President George H.W. Bush passes away at 94
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 9:40 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
GHWB, as of 1980, was a leading light of the moderate wing of the GOP, which included me at the time. When he became the VP nominee, he moved a notch to the right in his rhetoric, but the more conservative elements always viewed him with suspicion. Many of us in my part of the political spectrum view him with a certain wistfulness. He lost support in the 1992 election from his own party because he compromised with the Democrats on taxes. Think about that.

I never met him, but I know a lot of people around town who did. Without exception, they say that he was just as nice a person as his public image suggests. He would come out and chitchat with the local police officers who were involved in security.

I realize that many people will react to him through a partisan filter or with reference to things he did that they disagreed with. Still, he was a political figure from an era that is now gone. His generation had a mindset that was colored by WWII and the Cold War. When Jimmy Carter passes, that generation will be gone.

RIP.


I couldn't agree more in every respect.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 10:03 am    Post subject:

He signed The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) which became law in 1990. The ADA is a civil rights law that prohibits discrimination against individuals with disabilities in all areas of public life, including jobs, schools, transportation, and all public and private places that are open to the general public.

RIP.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 10:08 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
GHWB, as of 1980, was a leading light of the moderate wing of the GOP, which included me at the time. When he became the VP nominee, he moved a notch to the right in his rhetoric, but the more conservative elements always viewed him with suspicion. Many of us in my part of the political spectrum view him with a certain wistfulness. He lost support in the 1992 election from his own party because he compromised with the Democrats on taxes. Think about that.

I never met him, but I know a lot of people around town who did. Without exception, they say that he was just as nice a person as his public image suggests. He would come out and chitchat with the local police officers who were involved in security.

I realize that many people will react to him through a partisan filter or with reference to things he did that they disagreed with. Still, he was a political figure from an era that is now gone. His generation had a mindset that was colored by WWII and the Cold War. When Jimmy Carter passes, that generation will be gone.

RIP.

Well said AH
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 10:34 am    Post subject:

RIP
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:11 pm    Post subject:

Did we ever learn who his favorite magician was?
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:18 pm    Post subject:

ocho wrote:
Did we ever learn who his favorite magician was?


Nancy Reagan.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:41 pm    Post subject:

Last Republican President I had any respect for. RIP.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 3:08 pm    Post subject:

I just remembered something very nice I read about him
Concerning how he treated an employee who told him he was gay.
He was kind and told him he was still welcome to work for him
And made him feel very accepted like a father figure <<this was at a time
Gays/Aids were both vilified

Also just read about him attending and presiding over a gay wedding
He reference the twig in his bothers eyes vs his own plank.
Said don't criticize others unless you know your own heart is clean

Just like most presidents, I doubt war can be stopped once the big families
Decide war is what they want
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 6:29 pm    Post subject:

Conker wrote:
Thought of him throughout the month of this November. I can write more but I think Omar Little already explain it. I was born a month before he was elected but did some research on Bush. Wasn't a bad president, just in a bad situation when the "voo-doo economics" were taking effect.

RIP, George H.W. Bush.


Obama called him one of our more underrated recent presidents.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:23 pm    Post subject:

Omar Little wrote:
DaMuleRules wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
The last decent republican.


Define "decent".


Served his country. Stood up to “voodoo economics”. Believed in the responsibility of the wealthy to the poor. Raised taxes knowing it would doom his political prospects. Did not overplay the Iraq war. Disagreed with his son but was respectful of the office. Did a lot of good with Bill Clinton post presidency.

I have numerous disagreements with him on policy, and maybe on parenting, but I respect that he tried to be a decent man (late dementia nanny grabbing notwithstanding) based on his beliefs.

You think Bush would have been re-elected in '92 if Lee Atwater didn't die?
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 9:48 pm    Post subject:

Conker wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
DaMuleRules wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
The last decent republican.


Define "decent".


Served his country. Stood up to “voodoo economics”. Believed in the responsibility of the wealthy to the poor. Raised taxes knowing it would doom his political prospects. Did not overplay the Iraq war. Disagreed with his son but was respectful of the office. Did a lot of good with Bill Clinton post presidency.

I have numerous disagreements with him on policy, and maybe on parenting, but I respect that he tried to be a decent man (late dementia nanny grabbing notwithstanding) based on his beliefs.

You think Bush would have been re-elected in '92 if Lee Atwater didn't die?


No.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 10:14 pm    Post subject:

Conker wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
DaMuleRules wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
The last decent republican.


Define "decent".


Served his country. Stood up to “voodoo economics”. Believed in the responsibility of the wealthy to the poor. Raised taxes knowing it would doom his political prospects. Did not overplay the Iraq war. Disagreed with his son but was respectful of the office. Did a lot of good with Bill Clinton post presidency.

I have numerous disagreements with him on policy, and maybe on parenting, but I respect that he tried to be a decent man (late dementia nanny grabbing notwithstanding) based on his beliefs.

You think Bush would have been re-elected in '92 if Lee Atwater didn't die?


At least Atwater apologized for the Willie Horton crap. Bush never did.
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:34 am    Post subject:

Conker wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
DaMuleRules wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
The last decent republican.


Define "decent".


Served his country. Stood up to “voodoo economics”. Believed in the responsibility of the wealthy to the poor. Raised taxes knowing it would doom his political prospects. Did not overplay the Iraq war. Disagreed with his son but was respectful of the office. Did a lot of good with Bill Clinton post presidency.

I have numerous disagreements with him on policy, and maybe on parenting, but I respect that he tried to be a decent man (late dementia nanny grabbing notwithstanding) based on his beliefs.

You think Bush would have been re-elected in '92 if Lee Atwater didn't die?


It's quite possible that Bush would've won in '92 if Ross Perot didn't exist. I guess we'll never know, but Perot did win 18.95 of the popular vote, campaigned on opposing NAFTA, and was a fellow Texan like Bush. It stands to reason that he pulled Bush voters a lot more than he did Clinton voters, and that was how I viewed it at the time, as a 15-year-old who was about to turn 16. Clinton did have a 43-37.4% popular vote margin over Bush, so if 2/3 of Perot voters would have voted for Bush, that would've made the popular vote roughly even. As we know, it all comes down to the Electoral College, and, since I'm a history nerd, I wanted to go back and look at how close some of the states were that Clinton won. For the sake of this exercise, I'll give Bush 2/3 of Perot's votes, and I realize that could very well be generous.

Georgia: Clinton won by less than 14K votes, and Perot garnered just less than 310K, so it stands to reason that Bush probably wins Georgia's 13 electoral votes if you take Perot out of it.

Tennessee: Clinton got 933,521 votes, Bush got 841,300, and Perot got 199,968. So with the 2/3 exercise, Bush would've still lost by about 25K votes. Could've been quite close if he had captured slightly more than 2/3 of Perot's voters here, though. The Volunteer State had 11 electoral votes.

Missouri: Perot did better here than his national average, garnerning just under 519K votes (21.69%). With the 2/3 exercise, Clinton ends up with 1,226,614 votes, while Bush checks in with 1,157,159. So, again, close, but not quite for Bush, so he would've needed a little more than 2/3 of Perot's votes. Missouri had 11 electoral votes.

Louisiana: Another close one. Clinton won by about 82,500 votes, and Perot got just under 211,500 votes. The final count would've ended up as 886,393 for Clinton and 874,442 for Bush. Nine electoral votes were at stake.

Kentucky: For the 8 electoral votes up for grabs, Clinton would've ended up with 733,017 votes, with Bush coming out on top at 753,209.

Montana: For the mere 3 electoral votes here, Bush only lost by a little over 13K votes, and Perot got just over 107K (26.12%), so this would've gone to Bush.

Wisconsin: Bush lost the 11 electoral votes here by just over 110K votes. Since Perot picked up more than 544K votes, here's another one Bush would have won with the 2/3 rule.

Michigan: Another close one, with 18 electoral votes at stake. Clinton would've ended up with 2,145,845 votes, and Bush comes in at 2,105,090.

Iowa: Another close one for the 7 electoral votes. Clinton would've had 670,758, with Bush edging him out at 673,954 votes.

Ohio: It appears that Perot probably cost Bush Ohio's 21 electoral votes, as he only lost to Clinton by a little under 91K votes, and Perot picked up just over a million votes. Even a 60/40 split here would've resulted in a pretty easy win for Bush.

New Jersey: Yet another pickup for Bush, with 15 electoral votes. Bush lost by just under 80K, and Perot picked up just under 522K votes. Using the 2/3 figure, Bush would've won by about 95K votes (roughly 1,705,000 to 1,610,000).

New Hampshire: A pretty easy Bush win here for the 4 electoral votes at stake; he lost the state by less than 7K votes, and Perot got over 121K votes.

Nevada: Just 4 more electoral votes here, but Clinton only won by just over 13K votes. Perot had a lot of support here (26.19% vote share), and his 132,580 votes likely cost Bush this state as well.

Colorado: With 8 electoral votes at stake, Clinton won by about 67K votes, and Perot garnered a tick over 366K (23.32% vote share). The 2/3 math comes up with a 55K win for Bush.

Clinton won 370 electoral votes, and Bush won 168. From my 2/3 rule, it would've been an 87-vote swing, so that would not have gotten Bush there; the count would've been Clinton 283, Bush 255. But if he could've flipped just a couple of those other states where I mentioned how close it would've been--say, if he had received more like 70% in some states--he could've won the election. Obviously, we'll never know, but it would've probably been really close, just as the national popular vote count would've been. I realize that this also assumes that he would've gotten 2/3 of the vote in those states where I had him coming out on top, and that very well may not have been the case; upon doing some further research (looking at exit poll numbers), Bush probably wouldn't have pulled 2/3 of Perot voters nationally, though he certainly would've garnered a majority of those voters, and it's just a question of exactly how many. More than likely, Clinton would have narrowly won the popular vote and probably won the Electoral College too, as the path for Bush would've been a narrow one. Still, we'll never know for sure.
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:09 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
For the sake of this exercise, I'll give Bush 2/3 of Perot's votes, and I realize that could very well be generous.


This is a reasonable assumption in one sense, but unrealistic in another. It is reasonable in the sense that Bush was closer to most of the Perot voters ideologically. It is unrealistic because Perot was a protest vote. A lot of those people would not have gone back to Bush (or Clinton) if Perot was not an option. They might have voted for the Libertarian candidate or whatever, or they might have stayed home. It's impossible to estimate this effect.

2016 provides a contemporary analogy. There were a number of moderate or liberal voters who voted Libertarian, Green, or whatever. If those candidates were not on the ballot, it does not follow that those voters would have switched to Hillary Clinton. On the contrary, many of those people voted Libertarian, Green, or whatever because they hated Hillary Clinton. If the ballot had been Clinton-Trump only, some of them (perhaps most of them) would have stayed home.

So a 2-1 split in favor of Bush may be reasonable, but not for 100% of the Perot voters. It could have been 75% of the Perot voters (50-25 for Bush), or it could have been 50% of the Perot voters (33.3-16.6 for Bush). If you take this into account, the chances that Perot actually cost Bush the election in terms of votes is negligible. Perot probably hurt Bush a lot more by attacking the GOP philosophically, but that is truly impossible to measure.
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:16 am    Post subject:

All this commentary and not a single mention of Bush's role in, and knowledge of, Iran/Contra (five scandals in one), despite publicly stating he was out of the loop, and his obstruction to the investigation by not providing his diary as evidence.
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:00 am    Post subject:

ribeye wrote:
All this commentary and not a single mention of Bush's role in, and knowledge of, Iran/Contra (five scandals in one), despite publicly stating he was out of the loop, and his obstruction to the investigation by not providing his diary as evidence.


As long as we are adding:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amiriyah_shelter_bombing
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:11 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
GHWB, as of 1980, was a leading light of the moderate wing of the GOP, which included me at the time. When he became the VP nominee, he moved a notch to the right in his rhetoric, but the more conservative elements always viewed him with suspicion. Many of us in my part of the political spectrum view him with a certain wistfulness. He lost support in the 1992 election from his own party because he compromised with the Democrats on taxes. Think about that.


Pat Buchanan played on the moderate/wimp characterizations that hounded Bush in 92. Pat and that typical faction of Repubs wanted Bush a 1-termer too. That year David Duke also ran as one of the Republican gentlemen in the primaries.
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:11 am    Post subject:

ocho wrote:
ribeye wrote:
All this commentary and not a single mention of Bush's role in, and knowledge of, Iran/Contra (five scandals in one), despite publicly stating he was out of the loop, and his obstruction to the investigation by not providing his diary as evidence.


As long as we are adding:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amiriyah_shelter_bombing


I'l raise you a U.S. non-intervention controversy (in Iraq) (see bottom of article)

Quote:
During the brief, roughly one-month period of unrest, tens of thousands of people died and nearly two million people were displaced.


Quote:
Prompted by foreign policy "realists" in his administration—such as Colin Powell, Brent Scowcroft and Richard Haass—Mr. Bush allowed Saddam to fly military aircraft to put down the uprising. While thousands of U.S. troops were still on Iraqi soil and in some cases were close enough to watch, the tyrant unleashed the power of modern weaponry against men, women and children.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_uprisings_in_Iraq
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:11 am    Post subject:

ribeye wrote:
All this commentary and not a single mention of Bush's role in, and knowledge of, Iran/Contra (five scandals in one), despite publicly stating he was out of the loop, and his obstruction to the investigation by not providing his diary as evidence.


Eh. No one is claiming that GHWB was a saint. He came from a political family, the son of a senator. He made his money in the west Texas oil business, which has always been . . . colorful. He was elected to Congress in Houston when Texas was run by the Dixiecrats and Republicans were a novelty. He was appointed as UN ambassador by Nixon, then he was Chairman of the RNC during Watergate. He was later CIA director.

It is reasonable to assume that he made some compromises along the way. There were persistent rumors that he had a regular girlfriend while he was president. There were probably other things that no one ever heard about.

Thankfully, we don't seriously expect political figures to be saints. Otherwise, we'd be even more disappointed than we already are.
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:14 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
ribeye wrote:
All this commentary and not a single mention of Bush's role in, and knowledge of, Iran/Contra (five scandals in one), despite publicly stating he was out of the loop, and his obstruction to the investigation by not providing his diary as evidence.


Eh. No one is claiming that GHWB was a saint. He came from a political family, the son of a senator. He made his money in the west Texas oil business, which has always been . . . colorful. He was elected to Congress in Houston when Texas was run by the Dixiecrats and Republicans were a novelty. He was appointed as UN ambassador by Nixon, then he was Chairman of the RNC during Watergate. He was later CIA director.

It is reasonable to assume that he made some compromises along the way. There were persistent rumors that he had a regular girlfriend while he was president. There were probably other things that no one ever heard about.

Thankfully, we don't seriously expect political figures to be saints. Otherwise, we'd be even more disappointed than we already are.


There is quite a distance from being a saint and the constitutional issues involved of violating the Boland Amendment, not to mention supporting rapists and murderers, terrorists, and a country that recently took Americans hostage.
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:22 am    Post subject:

ribeye wrote:
There is quite a distance from being a saint and the constitutional issues involved of violating the Boland Amendment, not to mention supporting rapists and murderers, terrorists, and a country that recently took Americans hostage.


It sounds like you are trying to stir up an argument that belongs in The Political Thread. More generally, I have about has much interest in relitigating Iran-Contra as I do of relitigating Watergate, Monica Lewinsky, or Teapot Dome.
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:28 am    Post subject:

ocho wrote:
ribeye wrote:
All this commentary and not a single mention of Bush's role in, and knowledge of, Iran/Contra (five scandals in one), despite publicly stating he was out of the loop, and his obstruction to the investigation by not providing his diary as evidence.


As long as we are adding:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amiriyah_shelter_bombing


Manufacturing a crack cocaine purchase across the street from the White House to help fuel “The War on Drugs” . . .
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:57 am    Post subject:

Let's return to basic thoughts and prayers in this thread and take the political talk to the Politics thread. Feel free to copy and paste over to that thread to continue a specific conversation. Thanks.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:19 pm    Post subject:

Steve Goodman sings My Old Man
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