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LarryCoon
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Joined: 11 Aug 2002
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 Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:17 am Post subject: |
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Yeah....kind of completely ignores the point I made. Even if you exclude and ignore the people who get it but stay asymptomatic and are never tested, we still have a huge problem on our hands -- or are these two doctors not paying attention to what's happening in hospitals right now?
As I look right now, there are 116,000 tested, confirmed cases, and the rate of tested, confirmed cases is doubling every couple days.
Of the tested, confirmed cases that have resolved, about 60% are recoveries (3,200) and 40% are deaths (1,900). The remaining ones are active cases that haven't resolved yet. These numbers will adjust over time (because early in the process there hasn't been enough time for a sufficient number of cases to resolve, therefore it's a small sample size, and because early in the process it caught us by surprise, somehow).
So here's the important takeaways:
1. The incidence is at 116,000 right now, and doubling every few days.
2. Of the cases that are old enough to have resolved, 40% are dying.
3. And this is all before our healthcare system is completely overwhelmed.
As I said in my previous post, their pointing out that the true prevalence makes the mortality rate lower makes no sense, because it makes no difference. |
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LarryCoon
Site Staff
Joined: 11 Aug 2002
Posts: 11265
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:20 am Post subject: |
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| cal1piggy wrote: | | but the problem is that we simply cannot determine the true number of infected right now. at least until the antibody test becomes available. |
Holy hell, I just spent an entire post talking about why the prevalence (the true number of infected) isn't the important metric right now. I know you saw it, because that's the post you responded to. I guess you just skimmed it without bothering to understand it, because you were in such a hurry to make your (already-refuted) point? |
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cal1piggy
Star Player
Joined: 19 Jul 2017
Posts: 2584
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:24 am Post subject: |
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| LarryCoon wrote: | Yeah....kind of completely ignores the point I made. Even if you exclude and ignore the people who get it but stay asymptomatic and are never tested, we still have a huge problem on our hands -- or are these two doctors not paying attention to what's happening in hospitals right now?
As I look right now, there are 116,000 tested, confirmed cases, and the rate of tested, confirmed cases is doubling every couple days.
Of the tested, confirmed cases that have resolved, about 60% are recoveries (3,200) and 40% are deaths (1,900). The remaining ones are active cases that haven't resolved yet. These numbers will adjust over time (because early in the process there hasn't been enough time for a sufficient number of cases to resolve, therefore it's a small sample size, and because early in the process it caught us by surprise, somehow).
So here's the important takeaways:
1. The incidence is at 116,000 right now, and doubling every few days.
2. Of the cases that are old enough to have resolved, 40% are dying.
3. And this is all before our healthcare system is completely overwhelmed.
As I said in my previous post, their pointing out that the true prevalence makes the mortality rate lower makes no sense, because it makes no difference. |
if you are responding to me, then i agree with what you are saying. my point is just the # of ventillators needed is a simple minded way to see that the problem is unprecedented.
there are others that seem to be arguing that without testing, it could be other causes for the pneumonia. while plausible, i think that is highly unlikely and would have been detected by the healthcare system even if testing is way behind. |
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cal1piggy
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Joined: 19 Jul 2017
Posts: 2584
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:28 am Post subject: |
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| LarryCoon wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | but the problem is that we simply cannot determine the true number of infected right now. at least until the antibody test becomes available. |
Holy hell, I just spent an entire post talking about why the prevalence (the true number of infected) isn't the important metric right now. I know you saw it, because that's the post you responded to. I guess you just skimmed it without bothering to understand it, because you were in such a hurry to make your (already-refuted) point? |
i understand what you are saying.
the hospitalizations are going up exponentially without considering the true # of infected etc.
my point is that we need to know the true # of infection is how long this exponential growth can continue |
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Aeneas Hunter
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Joined: 12 Jul 2005
Posts: 31763
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:41 am Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: | | The Blaze? Really? |
It's quoting their editorial in the WSJ and, in any event, it has been reported elsewhere. There are a number of well credentialed experts who have questioned the death projections. The 538 survey that I linked shows how much the estimates vary among infectious disease experts.
Of course, the most dramatic estimates will get the most attention. That's not a bad thing. We needed to get people's attention and to galvanize a response. But the truth is that no one really has firm idea of how this is going to play out.
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Omar Little
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Joined: 02 May 2005
Posts: 90306
Location: Formerly Known As 24
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:44 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | Omar Little wrote: | | The Blaze? Really? |
It's quoting their editorial in the WSJ and, in any event, it has been reported elsewhere. There are a number of well credentialed experts who have questioned the death projections. The 538 survey that I linked shows how much the estimates vary among infectious disease experts.
Of course, the most dramatic estimates will get the most attention. That's not a bad thing. We needed to get people's attention and to galvanize a response. But the truth is that no one really has firm idea of how this is going to play out. |
That’s fair, but it’s irresponsible to position this in the way it was presented. Which is doing exactly the opposite of a good thing.
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“We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” ― Elie Wiesel |
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Aussiesuede
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Joined: 27 Jul 2005
Posts: 10964
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:53 pm Post subject: |
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| C M B wrote: | | how are you guys organizing orgies and gangbangs now with all this craziness? |
| Quote: | Pornhub have released some interesting statistics on how their wordwide traffic has changed since the beginning of self-isolation and social distancing. not only had visits to Pornhub increased, but we also found that people were choosing to visit the site at different times of the day.
Since February 24th worldwide traffic has been above average, but began to increase more noticeably around March 10th. As self-isolation efforts are ever-increasing across the world, the company recently made their Premium services free for users. As a result, traffic in the UK increasing 15%, in the US 18%, and Australia 5% on March 24th.
It also appears that early in the morning and early in the afternoon are prime times for people to grab out the headphones. With Pornhub thriving, condom and lube sales at an all time high and free Premium, it’s pretty obvious how the world is coping with self-isolation. |
Social Distancing
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I'm On point, On task, On message, and Off drugs. A Streetwise Smart Bomb, Out of rehab and In denial. Over the Top, On the edge, Under the Radar, and In Control. Behind the 8 ball, Ahead of the Curve and I've got a Love Child who sends me Hate mail. |
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Theseus
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Joined: 15 Dec 2007
Posts: 14208
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Aussiesuede wrote: | | C M B wrote: | | how are you guys organizing orgies and gangbangs now with all this craziness? |
| Quote: | Pornhub have released some interesting statistics on how their wordwide traffic has changed since the beginning of self-isolation and social distancing. not only had visits to Pornhub increased, but we also found that people were choosing to visit the site at different times of the day.
Since February 24th worldwide traffic has been above average, but began to increase more noticeably around March 10th. As self-isolation efforts are ever-increasing across the world, the company recently made their Premium services free for users. As a result, traffic in the UK increasing 15%, in the US 18%, and Australia 5% on March 24th.
It also appears that early in the morning and early in the afternoon are prime times for people to grab out the headphones. With Pornhub thriving, condom and lube sales at an all time high and free Premium, it’s pretty obvious how the world is coping with self-isolation. |
Social Distancing |
Pretty soon we are going to have a pornhub based economy. Their CEO is going to be the next secretary of treasury |
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strong9
Star Player
Joined: 22 Mar 2003
Posts: 3268
Location: so many places
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Aussiesuede wrote: | | C M B wrote: | | how are you guys organizing orgies and gangbangs now with all this craziness? |
| Quote: | Pornhub have released some interesting statistics on how their wordwide traffic has changed since the beginning of self-isolation and social distancing. not only had visits to Pornhub increased, but we also found that people were choosing to visit the site at different times of the day.
Since February 24th worldwide traffic has been above average, but began to increase more noticeably around March 10th. As self-isolation efforts are ever-increasing across the world, the company recently made their Premium services free for users. As a result, traffic in the UK increasing 15%, in the US 18%, and Australia 5% on March 24th.
It also appears that early in the morning and early in the afternoon are prime times for people to grab out the headphones. With Pornhub thriving, condom and lube sales at an all time high and free Premium, it’s pretty obvious how the world is coping with self-isolation. |
Social Distancing |
So humans are weak and maladaptive and the reptilian brain kicks into high drive...fascinating study on how much we really have evolved. |
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Aussiesuede
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Joined: 27 Jul 2005
Posts: 10964
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:25 pm Post subject: |
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| strong9 wrote: | | Aussiesuede wrote: | | C M B wrote: | | how are you guys organizing orgies and gangbangs now with all this craziness? |
| Quote: | Pornhub have released some interesting statistics on how their wordwide traffic has changed since the beginning of self-isolation and social distancing. not only had visits to Pornhub increased, but we also found that people were choosing to visit the site at different times of the day.
Since February 24th worldwide traffic has been above average, but began to increase more noticeably around March 10th. As self-isolation efforts are ever-increasing across the world, the company recently made their Premium services free for users. As a result, traffic in the UK increasing 15%, in the US 18%, and Australia 5% on March 24th.
It also appears that early in the morning and early in the afternoon are prime times for people to grab out the headphones. With Pornhub thriving, condom and lube sales at an all time high and free Premium, it’s pretty obvious how the world is coping with self-isolation. |
Social Distancing |
So humans are weak and maladaptive and the reptilian brain kicks into high drive...fascinating study on how much we really have evolved. |
Just wait until December for more proof. All those pictures of hospitals overflowing with geriatrics will be replaced picture of hospitals with babies squeezed into every nook and cranny. December 2020 is sure to be the largest number of babies born in a single month in human history...
_________________
I'm On point, On task, On message, and Off drugs. A Streetwise Smart Bomb, Out of rehab and In denial. Over the Top, On the edge, Under the Radar, and In Control. Behind the 8 ball, Ahead of the Curve and I've got a Love Child who sends me Hate mail. |
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ChefLinda
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 24166
Location: Boston
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:56 pm Post subject: |
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USA Today: More than 2,000 coronavirus patients have died in US
| Quote: | | Confirmed U.S. coronavirus-related deaths double in two days, hitting 2,000 |
| Quote: | Just one day after the U.S. surpassed 100,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, the nation witnessed another grim figure: More than 2,000 COVID-19 patients have died.
Testing continues to expand across the nation, and the U.S. is seeing daily spikes in the number of reported cases. Nearly 500 coronavirus-related deaths were reported Saturday, up from 1,544 confirmed deaths 24 hours earlier, according to Johns Hopkins University's data dashboard.
The death toll was 2,010 Saturday shortly after 6 p.m. ET. That number is expected to rise steadily in the coming days and weeks, and health officials say the number of cases is likely higher due to lack of testing. Nearly 18,000 new cases were reported on both Wednesday and Thursday, according to Johns Hopkins.
More than 120,000 cases have been reported in the U.S.
Cases have been reported in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands. New York has reported the most deaths, followed by Washington, New York and Louisiana, according to Johns Hopkins. |
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ChefLinda
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 24166
Location: Boston
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Within a few days we will surpass the number of 9/11 deaths. |
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JerryWest_44
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kikanga
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Posts: 29331
Location: La La Land
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:14 pm Post subject: |
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It really gets scary when you think of the non-Covid related deaths that could've been prevented if the healthcare system wasn't swamped.
I'm so glad at least some of the population is staying home as much as possible.
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"Every hurt is a lesson, and every lesson makes you better” |
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Omar Little
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Posts: 90306
Location: Formerly Known As 24
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:32 pm Post subject: |
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Mortality rate isn’t real useful when the number of cases is growing so fast that there’s so many unresolved.
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“We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” ― Elie Wiesel |
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32
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:44 pm Post subject: |
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I saw a segment earlier on CNN with Dr. Larry Brilliant and he said there was a new study (can't recall the study) that says there could be 85,000 deaths in the United States in the next 3 months.
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Nobody in the NBA can touch the Laker brand, which, like the uniform color, is pure gold. |
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venturalakersfan
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Joined: 14 Apr 2001
Posts: 144464
Location: The Gold Coast
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:52 pm Post subject: |
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Bobby Hebert’s father (Bobby Hebert Sr) dies from COVID-19.
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RIP mom. 11-21-1933 to 6-14-2023. |
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DaMuleRules
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Joined: 10 Dec 2006
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Location: Making a safety stop at 15 feet.
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: |
Mortality rate isn’t real useful when the number of cases is growing so fast that there’s so many unresolved. |
Yeah. People are throwing a lot of numbers around without any context to give them significance. I get the fascination with hard numbers, but the numbers will be what they will. We just need to focus on doing the right things to be thoughtful and respectful community members.
_________________
You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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JerryWest_44
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Joined: 22 May 2004
Posts: 25430
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:10 pm Post subject: |
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| DaMuleRules wrote: | | Omar Little wrote: |
Mortality rate isn’t real useful when the number of cases is growing so fast that there’s so many unresolved. |
Yeah. People are throwing a lot of numbers around without any context to give them significance. I get the fascination with hard numbers, but the numbers will be what they will. We just need to focus on doing the right things to be thoughtful and respectful community members. |
California has tested 89,600 people
Of those California has rec'd results for 25,192 (4,643 positive[1,034 hospitalized] & 20, 549 negative)
Results pending for 64,400 |
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Aussiesuede
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Joined: 27 Jul 2005
Posts: 10964
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:24 pm Post subject: |
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Preliminary CDC Numbers info 6 month 2019/2020 Flu season
| Quote: | .
38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses (6.3mil-9mil/mo)
18,000,000 – 26,000,000 flu medical visits (10.8mil - 4.3mil/mo)
400,000 – 730,000 flu hospitalizations (66,666/mo {Devilish}- 121,666/mo)
24,000 – 62,000 flu deaths (4000 - 10,333 /month) |
CDC
This years overall US mortality rates will be interesting. Hopefully there isn't an outrageous uptick.
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I'm On point, On task, On message, and Off drugs. A Streetwise Smart Bomb, Out of rehab and In denial. Over the Top, On the edge, Under the Radar, and In Control. Behind the 8 ball, Ahead of the Curve and I've got a Love Child who sends me Hate mail. |
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Ted
Star Player
Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 3477
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:53 pm Post subject: |
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My friend in NY, his ICU currently has 100 patients, all Covid, 70 intubated, youngest is 19, oldest is in his 80s. Many 30-40 yo previously healthy patients.
At Jamaica hospital in Queens, they are releasing psychiatric patients and converting the psych ward into a Covid unit. The psych residents are being placed on the medicine wards. Specialists are getting on the fly teaching on how to change ventilator settings since they'll be working in the ICU. A lot of physicians are getting sick/exposed and are placed on 2 week home quarantine so manpower is needed.
Hospital I work at, last night in our ED, 10 intubations. On any given night it's usually about 3. We're preparing for the surge that's to come in a few weeks. This (bleep) is just starting. Stay at home, especially right now. |
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ChickenStu
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Joined: 25 Apr 2015
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Location: Anaheim, CA
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:39 pm Post subject: |
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Christopher J. Hale
@chrisjollyhale
The first US death from the coronavirus was February 29. The 1000th death was Thursday. The 2000th death was today.
4:35 PM · Mar 28, 2020·Twitter for iPhone |
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Nnamdi21
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kikanga
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Joined: 15 Sep 2012
Posts: 29331
Location: La La Land
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| Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:40 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | Christopher J. Hale
@chrisjollyhale
The first US death from the coronavirus was February 29. The 1000th death was Thursday. The 2000th death was today.
4:35 PM · Mar 28, 2020·Twitter for iPhone |
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"Every hurt is a lesson, and every lesson makes you better” |
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C M B
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Joined: 15 Nov 2006
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Location: Prarie & Manchester, high above the western sideline
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| Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:07 am Post subject: |
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one of my hospitals has just discharged the last pediatric medsurg patient from its newest and most high-tech pediatric wing. it will be annexed for adult covid cases. They are preparing for southern california to peak in the near future.
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| Sister Golden Hair wrote: | LAMAR ODOM is an anagram for ... DOOM ALARM
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