🏈NFL 2023 DISCUSSION THREAD🏈

panamaniac · Posted: Sat Mar 20, 2021 12:18 pm Post subject:

The timing on the Watson allegations seems odd for sure. I think we’re going to have to see more in order to formulate a good conclusion. If he’s indeed guilty of said accusations then his brand will rightfully take a hit and it’ll hurt his trade prospects.

ChickenStu · Posted: Sat Mar 20, 2021 9:28 pm Post subject:

The attorney for the women who have alleged claims against Watson says that the number of women could grow to 22. He also says that the police department has been in contact with him, though they refuted that. If it becomes a criminal matter, then it's obviously quite serious. It would be one thing if Watson was asking for happy endings and just made people feel uncomfortable. It would be another matter entirely if he actually touched them in a non-consensual manner. When you have this many alleged accusers, it does beg the question: are they all lying? I don't dismiss that possibility, but I guess we have to wait to see more information come out. Watson's attorney (who has represented Roger Clemens in the past, among others) says that they will have a response sometime next week and to "keep an open mind."

I don't want the guy to be guilty. I'm a fan. But if he was touching women inappropriately, he deserves whatever fate comes to him.

angrypuppy · Retired Number Joined: 13 Apr 2001 Posts: 32754

The number of lawsuits filed now stands at 11, and yes, could grow to 22. This is going to be tricky to navigate. Is Watson a sexual predator? I suppose a crafty defense attorney could convince a jury that masseuses put themselves in a compromising position, but the sheer number is pretty overwhelming. In the event if these 12 to 22 are all masseuses, why is Watson seeking out so many different women? And if they are not all masseuses, by all appearances it is even worse.

I'll wait for the evidence. I usually give people the benefit of the doubt, but on the surface Watson looks like a serial sexual predator.

angrypuppy · Retired Number Joined: 13 Apr 2001 Posts: 32754

ChickenStu · Posted: Sat Mar 27, 2021 9:47 pm Post subject:

Nobody commented on all the trades, wow! I think Miami did incredibly well, essentially moving from 3 to 6 but gaining two San Francisco 1st Round picks and a San Francisco 3rd Round pick (and losing one of their own). They should still be in a position to draft Ja'Marr Chase or Kyle Pitts (or one of the Alabama WR's) at 6 and they got all that extra draft capital. I get why Philly did it, as they get the extra 1st Round pick next year and there's at least a 50/50 chance that one of DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle is still there at 12, with maybe an outside chance at Pitts.

Then there's San Francisco. Obviously, they gave up a boatload. I think it's Trey Lance that they have moved up for, but we'll see. I saw some chatter that Shanahan would love a QB like Mac Jones but I would be downright shocked if they gave all that up to move up to 3 to take him. Seems like an awfully unnecessary thing to do. I guess it could still be Fields, especially if they end up trading Garoppolo before the draft. But my guess is Lance, at least for now.

With San Francisco essentially guaranteed to take a QB at 3 now, it just means that Cincinnati has to avoid one more land mine at 4 (either Atlanta or if Atlanta trades out of the pick) in order to have Penei Sewell fall to them at 5, which I'm sure is their dream scenario.

panamaniac · Posted: Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:35 am Post subject:

If Miami can nail a good portion of their incoming draft selections, particularly the higher rounds, we'll be able to look back on the Laremy Tunsil deal as their version of the Herschel Walker trade.

ChickenStu · Posted: Sun Mar 28, 2021 4:14 pm Post subject:

In light of free agency being mostly completed and with the recent trades, it's time for a new mock:

1. Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
No intrigue here.

2. Jets
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
It's becoming quite apparent that Wilson is going to be the choice at #2, and I'd expect Sam Darnold to get moved before the draft.

3. 49ers
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota St.
Lance might be viewed similarly to how Patrick Mahomes was seen as a draft prospect coming into the draft, as in, that he's raw and needs to be coached up. If the 49ers keep Jimmy G, that could lend credence to the thought that Lance will be the pick and that he can sit and learn for a bit.

4. Panthers
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio St.
TRADE! The Falcons could absolutely take Fields for themselves, but I'm skeptical that they will after restructuring Matt Ryan's deal. The Falcons would have a $45MM dead cap hit next year, so if the idea is to play Fields next season, they lose the benefit of the cap savings you'd normally get from starting a QB on their rookie deal. Instead, they might be wise to trade down with the Panthers, who could feel compelled to move up to get the last of the top 4 QB's. Carolina gives up #39 overall (their 2nd rounder), and next year's 2022 1st rounder.

5. Bengals
Penei Sewell, OL, Oregon
The dream scenario for Cincy, as they get a franchise LT for Joe Burrow, thus strengthening the O-line in 3 places: LT, RT (where Jonah Williams can move), and at a guard spot, where Riley Reiff was just signed.

6. Dolphins
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
The end result of Miami's move from 3 to 12 and then back up to 6 is that they now have San Francisco's 1st Round pick next year, and their own 1st and San Francisco's 1st in 2023, plus a 3rd rounder from the 49ers as well. Considering that they very well may have selected Chase at 3 anyway, this is what you call a masterful job by Chris Grier. They still have a lot riding on Tua, but if he hits, they are very well set up.

7. Lions
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
I'm elevating Waddle over his Alabama teammate, Smith, because I think there may be some concerns over Smith's very slight build and, also, his decision to not test at all during his Pro Day. Waddle was seen as the better NFL prospect going into the 2020 college season, and it's not like his game tape while healthy showed anything to dim his NFL prospects.

8. Falcons
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
After moving down to 8, the Falcons nab an incredible weapon for the offense in Pitts.

9. Broncos
Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
The Broncos have to ask themselves if they are really willing to go into the season with Drew Lock as their starter. This is a team that has made good additions to the secondary in free agency, gets Von Miller back, and has all the offensive skill position talent you could want. But Lock's inconsistency is holding them back. Jones is the anti-Lock, as a precision passer who is accurate. That's what Denver needs, not an erratic gunslinger.

10. Cowboys
Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama
With Caleb Farley undergoing his second back surgery in less than 18 months, I feel that Dallas would opt for Surtain instead.

11. Giants
Micah Parsons, LB, Penn St.
Parsons tested incredibly well at his Pro Day, as expected, and perhaps Dave Gettleman will see him as his new Luke Kuechly.

12. Eagles
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
With Smith still there, the Eagles will have done well to get him after trading down to this spot, and picking up Miami's 2021 1st out of it.

13. Chargers
Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
Much like the Bengals struck paydirt with Sewell at 5, the Chargers would have to be doing cartwheels if Slater lasts to this pick.

14. Vikings
Christian Darrisaw, OL, Virginia Tech
Riley Reiff was let go, so there could be an opening on the O-line. This would allow Ezra Cleveland to stay at a guard spot, and Brian O'Neill and Darrisaw would be the tackles.

15. Patriots
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
It's back-to-back Hokies off the board. If the Pats aren't trading Gilmore, Farley would be in the perfect spot to become a Patriot, as they wouldn't need to push him too hard in his rookie year, if the back surgery is an issue. They could be getting CB1 talent at a slight discount.

16. Cardinals
Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
Horn, the son of former NFL WR Joe Horn, could step right into the shoes of the departed Patrick Peterson.

17. Raiders
Jackson Carman, OL, Clemson
The Raiders have a need for a tackle, and since they frequently reach for 1st Round picks under the current regime and since they have a proclivity to take Clemson players, this is as good of a guess as any.

18. Dolphins
Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
With the Steelers a threat at #23 to take Harris, and with another pick coming up at #36, Miami could pick yet another Crimson Tide player with this selection. Rightly or wrongly, the team has clearly been looking to upgrade from Myles Gaskin.

19. Washington Football Team
Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
Washington has Landon Collins coming back from his Achilles injury, and Moehrig makes sense as the first safety off the board.

20. Bears
Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
With obvious needs at QB, O-line, and CB (thanks to the Kyle Fuller release), I like the value of taking a hog mollie the best in this spot for Chicago. Hence, the USC product comes off the board.

21. Colts
Kwity Paye, DL, Michigan
A pass rusher finally gets his name called, as the athletic Michigan man goes to Indy. This is a relatively weak pass rusher draft, though that doesn't mean that several of them can't be hits.

22. Titans
Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
In an offseason that saw the departures of Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, and Adam Humphries, a lot of targets need to be replaced. Bateman should have a good shot to replace Davis as the team's WR2 right away.

23. Jets
Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
Robert Saleh's 49er defenses thrived with waves of pass rushers coming at opposing offensive lines. Carl Lawson and Vinny Curry were signed, as was Sheldon Rankins on the interior, but Rousseau would be a long-term bookend to Lawson.

24. Steelers
Teven Jenkins, OL, Oklahoma St.
The Steelers need O-line reinforcements in the worst way, and Jenkins is a powerful run-blocker who also rated very favorably in pass protection on an island, though in a relatively low number of snaps in pass pro.

25. Jaguars
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
More of a hybrid chess piece type of defender, similar to Isaiah Simmons in last year's draft, JOK would add another dimension for Urban Meyer's bunch.

26. Browns
Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami
The only question about Phillips is his concussion history while at UCLA. After transferring to Miami, he starred in Rousseau's stead.

27. Ravens
Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
Sammy Watkins was signed, but he's obviously not a long-term answer, and he's more of a speed receiver, similar to Hollywood Brown. Moore is a savvy route-runner and has drawn Antonio Brown comps, as a guy with strong short-area quickness as opposed to blazing speed. Perhaps he could be Lamar Jackson's go-to guy on 3rd downs, along with Mark Andrews at TE.

28. Saints
Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
With a need at LB, this would be good value for the team, better than Christian Barmore imo.

29. Packers
Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern
A clear 1st Round talent, similar to Phillips, the only question about Newsome is his injury history. Still, the Packers are so close to getting back to another Super Bowl, and have a huge hole on the depth chart behind Jaire Alexander at CB.

30. Bills
Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
It seems like Ojulari has separated a bit from the likes of Jayson Oweh and Ronnie Perkins as the fourth pass rusher to come off the board, and Buffalo certainly could use the help.

31. Chiefs
Liam Eichenberg, OL, Notre Dame
A technically refined lineman, he seems like the type that the Chiefs would favor over the other possible OL choices left like Jalen Mayfield or Sam Cosmi.

32. Buccaneers
Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
The Bucs have remarkably managed to bring back all of their starters from last year's Super Bowl team, on both sides of the ball. Still, Barmore is the best interior D-line player available, and Ndamukong Suh is obviously a year-to-year proposition.

angrypuppy · Retired Number Joined: 13 Apr 2001 Posts: 32754

Solid draft Stu, one of the better projections I've seen.

And Mac Jones keeps ascending!

I shy away from projecting RBs in the first round. I think there's a decent chance that both Harris and Etienne drop out of the first round completely. I get folks being enamored with Kity Paye, but the production should limit him to 20th to 32nd. He will benefit from the poor pass rushers in this draft. Jaelan Phillips is also an interesting case in that those concussions might have him drop to late first, early second. I'm not sure what New England is up to, they're probably hoping that Mac Jones will be available at 15. It makes no sense to have gone on a free agent shopping spree for TEs and WRs, while sticking with a QB who has perfected the bounce pass.

ChickenStu · Posted: Sun Mar 28, 2021 6:57 pm Post subject:

angrypuppy · Retired Number Joined: 13 Apr 2001 Posts: 32754

I think New England should move up and grab a QB. I'm not thrilled about Fields, he doesn't sense pressure, does not process the field well, has serious problems hitting receivers in tight coverage, and doesn't throw with anticipation. The common denominator is poor processing and poor pocket presence, the very things that have plagued Darnold. Lance has some elite traits, but then I really want to see him work through his progressions while in the pocket. Fields is the more ready of the two to be an NFL starter, while Lance has the highest ceiling and lowest floor among all five top draft QBs.

Bear in mind that Belichick has an expiration date. I think he's sticking around for two reasons: 1. Brady winning the Super Bowl without him must really stick in his craw, particularly when he coached a losing season. 2. I think he's grooming his son Steve Belichick to replace him. I think Belichick is best served moving up to grab Jones, if just for insurance. There's a rumor he's enamored with Fields. I don't think he'll move up and grab Lance, that just doesn't fit the aforementioned time horizon. I think Lance is more than one season away from being an NFL starting QB.

To answer your question specifically, if Belichick has a man-crush on Fields, I could see him gambling with a couple of first round picks and change to move up. If that's the case, he must really see something. I just hope that he doesn't evaluate QBs like he evaluates WRs.

ChickenStu · Posted: Sun Mar 28, 2021 10:55 pm Post subject:

^
I'm not saying your evaluation on Fields is wrong, but I heard a lot of the same stuff about Deshaun Watson coming out of Clemson. I saw them both go out there against the best possible competition in the CFP and kick butt, and Fields severely outplayed Trevor Lawrence in the same game. Like, severely. He was playing hurt in the final against Alabama so he wasn't as good, but still, you saw him make some plays.

I think he's closer to Lawrence than Wilson or Lance are close to Fields. Just my opinion. I could be wrong.

angrypuppy · Retired Number Joined: 13 Apr 2001 Posts: 32754

Halflife · Franchise Player Joined: 15 Aug 2015 Posts: 16704

jets are dopey. darnold is legit. Someone is going to get lucky with him.

panamaniac · Posted: Mon Mar 29, 2021 4:02 pm Post subject:

ChickenStu · Posted: Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:52 am Post subject:

Chatter starting to pick up that SF likes Mac Jones at 3. I'd be stunned if they gave all that up for him, but I've seen stranger things in the NFL. If they take Jones 3rd overall, there's a realistic chance that Fields is the 5th QB taken, which is just insane to me. The dude played well against a strong schedule over 2 years and absolutely embarrassed Clemson in the CFP. Then you have Zach Wilson, who feasted on a schedule of nobodies and who struggled against teams that weren't cupcakes. Trey Lance has played like 2 football games in 2 years. I just don't get it.

LakerLanny · Retired Number Joined: 24 Oct 2001 Posts: 47580

ChickenStu · Posted: Tue Mar 30, 2021 6:07 pm Post subject:

angrypuppy · Retired Number Joined: 13 Apr 2001 Posts: 32754

I looked back to my previous post, and realized I overstated my case. I liked Watson, but not to the extent that I thought he was worth more than a late teens pick.

I like Fields, he has flashes of outstanding accuracy. He's more NFL-ready than the presumptive QB2, Wilson, who I think is getting overrated. But the guys I like are the ones with better risk/reward ratios: Mac Jones and Trey Lance. Jones' arm might limit him to career backup status, that's a serious concern. But the processing skills, pocket presence, etc. are outstanding and will likely translate readily to the NFL level. He'll need a quality offensive line, that's the caveat.

Lance is the home run guy. Very elite traits, but quite risky.

angrypuppy · Retired Number Joined: 13 Apr 2001 Posts: 32754

LakerLanny · Retired Number Joined: 24 Oct 2001 Posts: 47580

ChickenStu · Posted: Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:20 pm Post subject:

There's an interesting theory floating around about the Mac Jones rumor to the 49ers at #3. The theory is that Robert Saleh tipped the 49ers off that the Jets won't be taking a QB at #2 and that the 49ers really want Zach Wilson to be available to them at 3. This is why they are leaking this Mac Jones interest, because they don't want teams to know they really want Wilson. In other words, they don't want to give a team a reason to trade up to 2 with the Jets to have Wilson taken away from them. And that being tipped off by Saleh is the reason they gave up as much as they did, presumably for Wilson. And the thought was that the Jets would take Pitts for their offense and give Darnold one more shot.

Personally, I don't buy it. I just don't think they can risk Darnold continuing to be terrible and passing on a chance to re-set the rookie QB clock. I think they have to go QB and will, but we'll see.

angrypuppy · Retired Number Joined: 13 Apr 2001 Posts: 32754

As much as I like Mac Jones, taking him at #3 seems like an overdraft. I mean we can try making sense of it, if you rationalize it out: Jimmy G doesn't have a big arm, but he does have a quick release, decent accuracy and good processing skills. Mac Jones is a strong analog to Jimmy G in that regard. Also factor in that SF is a win now team, and I'm not confident that window will remain open much longer. Jones is perhaps the most NFL-ready QB in this draft.

I don't buy it either. The Jets would have to be stupid to stick with Darnold at this point. I agree, in terms of the team development curve and cap management, it is time for them to reset at QB.

I'm intrigued by Trey Lance. If Lance is available at #7, I hope New England trades up with Detroit and nabs him. If not, maybe move up a couple of draft slots and grab Mac Jones. I have a theory that Cam Newton was quietly disguising a damaged shoulder last season, perhaps a rotator cuff that was never repaired. I suspect it's old tear that healed on its own, which means there's no pain and he'd pass a physical. But you can never regain that full fluidity on your throwing motion (I can attest to that first hand). That might also explain how his mechanics got worse as the season progressed, in that he was compensating for the loss of his "fastball" on those passes.

Cam has some football left in him, but he should be playing as a TE or FB.

angrypuppy · Retired Number Joined: 13 Apr 2001 Posts: 32754

The other Miami EDGE, Greg Rousseau is likely going to drop much further than Jaelan Phillips. Poor numbers at his Pro Day. The perception was that while Rousseau was very raw, he had length and athleticism. Now it looks like he only has length. Those numbers also suggest that he may have goofed off during his year off, rather than trained hard for the combine/Pro Day like most serious NFL prospects.

Jaelan Phillips still might drop due to concussion and injury history, but now it looks like a safe bet that his team mate and EDGE predecessor is going to drop further.

ChickenStu · Posted: Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:12 am Post subject:

ChickenStu · Posted: Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:22 am Post subject:

Caleb Farley and Gregory Rousseau appear to be falling down draft boards. Here are some who are rising...

Kyle Pitts (could go as high as 4th to Atlanta, or 2nd to Jets if they pass on a QB and don't trade out)
Mac Jones (a lock to go top 15 and is being talked about for #3 overall)
Patrick Surtain and Jaycee Horn (both helped by Farley's back surgery)
Alijah Vera-Tucker (looks like he's being viewed as the top interior OL)
Jaelan Phillips (as ap wrote, strong Pro Day backs up outstanding play in '20)
Jamin Davis and Kelvin Joseph (Kentucky defenders wowed in their Pro Days)
Azeez Ojulari (great shot to go in the 1st now)
Jacob Harris (UCF WR/TE ran in the low 4.4's at his Pro Day, chance to be a Day Two pick)