Hollywood Hoops: Lakers May be Really, Really Good

 
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emplay
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 10:33 am    Post subject: Hollywood Hoops: Lakers May be Really, Really Good

Hey All,

It's early, a preseason game doesn't amount to much, but on the latest @hollywood_hoops Ep 155 - Los Angeles Lakers May Be Really, Really Good w/@JoshMartinNBA https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/hollywood-hoops?selected=ADL3395383586

Cheers,

EP
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unleasHell
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2019 5:21 pm    Post subject:

I think this pre-season is showing that the Lakers are just a LeBron and AD injury away from being a lottery team.!
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emplay
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:30 am    Post subject:

Rockets are a lottery team without Harden and Westbrook

the Warriors are a lottery team without Klay and Steph

the Nuggets are a lottery team w/o Jokic

the Blazers are a lottery team w/o Lillard

the Clippers are a lottery team w/o Kawhi and PG13

the Spurs are a lottery team without LMA

the Jazz are a lottery team without Gobert and Mitchell
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unleasHell
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:04 pm    Post subject:

emplay wrote:
Rockets are a lottery team without Harden and Westbrook

the Warriors are a lottery team without Klay and Steph

the Nuggets are a lottery team w/o Jokic

the Blazers are a lottery team w/o Lillard

the Clippers are a lottery team w/o Kawhi and PG13

the Spurs are a lottery team without LMA

the Jazz are a lottery team without Gobert and Mitchell


Good points, but can you research how many games each guy missed last year?

AD = 26 and Lebron = 27 (if I recall correctly) oh, and don't forget Howard = 73...
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awntawn
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:29 am    Post subject:

unleasHell wrote:
Good points, but can you research how many games each guy missed last year?

AD = 26 and Lebron = 27 (if I recall correctly) oh, and don't forget Howard = 73...

One of the biggest fallacies that the media and a lot of uninformed fans fall for is the assumption that any rare fluke event that happens the previous year is automatically a trend that will continue the next, without looking at any context.

You'll notice several of these narratives like: Pascal Siakam made a huge leap and won MIP. As a result, he's going to make another huge leap next year and become a franchise player level star, most likely winning MIP again. Kawhi Leonard joined a team and won a championship. He's going to join another team and win another championship next year. LeBron James suffered his first major injury of his career. He's now an injury-prone player.

All three of these events are uncommon occurrences. Players that make a huge leap out of nowhere to win MIP generally don't take another huge leap and win MIP again (people point to Giannis, but Giannis' improvement was never a leap out of nowhere, it's been a consistent jump year to year from the beginning). Superstar players usually don't get traded to a team that was the number one seed the previous year and had all the championship calibur talent but just lacked experience and mental fortitude. LeBron James suffered a freak injury despite being one of the most durable players in league history before that point.

The same thing happens every year, and the same people fall for it every single year. Overachieving teams get overrated (Boston Celtics). Players who miss time due to freak injuries/circumstances get underrated (Kawhi). Players who made a surprising leap are expected to keep improving (Oladipo).

If you look at the trends beyond the blips, you'll find evidence contrary to the narratives. LeBron was showing no signs of slowing down before his freak injury. When he finally came back, he took awhile to get back into playing shape. In his last few games of the season, albeit too late after already being eliminated from playoff contention, he started getting healthy and showing signs that he was just as explosive and dominant as before the injury. AD had a few injury prone seasons his first few years, as do many young players, but as he began rounding into his physical prime, started playing 70+ games and ending his seasons healthy in the playoffs. As with most young stars, he took a few years to learn how to win, but once he became the dominant force he was, he started making the playoffs, progressing further each year. Then this last year happened, which was a blip caused largely by a catastrophic regression of his team due to the Pelicans mortgaging their future for a player that they lost to an injury and subsequently free agency (DMC), and AD's subsequent trade demand saga that lead to the team trying to tank for draft positioning and preserving his health for trade purposes.
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