2019 LA Dodgers Thread (Dodgers are acquiring catcher Russell Martin from Toronto; Pg 27)
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:44 pm    Post subject:

Lets hope Dodgers sign somebody it would be terrible if they just gave away long term Dodger players just for salary relief.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:11 pm    Post subject:

is kluber to the dodgers dead? haven't heard much lately
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:25 pm    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
Lets hope Dodgers sign somebody it would be terrible if they just gave away long term Dodger players just for salary relief.


When you say long term, do you mean the players were here for a long term, or do you mean they were on long term contracts?
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:29 am    Post subject:

Surfitall wrote:
I really hope you are right about Jansen.


I'm hoping that Jansen's struggles last season were mainly due to the irregular heartbeat relapse that he suffered.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:36 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Surfitall wrote:
I really hope you are right about Jansen.


I'm hoping that Jansen's struggles last season were mainly due to the irregular heartbeat relapse that he suffered.


When that occurred, Kenley was 0-3, with 32 saves and 3 blown saves, and with a 2.15 ERA. Also, he did not pitch much in spring training, only 4 2/3 innings. As of the end of Apr, he had a 5.59 ERA with 3 saves, 2 blown saves and an 0-1 W/L record. After that, and up until the heart issue, he had a 1.41 ERA, with 29 saves and 1 blown save, with a W/L of 0-2.

So, have a regular spring training, take care of the heart, and he should be good to go.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:24 pm    Post subject:

^
That's what I'm hoping, ribeye!
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:01 pm    Post subject:

The Yankees are signing Zach Britton to a deal averaging about $13MM per season, according to reports. If true, how does that make us feel about Joe Kelly landing $8MM a year? Makes it look fairly reasonable, I suppose.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:52 pm    Post subject:

Yaz signs a 1-year, $18.5 deal with the Brewers after turning down 4/$60 from the Mets.

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/1083212505948844032?s=21
https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/1083214600471040000?s=21

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:04 pm    Post subject:

Yet again, several players and their agents are misreading the market. If he turned down 4/$60MM from the Mets and ended up taking $18.25MM for one year, yeah, that's just a major misread. Machado is apparently not getting close to the offers he thought he would, and we'll see on Harper. It appears that MLB Trade Rumors' predictions of a 14-year deal for Harper and a 13-year deal for Machado are going to be way, way off.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:35 pm    Post subject:

DuncanIdaho wrote:
Yaz signs a 1-year, $18.5 deal with the Brewers after turning down 4/$60 from the Mets.

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/1083212505948844032?s=21
https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/1083214600471040000?s=21



He's getting bad advice. Don't think he's getting another deal like what he was offered from the Mets. A player of his caliber should realize that he should value job security over a one year deal which is great for an owner.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:42 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Yet again, several players and their agents are misreading the market. If he turned down 4/$60MM from the Mets and ended up taking $18.25MM for one year, yeah, that's just a major misread. Machado is apparently not getting close to the offers he thought he would, and we'll see on Harper. It appears that MLB Trade Rumors' predictions of a 14-year deal for Harper and a 13-year deal for Machado are going to be way, way off.


The fact is the entire league has the stats that only the money ball guys used to depend on. Stanton's mega deal was supposed to be the new bar that the agents wanted for top tier guys. But it hasn't worked out like the agents had hoped. It really began last year with JD Martinez and the Sox "only" paying him 100 million. Mike Moustakis turned down a large deal from the Royals only to grovel back to them for a small one year deal for a fraction of the original offer. Reports are that the Nats offered Harper more than 300 million for him to re up which he turned down. I'm guessing he won't see anywhere close to that kind of money from any other team.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:47 pm    Post subject:

I don't get why he would take a gamble where he makes 3.5 million more for next year, but potentially loses out on the 45 million for the next 3 years. Not very smart risk/analysis on his part.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:34 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Yet again, several players and their agents are misreading the market. If he turned down 4/$60MM from the Mets and ended up taking $18.25MM for one year, yeah, that's just a major misread. Machado is apparently not getting close to the offers he thought he would, and we'll see on Harper. It appears that MLB Trade Rumors' predictions of a 14-year deal for Harper and a 13-year deal for Machado are going to be way, way off.


I feel like we're heading for a lockout.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:14 am    Post subject:

DuncanIdaho wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
Yet again, several players and their agents are misreading the market. If he turned down 4/$60MM from the Mets and ended up taking $18.25MM for one year, yeah, that's just a major misread. Machado is apparently not getting close to the offers he thought he would, and we'll see on Harper. It appears that MLB Trade Rumors' predictions of a 14-year deal for Harper and a 13-year deal for Machado are going to be way, way off.


I feel like we're heading for a lockout.


We'll see. Guys are still getting paid a lot of money. I just always thought it was weird that MLB Trade Rumors--a very reputable site--thought Harper would get 14 years. Yes, he's younger than the typical star free agent when they hit the market. I get that. But he's not A-Rod. The dude has had some iffy years along with a superstar year and another really great year, and he comes with some injury questions and he doesn't really add much in the field. He deserves to get paid a lot, but 14 years? That just always seemed crazy to me.

Same thing with Machado. Yes, he provides value in the field if he's playing third base, but we're talking about a guy with a career OPS of .822. And he's going to get 13 years? Coming off his clownish antics with the Dodgers? Just because these dudes are young doesn't mean they should get ridiculous contracts, and I just think the owners have wised up to that. I don't think it's collusion, in this case. I mean, if the Mets offered Grandal 4 years and $60MM, that was a very nice offer and he should have taken it.

Now, if Mike Trout wants a 10-year deal? Different story. We're talking about legendary production on a consistent, year-to-year basis.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:44 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Now, if Mike Trout wants a 10-year deal? Different story. We're talking about legendary production on a consistent, year-to-year basis.


But how much of that is pure speculation, given the huge error bars that come with predicting what any person (let alone athlete) will be a decade from now, how much is deferred payment for current production being applied as later-year salary, and how much of that is true pay for production?
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:04 am    Post subject:

DuncanIdaho wrote:
Yaz signs a 1-year, $18.5 deal with the Brewers after turning down 4/$60 from the Mets.

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/1083212505948844032?s=21
https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/1083214600471040000?s=21



I'm not sure this was as bad a decision as you suggest. Though he had an OPS+ of 120, the second highest WAR among MLB catchers, and has seen his WAR numbers generally increase over the years (oh yeah, we mustn't forget, "but he frames well"), what sticks with him, what most ardent Dodger followers see, and I suspect what he did not want his contract to be based on, is his abysmal performance during the playoffs. Maybe he wants to show that this was an aberration and then sign a better multi-year contract down next year.

Still, he could have simply signed the qualifying offer the Dodgers offered, that was nearly the same ($17.9M) and be in the same place. Though I'm not, and never have been, a Grandal fan at all, if he would have done this, he could be that one year placeholder the team needs.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:12 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
DuncanIdaho wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
Yet again, several players and their agents are misreading the market. If he turned down 4/$60MM from the Mets and ended up taking $18.25MM for one year, yeah, that's just a major misread. Machado is apparently not getting close to the offers he thought he would, and we'll see on Harper. It appears that MLB Trade Rumors' predictions of a 14-year deal for Harper and a 13-year deal for Machado are going to be way, way off.


I feel like we're heading for a lockout.


We'll see. Guys are still getting paid a lot of money. I just always thought it was weird that MLB Trade Rumors--a very reputable site--thought Harper would get 14 years. Yes, he's younger than the typical star free agent when they hit the market. I get that. But he's not A-Rod. The dude has had some iffy years along with a superstar year and another really great year, and he comes with some injury questions and he doesn't really add much in the field. He deserves to get paid a lot, but 14 years? That just always seemed crazy to me.

Same thing with Machado. Yes, he provides value in the field if he's playing third base, but we're talking about a guy with a career OPS of .822. And he's going to get 13 years? Coming off his clownish antics with the Dodgers? Just because these dudes are young doesn't mean they should get ridiculous contracts, and I just think the owners have wised up to that. I don't think it's collusion, in this case. I mean, if the Mets offered Grandal 4 years and $60MM, that was a very nice offer and he should have taken it.

Now, if Mike Trout wants a 10-year deal? Different story. We're talking about legendary production on a consistent, year-to-year basis.


Yeah I pretty much agree. Harper and Machado have been talked about as though they are gods. We saw Machado. He was nothing godlike. And, Harper is about as consistent as the recent stock market.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:32 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Yet again, several players and their agents are misreading the market. If he turned down 4/$60MM from the Mets and ended up taking $18.25MM for one year, yeah, that's just a major misread.


Is that a major misread? Another 3 yrs for $41.75M? That's less than $14M per yr as a catcher.

I don't know if it's a major misread to leave that money on the table. I think he's betting on himself to have a better year and reenter the FA market next yr.

Can the Brewers offer him the QO? If there's no draft pick compensation attached to him, he might be able to attract better offers.

He'd surely do better than 3 yrs $41.75M next yr.

One thing about Grandal, he's pretty consistent with his numbers.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:50 pm    Post subject:

free agency in baseball is so overrated. everyone there are bunch of no namers come out of nowhere to have career years.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:55 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
DuncanIdaho wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
Yet again, several players and their agents are misreading the market. If he turned down 4/$60MM from the Mets and ended up taking $18.25MM for one year, yeah, that's just a major misread. Machado is apparently not getting close to the offers he thought he would, and we'll see on Harper. It appears that MLB Trade Rumors' predictions of a 14-year deal for Harper and a 13-year deal for Machado are going to be way, way off.


I feel like we're heading for a lockout.


We'll see. Guys are still getting paid a lot of money. I just always thought it was weird that MLB Trade Rumors--a very reputable site--thought Harper would get 14 years. Yes, he's younger than the typical star free agent when they hit the market. I get that. But he's not A-Rod. The dude has had some iffy years along with a superstar year and another really great year, and he comes with some injury questions and he doesn't really add much in the field. He deserves to get paid a lot, but 14 years? That just always seemed crazy to me.

Same thing with Machado. Yes, he provides value in the field if he's playing third base, but we're talking about a guy with a career OPS of .822. And he's going to get 13 years? Coming off his clownish antics with the Dodgers? Just because these dudes are young doesn't mean they should get ridiculous contracts, and I just think the owners have wised up to that. I don't think it's collusion, in this case. I mean, if the Mets offered Grandal 4 years and $60MM, that was a very nice offer and he should have taken it.

Now, if Mike Trout wants a 10-year deal? Different story. We're talking about legendary production on a consistent, year-to-year basis.


The problem is guys aren't getting the mega contracts they were in the past, even though revenue and profits are at an all-time high. If contracts are (rightly so) moving towards shorter-term contracts that make more sense for baseball teams, something will have to give in the early career. Right MLB owns players for 7 years when they make pennies. I can see everyone bargaining towards something more like the NBA with shorter entry-level contracts. I doubt teams give up on that though. It could get ugly.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:00 pm    Post subject:

Yaz got 18.25 million guaranteed for a year?

He hit .241 (i know outdated stat) and fielded his position like Jack the Ripper.

Good work if you can get it.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:53 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
Yet again, several players and their agents are misreading the market. If he turned down 4/$60MM from the Mets and ended up taking $18.25MM for one year, yeah, that's just a major misread.


Is that a major misread? Another 3 yrs for $41.75M? That's less than $14M per yr as a catcher.

I don't know if it's a major misread to leave that money on the table. I think he's betting on himself to have a better year and reenter the FA market next yr.

Can the Brewers offer him the QO? If there's no draft pick compensation attached to him, he might be able to attract better offers.

He'd surely do better than 3 yrs $41.75M next yr.

One thing about Grandal, he's pretty consistent with his numbers.


No. A player cannot receive a QO for two consecutive years. (This was changed with the most recent CBA.) So yes, no risk of draft pick compensation tied to him next offseason. However, I just think he's risking a lot. If he has a similar year, OK, maybe he can get another 4-year, $60MM-ish offer, though he'll be another year older. And even a 3-year, $45MM-ish offer would more than make him whole. But if he has a down year, I mean, things change quickly. Jonathan Lucroy was a great catcher for a while, and within 2 seasons he has become just another guy. (He was an All-Star as recently as 2016.) He had to settle for a 1-year, $6.5MM deal with Oakland last year coming off an indifferent '17, and coming off an even-worse '18, he just signed with the Angels for 1 year and $3.35MM.

I just think that the risk far outweighs the potential reward, in this case.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:14 am    Post subject:

LarryCoon wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
Now, if Mike Trout wants a 10-year deal? Different story. We're talking about legendary production on a consistent, year-to-year basis.


But how much of that is pure speculation, given the huge error bars that come with predicting what any person (let alone athlete) will be a decade from now, how much is deferred payment for current production being applied as later-year salary, and how much of that is true pay for production?


This kind of language is why you're a very smart man and why I'm a simpleton!

In all seriousness, and this is just an educated guess based on my years of following baseball, if Mike Trout were a 27-year-old free agent right now, I think he would get a minimum of 10 years on his contract and a minimum of $400MM. His consistent all-World greatness is quite literally the stuff of legend. And while it's unlikely that his age 33-37 years would be worth, say, $40MM per year, it's likely that his age 28-32 seasons would be worth more than $40MM per year. I mean, he's averaged about 9 WAR per full season. Some involved with the game believe that 1 WAR is worth about $8MM in the marketplace, so, well, you can see where the math goes on that. It would simply be a matter of how much he outperforms the contract by in his prime years, compared against how much he underperforms it by as he declines. Throw in how we generally know how free agency works in sports, with how the top players always get overpaid when it's an auction that goes to the highest bidder, and, yeah, I'm pretty confident that he would get those numbers. At a minimum.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:20 am    Post subject:

Dodgers acquiring catcher Russell Martin from Toronto to pair with Austin Barnes, according to a baseball source.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:28 am    Post subject:

32 wrote:
Dodgers acquiring catcher Russell Martin from Toronto to pair with Austin Barnes, according to a baseball source.


That should tell us who they are NOT going to get, which is just fine with me, considering the cost. If nothing else, this makes figuring out the lineup card a little easier.
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