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ribeye
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 Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:21 am Post subject: |
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| loslakersss wrote: | | ribeye wrote: |
The data said that Kershaw's worst inning, by far, was his first so his effectiveness as a reliever would have to be suspect.
1st inning 5.79
2nd inning 1.29
3rd inning 3.21
4th inning 2.89
5th inning 2.57
6th inning 2.08
7th inning 3.65 |
The data also said that Kershaw was excellent in relief appearances - I think this is the first time he had given up a run in relief. But we all knew this season that Kershaw always struggled in the beginning of a game before he settles in.
This is my issue with analytics - it never tells the whole story. So maybe Dave thought "hey CK is nails as a reliever, look at his stats" and never thought "well this year he has struggle in his 1st inning so maybe this isn't the best idea". Game feel and the eye test are important because stats never tell the whole story. |
I hardly think one inning in 2019 even approaches a small and insignificant sample size. Also, he had given up 1 ER in 2 inn in post season as best I can tell at a glance. Lastly, Kersh, no longer a power pitcher as are most crucial situation relievers, is now a finesse pitcher. Putting it all on the line with a finesse pitcher, unfamiliar with relieving, who has problems in the first inning when starting? |
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oasisdude77
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| Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:42 am Post subject: |
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| audioaxes wrote: | | I guess if its any consolation, the Nats are looking like an unbeatable team while the Dodgers were a few outs from eliminating them. |
We were 'not using Kershaw in game 5' away from being in the damn WS again. Still annoyed man... |
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loslakersss
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| Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:37 am Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | | loslakersss wrote: | | ribeye wrote: |
The data said that Kershaw's worst inning, by far, was his first so his effectiveness as a reliever would have to be suspect.
1st inning 5.79
2nd inning 1.29
3rd inning 3.21
4th inning 2.89
5th inning 2.57
6th inning 2.08
7th inning 3.65 |
The data also said that Kershaw was excellent in relief appearances - I think this is the first time he had given up a run in relief. But we all knew this season that Kershaw always struggled in the beginning of a game before he settles in.
This is my issue with analytics - it never tells the whole story. So maybe Dave thought "hey CK is nails as a reliever, look at his stats" and never thought "well this year he has struggle in his 1st inning so maybe this isn't the best idea". Game feel and the eye test are important because stats never tell the whole story. |
I hardly think one inning in 2019 even approaches a small and insignificant sample size. Also, he had given up 1 ER in 2 inn in post season as best I can tell at a glance. Lastly, Kersh, no longer a power pitcher as are most crucial situation relievers, is now a finesse pitcher. Putting it all on the line with a finesse pitcher, unfamiliar with relieving, who has problems in the first inning when starting? |
I wasn't disagreeing with you. Rather I was criticizing the team's reliance on analytics when we could both see that the Kershaw move was a bad move and somehow they couldn't or wouldn't. They just chose to disregard the stats that proved that it was a bad move (the ones you provided above) and went with stats that supported their decision. |
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DrWolf
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| Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:43 pm Post subject: |
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| oasisdude77 wrote: | | audioaxes wrote: | | I guess if its any consolation, the Nats are looking like an unbeatable team while the Dodgers were a few outs from eliminating them. |
We were 'not using Kershaw in game 5' away from being in the damn WS again. Still annoyed man... |
I think the entire dodger brass is sharp to using kershaw in any other playoff situation other being a bench warmer. I would still use him as a starter in my regular season rotation but i wouldnt even include him on the 25 man playoff roster. the ONLY situation i would bring him out is if we are leading 3-0 in a WS clinching game and were up 5 plus runs at the bottom of the ninth to get the last out (just as consolation)
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loslakersss
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| Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:41 pm Post subject: |
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The thing with Kershaw is he's still pretty good in the playoffs until he gets in high leverage situations. So I'd still start him whenever as the #2 or #3 guy. But you've got to know that when the other team starts to get him on the ropes you need to throw the towel otherwise he's gonna be Ivan Drago'd every time.
Once he hits around 85-90 pitches you need to evaluate him batter-by-batter. All of his failures come from a manager leaving him to clean up his own mess. Whether it be letting 2 to 3 runners on before giving up the big homer or double that swings the game or giving up a solo shot in a close game. Had he been on a "one hit/run and you're out" rule then we'd have won a lot more games from 2014 til now. Probably would have had a title or two also.
And at this point it's all psychological. After a few years of Mattingly leaving him out there to fail he knew he had a reputation. So now he's trying to shake that while already pitching in big games and high leverage situations. It's too much pressure. Then Roberts comes and makes even more idiotic moves with him. Sure, if he made the right pitches he never would have this problem but he was set up for failure when Donny was using him on short rest to begin with and then the pressure has snowballed his entire career. I really do feel bad for the guy because he 'choker' reputation is all he's going to be remembered for. |
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oasisdude77
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| Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:11 pm Post subject: |
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| loslakersss wrote: | The thing with Kershaw is he's still pretty good in the playoffs until he gets in high leverage situations. So I'd still start him whenever as the #2 or #3 guy. But you've got to know that when the other team starts to get him on the ropes you need to throw the towel otherwise he's gonna be Ivan Drago'd every time.
Once he hits around 85-90 pitches you need to evaluate him batter-by-batter. All of his failures come from a manager leaving him to clean up his own mess. Whether it be letting 2 to 3 runners on before giving up the big homer or double that swings the game or giving up a solo shot in a close game. Had he been on a "one hit/run and you're out" rule then we'd have won a lot more games from 2014 til now. Probably would have had a title or two also.
And at this point it's all psychological. After a few years of Mattingly leaving him out there to fail he knew he had a reputation. So now he's trying to shake that while already pitching in big games and high leverage situations. It's too much pressure. Then Roberts comes and makes even more idiotic moves with him. Sure, if he made the right pitches he never would have this problem but he was set up for failure when Donny was using him on short rest to begin with and then the pressure has snowballed his entire career. I really do feel bad for the guy because he 'choker' reputation is all he's going to be remembered for. |
Thing is, when Donny would leave him in too long or pitch him on short rest, I think it was more out of necessity over anything as our other options weren't as good as Kershaw.
Now though, he is far from our best option so the fact that he keeps getting put out there is pretty maddening. |
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LakerLanny
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| Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:25 pm Post subject: |
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| DrWolf wrote: | | Gotta admit, seeing the Nationals make the WS was tough to swallow. I'll never understand how this collapse happened and Dodger fans have to bear the brunt of it. |
Obviously they should have won the series.
Not starting Ryu at Dodger Stadium in Game 1 or 2 was a mistake. The Kershaw relief appearance felt desperate and like trying to force a square peg into a round hole.
Dave Roberts needs to stop changing things so drastically in the playoffs, his horrid overmanaging is killing us. Last year he was all of the sudden in love with the "Jansen 2 inning save" when he has been a 1 inning closer his entire career and all season.
Just terrible mismanagement by a butcher at Manager.
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JerryWest_44
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| Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:48 pm Post subject: |
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| LakerLanny wrote: | | DrWolf wrote: | | Gotta admit, seeing the Nationals make the WS was tough to swallow. I'll never understand how this collapse happened and Dodger fans have to bear the brunt of it. |
Obviously they should have won the series.
Not starting Ryu at Dodger Stadium in Game 1 or 2 was a mistake. The Kershaw relief appearance felt desperate and like trying to force a square peg into a round hole.
Dave Roberts needs to stop changing things so drastically in the playoffs, his horrid overmanaging is killing us. Last year he was all of the sudden in love with the "Jansen 2 inning save" when he has been a 1 inning closer his entire career and all season.
Just terrible mismanagement by a butcher at Manager. |
Very surprised Roberts remains at the helm. Kershaw starting game 2 and Kershaw relieving in game 5 were monumental gaffes. I suspect if the Dodgers start slow next season Roberts is gone...
With only 1 Ace next year with Ryu headed for a payday do we go after Cole? |
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Surfitall
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| Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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| The Nats are a buzzsaw. They deserve to be where they are. Roberts definitely makes mistakes in the playoffs and it’s frustrating, but the Nats are really something. |
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ChickenStu
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Location: Anaheim, CA
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| Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:04 pm Post subject: |
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| JerryWest_44 wrote: | | LakerLanny wrote: | | DrWolf wrote: | | Gotta admit, seeing the Nationals make the WS was tough to swallow. I'll never understand how this collapse happened and Dodger fans have to bear the brunt of it. |
Obviously they should have won the series.
Not starting Ryu at Dodger Stadium in Game 1 or 2 was a mistake. The Kershaw relief appearance felt desperate and like trying to force a square peg into a round hole.
Dave Roberts needs to stop changing things so drastically in the playoffs, his horrid overmanaging is killing us. Last year he was all of the sudden in love with the "Jansen 2 inning save" when he has been a 1 inning closer his entire career and all season.
Just terrible mismanagement by a butcher at Manager. |
Very surprised Roberts remains at the helm. Kershaw starting game 2 and Kershaw relieving in game 5 were monumental gaffes. I suspect if the Dodgers start slow next season Roberts is gone...
With only 1 Ace next year with Ryu headed for a payday do we go after Cole? |
I would. |
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AD23
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| Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Surfitall wrote: | | The Nats are a buzzsaw. They deserve to be where they are. Roberts definitely makes mistakes in the playoffs and it’s frustrating, but the Nats are really something. |
Looking like a team of destiny |
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jonnybravo
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| Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2019 12:35 am Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | | JerryWest_44 wrote: | | LakerLanny wrote: | | DrWolf wrote: | | Gotta admit, seeing the Nationals make the WS was tough to swallow. I'll never understand how this collapse happened and Dodger fans have to bear the brunt of it. |
Obviously they should have won the series.
Not starting Ryu at Dodger Stadium in Game 1 or 2 was a mistake. The Kershaw relief appearance felt desperate and like trying to force a square peg into a round hole.
Dave Roberts needs to stop changing things so drastically in the playoffs, his horrid overmanaging is killing us. Last year he was all of the sudden in love with the "Jansen 2 inning save" when he has been a 1 inning closer his entire career and all season.
Just terrible mismanagement by a butcher at Manager. |
Very surprised Roberts remains at the helm. Kershaw starting game 2 and Kershaw relieving in game 5 were monumental gaffes. I suspect if the Dodgers start slow next season Roberts is gone...
With only 1 Ace next year with Ryu headed for a payday do we go after Cole? |
I would. |
Absolutely have to imo.
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:00 am Post subject: |
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| jonnybravo wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | JerryWest_44 wrote: | | LakerLanny wrote: | | DrWolf wrote: | | Gotta admit, seeing the Nationals make the WS was tough to swallow. I'll never understand how this collapse happened and Dodger fans have to bear the brunt of it. |
Obviously they should have won the series.
Not starting Ryu at Dodger Stadium in Game 1 or 2 was a mistake. The Kershaw relief appearance felt desperate and like trying to force a square peg into a round hole.
Dave Roberts needs to stop changing things so drastically in the playoffs, his horrid overmanaging is killing us. Last year he was all of the sudden in love with the "Jansen 2 inning save" when he has been a 1 inning closer his entire career and all season.
Just terrible mismanagement by a butcher at Manager. |
Very surprised Roberts remains at the helm. Kershaw starting game 2 and Kershaw relieving in game 5 were monumental gaffes. I suspect if the Dodgers start slow next season Roberts is gone...
With only 1 Ace next year with Ryu headed for a payday do we go after Cole? |
I would. |
Absolutely have to imo. |
Cole will sign the biggest contract ever for a pitcher.
There will be a bidding war between many suitors and Cole will go to the highest bidder.
If we end up being the highest bidder I would be shocked.
This FO has never engaged in a bidding war and come out on top.
We even lost the bidding war for Kenley Jansen to the Marlins. It was up to Jansen to come back to us and try and negotiate a deal comperable to what the Marlins offered him. |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:10 am Post subject: |
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^
I thought it was the Nats that actually had the highest bid for Jansen. But yes, you're right, we ended up coming up to just about $2-3MM less in total.
You're right that Cole will almost certainly go to the highest bidder, unless he has his heart set on one place where the offer is just about comparable, similar to how Jansen returned to us in the example above. We can rule out most teams, since this is going to be a mega-contract that almost certainly exceeds $200MM in value. Here's a brief synopsis of how I see it...
Teams we can rule out: D'backs, Rockies, Pirates, Brewers, Reds, Marlins, Mets, A's, Mariners, Indians, Royals, Tigers, Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays. That's half of the league.
Longshots
Giants: They have the money if they wanted to do something--recall that they were seriously in on Harper last offseason--but it appears they are going to undertake a rebuild
Phillies: Of course he would help a team that fancies itself as a contender, and Arrieta does expire after 2020, but it still seems farfetched after their spending spree last winter
Braves: Doesn't feel like they would have that in the budget
Nationals: Only if Rendon walks and if Strasburg walks; if so, then who knows
Rangers: Splashy new signing as they move into their new ballpark? They did pay A-Rod once upon a time!
Red Sox: Seems like they want to shed payroll, not add to it, and after locking up Sale, just seems very unlikely
Within the realm of possibility
Dodgers: He and Buehler would be a lethal combo in a postseason series, but the Dodgers may not want to go into the luxury tax or give one player a mega-deal
Padres: While they just gave Machado mega-money, they have spent virtually nothing on pitching, and they have an up-and-coming team
Cubs: They no longer have an ace, and they failed to spend last winter and they missed the postseason
Cardinals: Seems unlikely at first glance, as they just gave Goldschmidt a big deal, but if Wainwright departs/retires and if they let Ozuna walk, maybe they have the budget for another big deal
Astros: While most think he will be allowed to walk, their management has been aggressive recently, so who knows if they decide he's a player they can't afford to lose
Angels: if Cole is swayed by SoCal, the Angels arguably need him more than the Dodgers do just to be competitive, and we've seen Moreno spend big before
Twins: They have money to spend, a good team, and you know how you end a 16-game winless streak in the postseason? Yeah. This is actually one of my favorite fits that most wouldn't consider.
White Sox: They were in on Machado last year, so a splashy signing can't be ruled out. Cole and Giolito would get them relevant very quickly, and they have a lot of prospects in the pipeline.
Yankees: They've wanted to stay under the luxury tax like the Dodgers, but if the Astros get past them in the ALCS in 2 of the last 3 years, ownership may bite the bullet. Could see them try to get off the Stanton contract if they went for Cole. |
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Dr. Funkbot
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| Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:16 am Post subject: |
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| LakerLanny wrote: | | DrWolf wrote: | | Gotta admit, seeing the Nationals make the WS was tough to swallow. I'll never understand how this collapse happened and Dodger fans have to bear the brunt of it. |
Obviously they should have won the series.
Not starting Ryu at Dodger Stadium in Game 1 or 2 was a mistake. The Kershaw relief appearance felt desperate and like trying to force a square peg into a round hole.
Dave Roberts needs to stop changing things so drastically in the playoffs, his horrid overmanaging is killing us. Last year he was all of the sudden in love with the "Jansen 2 inning save" when he has been a 1 inning closer his entire career and all season.
Just terrible mismanagement by a butcher at Manager. |
What about continuing to trot out guys who are just guaranteed outs like Pollack this season, Grandal last season and Granderson the season before? All the while better players come of the bench like Kike, Joc, and last year Barnes.
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loslakersss
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| Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:18 am Post subject: |
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| Dr. Funkbot wrote: | | LakerLanny wrote: | | DrWolf wrote: | | Gotta admit, seeing the Nationals make the WS was tough to swallow. I'll never understand how this collapse happened and Dodger fans have to bear the brunt of it. |
Obviously they should have won the series.
Not starting Ryu at Dodger Stadium in Game 1 or 2 was a mistake. The Kershaw relief appearance felt desperate and like trying to force a square peg into a round hole.
Dave Roberts needs to stop changing things so drastically in the playoffs, his horrid overmanaging is killing us. Last year he was all of the sudden in love with the "Jansen 2 inning save" when he has been a 1 inning closer his entire career and all season.
Just terrible mismanagement by a butcher at Manager. |
What about continuing to trot out guys who are just guaranteed outs like Pollack this season, Grandal last season and Granderson the season before? All the while better players come of the bench like Kike, Joc, and last year Barnes. |
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oasisdude77
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jonnybravo
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| Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:43 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | ^
I thought it was the Nats that actually had the highest bid for Jansen. But yes, you're right, we ended up coming up to just about $2-3MM less in total.
You're right that Cole will almost certainly go to the highest bidder, unless he has his heart set on one place where the offer is just about comparable, similar to how Jansen returned to us in the example above. We can rule out most teams, since this is going to be a mega-contract that almost certainly exceeds $200MM in value. Here's a brief synopsis of how I see it...
Teams we can rule out: D'backs, Rockies, Pirates, Brewers, Reds, Marlins, Mets, A's, Mariners, Indians, Royals, Tigers, Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays. That's half of the league.
Longshots
Giants: They have the money if they wanted to do something--recall that they were seriously in on Harper last offseason--but it appears they are going to undertake a rebuild
Phillies: Of course he would help a team that fancies itself as a contender, and Arrieta does expire after 2020, but it still seems farfetched after their spending spree last winter
Braves: Doesn't feel like they would have that in the budget
Nationals: Only if Rendon walks and if Strasburg walks; if so, then who knows
Rangers: Splashy new signing as they move into their new ballpark? They did pay A-Rod once upon a time!
Red Sox: Seems like they want to shed payroll, not add to it, and after locking up Sale, just seems very unlikely
Within the realm of possibility
Dodgers: He and Buehler would be a lethal combo in a postseason series, but the Dodgers may not want to go into the luxury tax or give one player a mega-deal
Padres: While they just gave Machado mega-money, they have spent virtually nothing on pitching, and they have an up-and-coming team
Cubs: They no longer have an ace, and they failed to spend last winter and they missed the postseason
Cardinals: Seems unlikely at first glance, as they just gave Goldschmidt a big deal, but if Wainwright departs/retires and if they let Ozuna walk, maybe they have the budget for another big deal
Astros: While most think he will be allowed to walk, their management has been aggressive recently, so who knows if they decide he's a player they can't afford to lose
Angels: if Cole is swayed by SoCal, the Angels arguably need him more than the Dodgers do just to be competitive, and we've seen Moreno spend big before
Twins: They have money to spend, a good team, and you know how you end a 16-game winless streak in the postseason? Yeah. This is actually one of my favorite fits that most wouldn't consider.
White Sox: They were in on Machado last year, so a splashy signing can't be ruled out. Cole and Giolito would get them relevant very quickly, and they have a lot of prospects in the pipeline.
Yankees: They've wanted to stay under the luxury tax like the Dodgers, but if the Astros get past them in the ALCS in 2 of the last 3 years, ownership may bite the bullet. Could see them try to get off the Stanton contract if they went for Cole. |
Seems like the Angels would be the favorites if they wanted him imo. Moreno's already proven he'll back up the Brinks truck for a big name if need be.
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:58 pm Post subject: |
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^
I don't know if Vegas has any odds for Cole's next team, but my pick would probably be the Yankees. I don't think their ownership will like that the Astros will have beaten them in 2 of the past 3 ALCS series if this result holds up (Yankees are up 4-1 in the 2nd inning of Game 5 right now as they try to force a Game 6), we know they have more money than any other team, and if they decide to go back into the luxury tax, well, they can outbid anyone. The Twins are my lurking team because their payroll is so low and they can give him a blank check while still staying well under the luxury tax. Angels make sense. Dodgers make sense (though I personally don't think Friedman will go there). White Sox make sense too, even though they aren't as good as the Twins. But they have the money and they may not be far away from contending. |
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lakersken80
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| Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:47 am Post subject: |
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| Hindsight is 20/20 but Dodgers not trading for Justin Verlander is probably why the Dodgers won't be winning a World Series anytime soon and why the Astros are a World Series regular now. The front office wanted to save a couple of bucks at the time but in the end the downside was that it costed them time, money and effort. |
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ribeye
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| Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:55 am Post subject: |
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| lakersken80 wrote: | | Hindsight is 20/20 but Dodgers not trading for Justin Verlander is probably why the Dodgers won't be winning a World Series anytime soon and why the Astros are a World Series regular now. The front office wanted to save a couple of bucks at the time but in the end the downside was that it costed them time, money and effort. |
Let's wait and see how he does this year in the World Series. So far, he is 0-4 with a 5.67 ERA. |
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jonnybravo
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| Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:09 pm Post subject: |
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| lakersken80 wrote: | | Hindsight is 20/20 but Dodgers not trading for Justin Verlander is probably why the Dodgers won't be winning a World Series anytime soon and why the Astros are a World Series regular now. The front office wanted to save a couple of bucks at the time but in the end the downside was that it costed them time, money and effort. |
I've been as critical about the FO as the next person but given the information available at the time, going for Darvish made sense. You had an aging pitcher in his mid 30's that appeared to be on the decline with multiple, EXPENSIVE years to boot. Not a person saw Verlander returning to his Cy Young form literally the moment he set foot on the tarmac in Houston.
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DrWolf
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| Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:11 pm Post subject: |
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| lakersken80 wrote: | | Hindsight is 20/20 but Dodgers not trading for Justin Verlander is probably why the Dodgers won't be winning a World Series anytime soon and why the Astros are a World Series regular now. The front office wanted to save a couple of bucks at the time but in the end the downside was that it costed them time, money and effort. |
I think your being a little too drastic. Number 1, we went to 2 WS back-to-back. If memory serves me right the Atlanta Braves made it 2 years in a row, and 3rd year they fell short of making it. They came back in 95 to win the WS. The winning formula is there, just gotta add and subtract pieces to make it happen.
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JerryWest_44
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| Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:13 pm Post subject: |
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| lakersken80 wrote: | | Hindsight is 20/20 but Dodgers not trading for Justin Verlander is probably why the Dodgers won't be winning a World Series anytime soon and why the Astros are a World Series regular now. The front office wanted to save a couple of bucks at the time but in the end the downside was that it costed them time, money and effort. |
That was pivotal miss & they know it -- time to correct it by signing Cole otherwise we just have Buehler and a bunch of playoff pitcher hacks |
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lakersken80
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| Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:21 pm Post subject: |
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| DrWolf wrote: | | lakersken80 wrote: | | Hindsight is 20/20 but Dodgers not trading for Justin Verlander is probably why the Dodgers won't be winning a World Series anytime soon and why the Astros are a World Series regular now. The front office wanted to save a couple of bucks at the time but in the end the downside was that it costed them time, money and effort. |
I think your being a little too drastic. Number 1, we went to 2 WS back-to-back. If memory serves me right the Atlanta Braves made it 2 years in a row, and 3rd year they fell short of making it. They came back in 95 to win the WS. The winning formula is there, just gotta add and subtract pieces to make it happen. |
The Braves made the World Series 5 times that decade, and won it once....regardless, they were still much more successful than the Dodgers. There is no guarantee this team will ever win a World Series with the current makeup, especially if we keep repeating the same mistakes in the off season/trade deadline. |
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