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If Lonzo is so Expendable, why are the Lakers so bad without him?
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activeverb
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:24 pm Post subject:

LakesGnrLake wrote:

Lakers were 4th in the west when Lonzo and Bron were healthy. e

We had a 15-5 run early in the season that put us in 4th place, but to put that in context 10 or 11 of those wins were against non-playoff teams. So our being in 4th place was as much a function of a soft early schedule as anything.

Even before the injuries started, we were hitting a harder part of the schedule and coming back down to earth,

adkindo
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:36 pm Post subject:

activeverb wrote:

LakesGnrLake wrote:

Lakers were 4th in the west when Lonzo and Bron were healthy. e

right, it is not as simple as with and without one player. Lebron was out 6 or 7 games that Lonzo was out....and was likely far more critical to the results in those games. Also, you have to consider the opponents and where they games were played....we all knew that our schedule was backloaded with tougher opponents and more road games.

activeverb
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:39 pm Post subject:

adkindo wrote:

activeverb wrote:

LakesGnrLake wrote:

Lakers were 4th in the west when Lonzo and Bron were healthy. e

The inference that we'd be in fourth place if Lonzo and Lebron had been healthy all season doesn't ring true to me.

This is definitely a team that needs more talent if it's going to matter.

adkindo
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:55 pm Post subject:

Since the claim is that Lonzo's absence has mostly been felt on the defensive end.....since he has been out, the starting PG's of the other team... GSW - Curry 11 Points / 3 of 12 Shooting TWolves - Rose 6 Points / 3 of 7 Shooting Suns - Okobo 4 Points / 2 of 6 Shooting 76'ers - Simmons 19 Points / 9 of 18 Shooting LAC - Beverly 17 Points / 6 of 11 Shooting GSW - Curry 14 Points / 5 of 15 Shooting Indy - Collison 5 Points / 2 of 6 Shooting Boston - Irving 24 Points / 6 of 21 Shooting 76'ers - Simmons 8 Points / 3 of 13 Shooting Hawks - Young 22 Points / 6 of 19 Shooting Houston - Harden 30 Points / 11 of 24 Shooting Pelicans - Payton 14 Points / 5 of 10 Shooting 12 Games - 174 Points = 14.5 Points Average Per Game 61 FG's of 162 FGA's = 37% FG% So in the 12 games that we have been without Ball's defense, the opposing starting PG's, in which 6 of the 12 games was current All Stars, averaged 14.5 Points per game on 37% shooting. Is the claim that Ball's defense would improve those numbers?

Practice
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:04 pm Post subject:

adkindo wrote:

Since the claim is that Lonzo's absence has mostly been felt on the defensive end.....since he has been out, the starting PG's of the other team...

GSW - Curry 11 Points / 3 of 12 Shooting
TWolves - Rose 6 Points / 3 of 7 Shooting
Suns - Okobo 4 Points / 2 of 6 Shooting
76'ers - Simmons 19 Points / 9 of 18 Shooting
LAC - Beverly 17 Points / 6 of 11 Shooting
GSW - Curry 14 Points / 5 of 15 Shooting
Indy - Collison 5 Points / 2 of 6 Shooting
Boston - Irving 24 Points / 6 of 21 Shooting
76'ers - Simmons 8 Points / 3 of 13 Shooting
Hawks - Young 22 Points / 6 of 19 Shooting
Houston - Harden 30 Points / 11 of 24 Shooting
Pelicans - Payton 14 Points / 5 of 10 Shooting

12 Games - 174 Points = 14.5 Points Average Per Game
61 FG's of 162 FGA's = 37% FG%

So in the 12 games that we have been without Ball's defense, the opposing starting PG's, in which 6 of the 12 games was current All Stars, averaged 14.5 Points per game on 37% shooting.

Is the claim that Ball's defense would improve those numbers?

I don't think you can just look at how an opposing player of the same position shot to determine a player's impact defensively.

GameCock-MD
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:05 pm Post subject: Re: If Lonzo is so Expendable, why are the Lakers so bad without him?

Captain America wrote:

I feel like there is a major lack of appreciation for what Zo brings to the table for us on this board. I played college basketball myself and when I watch Lakers games, I think it is pretty evident that Zo is one of, if not the best player on the Lakers at this stage of Bron's career. I was curious if the W/L splits with and without Zo backed up this claim and i was actually a little surprised by the results.

17-18:
With Zo: 24-28 (46.2% win rate) Without Zo: 11-19 (36.7% win rate)

18-19
With Zo: 25-22 (53.2% win rate) Without Zo: 4-8 (33.3% win rate)

Overall:
With Zo: 49-50 (49.5% win rate) Without Zo: 15-27 (35.7%)

Any game where Zo played at least 1 minute was included as "With Zo" so a couple games where Zo got injured and we ended up losing like the Rockets game recently are still being held against Zo. Therefore, these stats probably mildly understate Zo's impact on the W/L column.

A lot of casual basketball fans look at simple stats like points scored fg% etc. and assume this automatically helps the team. However, points are actually the least impactful thing you can do on the basketball court. The most important question for players is how many games did you actually win? So glad the AD trade didn't go through

I agree 100%. Lonzo is clearly a very important player to this team...and he's only a 2nd year player!

Can you imagine how important he will be in a few years?

LakesGnrLake
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:05 pm Post subject:

adkindo wrote:

All you need to watch is that one video GT posted where Lonzo literally guards every player on one posession to see the impact Zo has. No one else on this team can do that or tries to do that.

adkindo
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:06 pm Post subject:

Practice wrote:

adkindo wrote:

I don't think you can just look at how an opposing player of the same position shot to determine a player's impact defensively.

well on LG you can't unless it is favorable to Ball...then it becomes 100% accurate lock down evidence.

adkindo
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:08 pm Post subject:

LakesGnrLake wrote:

adkindo wrote:

All you need to watch is that one video GT posted where Lonzo literally guards every player on one posession to see the impact Zo has. No one else on this team can do that or tries to do that.

1 video of 1 play in a video created by Lonzo's #1 fan....yes, that sounds exactly like the proof I have been looking for....

GameCock-MD
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:11 pm Post subject:

LakesGnrLake wrote:

adkindo wrote:

All you need to watch is that one video GT posted where Lonzo literally guards every player on one posession to see the impact Zo has. No one else on this team can do that or tries to do that.

Not to mention our defensive gameplan is to switch everything. That's a HUGE hole in an attempt to describe only 1 position's efficiency while Lonzo was out.

Captain America
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:13 pm Post subject: Re: If Lonzo is so Expendable, why are the Lakers so bad without him?

adkindo wrote:

NBALakerLegends wrote:

adkindo wrote:

Captain America wrote:

A lot of casual basketball fans look at simple stats like points scored fg% etc. and assume this automatically helps the team. However, points are actually the least impactful thing you can do on the basketball court.

in a game where the ultimate goal is to score more points than your opponent....points are actually the least impactful thing you can do on a basketball court?

Most of the guys in the NBA are in the league due to their scoring. Lonzo was helping us win games mostly on the defensive end. The biggest fact that shows Zo’s impact is the Lakers defensive rating at 7th place when he’s healthy to 27th when he’s out. That’s 2018 Andre Roberson level, but he does pretty much everything else better than Roberson.

whether I or anyone agrees or disagrees with your thoughts, they do not explain how "points are actually the least impactful thing you can do on a basketball court".

Every NBA player can score at a relatively high level. The difference between an elite scorer like Damian Lillard and Lonzo in say 3pt shooting% is 36% vs. 33%. The major impact on the scoredboard is is all the playmaking, steals, blocks rebounds etc. that give you ease buckets and extra possessions. Not to mention only one guy can shoot per possession, so the difference in fg% is even less important. Scoring is the least important aspect of the game. Winning is a result of doing all the little things, hence the W/L impact for Zo

adkindo
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:29 pm Post subject: Re: If Lonzo is so Expendable, why are the Lakers so bad without him?

Captain America wrote:

adkindo wrote:

NBALakerLegends wrote:

adkindo wrote:

Captain America wrote:

in a game where the ultimate goal is to score more points than your opponent....points are actually the least impactful thing you can do on a basketball court?

whether I or anyone agrees or disagrees with your thoughts, they do not explain how "points are actually the least impactful thing you can do on a basketball court".

while I disagree with you on many claims...or the omissions such as 3FG% being a material difference between Ball and Lillard....Lillard has a massive offensive skill repertoire at his disposal which is why he so valuable, while Ball has very few NBA level offensive skills. Still the win - loss focus of the 12 games is flawed based on the overlap of Lebron being absent for half of them, the level of competition during the stretch without Ball, and the majority of the games being on the road.

activeverb
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:30 pm Post subject:

Practice wrote:

LakerSD wrote:

Outspoken wrote:

LakerSD wrote:

Lonzo is not really expendable. He is good at what he does.

The issue is if he is this injury prone, you cannot rely on him.

Availability is just as big as being an impact player.

Yet we want AD...

AD has injury issues himself but he is nowhere near the level that Lonzo is at.

Lonzo has missed most of his NBA career to date. Lonzo is Embiid level on the injury scale and might surpass Joel with 1 or 2 more short seasons.

Embiid missed the first two seasons of his career, played 31 games in his third, and 63 in his fourth. Please stop.

All three of these guys had significant injury issues early in the career. Embiid was much worse than the other two.

AD has played 75 games the previous two years and is on track for that again, so that seems behind him.

Embiid we'll see,

But of course Embiid and AD are also MVP level players, while at this point Lonzo is probably an average NBA starting point guard.

activeverb
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:30 pm Post subject:

Practice wrote:

LakerSD wrote:

Outspoken wrote:

LakerSD wrote:

Lonzo is not really expendable. He is good at what he does.

The issue is if he is this injury prone, you cannot rely on him.

Availability is just as big as being an impact player.

Yet we want AD...

Embiid missed the first two seasons of his career, played 31 games in his third, and 63 in his fourth. Please stop.

Captain America
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:30 pm Post subject:

adkindo wrote:

As discussed in my previous post, this post analyzes basketball at a casual level focusing on points scored. Many nights when a PG is tearing apart a defense, it leads to a kickout for an open three or hockey assist leading to a good shot. Points are not a good indicator of impact on a game. Worse yet half these games were blowouts where the the starting PG played under 25 minutes.

Thirdly I don't think anyone argued Zo is a defense-only player (I assume this is what you were implying) who plays no help D and sticks to the opposing PG all game... Zo impacts all aspects of the game offense and defense

adkindo
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:46 pm Post subject:

Captain America wrote:

right, I get it...I am a casual fan that is not able to see the game like fans of Ball's. It is impossible to have any legitimate debate when the fall back is always this claim of how he effects the game, but it does not appear in the numbers. It was not only suggested, but stated in this thread that the primary place we miss Ball is on defense. I actually do not even doubt we do miss him, but I do doubt his impact makes a material difference in the win loss record while he has been absent. Finally you suggest he makes a difference in our offense, but just like last year, the on-off numbers illustrate our offense has been better when Ball is not in the game.

Last edited by adkindo on Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:48 pm; edited 2 times in total

LakerLogic
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:52 pm Post subject:

Our defense has been close to the worst in the league without him, that is not really debatable.

Ziggy
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:52 pm Post subject:

adkindo wrote:

LakesGnrLake wrote:

adkindo wrote:

All you need to watch is that one video GT posted where Lonzo literally guards every player on one posession to see the impact Zo has. No one else on this team can do that or tries to do that.

1 video of 1 play in a video created by Lonzo's #1 fan....yes, that sounds exactly like the proof I have been looking for....

Lonzo's forte isn't man defense. He's a disruptor, which does impact team defense. He has the most deflections on the team and can guard multiple positions and rebounds very well for his position.

activeverb
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:53 pm Post subject:

Captain America wrote:

As discussed in my previous post, this post analyzes basketball at a casual level focusing on points scored.

So I guess you’re suggesting that you’re not a casual fan? Fair enough. But the REAL question is are you a "true fan." Because that's the preferred self-declaration of people who want to say "my opinion matters more than the opinion of anyone who disagrees with me."

(FYI, it's easy to become a "true fan" -- just hang a Lakers banner in your bedroom!!!!! That gives you the right to tell ANYONE you know more than they do!!!).

Last edited by activeverb on Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:57 pm; edited 1 time in total

PerchiN
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:54 pm Post subject:

LakerLogic wrote:

Our defense has been close to the worst in the league without him, that is not really debatable.

Was about to post the same thing. The Lakers defense is BAD without him, and that's why they lose to terrible teams.

adkindo
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:54 pm Post subject:

LakerLogic wrote:

Our defense has been close to the worst in the league without him, that is not really debatable.

it has been 3.8 Points per 100 possessions without him on the court.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/balllo01/on-off/2019

Captain America
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:54 pm Post subject:

activeverb wrote:

Captain America wrote:

As discussed in my previous post, this post analyzes basketball at a casual level focusing on points scored.

So I guess you’re suggesting that you’re not a casual fan so your opinion matters more than the opinions of people who disagree with you? Yup, that sure will impress everyone here

A) I played college basketball, I've put a lot of time into the game compared to the average casual fan.
B) I said "that post" analyzes basketball at a casual level, which is fine. A more advanced analysis to refute the 141 game sample I provided would typically rely on better stats than points scored by the point guard position in subset of 12 games.

trablos
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:54 pm Post subject:

VocabuLaker wrote:

LakesGnrLake wrote:

al242 wrote:

BREAKING NEWS: The Lakers were bad with Lonzo too

#TradeHisAss

Lakers were 4th in the west when Lonzo and Bron were healthy. How people still refuse to see Lonzo's value is beyond me

4th in the west was just 2 games out of 10th at the time.
4th in the west was NO major accomplishment at all

By that same token being 10th is really no biggie.

adkindo
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:58 pm Post subject:

Captain America wrote:

activeverb wrote:

Captain America wrote:

As discussed in my previous post, this post analyzes basketball at a casual level focusing on points scored.

So I guess you’re suggesting that you’re not a casual fan so your opinion matters more than the opinions of people who disagree with you? Yup, that sure will impress everyone here

wait, you are suggesting your win loss analysis that does not take the opponent into consideration....the other players that also were out into consideration...or where the game was played into consideration is far more advanced than the numbers I posted?

LakerLogic
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Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:59 pm Post subject:

https://lakeshowlife.com/2019/02/23/los-angeles-lakers-examining-lonzo-ball-factor/

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