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Steve007
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 Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:37 am Post subject: |
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| strong9 wrote: | | Steve007 wrote: | The last time the Dodgers were tied 2-2 in the World Series and won game 5 (and eventually the series):
LINK
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You mean last century? For all the greatness of Friedman, his BPs have been consistently unreliable in clutch moments. |
Not last century anymore. For all the talk about the 1988 team, the 1981 team gets overlooked IMO. That team was as clutch as they come. They were 5-0 in elimination games and 4-0 in the World Series after being down 2-0. And they finished off the hated Yankees. |
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Steve007
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:40 am Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | strong9 wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Quote: | World Series 2020: Why the second start of a series is Clayton Kershaw's real postseason problem
Sunday night's start will be a big test for Kershaw for another key reason: It's the first time this postseason he'll make a second start in a series. I had a theory that most of Kershaw's postseason struggles have come the second time he faced a team in a series. Before putting theory to paper, I checked the numbers. I went back to 2013, the first postseason Kershaw pitched in after he had become the best pitcher in the game.
First game in a series: 102⅔ IP, 78 H, 44 R, 42 ER, 23 BB, 118 SO, 14 HR, 3.15 ERA
Subsequent appearances: 65⅓ IP, 55 H, 37 R, 34 ER, 16 BB, 72 SO, 11 HR, 5.44 ERA
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30184265/world-series-2020-why-second-start-series-clayton-kershaw-real-postseason-problem
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Now I feel much better...lol |
Hopefully, he bucks the trend tonight! |
Surprised you would post that after your complaints about my posts. So we’re allowed to only use some of his stats now to prove a point? Are you saying his stats in the first game don’t count? |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:12 am Post subject: |
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| Steve007 wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | strong9 wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Quote: | World Series 2020: Why the second start of a series is Clayton Kershaw's real postseason problem
Sunday night's start will be a big test for Kershaw for another key reason: It's the first time this postseason he'll make a second start in a series. I had a theory that most of Kershaw's postseason struggles have come the second time he faced a team in a series. Before putting theory to paper, I checked the numbers. I went back to 2013, the first postseason Kershaw pitched in after he had become the best pitcher in the game.
First game in a series: 102⅔ IP, 78 H, 44 R, 42 ER, 23 BB, 118 SO, 14 HR, 3.15 ERA
Subsequent appearances: 65⅓ IP, 55 H, 37 R, 34 ER, 16 BB, 72 SO, 11 HR, 5.44 ERA
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30184265/world-series-2020-why-second-start-series-clayton-kershaw-real-postseason-problem
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Now I feel much better...lol |
Hopefully, he bucks the trend tonight! |
Surprised you would post that after your complaints about my posts. So we’re allowed to only use some of his stats now to prove a point? Are you saying his stats in the first game don’t count? |
I posted an article.
None of it is my opinion. Whether you agree or disagree with the article is up to you.
If you have a problem with me posting the article, I don’t know what to say?
Maybe you had no use for the article, that’s fine. Maybe other people did? Who knows. I’m not sure what the issue is but I read an article and thought I’d share the link for others to read.
| Quote: | Are you saying his stats in the first game don’t count?
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You should direct this question at the writer of the article. Contact ESPN, maybe they can give you his email?
David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
But honestly at this point, if you want to continue having a discussion about Kershaw and his stats and the years, etc.. just PM me.
I really don’t think anyone else wants to read this back and forth anymore. |
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Steve007
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Joined: 21 Jul 2006
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:04 am Post subject: |
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^But you didn’t have any issues clogging up the other Dodger thread with another poster and you got called out on it.
| Quote: | I posted an article.
None of it is my opinion. Whether you agree or disagree with the article is up to you. |
But you wouldn’t post an article that you thought was garbage. So you must have thought there was some substance to it. Nobody takes the time to link to articles they think have no value. And the article does the same thing I did. It only uses some of his stats. Notice there is no implication that other Kershaw stats don’t count.
Btw, on ESPN I saw a stat showing the lowest eras in a 9 game span in the playoffs. They had Hershiser on the list from 1988 to 1995. And again, they were not saying his postseason starts in other years, like in 1985 don’t count.
| Quote: | | You should direct this question at the writer of the article. Contact ESPN, maybe they can give you his email? |
But it’s your question. So shouldn’t you be doing this?
I guess you’re less eager to continue because when you were disagreeing with me before, you seemed to think Kershaw was incapable of succeeding in the playoffs. If you changed your mind because he was 4-1 and won a ring, that’s great! |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:20 am Post subject: |
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| Steve007 wrote: | ^But you didn’t have any issues clogging up the other Dodger thread with another poster and you got called out on it.
| Quote: | I posted an article.
None of it is my opinion. Whether you agree or disagree with the article is up to you. |
But you wouldn’t post an article that you thought was garbage. So you must have thought there was some substance to it. Nobody takes the time to link to articles they think have no value. And the article does the same thing I did. It only uses some of his stats. Notice there is no implication that other Kershaw stats don’t count.
Btw, on ESPN I saw a stat showing the lowest eras in a 9 game span in the playoffs. They had Hershiser on the list from 1988 to 1995. And again, they were not saying his postseason starts in other years, like in 1985 don’t count.
| Quote: | | You should direct this question at the writer of the article. Contact ESPN, maybe they can give you his email? |
But it’s your question. So shouldn’t you be doing this?
I guess you’re less eager to continue because when you were disagreeing with me before, you seemed to think Kershaw was incapable of succeeding in the playoffs. If you changed your mind because he was 4-1 and won a ring, that’s great! |
Sounds like you have an issue with me posting the article. I don’t know what to tell you Steve.
If you want, I can go back and delete the link? Or I can promise never to post articles on here again unless I’m willing to back the article 100%?
Tell me what would make you happy Steve.
This is a Dodger thread. I saw a Kershaw article on ESPN. I thought maybe other people might want to read the article as well and form their own opinions on it.
Tell me what did I do wrong Steve? Was I not supposed to post the article? What is the issue?
I post tons of Dodger articles on here. If it’s Dodger related, I post it for others to read.
| Quote: | | Quote: | | You should direct this question at the writer of the article. Contact ESPN, maybe they can give you his email? |
But it’s your question. So shouldn’t you be doing this?
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Sure. If it makes you happy, I can email him and ask him for you. Tell me exactly what question you want me to ask him and I’ll do that.
So I got this correctly, you want me to ask if if the first starts count? And also, why did he single out years? Anything else? |
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Steve007
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:34 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Tell me what did I do wrong Steve? Was I not supposed to post the article? What is the issue? |
The article is fine. The issue is the obvious double standard. I write some positive stuff about Kershaw. You start making up stuff saying I was trying to claim 2018 and 2019 didn’t count. I guess some of the things I wrote didn’t fit with your narrative about him being a choker.
Again, if you changed your mind because he was 4-1 and won a ring, that’s great! One of the great things about this situation is he won a ring, had a great postseason and even his biggest haters will NEVER be able to take that away from him.  |
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Steve007
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:36 am Post subject: |
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| We should be happy when players on the Dodgers prove us wrong, step up their game and exceed our expectations. We shouldn’t be bitter about it. I wish Jansen would prove me wrong. Seager greatly exceeded my expectations and it was a lot of fun to watch. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:40 am Post subject: |
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| Steve007 wrote: | | Quote: | | Tell me what did I do wrong Steve? Was I not supposed to post the article? What is the issue? |
The article is fine. The issue is the obvious double standard. I write some positive stuff about Kershaw. You start making up stuff saying I was trying to claim 2018 and 2019 didn’t count. I guess some of the things I wrote didn’t fit with your narrative about him being a choker.
Again, if you changed your mind because he was 4-1 and won a ring, that’s great! One of the great things about this situation is he won a ring, had a great postseason and even his biggest haters will NEVER be able to take that away from him. |
If the article is fine, then you just have a problem with me being the one to post the article?
Maybe next time if I want to post the article, I can PM another poster and tell him to post it?
Basically, you didn’t want me to be the one to post the article? That’s the whole issue today?
I’ll make you a deal. Before I post any more articles about Kershaw, I’ll PM you first and you tell me if it’s ok for me to post it. Once I get the ok from you, I’ll go ahead and post the article?
Is that a deal? Do you feel better now that I’ve involved you in the article posting decision making process?
| Quote: | You start making up stuff saying I was trying to claim 2018 and 2019 didn’t count.
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And I’ve given you tons of opportunities to clarify your stance. If I’m making it up, then correct me.
Does 2018 and 2019 count, yes or no?
If I’m making stuff up, go ahead and correct me Steve. |
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Steve007
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:51 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Do you feel better now that I’ve involved you in the article posting decision making process? |
Absolutely! All articles from you are approved as long as you don’t nitpick my posts with silly nonsense when I write something positive about Kershaw.
| Quote: | And I’ve given you tons of opportunities to clarify your stance. If I’m making it up, then correct me.
Does 2018 and 2019 count, yes or no? |
Why would you even need to ask this when it’s obvious I think the answer is yes? |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:59 am Post subject: |
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| Steve007 wrote: | | Absolutely! All articles from you are approved as long as you don’t nitpick my posts with silly nonsense when I write something positive about Kershaw. |
Deal!
I promise you from this day forward, whatever you write about Kershaw, I will never ever comment again!
I honestly didn’t think you’d be this bothered by it.
I sincerely hope we’ve resolved this issue this morning.
| Quote: | | Quote: | And I’ve given you tons of opportunities to clarify your stance. If I’m making it up, then correct me.
Does 2018 and 2019 count, yes or no? |
Why would you even need to ask this when it’s obvious I think the answer is yes? |
Starting...... NOW!! |
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Steve007
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:09 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | I sincerely hope we’ve resolved this issue this morning.
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Looks like we have.
And on a separate topic, it still feels fantastic to say that the last championship is in 2020 instead of 1988, and that’s going to brighten my mood whenever I think about it. |
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jonnybravo
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Steve007 wrote: | | Quote: | I sincerely hope we’ve resolved this issue this morning.
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Looks like we have.
And on a separate topic, it still feels fantastic to say that the last championship is in 2020 instead of 1988, and that’s going to brighten my mood whenever I think about it. |
Yeah it's bananas and it really makes me appreciate those die hard fans of those moribund franchises that are perpetually in the basement. Imagine never seeing your team win the chip in your lifetime. I went from a sixth grader to a middle aged man between 1988 and 2020.
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:36 am Post subject: |
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Good informative Dodgers video.
Tom Verducci explains how Mark Prior was responsible for Urias’ improvement late in the year (September). Says that Urias was just off balance all year from the full windup. After his 4 walk game to Houston, Prior suggested he only pitch from the stretch to get his shoulders pointed at home plate. Urias took off after this.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Tj5tDKvhwXg
—————-
MLB free agent predictions
| Quote: | 12. Liam Hendriks (RHP, Age 31)
The top reliever in an already flooded market that will take on even more water when guys get non-tendered next month.
Prediction: Dodgers, two years, $24 million
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| Quote: | 3. Trevor Bauer (RHP, Age 29)
One industry person who knows the eccentric Bauer said he’ll sign with “whoever has the most digits in their final offer.”
Prediction: Padres, six years, $150 million
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| Quote: | 13. Kolten Wong (2B, Age 30)
Since there’s no major league team in Hawaii, the Aloha State native will have to settle for California if he wants to get closer to home.
Prediction: Angels, three years, $30 million
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| Quote: | 29. Cole Hamels and Jon Lester (both LHP and 36)
Cheating here by asking these well-known veterans who struggled with injury and underperformance, respectively, to share a spot.
Predictions: Padres, one year, $5 million for Hamels and Cubs, one year, $8 million for Lester
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| Quote: | 30. Yoenis Cespedes (DH, Age 35)
Sure, who knows if he has anything left — he does plan on a comeback — but how could we not pay tribute to someone who has helped journalism so much?
Prediction: Athletics, minor league contract
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ChickenStu
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Location: Anaheim, CA
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| Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:05 pm Post subject: |
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^
MLB Trade Rumors is predicting that the Dodgers land Bauer for 4 years and $128MM. Other projections by the site:
Marcus Stroman to the Angels for 4 years and $68MM.
Hendriks to the Phillies for 3 years and $30MM.
Turner back to the Dodgers for 2 years and $24MM.
Marcus Semien to the Angels for 1 year and $14MM.
Joc Pederson to the Cardinals for 2 years and $18MM.
Trevor Rosenthal to the Angels for 2 years and $14MM.
Blake Treinen to Marlins for 2 years and $14MM. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:11 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | ^
MLB Trade Rumors is predicting that the Dodgers land Bauer for 4 years and $128MM. Other projections by the site:
Marcus Stroman to the Angels for 4 years and $68MM.
Hendriks to the Phillies for 3 years and $30MM.
Turner back to the Dodgers for 2 years and $24MM.
Marcus Semien to the Angels for 1 year and $14MM.
Joc Pederson to the Cardinals for 2 years and $18MM.
Trevor Rosenthal to the Angels for 2 years and $14MM.
Blake Treinen to Marlins for 2 years and $14MM. |
Bauer would be nice. If we land Bauer, that might be it for Kershaw after next year. |
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MookieBetts50
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Joined: 22 Jul 2020
Posts: 1943
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| Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:23 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | ^
MLB Trade Rumors is predicting that the Dodgers land Bauer for 4 years and $128MM. Other projections by the site:
Marcus Stroman to the Angels for 4 years and $68MM.
Hendriks to the Phillies for 3 years and $30MM.
Turner back to the Dodgers for 2 years and $24MM.
Marcus Semien to the Angels for 1 year and $14MM.
Joc Pederson to the Cardinals for 2 years and $18MM.
Trevor Rosenthal to the Angels for 2 years and $14MM.
Blake Treinen to Marlins for 2 years and $14MM. |
Bauer would be nice. If we land Bauer, that might be it for Kershaw after next year. |
Nice!!!
Buehler
Bauer 
Kershaw
Price
May
White (Long Relief/Spot Starter)
Santana (Long Relief/Spot Starter)
Kolarek (Lefty Specialist)
Jansen (Low Leverage, Mid-Relief)
Gonzalez (Mid-Relief)
Floro (Mid-Relief)
Baez (Mid-Relief)
Gonsolin (Set Up/Spot Starter)
Urias (Super Set Up - Hader role!) 
Graterol (Closer)
Last edited by MookieBetts50 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:39 pm; edited 4 times in total |
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jonnybravo
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| Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:31 pm Post subject: |
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Wow, the FO is pulling out all the stops if we get Bauer.
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:35 pm Post subject: |
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^
Gonzalez has starting experience in the minors, and last season he was also fantastic against righties. He allowed a miniscule .143/.211/.171 line vs. lefty batters (38 plate appearance), but against righties it was .205/.238/.231 in 42 PA's, which is also stellar. He struck out 12 and walked none against righties, also. (Was 11-2 vs. lefties.)
Another great find by our staff. Imagine going to sign Yasiel Puig (which they did), and coming away with Julio Urias and Victor Gonzalez as well! |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:38 pm Post subject: |
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I'd have mixed feelings about Bauer on a multi-year deal, because he has had more iffy seasons than great ones, and was bad as recently as 2019. Not sure we need to have a long-term deal on the books where it's a risk. Now, a short-term deal, heck yeah, why not?
As it relates to Kershaw, by the way, if he has another good year next season and assuming he wants to continue pitching, I think you'd likely see he and the club come to terms on another deal. Just seems like a lifetime Dodger, at this point. |
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jonnybravo
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| Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:52 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | I'd have mixed feelings about Bauer on a multi-year deal, because he has had more iffy seasons than great ones, and was bad as recently as 2019. Not sure we need to have a long-term deal on the books where it's a risk. Now, a short-term deal, heck yeah, why not?
As it relates to Kershaw, by the way, if he has another good year next season and assuming he wants to continue pitching, I think you'd likely see he and the club come to terms on another deal. Just seems like a lifetime Dodger, at this point. |
4 really that long though?
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:57 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="jonnybravo"] | ChickenStu wrote: | I'd have mixed feelings about Bauer on a multi-year deal, because he has had more iffy seasons than great ones, and was bad as recently as 2019. Not sure we need to have a long-term deal on the books where it's a risk. Now, a short-term deal, heck yeah, why not?
As it relates to Kershaw, by the way, if he has another good year next season and assuming he wants to continue pitching, I think you'd likely see he and the club come to terms on another deal. Just seems like a lifetime Dodger, at this point. |
4 really that long though?[/quote
I guess it depends on how you look at it. He clearly has top-end ability. He's also exhibited the ability to go off the rails quite a bit. For one year, I have no reservations. For four? I don't know. I wouldn't hate it, I'd just be a little nervous. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Yeah whatever Bauer says, it’s hard to see him take a 1 year deal. When’s the last elite free agent to take a 1 year deal (by choice, not by circumstance). |
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Steve007
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| Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:39 pm Post subject: |
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4 years and $128 million? The team let Ryu go and he signed in Toronto on a deal that is 4 years and $80 million. Is he really worth $48 million more than Ryu?
I thought the plan was to give the younger pitchers a shot in the rotation. This would be going away from that.
I’m not sure how I would feel about this signing tbh. |
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Steve007
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| Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:54 pm Post subject: |
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Also our team didn’t even want to give Ryu the $80 million.
| Quote: | | They were open to offering Ryu a four-year contract, but with a considerably lower average annual value than he received from the Blue Jays, according to a person familiar with the situation who requested anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak on the record. |
LINK
So what would the team have been willing to offer Ryu? $70 million? $60 million? And now Bauer could get $128 million which would be almost double the amount?
In any case, the point isn’t just to complain about losing Ryu. We won without him anyway and it’s possible that if Ryu stayed we lose in the playoffs. So this entire season/postseason was amazing.
The point is it would surprise me to see the team willing to pay so much more for Bauer, who has been incredible recently but it does look like a gamble to pick him up. |
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ChickenStu
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Location: Anaheim, CA
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| Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Steve007 wrote: | Also our team didn’t even want to give Ryu the $80 million.
| Quote: | | They were open to offering Ryu a four-year contract, but with a considerably lower average annual value than he received from the Blue Jays, according to a person familiar with the situation who requested anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak on the record. |
LINK
So what would the team have been willing to offer Ryu? $70 million? $60 million? And now Bauer could get $128 million which would be almost double the amount?
In any case, the point isn’t just to complain about losing Ryu. We won without him anyway and it’s possible that if Ryu stayed we lose in the playoffs. So this entire season/postseason was amazing.
The point is it would surprise me to see the team willing to pay so much more for Bauer, who has been incredible recently but it does look like a gamble to pick him up. |
Ryu turned 33 this year and has a history of shoulder issues. Bauer will be 30 in January, so if he signed a 4-year deal, he'd be the same age at the end of his deal that Ryu was at the beginning of his. The Dodgers saw Ryu as an injury risk and fragile, though of course he obviously had become a top-end starter for them. I think they would see Bauer as a guy who would be more likely to be a workhorse type.
That all said, I am with you that I am not sure giving him a big multi-year deal is the right way to go. As I mentioned, I'm not convinced that he would be great every year, like I feel about someone like Gerrit Cole, for example. For another, perhaps having that contract on the books would make it harder to keep Seager, or Bellinger down the road, or to do something else big. But if they really do plan to let Kershaw go after 2021, I guess it could make sense. Personally, I think Kershaw will re-up on a 2 or 3-year deal with a reduced AAV, though he'll still make big money. |
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