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strong9
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 Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:21 pm Post subject: |
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| How about you guys get a hit...a bunt single even. |
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strong9
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Thank you |
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strong9
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Dodger offense and Pandemic P...separated at birth. |
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Cutheon
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Joined: 10 Jul 2009
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:24 pm Post subject: |
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| ^that particular RAPTOR model is player based and essentially estimates a players performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. My guess is that it has no way of accounting for Lebron and so it just assumes he will be much worse than he currently is. It also likely dismisses the contributions of Green, Howard, and Rondo since players similar to them are usually done around this point in time/not getting much better. Basically ignores chemistry and the players current play. It's very, very silly |
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leor_77
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Joined: 23 Mar 2012
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Damn - leadoff single erased by a DP. |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:24 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | 0-2 pitch. I've been talking about that in here for years. 3-2 now. For a team so dependent on analytics, we're pretty f'ing stupid. But go ahead and keep telling me that the batting average on balls in play is terrible on 0-2. |
To be fair, you're only focusing on the instances that it goes bad. When they throw junk on 0-2, you never mention it.
I just saw Urias go 0-2 twice and he did exactly as you wished, he threw junk.
The thing is, sometimes they mean to throw junk and they don't execute well and it ends up over the plate. |
I've been talking about Dodger pitchers in general throwing way too many 0-2 strikes for years. Years. Yeah, of course you aren't ALWAYS going to throw strikes on 0-2. My point is that they throw not only strikes on 0-2 far too often, but, like, good pitches to hit, like, hittable strikes. Fastballs right down the middle. That should never, ever happen. And it happens because the Dodgers are heavily reliant on analytics and the analytics spit out that the batting average on balls in play are terrible on an 0-2 count. And what I've said is that, yes, that will show that because many teams don't have a philosophy of throwing strikes on 0-2. To me, if you are throwing a strike on 0-2, you render the count meaningless.
If you want to say that I'm arguing against analytics, fine. But analytics, while useful, need context. They don't tell the entire story. FiveThirtyEight had 5 teams ahead of the Lakers in their model as to which team would win the title. We were still behind both the Heat and Celtics during the WCF -- well behind them -- and before Game 1 of the Finals the Lakers were given a 26% chance to win the series. We blew them out in Game 1, of course, and now our odds have gone up to 45% lol. My point is that analytics aren't everything. You have to be able to use them but also have common sense. And under this current regime, there is no question that Dodger pitchers have a far greater propensity to throw hittable strikes on 0-2 counts. I simply don't like it and when it happens, I'm going to harp on it because it pisses me off.
Rant over. |
Yeah, but if it's about analytics, then are you saying Urias missed? Cuz he faced 0-2 counts twice and he threw junk.
You should be consistent though if you're going to criticize.
It's not fair to only pick and choose the instances where it doesn't work out.
Yes, I've heard you harp about it over the years (when it doesn't work out).
However, I've never heard you say anything about it when the pitcher does exactly what you want. Like tonight, you didn't say anything when Urias threw junk.
So, if analytics is the issue, then Urias was supposed to throw it over the plate but he missed badly? |
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strong9
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Joined: 22 Mar 2003
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Cutheon wrote: | | ^that particular RAPTOR model is player based and essentially estimates a players performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. My guess is that it has no way of accounting for Lebron and so it just assumes he will be much worse than he currently is. It also likely dismisses the contributions of Green, Howard, and Rondo since players similar to them are usually done around this point in time/not getting much better. Basically ignores chemistry and the players current play. It's very, very silly |
I so agree with this I don't even mind it is in the Dodgers' thread |
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angrypuppy
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Joined: 13 Apr 2001
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Topa looks twitchy nervous. Batters should screw with him so he doesn't establish a pitching rhythm. Ask the ump for time, and be selective. |
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leor_77
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Joined: 23 Mar 2012
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:28 pm Post subject: |
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| It really blows that the division winners (or maybe even just league winners) didn't get first round byes. |
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ChickenStu
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Joined: 25 Apr 2015
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:31 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | 0-2 pitch. I've been talking about that in here for years. 3-2 now. For a team so dependent on analytics, we're pretty f'ing stupid. But go ahead and keep telling me that the batting average on balls in play is terrible on 0-2. |
To be fair, you're only focusing on the instances that it goes bad. When they throw junk on 0-2, you never mention it.
I just saw Urias go 0-2 twice and he did exactly as you wished, he threw junk.
The thing is, sometimes they mean to throw junk and they don't execute well and it ends up over the plate. |
I've been talking about Dodger pitchers in general throwing way too many 0-2 strikes for years. Years. Yeah, of course you aren't ALWAYS going to throw strikes on 0-2. My point is that they throw not only strikes on 0-2 far too often, but, like, good pitches to hit, like, hittable strikes. Fastballs right down the middle. That should never, ever happen. And it happens because the Dodgers are heavily reliant on analytics and the analytics spit out that the batting average on balls in play are terrible on an 0-2 count. And what I've said is that, yes, that will show that because many teams don't have a philosophy of throwing strikes on 0-2. To me, if you are throwing a strike on 0-2, you render the count meaningless.
If you want to say that I'm arguing against analytics, fine. But analytics, while useful, need context. They don't tell the entire story. FiveThirtyEight had 5 teams ahead of the Lakers in their model as to which team would win the title. We were still behind both the Heat and Celtics during the WCF -- well behind them -- and before Game 1 of the Finals the Lakers were given a 26% chance to win the series. We blew them out in Game 1, of course, and now our odds have gone up to 45% lol. My point is that analytics aren't everything. You have to be able to use them but also have common sense. And under this current regime, there is no question that Dodger pitchers have a far greater propensity to throw hittable strikes on 0-2 counts. I simply don't like it and when it happens, I'm going to harp on it because it pisses me off.
Rant over. |
Yeah, but if it's about analytics, then are you saying Urias missed? Cuz he faced 0-2 counts twice and he threw junk.
You should be consistent though if you're going to criticize.
It's not fair to only pick and choose the instances where it doesn't work out.
Yes, I've heard you harp about it over the years (when it doesn't work out).
However, I've never heard you say anything about it when the pitcher does exactly what you want. Like tonight, you didn't say anything when Urias threw junk.
So, if analytics is the issue, then Urias was supposed to throw it over the plate but he missed badly? |
I don't believe pitchers should throw hittable strikes on 0-2. Ever. Literally, never. That's what I believe. So I'm not going to point it out when a pitcher does what I think they should do on 0-2. I'm going to point it out when it pisses me off lol. I won't comment on this any further because it gets me annoyed. Not you, the fact that our pitchers do it way too often. |
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oasisdude77
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Joined: 02 Oct 2007
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:32 pm Post subject: |
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| leor_77 wrote: | | It really blows that the division winners (or maybe even just league winners) didn't get first round byes. |
100%
I hated it as soon as they announced it back in July.
If this is the plan moving forward, you have to shorten the season and have the first round a best of 5.
Best of 3 is just not fair to the higher seeds who work so hard all year to get the best record.
Hell I feel the better team doesn't always win in a best of 5, let along a best of 7. |
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ChickenStu
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Joined: 25 Apr 2015
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Location: Anaheim, CA
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:32 pm Post subject: |
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| strong9 wrote: | | Cutheon wrote: | | ^that particular RAPTOR model is player based and essentially estimates a players performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. My guess is that it has no way of accounting for Lebron and so it just assumes he will be much worse than he currently is. It also likely dismisses the contributions of Green, Howard, and Rondo since players similar to them are usually done around this point in time/not getting much better. Basically ignores chemistry and the players current play. It's very, very silly |
I so agree with this I don't even mind it is in the Dodgers' thread |
Yes, their model, I believe, just looks at the fact that they have more higher-rated players then we do. As did other teams. But only 5 of them can play at the same time, and we have two superstars. I was more concerned with Denver than Miami, with all due respect to them. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:34 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | | I don't believe pitchers should throw hittable strikes on 0-2. Ever. Literally, never. That's what I believe. So I'm not going to point it out when a pitcher does what I think they should do on 0-2. I'm going to point it out when it pisses me off lol. I won't comment on this any further because it gets me annoyed. Not you, the fact that our pitchers do it way too often. |
Ok, but don't pitchers make mistakes though? You don't believe pitchers can make mistakes?
You criticize it assuming that it's always an intentional choice to throw it down the middle. But what about execution errors?
Buehler was missing his spots on all sorts of counts, not just 0-2. Smith was setting up high and the ball was ending up low sometimes. |
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Cutheon
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:37 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | | strong9 wrote: | | Cutheon wrote: | | ^that particular RAPTOR model is player based and essentially estimates a players performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. My guess is that it has no way of accounting for Lebron and so it just assumes he will be much worse than he currently is. It also likely dismisses the contributions of Green, Howard, and Rondo since players similar to them are usually done around this point in time/not getting much better. Basically ignores chemistry and the players current play. It's very, very silly |
I so agree with this I don't even mind it is in the Dodgers' thread |
Yes, their model, I believe, just looks at the fact that they have more higher-rated players then we do. As did other teams. But only 5 of them can play at the same time, and we have two superstars. I was more concerned with Denver than Miami, with all due respect to them. |
Yes. It also overvalues overperforming rookies (they are young, they will get better) and undervalues veterans (they are old, they will get worse). It ignores the present, which is a curious choice for a predictive model, lol. |
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Cutheon
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:39 pm Post subject: |
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| Julio looks nasty tonight. I'll be interested to see who Dave brings out for the 8th. My guess is Treinen, which has me nervous. |
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Cutheon
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Cutheon wrote: | | Julio looks nasty tonight. I'll be interested to see who Dave brings out for the 8th. My guess is Treinen, which has me nervous. |
Of course I jinxed him. (bleep)! |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Cutheon wrote: | | Cutheon wrote: | | Julio looks nasty tonight. I'll be interested to see who Dave brings out for the 8th. My guess is Treinen, which has me nervous. |
Of course I jinxed him. (bleep)! |
No you didn't!!! |
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angrypuppy
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:41 pm Post subject: |
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Good new: Dodgers with a one run lead.
Bad news: We're approaching Jansen time. |
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strong9
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Joined: 22 Mar 2003
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Location: so many places
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Cutheon wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | strong9 wrote: | | Cutheon wrote: | | ^that particular RAPTOR model is player based and essentially estimates a players performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. My guess is that it has no way of accounting for Lebron and so it just assumes he will be much worse than he currently is. It also likely dismisses the contributions of Green, Howard, and Rondo since players similar to them are usually done around this point in time/not getting much better. Basically ignores chemistry and the players current play. It's very, very silly |
I so agree with this I don't even mind it is in the Dodgers' thread |
Yes, their model, I believe, just looks at the fact that they have more higher-rated players then we do. As did other teams. But only 5 of them can play at the same time, and we have two superstars. I was more concerned with Denver than Miami, with all due respect to them. |
Yes. It also overvalues overperforming rookies (they are young, they will get better) and undervalues veterans (they are old, they will get worse). It ignores the present, which is a curious choice for a predictive model, lol. |
Not to hijack the thread bit exactly. It is like the statistical equivalent of a bunch of guys sitting around and saying I think Tyler Herro is the next Reggie Miller so I'm going to comp him like that.
Last edited by strong9 on Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:42 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:42 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | I don't believe pitchers should throw hittable strikes on 0-2. Ever. Literally, never. That's what I believe. So I'm not going to point it out when a pitcher does what I think they should do on 0-2. I'm going to point it out when it pisses me off lol. I won't comment on this any further because it gets me annoyed. Not you, the fact that our pitchers do it way too often. |
Ok, but don't pitchers make mistakes though? You don't believe pitchers can make mistakes?
You criticize it assuming that it's always an intentional choice to throw it down the middle. But what about execution errors?
Buehler was missing his spots on all sorts of counts, not just 0-2. Smith was setting up high and the ball was ending up low sometimes. |
Of course they make mistakes. I get it that some 0-2 mistakes will happen. However, we throw way too many strikes on those counts to assume that they are mistakes. I've been watching the Dodgers pretty closely for over 30 years. There has most definitely been a change in the frequency with which our pitchers throw strikes on 0-2 counts. This front office is heavily reliant on analytics. That is not a coincidence. It's just not something I like.
It's also what gets you to pinch hit for David Freese in the World Series for Yasmani Grandal, analytics. |
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leor_77
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:42 pm Post subject: |
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| Urias doing well, so far...But, I think we lose without insurance run(s). |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:42 pm Post subject: |
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| angrypuppy wrote: | Good new: Dodgers with a one run lead.
Bad news: We're approaching Jansen time. |
Prediction: Roberts doesn't bring in Jansen in the 9th |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:43 pm Post subject: |
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| angrypuppy wrote: | Good new: Dodgers with a one run lead.
Bad news: We're approaching Jansen time. |
We're going to go with Treinen in the 8th, almost certainly. Gonna follow the "formula" and hope it works. Would be nice to get an insurance run or two or five. |
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Cutheon
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:43 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Cutheon wrote: | | Cutheon wrote: | | Julio looks nasty tonight. I'll be interested to see who Dave brings out for the 8th. My guess is Treinen, which has me nervous. |
Of course I jinxed him. (bleep)! |
No you didn't!!! |
Hell yeah! Way to battle Julio. Great job tonight of getting that fastball in on right handers, really generated tons of weak contact |
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strong9
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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| angrypuppy wrote: | Good new: Dodgers with a one run lead.
Bad news: We're approaching Jansen time. |
Will be interesting to see what Doc does in such s high leverage situation. |
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