OFFICIAL: College Football 2018 Thread

[adkindo]

was looking through some recruiting numbers at a macro level, and noticed something interesting. We all know the hotbeds of college football recruits around the country, but I was surprised to what level.

Each year there are approximately 350-375 Four and Five Star (often known as elite prospects) High School Football recruits. Of that total, 4 states produce the bulk of them.

Florida - 45-50 annually
Texas - 45-50 annually
California - 45-50 annually
Georgia - 40-45 annually

These are ballpark numbers, but that means approximately 51% come from four states that make up less than 30% of the total population. If you want to zero in even further, the Florida/Georgia region makes up less than 10% of the total US population, but produces approximately 25% of the nations elite high school football prospects. Other states that produce a material % of elite prospects includes North Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee, each producing around 12-15 elite prospects a year....or a little less than 5% of the total each. An interesting note is if you are looking at a US map, you will notice the Southeast direction of the numbers, but for some reason South Carolina just does not produce a similar number of elite recruits as all of the states around it.....usually less than 5 per year.

In contrast, many of the areas that have traditionally been fertile recruiting grounds no longer are producing as much talent. Growing up, I recall thinking everyone went to Pennsylvania to find their QB, Ohio to find their offensive and defensive linemen, and the NY/NJ Mid-Atlantic area to find RB's and other skill players. While that sounds silly, just take a look at the all time greats in the 70's, 80's and even 90's that kind of follow that map. Western PA earned its nickname..."The Cradle of Quarterbacks". That era appears to be in the past with Pennsylvania routinely producing less than 5 elite football prospects a year, Ohio is usually around 10, New Jersey and Virginia usually less than 10.....and New York & Illinois, the states with the 4th and 5th largest populations in the country routinely produce 2-4 elite prospects a year!

In regards to the West Coast, outside of California, Arizona is producing 7-10 elite prospects a year, while Oregon and Washington each produce about 2-3. Also, it appears that the lesser talented, but often D1 level prospects who receive a 3 Star rating follow in a similar ratio as the elite prospects to the region.

The data is fairly troubling as it suggests the sport has become very regional, and even worse it has been trending in this direction for at least a couple decades. I would expect the reason that the talent is at a much larger % in these regions compared to the overall population is related to much of the migration to the Southeast, Texas, and West in recent decades has been younger adults and their offspring, while older/elder adults have remained in the less talented regions. I also wonder if we are in sort of a transition period where many of the schools that call these fertile recruiting grounds home have appeared to slip over the last decade as other colleges have invaded and began to raid their talent. Schools like Florida, Florida State, Miami, USC, UCLA and Texas are still elite big time programs, but have all been playing at a tier below what they often were in the 90's and early 2000 years. Even Georgia had slipped until Kirby Smart showed up and began to recruit like Saban, and Georgia Tech has not been relevant since the 1990's. I am guessing not too long ago, USC would show up to a SoCal kid's home with an offer, and almost expect an immediate "yes", but now finding themselves fighting the entire PAC12 and MWC for every recruit.

One aspect that I noticed that is likely contributing is the rules and regulations in each state....or how serious each state allows schools to focus on football. For example, full pads spring football is only allowed in 16 states. I do not have a list of 16, but you could probably guess which states do have spring football as I know Florida, Georgia, Texas, California (varies by district), Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama all have about a month devoted to Spring Football which usually includes about 20-22 practices and an external scrimmage within about 30 calendar days. This can make it difficult for kids to play multiple sports, and specialization is often the option for these students....focusing year round on football. I can verify that playing high school football in WV, then in FL was two different worlds. In WV, you played in the fall....then moved onto another sport or didn't, but basically began thinking about football again as summer concluded. In FL, it was a year round commitment. We had Spring Football which basically is where the depth chart was settled and the basic playbook was incorporated, then when we returned to the field with pads in August, it was basically hitting the ground running. Beyond that, we had year round strength and conditioning....and it was not voluntary, it was a scheduled elective. To be on the football team, you were required to take a class called Strength and Conditioning - Football which was the last class of the day for Varsity, and the next to last for JV. In the summer, we were on the field 4 days a week without pads doing skeleton and 7 on 7 under the watchful eye of coaches even though they were not technically allowed to coach anything but skill development. Like I said, it was different world and required a very similar time commitment to what was required when I played in college.

Make what you want of the data....and let me know of anything I may have missed or be incorrect about, or if you have a theory on the direction of the trend, or the outcome if it continues.

[Aeneas Hunter]

The first question is whether the designation of players as four and five star recruits is influenced by their state of residence. This can be true for a number of reasons, in particular the high level of scouting attention. How accurate do the star rankings turn out to be when we evaluate college and pro careers?

[adkindo]

[adkindo]

Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins announced Monday that he will enter the 2019 NFL draft.

[Huskers]

[ChickenStu]

[ChickenStu]

About to leave to watch the game in Huntington Beach with my buddies. I have Alabama 34, Clemson 24. I'd like to see a good/close game, even though I think 'Bama is better.

[adkindo]

I will take 'Bama 37-20

[adkindo]

'Bama buttoned up helmets on for coin flip.....Clemson holding helmets in hand...not a great sign for Clemson

[adkindo]

Tua throws a pick 6 on first drive!

[JerryWest_44]

[adkindo]

Tua to Jeudy for a 62 Yard TD!

[adkindo]

Tua has already thrown 2 TD's within the first 3 minutes of the game....1 for Alabama and 1 for Clemson...

[JerryWest_44]

14-7 Clemson as the shootout starts ... it’s a PIP Tv evening

[adkindo]

Lawrence with his own 62 yard connection to Higgins, then Etienne punches it in...

[lakersken80]

Too many people overlook Clemson, they will probably pull off the upset.

[adkindo]

Oklahoma is like..."man, these guys do not play any defense"

[adkindo]

my money is on Lawrence winning the Heisman next year....guy is the perfect prototypical Pro style QB

[lakersken80]

Forget about Bama beating the Arizona Cardinals, they can't even stop Clemson.

[ExPatLkrFan]

Unlike Oklahoma, Clemson can play a little defense. And Lawrence has a rocket for an arm.

[ExPatLkrFan]

Double post ugh

[adkindo]

Notre Dame is screaming at the television...."we told y'all"

[adkindo]

I will say it would be extremely foolish to count out Alabama at halftime..they march down the field to open the 2nd half, and it is a one score game.

[adkindo]

move over Tua....Trevor Lawrence is the new face of college football

[ChickenStu]

Well, this game isn't going as I expected lol.