in the first half, with the Ravens having the ball.

I'll take the two favorites to cover later today, by the way. The Bears go into the game really banged up, and Roquan Smith and Darnell Mooney are out. (I'd probably want that line at 10, though.) As for the Browns, they have had massive COVID issues this week and won't even have their head coach.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:06 am    Post subject:

And Lamar busts loose for a 48 yard TD run! Tie game.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:17 pm    Post subject:

17-13 Ravens and the Titans get the ball in good field position after Justin Tucker uncharacteristically missed a 52-yard FG.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:27 pm    Post subject:

Mike Vrabel going for the Anthony Lynn award apparently. Titans get the ball to the Ravens 40 with 2nd and 2. End up punting from the 40 on 4th and 2. Baltimore gets into Titans territory 4 plays later.

Just a comically awful sequence from the Titans.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:53 pm    Post subject:

Ravens prevail. I still can't believe the Titans punted in that situation. What a gutless, gutless decision.
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Halflife
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 1:40 pm    Post subject:

Happy for Lamar
Btw that Monday night football booth is pretty strong
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 2:29 pm    Post subject:

Halflife wrote:
Happy for Lamar
Btw that Monday night football booth is pretty strong


They didn't even discuss punting on 4th and 2 from the 40 with 10 minutes to go and down by 4. Didn't even bring it up. On other ESPN platforms they were incredulous, of course. I saw a Twitter account that is devoted to awful decisions to punt as it relates to analytics, and it had this decision as a 100th percentile awful decision among punts this season (so THE worst decision), and a 99.98th percentile decision to punt since 2009.

The Bears ran one of the best trick plays you'll ever see which should have tied the game at 7-7, with Trubisky launching an absolutely perfect bomb, and Wims just flat-out dropped it. So it's still 7-0, although the Bears did just get a tipped ball INT.

EDIT: No interception, upon further review.
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 4:15 pm    Post subject:

The Bears had one trick play, followed by almost an entire game of conservative, tepid play calls. The were more concerned with not making mistakes rather than winning. On defense, they've had something like four neutral zone infractions and a collection other undisciplined penalties.

I guess Chicago was just happy to get there.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 4:30 pm    Post subject:

Washington and Bears were probably the worst teams that made the playoffs.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:29 pm    Post subject:

Browns up 14-0 and only 5 mins into the game.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:51 pm    Post subject:

Browns up 28-0 and we are near the end of the 1st quarter.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:52 pm    Post subject:

This is just stunning.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:55 pm    Post subject:

Starting to look like one of Baker Mayfield's games in college.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:44 pm    Post subject:

Not so fast, my friends! It's 35-23 now. Still late 3rd quarter.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:45 pm    Post subject:

Browns aren't gonna blow this game are they???? I mean their offense has stalled.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:56 pm    Post subject:

That should be the game if the Browns defense can hold or slow the Steelers offense.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:58 pm    Post subject:

Oh what do you know, another coach with a gutless punt decision -- this one on 4th and 1 -- and the other team immediately goes down the field and scores. That should do it. They had all the momentum, did the Steelers, but you're still down 12 with 15 minutes to go. You have to keep your foot on the gas.

Why are these coaches so afraid?!?!
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:05 pm    Post subject:

Browns defense did a pathetic job this sequence. Steelers quickly score.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:21 pm    Post subject:

Steelers need a perfect final 4:30 here. TD, 2-point conversion, recover onside kick or get a quick Browns 3-and-out, TD, 2-point conversion.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:24 pm    Post subject:

And with that INT, the Browns should advance to play the Chiefs next week.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:24 pm    Post subject:

And that'll do it. Four INT's. Wow.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:28 pm    Post subject:

Had a 4-2 weekend, losing the games where the Rams and Browns pulled off road wins. Revised picks from here:

Packers over Rams
Bucs over Saints
Chiefs over Browns
Bills over Ravens

Packers over Bucs
Chiefs over Bills

Packers over Chiefs
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