Joined: 25 Apr 2015 Posts: 31912 Location: Anaheim, CA
Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:49 pm Post subject:
Yeah, compared to the 2017 team, this bullpen isn't close to as good, and this year's lineup is much better. Bellinger is a legit superstar this season, we have Muncy now, we have Verdugo now, and Freese is killing it off the bench in a part-time role (as opposed to the last remnants of Chase Utley). Sure, maybe Turner isn't quite as good and maybe the same for Seager, but overall I think our lineup is tougher. Also, we didn't have Buehler as a starter then for the playoffs, and Ryu wasn't this good (he wasn't even on the postseason roster in '17, as I recall).
Still, the bullpen is clearly worse. I have no doubt that management will address the bullpen at the deadline, but if they don't do something major, this team will not win the World Series. At least, short of Urias being used in the bullpen in the postseason.
While I am not happy with the Dodgers bullpen like everyone else, where I differ is that I see it in perspective.
All bullpens pretty much suck this year. The league average is 4.56.
The NL leader, a sub five-hundred club is SF at 3.86. The Dodgers are fourth, at 4.08 -- .22 beyond. Of the teams the Dodgers are likely to face in the NL playoffs, the only likely opponent with a better bullpen ERA is ATL at 3.93, barely better--but their starters suck as they have an ERA of 4.54, compared to the Dodgers, 3.03.
This does not mean that the team should be idle as I don't think Kenley (at least up to this point) is up to closing for a WS contender, and despite all this recent love for Baez, he is no better. It seems different expectations (Kenley's past as a top closer and Baez's past as mediocre) result in skewed evaluations.
I wish we knew what is up with Kenley. As I said before, the rhythm of his delivery, his mechanics, just don't look right, and it shows with the loss of velocity. Is it in his head or in his arm? Why doesn't he throw more sliders when it is such a nasty pitch? Why does Roberts defend him so? What does Roberts know?
Then there is Urias. He has been nasty as a reliever yet they won't use him in save situations unless Kenley is unavailable. I'm on record that I believe he's babied by the team, which could be a factor that hurts the team's chances for a WS win. OK, keep his innings down, fine, but does that mean he can't pitch an inning every two or three days to see how he does in the role of the closer? _________________ "A metronome keeps time by using a Ringo"
While I am not happy with the Dodgers bullpen like everyone else, where I differ is that I see it in perspective.
All bullpens pretty much suck this year. The league average is 4.56.
The NL leader, a sub five-hundred club is SF at 3.86. The Dodgers are fourth, at 4.08 -- .22 beyond. Of the teams the Dodgers are likely to face in the NL playoffs, the only likely opponent with a better bullpen ERA is ATL at 3.93, barely better--but their starters suck as they have an ERA of 4.54, compared to the Dodgers, 3.03.
This does not mean that the team should be idle as I don't think Kenley (at least up to this point) is up to closing for a WS contender, and despite all this recent love for Baez, he is no better. It seems different expectations (Kenley's past as a top closer and Baez's past as mediocre) result in skewed evaluations.
I wish we knew what is up with Kenley. As I said before, the rhythm of his delivery, his mechanics, just don't look right, and it shows with the loss of velocity. Is it in his head or in his arm? Why doesn't he throw more sliders when it is such a nasty pitch? Why does Roberts defend him so? What does Roberts know?
Then there is Urias. He has been nasty as a reliever yet they won't use him in save situations unless Kenley is unavailable. I'm on record that I believe he's babied by the team, which could be a factor that hurts the team's chances for a WS win. OK, keep his innings down, fine, but does that mean he can't pitch an inning every two or three days to see how he does in the role of the closer?
The problem is that, once you get into a battle of mediocre bullpens, it becomes a crapshoot.
And that's no way to win a WS.
Yeah, you can say everybody else has a mediocre bullpen as well. But, whoever wins the WS is the team whose mediocre bullpen performed well in the playoffs. Will that be us?
We just played the Phillies in 4 games. We're clearly the better team. But, we ended up tied 2-2? Why? Cuz the Phillies were able to win 2 games in the battle of mediocre bullpens.
And this could be how it is in the playoffs.
The Red Sox last yr entering the playoffs had a mediocre bullpen. Then everyone performed well in the playoffs.
Whichever team wins the WS this yr will have a bullpen that performed well in the playoffs. Will it be us?
If our bullpen continues to have a 4.08 ERA in the bullpen, it'd be hard to imagine us ending up as the WS champs.
Yeah, compared to the 2017 team, this bullpen isn't close to as good, and this year's lineup is much better. Bellinger is a legit superstar this season, we have Muncy now, we have Verdugo now, and Freese is killing it off the bench in a part-time role (as opposed to the last remnants of Chase Utley). Sure, maybe Turner isn't quite as good and maybe the same for Seager, but overall I think our lineup is tougher. Also, we didn't have Buehler as a starter then for the playoffs, and Ryu wasn't this good (he wasn't even on the postseason roster in '17, as I recall).
Still, the bullpen is clearly worse. I have no doubt that management will address the bullpen at the deadline, but if they don't do something major, this team will not win the World Series. At least, short of Urias being used in the bullpen in the postseason.
Yeah, I remember going into the WS that yr, our bullpen was lights out. I don't think the Cubs scored a run off of us in the NLCS.
We had the no. 1 bullpen. The narrative was that if we got into a battle of the bullpens, we had the advantage.
I think Houston's bullpen ended up outperforming ours that yr. I think that was a surprise to everyone.
I think the only one that didn't perform for them was their closer. Everyone else was lights out iirc.
While I am not happy with the Dodgers bullpen like everyone else, where I differ is that I see it in perspective.
All bullpens pretty much suck this year. The league average is 4.56.
The NL leader, a sub five-hundred club is SF at 3.86. The Dodgers are fourth, at 4.08 -- .22 beyond. Of the teams the Dodgers are likely to face in the NL playoffs, the only likely opponent with a better bullpen ERA is ATL at 3.93, barely better--but their starters suck as they have an ERA of 4.54, compared to the Dodgers, 3.03.
This does not mean that the team should be idle as I don't think Kenley (at least up to this point) is up to closing for a WS contender, and despite all this recent love for Baez, he is no better. It seems different expectations (Kenley's past as a top closer and Baez's past as mediocre) result in skewed evaluations.
I wish we knew what is up with Kenley. As I said before, the rhythm of his delivery, his mechanics, just don't look right, and it shows with the loss of velocity. Is it in his head or in his arm? Why doesn't he throw more sliders when it is such a nasty pitch? Why does Roberts defend him so? What does Roberts know?
Then there is Urias. He has been nasty as a reliever yet they won't use him in save situations unless Kenley is unavailable. I'm on record that I believe he's babied by the team, which could be a factor that hurts the team's chances for a WS win. OK, keep his innings down, fine, but does that mean he can't pitch an inning every two or three days to see how he does in the role of the closer?
The problem is that, once you get into a battle of mediocre bullpens, it becomes a crapshoot.
And that's no way to win a WS.
Yeah, you can say everybody else has a mediocre bullpen as well. But, whoever wins the WS is the team whose mediocre bullpen performed well in the playoffs. Will that be us?
We just played the Phillies in 4 games. We're clearly the better team. But, we ended up tied 2-2? Why? Cuz the Phillies were able to win 2 games in the battle of mediocre bullpens.
And this could be how it is in the playoffs.
The Red Sox last yr entering the playoffs had a mediocre bullpen. Then everyone performed well in the playoffs.
Whichever team wins the WS this yr will have a bullpen that performed well in the playoffs. Will it be us?
If our bullpen continues to have a 4.08 ERA in the bullpen, it'd be hard to imagine us ending up as the WS champs.
That is why I included the first line of the fourth paragraph _________________ "A metronome keeps time by using a Ringo"
While I am not happy with the Dodgers bullpen like everyone else, where I differ is that I see it in perspective.
All bullpens pretty much suck this year. The league average is 4.56.
The NL leader, a sub five-hundred club is SF at 3.86. The Dodgers are fourth, at 4.08 -- .22 beyond. Of the teams the Dodgers are likely to face in the NL playoffs, the only likely opponent with a better bullpen ERA is ATL at 3.93, barely better--but their starters suck as they have an ERA of 4.54, compared to the Dodgers, 3.03.
This does not mean that the team should be idle as I don't think Kenley (at least up to this point) is up to closing for a WS contender, and despite all this recent love for Baez, he is no better. It seems different expectations (Kenley's past as a top closer and Baez's past as mediocre) result in skewed evaluations.
I wish we knew what is up with Kenley. As I said before, the rhythm of his delivery, his mechanics, just don't look right, and it shows with the loss of velocity. Is it in his head or in his arm? Why doesn't he throw more sliders when it is such a nasty pitch? Why does Roberts defend him so? What does Roberts know?
Then there is Urias. He has been nasty as a reliever yet they won't use him in save situations unless Kenley is unavailable. I'm on record that I believe he's babied by the team, which could be a factor that hurts the team's chances for a WS win. OK, keep his innings down, fine, but does that mean he can't pitch an inning every two or three days to see how he does in the role of the closer?
The problem is that, once you get into a battle of mediocre bullpens, it becomes a crapshoot.
And that's no way to win a WS.
Yeah, you can say everybody else has a mediocre bullpen as well. But, whoever wins the WS is the team whose mediocre bullpen performed well in the playoffs. Will that be us?
We just played the Phillies in 4 games. We're clearly the better team. But, we ended up tied 2-2? Why? Cuz the Phillies were able to win 2 games in the battle of mediocre bullpens.
And this could be how it is in the playoffs.
The Red Sox last yr entering the playoffs had a mediocre bullpen. Then everyone performed well in the playoffs.
Whichever team wins the WS this yr will have a bullpen that performed well in the playoffs. Will it be us?
If our bullpen continues to have a 4.08 ERA in the bullpen, it'd be hard to imagine us ending up as the WS champs.
That is why I included the first line of the fourth paragraph
Yup, we're going to have to get lucky in the playoffs if our bullpen ERA is still 4.08.
We'd need them to give up runs when we have a big lead like 8-2 and just completely shut it down when we're up 1-0.
That's the best case scenario and it's just random luck.
Joined: 10 Jul 2009 Posts: 12161 Location: Bay Area
Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2019 12:46 pm Post subject:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
JerryWest_44 wrote:
ribeye wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
We lost both games due to our 2 biggest weaknesses: Relief pitching and atrocious infield defense
Anyone seeing a parallel, though not for all the same reasons, to the 2017 team? That team got off an incredible start, on pace to set the record, then, a little further into the season than we are now, went 13-22 over the last 35 games, and missed the promiced land when their two pitching stars did not deliver.
Our starting picture is about the same -- our bullpen is in tatters. The top teams in the West and East will eat our bullpen alive. If we don't shore the bullpen/closers we are doomed to copy the Buffalo Bills & Minnesota Vikings
I don't know how many good/great relievers we need for a WS series run, but right now, we only have 2 really good ones:
Urias and Baez.
Our biggest problem is, we won't demote Jansen. That's our biggest issue. Jansen's going to blow probably 2-3 games in the playoffs. That means, instead of winning 4 games, we might have to win 5 games.
If you look back at our last 12 years, most of our playoff failures can be attributed to our bullpen.
Whether it be: Broxton, Blanton, Baez, Jansen, Madson, McCarthy, and whoever else I can't remember.
Our bullpen's continually failed us in the playoffs.
Think you underestimate Kelly. He will be Morrow-esque for us, let's just hope his arm doesn't fall off in the WS like Brandon's did
Joined: 25 Apr 2015 Posts: 31912 Location: Anaheim, CA
Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2019 12:49 pm Post subject:
Cutheon wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
JerryWest_44 wrote:
ribeye wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
We lost both games due to our 2 biggest weaknesses: Relief pitching and atrocious infield defense
Anyone seeing a parallel, though not for all the same reasons, to the 2017 team? That team got off an incredible start, on pace to set the record, then, a little further into the season than we are now, went 13-22 over the last 35 games, and missed the promiced land when their two pitching stars did not deliver.
Our starting picture is about the same -- our bullpen is in tatters. The top teams in the West and East will eat our bullpen alive. If we don't shore the bullpen/closers we are doomed to copy the Buffalo Bills & Minnesota Vikings
I don't know how many good/great relievers we need for a WS series run, but right now, we only have 2 really good ones:
Urias and Baez.
Our biggest problem is, we won't demote Jansen. That's our biggest issue. Jansen's going to blow probably 2-3 games in the playoffs. That means, instead of winning 4 games, we might have to win 5 games.
If you look back at our last 12 years, most of our playoff failures can be attributed to our bullpen.
Whether it be: Broxton, Blanton, Baez, Jansen, Madson, McCarthy, and whoever else I can't remember.
Our bullpen's continually failed us in the playoffs.
Think you underestimate Kelly. He will be Morrow-esque for us, let's just hope his arm doesn't fall off in the WS like Brandon's did
I mean, we used Morrow in literally every game. It wasn't even his fault. We knew we weren't going to re-sign him and we used him up lol.
We lost both games due to our 2 biggest weaknesses: Relief pitching and atrocious infield defense
Anyone seeing a parallel, though not for all the same reasons, to the 2017 team? That team got off an incredible start, on pace to set the record, then, a little further into the season than we are now, went 13-22 over the last 35 games, and missed the promiced land when their two pitching stars did not deliver.
Our starting picture is about the same -- our bullpen is in tatters. The top teams in the West and East will eat our bullpen alive. If we don't shore the bullpen/closers we are doomed to copy the Buffalo Bills & Minnesota Vikings
I don't know how many good/great relievers we need for a WS series run, but right now, we only have 2 really good ones:
Urias and Baez.
Our biggest problem is, we won't demote Jansen. That's our biggest issue. Jansen's going to blow probably 2-3 games in the playoffs. That means, instead of winning 4 games, we might have to win 5 games.
If you look back at our last 12 years, most of our playoff failures can be attributed to our bullpen.
Whether it be: Broxton, Blanton, Baez, Jansen, Madson, McCarthy, and whoever else I can't remember.
Our bullpen's continually failed us in the playoffs.
Think you underestimate Kelly. He will be Morrow-esque for us, let's just hope his arm doesn't fall off in the WS like Brandon's did
Well if I'm underestimating Kelly, let's hope I'm wrong.
I can't count him as a known commodity right now, but I do hope I'm wrong.
That's good that you're counting him as a known commodity. If everybody had your confidence, Joe Kelly would probably be the most trusted 5.29 ERA reliever in the history of mlb.
^ FWIW his ERA is 1.72 over his last 15 games (3.72 over the last 30). He does seem to be improving. I feel a lot better about him going forward. And I would take him 10/10 in save situations over KJ.
^ FWIW his ERA is 1.72 over his last 15 games (3.72 over the last 30). He does seem to be improving. I feel a lot better about him going forward. And I would take him 10/10 in save situations over KJ.
Yup. It's worth alot. I trust him more than Jansen right now.
We can hope we get the same Kelly that the Dodgers' have had since May 28th, where he's had a 1.62 ERA, or even better that guy who often made the Dodgers look bad in last year's WS, and not the guy with a 5.29 ERA.
And/or we can hope we see vintage Kenley return, or the Jekyll Baez we saw briefly, and not his Hyde persona: that horrible Hyde persona where he's had four save opportunities and blown all four, and going back to his rookie season, he's had fourteen save opportunities in his career, and blown every single one. He is one of a very few whose save percentage can be easily determined in our heads.
And/or we can hope the Dodgers want to try Urias as the closer and we can hope he does well, and we can hope management let's him pitch often enough in that role to become accustomed to it.
And/or we can hope some team wants to reasonable with a trade for another closer, or at least a solid arm for the bully.
This is when management needs to step up and be at the top of their game.
We'll see. _________________ "A metronome keeps time by using a Ringo"
While I am not happy with the Dodgers bullpen like everyone else, where I differ is that I see it in perspective.
All bullpens pretty much suck this year. The league average is 4.56.
The NL leader, a sub five-hundred club is SF at 3.86. The Dodgers are fourth, at 4.08 -- .22 beyond. Of the teams the Dodgers are likely to face in the NL playoffs, the only likely opponent with a better bullpen ERA is ATL at 3.93, barely better--but their starters suck as they have an ERA of 4.54, compared to the Dodgers, 3.03.
This does not mean that the team should be idle as I don't think Kenley (at least up to this point) is up to closing for a WS contender, and despite all this recent love for Baez, he is no better. It seems different expectations (Kenley's past as a top closer and Baez's past as mediocre) result in skewed evaluations.
I wish we knew what is up with Kenley. As I said before, the rhythm of his delivery, his mechanics, just don't look right, and it shows with the loss of velocity. Is it in his head or in his arm? Why doesn't he throw more sliders when it is such a nasty pitch? Why does Roberts defend him so? What does Roberts know?
Then there is Urias. He has been nasty as a reliever yet they won't use him in save situations unless Kenley is unavailable. I'm on record that I believe he's babied by the team, which could be a factor that hurts the team's chances for a WS win. OK, keep his innings down, fine, but does that mean he can't pitch an inning every two or three days to see how he does in the role of the closer?
The problem is that, once you get into a battle of mediocre bullpens, it becomes a crapshoot.
And that's no way to win a WS.
Yeah, you can say everybody else has a mediocre bullpen as well. But, whoever wins the WS is the team whose mediocre bullpen performed well in the playoffs. Will that be us?
We just played the Phillies in 4 games. We're clearly the better team. But, we ended up tied 2-2? Why? Cuz the Phillies were able to win 2 games in the battle of mediocre bullpens.
And this could be how it is in the playoffs.
The Red Sox last yr entering the playoffs had a mediocre bullpen. Then everyone performed well in the playoffs.
Whichever team wins the WS this yr will have a bullpen that performed well in the playoffs. Will it be us?
If our bullpen continues to have a 4.08 ERA in the bullpen, it'd be hard to imagine us ending up as the WS champs.
You pretty much hit the nail on the head with regards to the WS winner the last few seasons. Everything just has to be clicking the right way for the bullpen to perform at the level that the Dodgers need to win it all. I do feel a lot more confident in the offense this year than in years past. The team seems to be producing quality at bats that they're gonna need in order to carry them forward to a title despite the bullpen woes.
While I am not happy with the Dodgers bullpen like everyone else, where I differ is that I see it in perspective.
All bullpens pretty much suck this year. The league average is 4.56.
The NL leader, a sub five-hundred club is SF at 3.86. The Dodgers are fourth, at 4.08 -- .22 beyond. Of the teams the Dodgers are likely to face in the NL playoffs, the only likely opponent with a better bullpen ERA is ATL at 3.93, barely better--but their starters suck as they have an ERA of 4.54, compared to the Dodgers, 3.03.
This does not mean that the team should be idle as I don't think Kenley (at least up to this point) is up to closing for a WS contender, and despite all this recent love for Baez, he is no better. It seems different expectations (Kenley's past as a top closer and Baez's past as mediocre) result in skewed evaluations.
I wish we knew what is up with Kenley. As I said before, the rhythm of his delivery, his mechanics, just don't look right, and it shows with the loss of velocity. Is it in his head or in his arm? Why doesn't he throw more sliders when it is such a nasty pitch? Why does Roberts defend him so? What does Roberts know?
Then there is Urias. He has been nasty as a reliever yet they won't use him in save situations unless Kenley is unavailable. I'm on record that I believe he's babied by the team, which could be a factor that hurts the team's chances for a WS win. OK, keep his innings down, fine, but does that mean he can't pitch an inning every two or three days to see how he does in the role of the closer?
That’s interesting. But I’m also curious about comparing closers, and even comparing the top 2 or top 3 relievers for each team. How Jansen does in a series is a lot more important than how the 5th best guy in the bullpen will do, for example.
There is still the fear that the Dodger bullpen could easily have a bad series and that’s enough to cost the team. But it is encouraging that it could happen to other teams too.
I miss the old Janssn. He was such a major weapon in the playoffs. And unfortunately, his blown save in game 2 against the Astros probably cost the team a title. I didn’t get too upset with him because nobody is perfect and he looked almost unhittable up until that point, but if there was ever a save he needed to get it was that one. Would have been a 2-0 series lead and I don’t think even Darvish would have blown it at that point. Would have put a lot less pressure on Kershaw in game 5 too and the pressure would have been on the Astros.
You guys drop some great knowledge here, are there any big arms we could bring up from the farm in set up roles?
I think we need a guy or maybe two to change the mix a bit.
There is Marshall Kosowski, (41 SO/ 24.1 inn, 2.22 ERA) at AA Tulsa Drillers, but he's been out for over a month. There are a couple others that look good by the numbers, but I've not heard any ravings about them. Also, bringing someone up for the first time, late in the season, in a full throttle push to win the World Series, can backfire, and only should be attempted as a last resort, imho.
The Dodgers just recently recalled Caleb Furguson (you may have seen some rantings about him herein) who had 23 SO in 13.1 inn at AAA and had not given up a run, earned or otherwise, who promptly gave up two earned runs without getting an out.
In short, there is often someone who is brought up and surprises, but I wouldn't bet on it this year. _________________ "A metronome keeps time by using a Ringo"
Joined: 12 Feb 2002 Posts: 3829 Location: South Orange County
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 7:18 am Post subject:
Just as Jansen didn’t give up the ball when his foot was numb and lied about feeling fine, he will only step down from the closer role kicking and screaming. He does have an incredible amount of experience closing games, so he’ll remain calm no matter what, but his stuff obviously isn’t what it once was.
I think Urias has ice water in his veins. The kid just seems calm no matter the situation. Joe K. seems to have the nastiest stuff as long as he has control...he sure performed under pressure against us.
Re Joe Kelly... My buddy is a huge Red Sox fan so he has experience with the Joe Kelly phenomena. He swears Kelly will draw you in and have good months like even 2 great months where he is unhittable. And you think he's finally found it. Then he turns wild as a March Hare can't find the plate with a Geiger counter and then starts serving up potatoes . He swears he is in the drawing you in phase. Last year he almost didn't make the post season roster. So there is a reason why the Sox who have no bullpen to speak of didn't offer him a contract.
So, as we all, almost universally, attack the bully, how about last night. Six up, six down and five strikeouts, swinging. Yeah the Marlins are a far cry from the Yanks, but we still should acknowledge the good when we are so quick to condemn the bad. _________________ "A metronome keeps time by using a Ringo"
The Dodgers consistently preach the value of their depth, and it appears they have another star in the making who is propelling his way through the pipeline.
Gavin Lux homered for a fifth straight game on Thursday, going 5-for-6 and adding a pair of doubles in Triple-A Oklahoma City's 18-5 rout of Iowa. And that type of dominance has been standard for the Dodgers’ No. 2 prospect (MLB's No. 31 overall) since his promotion to OKC on June 27.
In his 15 games at the Triple-A level, Lux is slashing .531/.577/1.063. He has hit safely in each of those 15 games and has now reached base in 28 consecutive contests. He also hit .313/.375/.521 with 13 homers over 64 games for Double-A Tulsa prior to his promotion.
If only there were a position for him (hint: it is the one after First Base--or it could be the one after that, or the one after that). _________________ "A metronome keeps time by using a Ringo"
FanGraphs’ prospect gurus Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen created and adjusted their 2019 Mid-Season Prospect Rankings on ‘The BOARD’, which you can find here.
There are several changes made that concern the Dodgers and their future:
9) Dustin May
May is now ranked the ninth-best prospect in the league. May could be amongst September call-ups and may be a rotation fixture as soon as 2020.
11) Gavin Lux
Lux is now ranked the eleventh-best prospect in the league. Lux is currently on track to make his debut at the end of this year as he continues to crush Triple-A pitching.
13) Keibert Ruiz
Ruiz is now ranked the 13th-best prospect in the league. He could be useful as a trade chip at the deadline.
67) Will Smith
Smith is now ranked the 67th-best prospect in the league. He should be the Dodgers’ postseason catcher.
Interesting how Ruiz is still ranked way higher than Will Smith
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