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Hero Ball
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Joined: 26 May 2015
Posts: 4403
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 Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:47 am Post subject: |
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| JerryMagicKobe wrote: | | Hero Ball wrote: | | JerryMagicKobe wrote: |
| Quote: | | The comments from Nunes arrived the same day that the Trump administration projected that between 100,000 and 240,000 people in the U.S. could die of COVID-19 even with social distancing requirements in place. President Trump said during a White House briefing that Americans should prepare for a "very, very painful" two weeks. |
| Quote: | The Trump administration on Sunday extended its advisory urging people to avoid nonessential travel and gatherings of more than 10 people through the end of April.
Nunes has previously downplayed the severity of the outbreak. In mid-March, he said that people needed to "stop panicking," saying that it was “a great time” for those who are healthy to "just go out." |
So children should return to school during the peak of the crisis?
What is your point in posting this? Do you agree with Nunes? |
Do you?
That's his view and it's out there.
I think it's worthy of discussion.
Unless of course it's another non-issue. |
I think it is dangerously ignorant politically motivated pandering.
You said it is worthy of discussion. Love to hear your thoughts. |
I think the parents decide for their children...if they are minors.
All my kids are legal age and if the schools open up...it's their biz. |
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ThePageDude
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Joined: 25 Jul 2002
Posts: 2622
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:52 am Post subject: |
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| Hero Ball wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | TooMuchMajicBuss wrote: | | I think Fauci is a bit cautious in terms of treatments, but when it comes to the pandemic I'd take his word over 'expertise' of Devin Nunes any day. |
nunes and the florida governor belong together |
in Sweden?
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We shall see how Sweden plays out. They are not testing. When that has happened elsewhere (e.g. UK, and here in our own backyard) they've lived to regret it: UK reversed its policies March 21 or thereabouts; similarly our proven cases blew up when our testing ramped up.
This in and of itself says nothing about when to lift the restrictions, that's a different topic that involves many other factors both medical and economic. What is a MUST is to have reliable data so as to make informed decisions, which I don't see Sweden doing yet. Fortunately the White House now has access to good data and competent professionals who do this for a living so hopefully we will be able to walk this tight-rope as well as we possibly can. |
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TooMuchMajicBuss
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Joined: 17 Sep 2008
Posts: 21099
Location: In a white room, with black curtains near the station
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:57 am Post subject: |
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| Hero Ball wrote: |
I think the parents decide for their children...if they are minors.
All my kids are legal age and if the schools open up...it's their biz. |
Hero Ball I strongly disagree. As a parent and as someone who lives in a community with families with school aged children, I have to say this.
If you send your kid to school under the premise of 'parent's choice' you're pretty much volunteering your whole community to be a petri dish for this virus.
Hero Ball - you do have a way of pulling up the most oblivious, obtuse and ill-informed sources I've seen on this thread, and repeatedly plastering them, while purporting not to support the 'hoax' line of thinking.
But a comment supporting opening up schools and characterizing it as 'parent's choice' pretty much confirms you don't take this pandemic, nor the warnings coming out from the CDC, WHO, Fauci, or physicians actually in NYC hospitals seriously.
Last edited by TooMuchMajicBuss on Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:59 am; edited 2 times in total |
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Hero Ball
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Joined: 26 May 2015
Posts: 4403
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:58 am Post subject: |
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| ThePageDude wrote: | | Hero Ball wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | TooMuchMajicBuss wrote: | | I think Fauci is a bit cautious in terms of treatments, but when it comes to the pandemic I'd take his word over 'expertise' of Devin Nunes any day. |
nunes and the florida governor belong together |
in Sweden?
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We shall see how Sweden plays out. They are not testing. When that has happened elsewhere (e.g. UK, and here in our own backyard) they've lived to regret it: UK reversed its policies March 21 or thereabouts; similarly our proven cases blew up when our testing ramped up.
This in and of itself says nothing about when to lift the restrictions, that's a different topic that involves many other factors both medical and economic. What is a MUST is to have reliable data so as to make informed decisions, which I don't see Sweden doing yet. Fortunately the White House now has access to good data and competent professionals who do this for a living so hopefully we will be able to walk this tight-rope as well as we possibly can. |
I admire the Swedes...they're cool about their decision.
I hope God bless them and their children. |
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Hero Ball
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:02 am Post subject: |
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| TooMuchMajicBuss wrote: | | Hero Ball wrote: |
I think the parents decide for their children...if they are minors.
All my kids are legal age and if the schools open up...it's their biz. |
Hero Ball I strongly disagree. As a parent and as someone who lives in a community with families with school aged children, I have to say this.
If you send your kid to school under the premise of 'parent's choice' you're pretty much volunteering your whole community to be a petri dish for this virus.
Hero Ball - you do have a way of pulling up the most oblivious, obtuse and ill-informed sources I've seen on this thread, and repeatedly plastering them, while purporting not to support the 'hoax' line of thinking.
But a comment supporting opening up schools and characterizing it as 'parent's choice' pretty much confirms you don't take this pandemic, nor the warnings coming out from the CDC, WHO, Fauci, or physicians actually in NYC hospitals seriously. |
Who said I want to open schools?
I hate schools and regard homework as evil.
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TooMuchMajicBuss
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Joined: 17 Sep 2008
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:03 am Post subject: |
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| Hero Ball wrote: |
I admire the Swedes...they're cool about their decision.
I hope God bless them and their children. |
I admire American families who have sacrificed to stop the spread of this virus. I hope God blesses American parents and their children. And grants everyone the brains and character to care about others and not spread this by being careless and nonchalant about it. |
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Hero Ball
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Joined: 26 May 2015
Posts: 4403
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:04 am Post subject: |
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| TooMuchMajicBuss wrote: | | Hero Ball wrote: |
I admire the Swedes...they're cool about their decision.
I hope God bless them and their children. |
I admire American families who have sacrificed to stop the spread of this virus. I hope God blesses American parents and their children. And grants everyone the brains and character to care about others and not spread this by being careless and nonchalant about it. |
God bless us all. |
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TooMuchMajicBuss
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Joined: 17 Sep 2008
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Location: In a white room, with black curtains near the station
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:12 am Post subject: |
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| Hero Ball wrote: | | TooMuchMajicBuss wrote: | | Hero Ball wrote: |
I think the parents decide for their children...if they are minors.
All my kids are legal age and if the schools open up...it's their biz. |
Hero Ball I strongly disagree. As a parent and as someone who lives in a community with families with school aged children, I have to say this.
If you send your kid to school under the premise of 'parent's choice' you're pretty much volunteering your whole community to be a petri dish for this virus.
Hero Ball - you do have a way of pulling up the most oblivious, obtuse and ill-informed sources I've seen on this thread, and repeatedly plastering them, while purporting not to support the 'hoax' line of thinking.
But a comment supporting opening up schools and characterizing it as 'parent's choice' pretty much confirms you don't take this pandemic, nor the warnings coming out from the CDC, WHO, Fauci, or physicians actually in NYC hospitals seriously. |
Who said I want to open schools?
I hate schools and regard homework as evil.
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You did. See bolded. You stated it in the context of reopening schools, after quoting Nunes. WTF. I have work to do, bye. |
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Hero Ball
Star Player
Joined: 26 May 2015
Posts: 4403
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:16 am Post subject: |
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| TooMuchMajicBuss wrote: | | Hero Ball wrote: | | TooMuchMajicBuss wrote: | | Hero Ball wrote: |
I think the parents decide for their children...if they are minors.
All my kids are legal age and if the schools open up...it's their biz. |
Hero Ball I strongly disagree. As a parent and as someone who lives in a community with families with school aged children, I have to say this.
If you send your kid to school under the premise of 'parent's choice' you're pretty much volunteering your whole community to be a petri dish for this virus.
Hero Ball - you do have a way of pulling up the most oblivious, obtuse and ill-informed sources I've seen on this thread, and repeatedly plastering them, while purporting not to support the 'hoax' line of thinking.
But a comment supporting opening up schools and characterizing it as 'parent's choice' pretty much confirms you don't take this pandemic, nor the warnings coming out from the CDC, WHO, Fauci, or physicians actually in NYC hospitals seriously. |
Who said I want to open schools?
I hate schools and regard homework as evil.
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You did. See bolded. You stated it in the context of reopening schools, after quoting Nunes. WTF. I have work to do, bye. |
Ah.
I meant if schools open up it's the decision of the parents to send their children or not.
Crystal? |
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cal1piggy
Star Player
Joined: 19 Jul 2017
Posts: 2584
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:25 am Post subject: |
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| TooMuchMajicBuss wrote: | | Hero Ball wrote: |
I think the parents decide for their children...if they are minors.
All my kids are legal age and if the schools open up...it's their biz. |
Hero Ball I strongly disagree. As a parent and as someone who lives in a community with families with school aged children, I have to say this.
If you send your kid to school under the premise of 'parent's choice' you're pretty much volunteering your whole community to be a petri dish for this virus.
Hero Ball - you do have a way of pulling up the most oblivious, obtuse and ill-informed sources I've seen on this thread, and repeatedly plastering them, while purporting not to support the 'hoax' line of thinking.
But a comment supporting opening up schools and characterizing it as 'parent's choice' pretty much confirms you don't take this pandemic, nor the warnings coming out from the CDC, WHO, Fauci, or physicians actually in NYC hospitals seriously. |
i am you can recognize when someone is trying to probe the boundaries and taking a step back when needed to avoid too much criticism.
why someone would do that... |
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Hero Ball
Star Player
Joined: 26 May 2015
Posts: 4403
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:35 am Post subject: |
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| cal1piggy wrote: | | TooMuchMajicBuss wrote: | | Hero Ball wrote: |
I think the parents decide for their children...if they are minors.
All my kids are legal age and if the schools open up...it's their biz. |
Hero Ball I strongly disagree. As a parent and as someone who lives in a community with families with school aged children, I have to say this.
If you send your kid to school under the premise of 'parent's choice' you're pretty much volunteering your whole community to be a petri dish for this virus.
Hero Ball - you do have a way of pulling up the most oblivious, obtuse and ill-informed sources I've seen on this thread, and repeatedly plastering them, while purporting not to support the 'hoax' line of thinking.
But a comment supporting opening up schools and characterizing it as 'parent's choice' pretty much confirms you don't take this pandemic, nor the warnings coming out from the CDC, WHO, Fauci, or physicians actually in NYC hospitals seriously. |
i am you can recognize when someone is trying to probe the boundaries and taking a step back when needed to avoid too much criticism.
why someone would do that... |
like when? |
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RI Laker
Star Player
Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 7199
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:45 am Post subject: |
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Parents are sometimes as ignorant as their kids. Selfish people still can not come to grips that we are all in this together and our country's effectiveness in combatting this pandemic is related to EVERYONE doing their part. Some in society are so self absorbed that they can not see past their own peripheral. We hear and read stories about folks all over the country not doing the right thing (douche bags) which is mind boggling to say the least. I have seen it first hand when a student tested positive at the local high school here. Every student and their families were supposed the self quarantine for 14 days. I have seen many of these people out and about like they are on vacation. People need to smarten up because we can't call a mulligan or do a redo with this. If nothing else, you would think people would feel guilty about not doing the right thing knowing that our first responders are risking their lives for the safety and welfare of everyone (God Bless them all!!!!). I can rant and rave about this, but I will end it there. Be safe.
Last edited by RI Laker on Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:49 am; edited 1 time in total |
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ThePageDude
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Joined: 25 Jul 2002
Posts: 2622
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:49 am Post subject: |
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| Hero Ball wrote: | | ThePageDude wrote: | | Hero Ball wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | TooMuchMajicBuss wrote: | | I think Fauci is a bit cautious in terms of treatments, but when it comes to the pandemic I'd take his word over 'expertise' of Devin Nunes any day. |
nunes and the florida governor belong together |
in Sweden?
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We shall see how Sweden plays out. They are not testing. When that has happened elsewhere (e.g. UK, and here in our own backyard) they've lived to regret it: UK reversed its policies March 21 or thereabouts; similarly our proven cases blew up when our testing ramped up.
This in and of itself says nothing about when to lift the restrictions, that's a different topic that involves many other factors both medical and economic. What is a MUST is to have reliable data so as to make informed decisions, which I don't see Sweden doing yet. Fortunately the White House now has access to good data and competent professionals who do this for a living so hopefully we will be able to walk this tight-rope as well as we possibly can. |
I admire the Swedes...they're cool about their decision.
I hope God bless them and their children. |
Did you admire Boris Johnson/UK too for his coolness before he reversed course? Just curious.
On the second part, yes agreed, god bless them and their children. |
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Hero Ball
Star Player
Joined: 26 May 2015
Posts: 4403
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:54 am Post subject: |
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| ThePageDude wrote: | | Hero Ball wrote: | | ThePageDude wrote: | | Hero Ball wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | TooMuchMajicBuss wrote: | | I think Fauci is a bit cautious in terms of treatments, but when it comes to the pandemic I'd take his word over 'expertise' of Devin Nunes any day. |
nunes and the florida governor belong together |
in Sweden?
|
We shall see how Sweden plays out. They are not testing. When that has happened elsewhere (e.g. UK, and here in our own backyard) they've lived to regret it: UK reversed its policies March 21 or thereabouts; similarly our proven cases blew up when our testing ramped up.
This in and of itself says nothing about when to lift the restrictions, that's a different topic that involves many other factors both medical and economic. What is a MUST is to have reliable data so as to make informed decisions, which I don't see Sweden doing yet. Fortunately the White House now has access to good data and competent professionals who do this for a living so hopefully we will be able to walk this tight-rope as well as we possibly can. |
I admire the Swedes...they're cool about their decision.
I hope God bless them and their children. |
Did you admire Boris Johnson/UK too for his coolness before he reversed course? Just curious.
On the second part, yes agreed, god bless them and their children. |
I admire all people who has the balls to decide for themselves. |
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JerryMagicKobe
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Joined: 28 Jul 2005
Posts: 15100
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:07 am Post subject: |
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| Hero Ball wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | TooMuchMajicBuss wrote: | | Hero Ball wrote: |
I think the parents decide for their children...if they are minors.
All my kids are legal age and if the schools open up...it's their biz. |
Hero Ball I strongly disagree. As a parent and as someone who lives in a community with families with school aged children, I have to say this.
If you send your kid to school under the premise of 'parent's choice' you're pretty much volunteering your whole community to be a petri dish for this virus.
Hero Ball - you do have a way of pulling up the most oblivious, obtuse and ill-informed sources I've seen on this thread, and repeatedly plastering them, while purporting not to support the 'hoax' line of thinking.
But a comment supporting opening up schools and characterizing it as 'parent's choice' pretty much confirms you don't take this pandemic, nor the warnings coming out from the CDC, WHO, Fauci, or physicians actually in NYC hospitals seriously. |
i am you can recognize when someone is trying to probe the boundaries and taking a step back when needed to avoid too much criticism.
why someone would do that... |
like when? |
Like your last hundred or so posts.
Your willful ignorance is dangerous and inappropriate to share here. |
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Aeneas Hunter
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Joined: 12 Jul 2005
Posts: 31763
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:25 am Post subject: |
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| ThePageDude wrote: | | Did you admire Boris Johnson/UK too for his coolness before he reversed course? Just curious. |
I'm not convinced that the shutdowns were a good decision. A lot of the arguments in favor of the shutdowns (1) present a false choice between shutdowns and doing nothing at all, (2) are based on statistical models that assume a level of lockdown that does not exist in the real world, and (3) overlook the reality that the shutdowns are so sieve-like that they not be more effective than the social distancing rules that they replaced. I think the shutdowns are more about addressing fear and creating the appearance of action for politicians. The fact that gun shops are deemed essential businesses in many places is Exhibit A in the case for the shutdowns being window dressing. Ditto for the churches and whatever else gets exempted in a lot of places. From what I can see, people don't get serious about a shutdown until people are dying in their neighborhood.
I think we may look back on this and see that we are incurring a tremendous economic penalty for relatively little gain in the fight against the virus. The shutdowns tend to be halfway measures that create an appearance of action without the substance. But they have enough of an effect on the workforce that we still get the economic consequences. Sometimes a compromise solution is no solution at all.
But I've accepted that this is the way we are going to go. As I've said before, at this point it would be hard to persuade a lot of people to go back to work. This is where we are right now. Hopefully, we'll all still be here to argue about the effectiveness issues a couple years from now.
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skin
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cal1piggy
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Joined: 19 Jul 2017
Posts: 2584
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:49 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | ThePageDude wrote: | | Did you admire Boris Johnson/UK too for his coolness before he reversed course? Just curious. |
I'm not convinced that the shutdowns were a good decision. A lot of the arguments in favor of the shutdowns (1) present a false choice between shutdowns and doing nothing at all, (2) are based on statistical models that assume a level of lockdown that does not exist in the real world, and (3) overlook the reality that the shutdowns are so sieve-like that they not be more effective than the social distancing rules that they replaced. I think the shutdowns are more about addressing fear and creating the appearance of action for politicians. The fact that gun shops are deemed essential businesses in many places is Exhibit A in the case for the shutdowns being window dressing. Ditto for the churches and whatever else gets exempted in a lot of places. From what I can see, people don't get serious about a shutdown until people are dying in their neighborhood.
I think we may look back on this and see that we are incurring a tremendous economic penalty for relatively little gain in the fight against the virus. The shutdowns tend to be halfway measures that create an appearance of action without the substance. But they have enough of an effect on the workforce that we still get the economic consequences. Sometimes a compromise solution is no solution at all.
But I've accepted that this is the way we are going to go. As I've said before, at this point it would be hard to persuade a lot of people to go back to work. This is where we are right now. Hopefully, we'll all still be here to argue about the effectiveness issues a couple years from now. |
according to fauci and birx, it is lockdown vs 1-2 million dead.
costs for lockdown:
3 trillion
100-200k dead
wall street down 9000 points
the population is very vulnerable to recurrence as only ~10-20 million infected (1% death rate assumption)
costs for no lockdown:
1-2 million dead
wall street effect from hospitals completely overrun and 10x the deaths
economy effect from hospitals completely overrun and 10x the death
the population is much less vulnerable to recurrence because it has achieved or halfway to achieve herd immunity with 100 million to 200 million infected (1% death rate assumption) |
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Mamba81
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Joined: 19 Nov 2019
Posts: 2027
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:57 am Post subject: |
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Idk how they can shutdown the country for this whole month man. This is actually getting pretty scary to me. Seems like slowly but surely we're getting stripped of all our rights. And what's next? What happens at the end of April? Another 2 weeks? Another month? And then what happens when we finally reach our final ending date? Everyone goes back to work and then the thing spread 3x as worse?
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ThePageDude
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Joined: 25 Jul 2002
Posts: 2622
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:20 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | ThePageDude wrote: | | Did you admire Boris Johnson/UK too for his coolness before he reversed course? Just curious. |
I'm not convinced that the shutdowns were a good decision. A lot of the arguments in favor of the shutdowns (1) present a false choice between shutdowns and doing nothing at all, (2) are based on statistical models that assume a level of lockdown that does not exist in the real world, and (3) overlook the reality that the shutdowns are so sieve-like that they not be more effective than the social distancing rules that they replaced. I think the shutdowns are more about addressing fear and creating the appearance of action for politicians. The fact that gun shops are deemed essential businesses in many places is Exhibit A in the case for the shutdowns being window dressing. Ditto for the churches and whatever else gets exempted in a lot of places. From what I can see, people don't get serious about a shutdown until people are dying in their neighborhood.
I think we may look back on this and see that we are incurring a tremendous economic penalty for relatively little gain in the fight against the virus. The shutdowns tend to be halfway measures that create an appearance of action without the substance. But they have enough of an effect on the workforce that we still get the economic consequences. Sometimes a compromise solution is no solution at all.
But I've accepted that this is the way we are going to go. As I've said before, at this point it would be hard to persuade a lot of people to go back to work. This is where we are right now. Hopefully, we'll all still be here to argue about the effectiveness issues a couple years from now. |
OK, I can respect that position, the good thing is that both experiments (and many variations in between) are running in front of our eyes: Sweden vs Italy vs Spain vs Florida vs New York etc.
My tongue-in-cheek comment above was directed towards my point of emphasis - something I feel very strongly about - the more testing there is (within the bounds of affordability and reason), the more data there is, the more informed we will be. I don't admire regimes/governments/leaders that denigrate information/learning/data/awareness. Choosing not to measure/test is not gutsy, its hiding one's head under the sand, like the proverbial ostrich. |
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cal1piggy
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Joined: 19 Jul 2017
Posts: 2584
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:53 am Post subject: |
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yes they got caught with their pants down without medical supplies. |
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Aeneas Hunter
Retired Number
Joined: 12 Jul 2005
Posts: 31763
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:10 pm Post subject: |
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| cal1piggy wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | ThePageDude wrote: | | Did you admire Boris Johnson/UK too for his coolness before he reversed course? Just curious. |
I'm not convinced that the shutdowns were a good decision. A lot of the arguments in favor of the shutdowns (1) present a false choice between shutdowns and doing nothing at all, (2) are based on statistical models that assume a level of lockdown that does not exist in the real world, and (3) overlook the reality that the shutdowns are so sieve-like that they not be more effective than the social distancing rules that they replaced. I think the shutdowns are more about addressing fear and creating the appearance of action for politicians. The fact that gun shops are deemed essential businesses in many places is Exhibit A in the case for the shutdowns being window dressing. Ditto for the churches and whatever else gets exempted in a lot of places. From what I can see, people don't get serious about a shutdown until people are dying in their neighborhood.
I think we may look back on this and see that we are incurring a tremendous economic penalty for relatively little gain in the fight against the virus. The shutdowns tend to be halfway measures that create an appearance of action without the substance. But they have enough of an effect on the workforce that we still get the economic consequences. Sometimes a compromise solution is no solution at all.
But I've accepted that this is the way we are going to go. As I've said before, at this point it would be hard to persuade a lot of people to go back to work. This is where we are right now. Hopefully, we'll all still be here to argue about the effectiveness issues a couple years from now. |
according to fauci and birx, it is lockdown vs 1-2 million dead.
costs for lockdown:
3 trillion
100-200k dead
wall street down 9000 points
the population is very vulnerable to recurrence as only ~10-20 million infected (1% death rate assumption)
costs for no lockdown:
1-2 million dead
wall street effect from hospitals completely overrun and 10x the deaths
economy effect from hospitals completely overrun and 10x the death
the population is much less vulnerable to recurrence because it has achieved or halfway to achieve herd immunity with 100 million to 200 million infected (1% death rate assumption) |
Then we're about to get 1-2 million dead, because we sure as hell do not have a lockdown. This is just one of the many flaws in these kinds of "scary numbers." But people just keep repeating scary numbers without much analysis. I expect that the scary numbers that you are citing are subject to all three of the errors listed in my original post.
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Aeneas Hunter
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Joined: 12 Jul 2005
Posts: 31763
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:13 pm Post subject: |
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| ThePageDude wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | ThePageDude wrote: | | Did you admire Boris Johnson/UK too for his coolness before he reversed course? Just curious. |
I'm not convinced that the shutdowns were a good decision. A lot of the arguments in favor of the shutdowns (1) present a false choice between shutdowns and doing nothing at all, (2) are based on statistical models that assume a level of lockdown that does not exist in the real world, and (3) overlook the reality that the shutdowns are so sieve-like that they not be more effective than the social distancing rules that they replaced. I think the shutdowns are more about addressing fear and creating the appearance of action for politicians. The fact that gun shops are deemed essential businesses in many places is Exhibit A in the case for the shutdowns being window dressing. Ditto for the churches and whatever else gets exempted in a lot of places. From what I can see, people don't get serious about a shutdown until people are dying in their neighborhood.
I think we may look back on this and see that we are incurring a tremendous economic penalty for relatively little gain in the fight against the virus. The shutdowns tend to be halfway measures that create an appearance of action without the substance. But they have enough of an effect on the workforce that we still get the economic consequences. Sometimes a compromise solution is no solution at all.
But I've accepted that this is the way we are going to go. As I've said before, at this point it would be hard to persuade a lot of people to go back to work. This is where we are right now. Hopefully, we'll all still be here to argue about the effectiveness issues a couple years from now. |
OK, I can respect that position, the good thing is that both experiments (and many variations in between) are running in front of our eyes: Sweden vs Italy vs Spain vs Florida vs New York etc.
My tongue-in-cheek comment above was directed towards my point of emphasis - something I feel very strongly about - the more testing there is (within the bounds of affordability and reason), the more data there is, the more informed we will be. I don't admire regimes/governments/leaders that denigrate information/learning/data/awareness. Choosing not to measure/test is not gutsy, its hiding one's head under the sand, like the proverbial ostrich. |
Oh, I agree with all of that. As you say, we're going to be getting plenty of data from the different responses around the world. There's a whole generation of academics who are going to be filling the journals with this stuff.
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kikanga
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| Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | ThePageDude wrote: | | Did you admire Boris Johnson/UK too for his coolness before he reversed course? Just curious. |
I'm not convinced that the shutdowns were a good decision. A lot of the arguments in favor of the shutdowns (1) present a false choice between shutdowns and doing nothing at all, (2) are based on statistical models that assume a level of lockdown that does not exist in the real world, and (3) overlook the reality that the shutdowns are so sieve-like that they not be more effective than the social distancing rules that they replaced. I think the shutdowns are more about addressing fear and creating the appearance of action for politicians. The fact that gun shops are deemed essential businesses in many places is Exhibit A in the case for the shutdowns being window dressing. Ditto for the churches and whatever else gets exempted in a lot of places. From what I can see, people don't get serious about a shutdown until people are dying in their neighborhood.
I think we may look back on this and see that we are incurring a tremendous economic penalty for relatively little gain in the fight against the virus. The shutdowns tend to be halfway measures that create an appearance of action without the substance. But they have enough of an effect on the workforce that we still get the economic consequences. Sometimes a compromise solution is no solution at all.
But I've accepted that this is the way we are going to go. As I've said before, at this point it would be hard to persuade a lot of people to go back to work. This is where we are right now. Hopefully, we'll all still be here to argue about the effectiveness issues a couple years from now. |
according to fauci and birx, it is lockdown vs 1-2 million dead.
costs for lockdown:
3 trillion
100-200k dead
wall street down 9000 points
the population is very vulnerable to recurrence as only ~10-20 million infected (1% death rate assumption)
costs for no lockdown:
1-2 million dead
wall street effect from hospitals completely overrun and 10x the deaths
economy effect from hospitals completely overrun and 10x the death
the population is much less vulnerable to recurrence because it has achieved or halfway to achieve herd immunity with 100 million to 200 million infected (1% death rate assumption) |
Then we're about to get 1-2 million dead, because we sure as hell do not have a lockdown. This is just one of the many flaws in these kinds of "scary numbers." But people just keep repeating scary numbers without much analysis. I expect that the scary numbers that you are citing are subject to all three of the errors listed in my original post. |
I think it's safe to say even if it isn't a 100% lockdown. The suppression we've seen thus far has diminished the spread and limited deaths.
I'm open to the idea there may be a better approach than what we've taken. The problem is, whenever I ask someone who is critical of our current approach what the better alternative is. I'm only met with silence and I dunno's. So it's pretty easy to side with the consensus medical professionals recommend.
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Iron Mamba
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