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epak
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 Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:58 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | epak wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | epak wrote: |
Not sure why you say it's not gonna happen.
Unless they get outbid by NY or the Rangers by a ridiculous amount, I can see one or both happening. |
Dodgers have not signed a big time free agent with Friedman in office. They've lost every bidding war they've ever been involved in.
They lost Greinke to the DBacks
They lost on the bidding war for Kenley Jansen (he had to take less to stay with the Dodgers)
They lost out on Bryce Harper
If the Dodgers sign any big time free agent this offseason, it'll be because that free agent decided to take less to play for the Dodgers.
The same thing could be said of Ryu. If Ryu wants to remain with the Dodgers, he'll have to take less than what other teams are offering. Dodgers just don't win bidding wars. |
Note: SGV's stance is that the Dodgers will only bargain hunt ex-all stars coming off injuries.
Your take is that they wont win a bidding war, unless said player takes less to come here. Note your take is different from his, which is why I guess you snipped the quote.
Like I said. If some other team overpays for these guys, obviously I dont see us trying to match. IMO it's foolish to overpay. After the 2 WS losses and the season being cut short last year, I see the dodgers extending themselves more than they have in the past in terms of paying for a star. |
Yeah, at the end of the day, it's a prediction of what will and won't happen.
If you want to differentiate between the predictions, so be it.
But at the end of the day, their track record is their track record. They don't sign big time free agents. They go for 2nd tier free agents.
Example - last yr we chased Harper for how long? We ended up with AJ Pollock.
That's just how this regime has rolled and until they prove otherwise, why predict anything different?
And why even add this:
| Quote: | | Unless they get outbid by NY or the Rangers by a ridiculous amount, I can see one or both happening. |
When has a big name free agent taken less to go to a new team? Can you name one in the history of free agency?
Seems like every single big name free agent has either: taken the biggest offer on the market to go to a new team, or re-signed with his former team on a hometown discount. |
Prior to going after Bryce, have the dodgers gone after a star during the AF era? I don't recall.
The point is throwing your hat into the mix for a star like the last year and this year is different from the previous years where the regime was clearly trying to lower payroll.
So I'm good with them getting in the mix. And I'm good with them coming up short if the pay is too high. I'm sure most of us are good with missing out on Bryce. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:58 pm Post subject: |
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| SGV-Laker fan wrote: | | epak wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | epak wrote: |
Not sure why you say it's not gonna happen.
Unless they get outbid by NY or the Rangers by a ridiculous amount, I can see one or both happening. |
Dodgers have not signed a big time free agent with Friedman in office. They've lost every bidding war they've ever been involved in.
They lost Greinke to the DBacks
They lost on the bidding war for Kenley Jansen (he had to take less to stay with the Dodgers)
They lost out on Bryce Harper
If the Dodgers sign any big time free agent this offseason, it'll be because that free agent decided to take less to play for the Dodgers.
The same thing could be said of Ryu. If Ryu wants to remain with the Dodgers, he'll have to take less than what other teams are offering. Dodgers just don't win bidding wars. |
Note: SGV's stance is that the Dodgers will only bargain hunt ex-all stars coming off injuries.
Your take is that they wont win a bidding war, unless said player takes less to come here. Note your take is different from his, which is why I guess you snipped the quote.
Like I said. If some other team overpays for these guys, obviously I dont see us trying to match. IMO it's foolish to overpay. After the 2 WS losses and the season being cut short last year, I see the dodgers extending themselves more than they have in the past in terms of paying for a star. |
i really think Friedman will do throw in those obligatory offers knowing fully well they'll be outbid, then he can say to the fanbase see i've tried it, they went for the big money. deep down he still has that money ball small market mentality comes to free agency. |
I don't think they are obligatory offers. I think the offers are good faith offers on the slim hope that the free agents will take less to play for the DODGERS.
I think they do that every year hoping one year, some free agent will take less to play for the DODGERS.
Basically, the Dodgers hope to get a hometown discount from EVERY free agent out there. |
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SGV-Laker fan
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:02 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | SGV-Laker fan wrote: | | epak wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | epak wrote: |
Not sure why you say it's not gonna happen.
Unless they get outbid by NY or the Rangers by a ridiculous amount, I can see one or both happening. |
Dodgers have not signed a big time free agent with Friedman in office. They've lost every bidding war they've ever been involved in.
They lost Greinke to the DBacks
They lost on the bidding war for Kenley Jansen (he had to take less to stay with the Dodgers)
They lost out on Bryce Harper
If the Dodgers sign any big time free agent this offseason, it'll be because that free agent decided to take less to play for the Dodgers.
The same thing could be said of Ryu. If Ryu wants to remain with the Dodgers, he'll have to take less than what other teams are offering. Dodgers just don't win bidding wars. |
Note: SGV's stance is that the Dodgers will only bargain hunt ex-all stars coming off injuries.
Your take is that they wont win a bidding war, unless said player takes less to come here. Note your take is different from his, which is why I guess you snipped the quote.
Like I said. If some other team overpays for these guys, obviously I dont see us trying to match. IMO it's foolish to overpay. After the 2 WS losses and the season being cut short last year, I see the dodgers extending themselves more than they have in the past in terms of paying for a star. |
i really think Friedman will do throw in those obligatory offers knowing fully well they'll be outbid, then he can say to the fanbase see i've tried it, they went for the big money. deep down he still has that money ball small market mentality comes to free agency. |
I don't think they are obligatory offers. I think the offers are good faith offers on the slim hope that the free agents will take less to play for the DODGERS.
I think they do that every year hoping one year, some free agent will take less to play for the DODGERS.
Basically, the Dodgers hope to get a hometown discount from EVERY free agent out there. |
in the meantime watching the WS window closing shut? not a good play by the front office. we were very VERY close of winning it all, just need that extra boost. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:09 pm Post subject: |
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| epak wrote: | Prior to going after Bryce, have the dodgers gone after a star during the AF era? I don't recall.
The point is throwing your hat into the mix for a star like the last year and this year is different from the previous years where the regime was clearly trying to lower payroll. |
Yeah, and you're not saying anything different.
You asked if they've gone after any big time free agents?
Yeah, they throw their names into the mix and get outbid. That's the MO.
2015 - they went after Greinke hard and got outbid by Arizona
2016 - they went after Jansen and got outbid by the Marlins. They were going to let him go to the Marlins until Jansen got a change of heart and requested to talk to the Dodgers again. He ended up having to take less just to remain a Dodger
2017 - we had our names in there for Yu Darvish and got outbid by the Cubs
2018 - Bryce Harper
2019 - ??
| Quote: | | So I'm good with them getting in the mix. And I'm good with them coming up short if the pay is too high. I'm sure most of us are good with missing out on Bryce. |
And you know what? It's going to be too high again this year. It's always going to be "too high"
Free agents always go to the highest bidder, and the highest bid is always going to be "too high"
So far, we see that Strasburg at 7 yrs $245M was "too high"
We know Cole will get something way more than that which will also be "too high"
And we're pretty sure Rendon will end up getting something that will be "too high" as well.
Every big time free agent in the history of mlb free agency has signed a contract that was deemed "too high"
I can't think of a big time free agent that signed a contract that was considered "reasonable" at the time he signed it. You?
Last edited by LongBeachPoly on Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:17 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:11 pm Post subject: |
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| SGV-Laker fan wrote: | | In the meantime watching the WS window closing shut? not a good play by the front office. we were very VERY close of winning it all, just need that extra boost. |
Well, they are who they are. I don't think these offers are fake offers. I think they wanted to re-sign Greinke, they wanted to re-sign Jansen, they wanted to sign Harper.
I think those were real offers even though they always get outbid in the end. |
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epak
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:49 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | epak wrote: | Prior to going after Bryce, have the dodgers gone after a star during the AF era? I don't recall.
The point is throwing your hat into the mix for a star like the last year and this year is different from the previous years where the regime was clearly trying to lower payroll. |
Yeah, and you're not saying anything different.
You asked if they've gone after any big time free agents?
Yeah, they throw their names into the mix and get outbid. That's the MO.
2015 - they went after Greinke hard and got outbid by Arizona
2016 - they went after Jansen and got outbid by the Marlins. They were going to let him go to the Marlins until Jansen got a change of heart and requested to talk to the Dodgers again. He ended up having to take less just to remain a Dodger
2017 - we had our names in there for Yu Darvish and got outbid by the Cubs
2018 - Bryce Harper
2019 - ??
| Quote: | | So I'm good with them getting in the mix. And I'm good with them coming up short if the pay is too high. I'm sure most of us are good with missing out on Bryce. |
And you know what? It's going to be too high again this year. It's always going to be "too high"
Free agents always go to the highest bidder, and the highest bid is always going to be "too high"
So far, we see that Strasburg at 7 yrs $245M was "too high"
We know Cole will get something way more than that which will also be "too high"
And we're pretty sure Rendon will end up getting something that will be "too high" as well.
Every big time free agent in the history of mlb free agency has signed a contract that was deemed "too high"
I can't think of a big time free agent that signed a contract that was considered "reasonable" at the time he signed it. You? |
Yep, I got it. You don't care about the method, just the result. That's fair.
IMO, they haven't gone after a lot of guys in the 4 year span. I haven't read about them meeting with multiple top FAs like they did this year. But we'll see. Hopefully you're wrong.
Regarding contracts I've liked in the past:
JD Martinez
Justin Turner
Johnny Cueto
Not sure if you consider them big time FAs. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:04 pm Post subject: |
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| epak wrote: | Yep, I got it. You don't care about the method, just the result. That's fair.
IMO, they haven't gone after a lot of guys in the 4 year span. I haven't read about them meeting with multiple top FAs like they did this year. But we'll see. Hopefully you're wrong.
Regarding contracts I've liked in the past:
JD Martinez
Justin Turner
Johnny Cueto
Not sure if you consider them big time FAs. |
Yeah, when I mean big time FAs, I mean guys with multiple suitors. Guys that teams get into a bidding war with. (Remember, I was responding to a post that said we weren't going to get Rendon and Cole. The biggest FAs on the market).
Cueto was injured and he had a rough 2nd half with KC. Teams weren't bidding for his services so he signed a reasonable deal with the Giants that gave him an opt out after 2 years so he can restablish his market.
Turner, I don't know if he actually shopped around. I don't remember the Dodgers winning a bidding war with him. I just remembered that he re-signed.
And JD Martinez, yeah, he got alot lower than I thought. The market was depressed at that time. And again, I don't know if he took a discount to play with the Red Sox.
But, yeah, when you're going after the top free agents that have multiple teams interested, you're going to have to be prepared to pay the most. That's the only way to sign them. It's not enough to just throw your name into the hat and hope.
Like I said, they either go to the highest bidder, or they re-sign with their own team for a hometown discount.
The only hope for the Dodgers is that it's a depressed free agent market that will keep these numbers down.
Even last year in a depressed market, they were outbid for Harper.
This year definitely doesn't look like a depressed market so they're going to have to be the highest bidder to sign any of these top guys. That's just the way it is.
If they're not ready to be the highest bidder, they won't be able to sign any of the top guys (Strasburg, Rendon, Cole).
They might have better luck with the 2nd tier guys (Donaldson, Ryu, etc) |
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epak
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:57 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Alanna Rizzo
@alannarizzo
Roberts said the #Dodgers have been more aggressive in this year’s free agency picture because of the quality of FA in this class. #WinterMeetings2019 |
We shall see. |
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epak
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Ken Gurnick
@kengurnick
Roberts said owner Mark Walter has been at the center of the Dodgers’ aggressive offseason pursuit of top-level talent. |
This seems different. Hopefully it's for a tier 1 and not a tier 2 FA. |
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ExPatLkrFan
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Location: Mukdahan, Thailand
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Well the Dodgers missed out on Darvish, Grienke, Harper, and hit on Jansen. May as well count Machado on the list too. How did that turn out? I'm glad they didn't get the ones that went elsewhere and wish Jansen was a Marlin. But that's just me. |
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epak
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Jorge Castillo
@jorgecastillo
As the Dodgers have indicated before, Roberts said Gavin Lux could see some time in the outfield next season. |
That's interesting.
If Turner ever needs to move to first, we can keep Muncy at 2nd.
And Lux going to the outfield also makes sense if the rumors about trading Joc are true. |
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ChickenStu
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epak
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:29 pm Post subject: |
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I mean, without the trashcan, he'll probably be very civilian  |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:31 pm Post subject: |
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| epak wrote: | | Quote: | Ken Gurnick
@kengurnick
Roberts said owner Mark Walter has been at the center of the Dodgers’ aggressive offseason pursuit of top-level talent. |
This seems different. Hopefully it's for a tier 1 and not a tier 2 FA. |
Well like you said earlier:
| Quote: | | And I'm good with them coming up short if the pay is too high. I'm sure most of us are good with missing out on Bryce. |
The price tag's going to come up really high for the tier 1 FAs. There's no doubt about that.
How ready and willing is Mark Walter for paying ridiculous money?
Strasburg already got ridiculous money. Cole's already been offered ridiculous money. We can assume Rendon will get ridiculous money as well. |
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epak
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Dodgers, very disciplined in free agency in recent years, are willing to make an exception for Cole and are thought heavily into the bidding. Hard to say who’s favored but they are perennial winners with deep pockets and seeming resolve in this case. NYY, LAA, others in. |
| Quote: | Andy Martino
@martinonyc
Dodgers main focus is Rendon but they are in on Cole a little harder than initially thought. Astros in but on periphery and not hopeful. |
Sound good so far. We'll see how much of it is just talk. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:34 pm Post subject: |
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| epak wrote: | | Quote: | Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Dodgers, very disciplined in free agency in recent years, are willing to make an exception for Cole and are thought heavily into the bidding. Hard to say who’s favored but they are perennial winners with deep pockets and seeming resolve in this case. NYY, LAA, others in. |
| Quote: | Andy Martino
@martinonyc
Dodgers main focus is Rendon but they are in on Cole a little harder than initially thought. Astros in but on periphery and not hopeful. |
Sound good so far. We'll see how much of it is just talk. |
It always sounds hopeful. I think last yr at one pt we were the favorites for Harper
| Quote: | Bryce Harper Odds: Dodgers New Favorites to Sign Star After Yasiel Puig Trade
DECEMBER 22, 2018
The odds for Bryce Harper's future home have shifted in light of recent trade developments involving the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Per BetOnline.ag (h/t OddsShark), the Dodgers are now a +200 favorite (bet $100 to win $200) to sign the 2015 National League MVP. They are followed by the Philadelphia Phillies at +300 and New York Yankees at +400.
The Dodgers' bump for Harper comes after they gained some financial flexibility by trading outfielders Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp, pitcher Alex Wood and utility man Kyle Farmer to the Cincinnati Reds for a package of three players—Homer Bailey was part of the deal but was released immediately after it became official.
Per MLB.com's Ken Gurnick, the Dodgers saved $16 million in luxury-tax payroll and $7 million in actual salary after the trade.
Their current payroll for 2019 is $156.3 million, which doesn't include arbitration totals that Gurnick noted could add up to $20 million in salary.
Assuming Harper receives a deal worth at least $30 million in average annual salary—the same amount he reportedly turned down from the Washington Nationals near the end of the season, per USA Today's Bob Nightengale—the Dodgers will have to go into the luxury tax to sign him.
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| Quote: | The Dodgers Are Now The Vegas Odds Favorite To Sign Bryce Harper
by Clint Evans
02/27/2019, 6:00 AM
32Comments
Share
Harper watch rolls onward. In a storyline that feels like it has been evolving since we were all young – we are coming towards a swift resolution.
On Tuesday, news broke that the Los Angeles Dodgers have again moved to the front of the line at Sports books to be the team that signs the free agent outfielder. Equally important, it’s become a two-horse race. We are down to the Los Angeles Dodgers (the favorite), and the Philadelphia Phillies (the slight underdog). Let’s hope that Philadelphia does not make like Rocky Balboa in this match.
Odds Shark
✔
@OddsShark
BREAKING: The Dodgers are now the betting favorite to sign Bryce Harper.
Dodgers -150
Phillies +110
Giants +1200
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| Quote: |
February 28, 2019
Bryce Harper Rumors: Los Angeles Dodgers Surge Into The Lead, Now Considered Odds-On Favorites To Sign Harper
The Sporting News also reported that the Dodgers, Phillies, and Nationals were the only teams left in the running for Harper. The report speculated that the Dodgers may have changed their gameplan, no longer offering a short-term deal for more money per season and instead dangling the long-term deal that Harper reportedly wanted.
“It is unclear if the Dodgers now are offering a 10-year deal. They originally were reported to only be interested in a short-term option, but since they are reportedly in the running, it could mean they are offering a long-term package,” the report noted. |
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epak
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:47 pm Post subject: |
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LBP, I feel like you're the wise old vet who's gone through the trenches and is trying to keep the rookie from going through the hardships you went through.  |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:58 pm Post subject: |
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| epak wrote: | | LBP, I feel like you're the wise old vet who's gone through the trenches and is trying to keep the rookie from going through the hardships you went through. |
hahah
Yeah, at this point, I'm just very very skeptical of this regime. I know when they first took over, they took on alot of payroll. But ever since they got Friedman, it's been very different.
I just can't see them coming out as the highest bidder. I'd be extremely surprised.
The only way for Friedman to sign one of these top guys is for the ownership group to give him a blank check and tell him to sign Rendon/Cole at all costs. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:13 pm Post subject: |
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| epak wrote: | | Quote: | Jorge Castillo
@jorgecastillo
As the Dodgers have indicated before, Roberts said Gavin Lux could see some time in the outfield next season. |
That's interesting.
If Turner ever needs to move to first, we can keep Muncy at 2nd.
And Lux going to the outfield also makes sense if the rumors about trading Joc are true. |
Yeah, trading Joc and moving Lux to the outfield makes sense. I think keeping Lux in AAA makes more sense.
Pollock is getting paid big $$, we should play him everyday instead of turning him into a platoon player. And a right handed platoon player gets to start about 50-60 games a year?
We're paying Pollock $12M next year. Let's try to get 120-130 starts from him if possible.
We paid him $13M last year and got 86 starts and 0.2 WAR out of him. Pretty bad ROI. |
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epak
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:00 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | epak wrote: | | LBP, I feel like you're the wise old vet who's gone through the trenches and is trying to keep the rookie from going through the hardships you went through. |
hahah
Yeah, at this point, I'm just very very skeptical of this regime. I know when they first took over, they took on alot of payroll. But ever since they got Friedman, it's been very different.
I just can't see them coming out as the highest bidder. I'd be extremely surprised.
The only way for Friedman to sign one of these top guys is for the ownership group to give him a blank check and tell him to sign Rendon/Cole at all costs. |
Yep. I tend to be on the optimistic side. And then just say "oh wells" if it doesn't work out 
| Quote: | Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Gerrit Cole sweepstakes appear to be heading toward the finish line. Dodgers, Yankees, Angels believed to be the leaders still. Would be major upset if he lands elsewhere. |
| Quote: | Michael J. Duarte
@michaeljduarte
Sources: #Dodgers are reportedly making a stronger push for Gerrit Cole than initially perceived. Offers are pouring in for GC, so things can change moment-to-moment. Team is still in on Anthony Rendon as well. |
Let the best offer win!  |
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epak
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | epak wrote: | | Quote: | Jorge Castillo
@jorgecastillo
As the Dodgers have indicated before, Roberts said Gavin Lux could see some time in the outfield next season. |
That's interesting.
If Turner ever needs to move to first, we can keep Muncy at 2nd.
And Lux going to the outfield also makes sense if the rumors about trading Joc are true. |
Yeah, trading Joc and moving Lux to the outfield makes sense. I think keeping Lux in AAA makes more sense.
Pollock is getting paid big $$, we should play him everyday instead of turning him into a platoon player. And a right handed platoon player gets to start about 50-60 games a year?
We're paying Pollock $12M next year. Let's try to get 120-130 starts from him if possible.
We paid him $13M last year and got 86 starts and 0.2 WAR out of him. Pretty bad ROI. |
If AJ could be the Arizona AJ of a few years back, he'd be awesome. Unfortunately, he's been injured the last 2 to 3 years? I think the Dodgers would welcome him playing over 100 games, but it's going to be about his body being healthy. |
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epak
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:31 pm Post subject: |
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We lost Cole to the Yankees
| Quote: | Los Angeles Times
@latimes
Breaking: Dodgers and Angels miss out on Gerrit Cole, who agrees to 9-year $324 million contract with the New York Yankees |
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lakersken80
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:34 pm Post subject: |
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That is a ridiculous contract.
I'm glad we missed out....
Also another reason to get your kid into baseball.... |
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epak
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:41 pm Post subject: |
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| lakersken80 wrote: | That is a ridiculous contract.
I'm glad we missed out....
Also another reason to get your kid into baseball.... |
You're gonna love giving MadBum $100 M |
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adkindo
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| Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Verducci claims Dodgers were "in the same ballpark" as the Yankees. Dodgers now looking to pivot to...Madison Bumgarner. |
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