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emplay Site Staff
Joined: 15 Apr 2001 Posts: 25545
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unleasHell Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Apr 2001 Posts: 11591 Location: Stay Thirsty my Friends
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Posted: Sun Oct 13, 2019 5:21 pm Post subject: |
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I think this pre-season is showing that the Lakers are just a LeBron and AD injury away from being a lottery team.! _________________ “Always remember... Rumors are carried by haters, spread by fools, and accepted by idiots.” |
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emplay Site Staff
Joined: 15 Apr 2001 Posts: 25545
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Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:30 am Post subject: |
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Rockets are a lottery team without Harden and Westbrook
the Warriors are a lottery team without Klay and Steph
the Nuggets are a lottery team w/o Jokic
the Blazers are a lottery team w/o Lillard
the Clippers are a lottery team w/o Kawhi and PG13
the Spurs are a lottery team without LMA
the Jazz are a lottery team without Gobert and Mitchell _________________ Salary Cap Strategist and Columnist at Bleacher Report and on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/EricPincus |
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unleasHell Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Apr 2001 Posts: 11591 Location: Stay Thirsty my Friends
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Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:04 pm Post subject: |
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emplay wrote: | Rockets are a lottery team without Harden and Westbrook
the Warriors are a lottery team without Klay and Steph
the Nuggets are a lottery team w/o Jokic
the Blazers are a lottery team w/o Lillard
the Clippers are a lottery team w/o Kawhi and PG13
the Spurs are a lottery team without LMA
the Jazz are a lottery team without Gobert and Mitchell |
Good points, but can you research how many games each guy missed last year?
AD = 26 and Lebron = 27 (if I recall correctly) oh, and don't forget Howard = 73... _________________ “Always remember... Rumors are carried by haters, spread by fools, and accepted by idiots.” |
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awntawn Starting Rotation
Joined: 29 Apr 2016 Posts: 953
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Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:29 am Post subject: |
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unleasHell wrote: | Good points, but can you research how many games each guy missed last year?
AD = 26 and Lebron = 27 (if I recall correctly) oh, and don't forget Howard = 73... |
One of the biggest fallacies that the media and a lot of uninformed fans fall for is the assumption that any rare fluke event that happens the previous year is automatically a trend that will continue the next, without looking at any context.
You'll notice several of these narratives like: Pascal Siakam made a huge leap and won MIP. As a result, he's going to make another huge leap next year and become a franchise player level star, most likely winning MIP again. Kawhi Leonard joined a team and won a championship. He's going to join another team and win another championship next year. LeBron James suffered his first major injury of his career. He's now an injury-prone player.
All three of these events are uncommon occurrences. Players that make a huge leap out of nowhere to win MIP generally don't take another huge leap and win MIP again (people point to Giannis, but Giannis' improvement was never a leap out of nowhere, it's been a consistent jump year to year from the beginning). Superstar players usually don't get traded to a team that was the number one seed the previous year and had all the championship calibur talent but just lacked experience and mental fortitude. LeBron James suffered a freak injury despite being one of the most durable players in league history before that point.
The same thing happens every year, and the same people fall for it every single year. Overachieving teams get overrated (Boston Celtics). Players who miss time due to freak injuries/circumstances get underrated (Kawhi). Players who made a surprising leap are expected to keep improving (Oladipo).
If you look at the trends beyond the blips, you'll find evidence contrary to the narratives. LeBron was showing no signs of slowing down before his freak injury. When he finally came back, he took awhile to get back into playing shape. In his last few games of the season, albeit too late after already being eliminated from playoff contention, he started getting healthy and showing signs that he was just as explosive and dominant as before the injury. AD had a few injury prone seasons his first few years, as do many young players, but as he began rounding into his physical prime, started playing 70+ games and ending his seasons healthy in the playoffs. As with most young stars, he took a few years to learn how to win, but once he became the dominant force he was, he started making the playoffs, progressing further each year. Then this last year happened, which was a blip caused largely by a catastrophic regression of his team due to the Pelicans mortgaging their future for a player that they lost to an injury and subsequently free agency (DMC), and AD's subsequent trade demand saga that lead to the team trying to tank for draft positioning and preserving his health for trade purposes. |
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