**OFFICIAL** 2018 Fantasy Foootball Thread
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:12 pm    Post subject:

AY2043 wrote:
Looks like James Conner's going to play after his concussion last week, but I picked up his backup Jaylen Samuels in a couple leagues just in case. He has TE eligibility in Yahoo and CBS.

Might be worth an add if you have the roster spot available. Could be a week winner if Conner sits and you get starting RB level production from your TE spot.


If you have the roster space, sure, why not? It does look like Conner is going to be fine, though, as he practiced today.

The Ravens are being purposefully murky about who will start for them at QB this week. They are calling Flacco day-to-day, who didn't practice today, and it does seem like he could miss the game. They are also sending out signals that, if Flacco can't play, they'd start Robert Griffin instead of Jackson. I still think Jackson is well worth a speculative add if you have the room. If he gets the call, his matchups down the stretch are cake, starting this week against the Bengals, and his rush floor will make him a Michael Vick-like fantasy QB if he is starting.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 9:57 pm    Post subject:

Need some help please. I lost last week. Almost my entire team wet the bed collectively. I'm now 6-5 and 7th place. 2 more games left. I need to win these next two or I'll miss the playoffs.

I'm having the hardest time choosing 3 of these running backs to start.
Conner @ Den - Burned me last week against the jags. He had a forsure td had he caught the ball on the last drive. couple crucial drops. But it is Conner and his ceiling is so high.
CMC vs Sea -
DJ @ LAC -
Chubb @ Cin - Love this matchup with the bengals D and Chubb gets so many touches. I like his ceiling.
Mixon vs Cle - Not liking his recent workload of carrying it 23 times the last 2 weeks but the browns are not good against the run either. AJ Green coming back probably helps too

i'm leaning Conner and Chubb but not sure which between CMC & DJ
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:22 pm    Post subject:

LakersChamps04 wrote:
Need some help please. I lost last week. Almost my entire team wet the bed collectively. I'm now 6-5 and 7th place. 2 more games left. I need to win these next two or I'll miss the playoffs.

I'm having the hardest time choosing 3 of these running backs to start.
Conner @ Den - Burned me last week against the jags. He had a forsure td had he caught the ball on the last drive. couple crucial drops. But it is Conner and his ceiling is so high.
CMC vs Sea -
DJ @ LAC -
Chubb @ Cin - Love this matchup with the bengals D and Chubb gets so many touches. I like his ceiling.
Mixon vs Cle - Not liking his recent workload of carrying it 23 times the last 2 weeks but the browns are not good against the run either. AJ Green coming back probably helps too

i'm leaning Conner and Chubb but not sure which between CMC & DJ


Wow. You have a lot of great options here. I think I would go Conner, McCaffrey, and Chubb. McCaffrey just never comes off the field. Conner is likely to have a bounce-back game, and rarely comes off the field. And Chubb has looked good enough to where I wouldn't want to sit him in what is such a fantastic matchup, and the Browns have shown that they will get him around 20 carries even if they are behind. The Bengals offense has struggled enough lately to where I would sit Mixon (AJ may not be close to 100% even if he plays), and while DJ could do fine, Arizona is implied for 16 points and is a 12.5 point underdog. They really are all very good options, though.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2018 8:13 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
LakersChamps04 wrote:
Need some help please. I lost last week. Almost my entire team wet the bed collectively. I'm now 6-5 and 7th place. 2 more games left. I need to win these next two or I'll miss the playoffs.

I'm having the hardest time choosing 3 of these running backs to start.
Conner @ Den - Burned me last week against the jags. He had a forsure td had he caught the ball on the last drive. couple crucial drops. But it is Conner and his ceiling is so high.
CMC vs Sea -
DJ @ LAC -
Chubb @ Cin - Love this matchup with the bengals D and Chubb gets so many touches. I like his ceiling.
Mixon vs Cle - Not liking his recent workload of carrying it 23 times the last 2 weeks but the browns are not good against the run either. AJ Green coming back probably helps too

i'm leaning Conner and Chubb but not sure which between CMC & DJ


Wow. You have a lot of great options here. I think I would go Conner, McCaffrey, and Chubb. McCaffrey just never comes off the field. Conner is likely to have a bounce-back game, and rarely comes off the field. And Chubb has looked good enough to where I wouldn't want to sit him in what is such a fantastic matchup, and the Browns have shown that they will get him around 20 carries even if they are behind. The Bengals offense has struggled enough lately to where I would sit Mixon (AJ may not be close to 100% even if he plays), and while DJ could do fine, Arizona is implied for 16 points and is a 12.5 point underdog. They really are all very good options, though.


I'd go Mixon, Conner, Chubb, personally unless it's a PPR league then maybe CMC over ... Chubb but I love Chubb's matchup.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2018 8:38 pm    Post subject:

Thanks guys.. ima mull overt it.. I might roll with chubb conner & CMC. its half PPR and he hardly gets off the field so he should get more work than Mixon. But DJ might have a better matchup. Seattle's D aint too bad. Ugh i'll make it a gametime decision
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2018 7:24 am    Post subject:

LakersChamps04 wrote:
Thanks guys.. ima mull overt it.. I might roll with chubb conner & CMC. its half PPR and he hardly gets off the field so he should get more work than Mixon. But DJ might have a better matchup. Seattle's D aint too bad. Ugh i'll make it a gametime decision


Would still urge you to consider Mixon. I know you have concerns over the 23 carries past 2 weeks but that was a combination of game script (trailing big in the game) and the teams they were facing (NO/BAL). If anything, this means Mixon should be well rested for this game.

Chubb has a high ceiling but a low floor as he could get scripted out if CLE falls behind they will use more Duke Johnson.

If it were me, I’d probably sit CMC and start Mixon/Chubb/Conner. Just think Mixon has a higher ceiling and a higher floor than CMC.
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2018 3:04 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
LakersChamps04 wrote:
Thanks guys.. ima mull overt it.. I might roll with chubb conner & CMC. its half PPR and he hardly gets off the field so he should get more work than Mixon. But DJ might have a better matchup. Seattle's D aint too bad. Ugh i'll make it a gametime decision


Would still urge you to consider Mixon. I know you have concerns over the 23 carries past 2 weeks but that was a combination of game script (trailing big in the game) and the teams they were facing (NO/BAL). If anything, this means Mixon should be well rested for this game.

Chubb has a high ceiling but a low floor as he could get scripted out if CLE falls behind they will use more Duke Johnson.

If it were me, I’d probably sit CMC and start Mixon/Chubb/Conner. Just think Mixon has a higher ceiling and a higher floor than CMC.


Allow me to disagree. Chubb has gotten at least 20 touches in every game he's started, and he had negative game script in all but one of those games (his last one). They are committed to giving him carries, and the matchup could hardly be better. As for Mixon, I would sit him, given that AJ Green is now listed as doubtful after not practicing all week, and he's almost certainly not going to play. It just drags down their entire offense. I mean, could Mixon still have a great game against a pretty bad Browns run defense? Sure, but his floor looks lower to me than all of his other options. Seattle's run defense is not scary by any means (and Carolina renders matchups largely moot anyway with the dual-threat of Newton under center), and CMC doesn't come off the field. Giovani Bernard actually played a decent percentage of the snaps last week, also.

It's not that I hate Mixon this week, but I think he has the clearly-lowest floor of all of his options due to AJ Green's absence and the fact that Bernard was playing quite a bit on passing downs last week. If I'm the Browns, I'm stacking the box, sticking Denzel Ward on Tyler Boyd, and making Andy Dalton beat me with...CJ Uzomah? The walking injury that is John Ross? Alex Erickson?
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2018 9:42 pm    Post subject:

Ya know what, I'm actually thinking about benching Conner and start DJ CMC & Chubb. I dont like the Broncos matchup. They've played some very good rb's over the last 4 weeks, hunt, gordon & DJ, and didnt allow a td to them or 100 yards. They're a good unit. CMC & DJ are game script proof and gotta love Chubb's touches. They're saying Green isn't going to play tomorrow which hurts the Bengal's offense which ultimately hurts Mixon..

Anyways, good luck everyone!
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 12:17 am    Post subject:

LakersChamps04 wrote:
Ya know what, I'm actually thinking about benching Conner and start DJ CMC & Chubb. I dont like the Broncos matchup. They've played some very good rb's over the last 4 weeks, hunt, gordon & DJ, and didnt allow a td to them or 100 yards. They're a good unit. CMC & DJ are game script proof and gotta love Chubb's touches. They're saying Green isn't going to play tomorrow which hurts the Bengal's offense which ultimately hurts Mixon..

Anyways, good luck everyone!


As long as you indeed rolled with CMC and Chubb, I'm guessing you did well. Mixon ended up doing well too, actually.

I'm going to go 2-1 in my 3 leagues this week as long as I can avoid monster games from Watson and Demaryius Thomas tomorrow night. In my league where I have both Brees and Big Ben and can only start one, I'm already wondering which guy to play next week. Brees is at Dallas in the Thursday night game, while Ben is at home against the Chargers in the Sunday night game. My initial thought was to just play Ben at home (where he usually feasts) and to sit Brees on the road (where he's usually worse). But Dallas does play in a dome, so maybe Brees can still eat. It's 6 point passing TD's in that league, too. My gut is Ben but I think it's pretty close.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:21 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
LakersChamps04 wrote:
Ya know what, I'm actually thinking about benching Conner and start DJ CMC & Chubb. I dont like the Broncos matchup. They've played some very good rb's over the last 4 weeks, hunt, gordon & DJ, and didnt allow a td to them or 100 yards. They're a good unit. CMC & DJ are game script proof and gotta love Chubb's touches. They're saying Green isn't going to play tomorrow which hurts the Bengal's offense which ultimately hurts Mixon..

Anyways, good luck everyone!


As long as you indeed rolled with CMC and Chubb, I'm guessing you did well. Mixon ended up doing well too, actually.

I'm going to go 2-1 in my 3 leagues this week as long as I can avoid monster games from Watson and Demaryius Thomas tomorrow night. In my league where I have both Brees and Big Ben and can only start one, I'm already wondering which guy to play next week. Brees is at Dallas in the Thursday night game, while Ben is at home against the Chargers in the Sunday night game. My initial thought was to just play Ben at home (where he usually feasts) and to sit Brees on the road (where he's usually worse). But Dallas does play in a dome, so maybe Brees can still eat. It's 6 point passing TD's in that league, too. My gut is Ben but I think it's pretty close.
Im def glad I started CMC and Chubb. Helped me win in both my leagues. I wonder if you can begin expecting these games out of Chubb. He's going to win people some leagues.

It's hard going away from Brees especially considering how efficient hes been but I feel like the steelers chargers games will have more scoring in it and more point chasing. Ben's got the higher ceiling for sure. I'd start him too
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:17 pm    Post subject:

Remember that matchup I talked about, where I just needed to avoid monster games from Watson and Thomas? Yeah, I lost by .5 of a point.

If they call Watson's fumble as it should've been ruled, I would've won relatively comfortably. After the missed ruling, then, of course, he hits Thomas on that drive for a TD, his second TD reception of the night. Thomas hadn't caught 2 TD's in a game since 2015. Then on the Texans' final drive, despite being up 17, Watson threw not once but twice for completions, and that yardage gave my opponent...wait for it...a .5 point win. Now I'm 7-5 in that league, despite having the most total points by far in that league, and I need a win next week to clinch my division now. A win tonight would've given me a guaranteed bye into the semifinals.

Instead, the 2% chance I had to lose happened, and the fact that it happened because of a missed call that led to a player who has been a walking corpse for 2 years scored his second TD of the game really pisses me off.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 7:07 am    Post subject:

LakersChamps04 wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
LakersChamps04 wrote:
Ya know what, I'm actually thinking about benching Conner and start DJ CMC & Chubb. I dont like the Broncos matchup. They've played some very good rb's over the last 4 weeks, hunt, gordon & DJ, and didnt allow a td to them or 100 yards. They're a good unit. CMC & DJ are game script proof and gotta love Chubb's touches. They're saying Green isn't going to play tomorrow which hurts the Bengal's offense which ultimately hurts Mixon..

Anyways, good luck everyone!


As long as you indeed rolled with CMC and Chubb, I'm guessing you did well. Mixon ended up doing well too, actually.

I'm going to go 2-1 in my 3 leagues this week as long as I can avoid monster games from Watson and Demaryius Thomas tomorrow night. In my league where I have both Brees and Big Ben and can only start one, I'm already wondering which guy to play next week. Brees is at Dallas in the Thursday night game, while Ben is at home against the Chargers in the Sunday night game. My initial thought was to just play Ben at home (where he usually feasts) and to sit Brees on the road (where he's usually worse). But Dallas does play in a dome, so maybe Brees can still eat. It's 6 point passing TD's in that league, too. My gut is Ben but I think it's pretty close.
Im def glad I started CMC and Chubb. Helped me win in both my leagues. I wonder if you can begin expecting these games out of Chubb. He's going to win people some leagues.

It's hard going away from Brees especially considering how efficient hes been but I feel like the steelers chargers games will have more scoring in it and more point chasing. Ben's got the higher ceiling for sure. I'd start him too


Glad you didn't listen to me about Mixon. I would have felt bad. He had a good game still, but, not nearly as good as CMC.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 7:46 am    Post subject:

Start 2: Ingram, James White, Josh Adams - 1/2 PPR
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 7:55 am    Post subject:

vanexelent wrote:
Start 2: Ingram, James White, Josh Adams - 1/2 PPR


Josh Adams
Mark Ingram

But it's close between Ingram/White for me.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:37 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
vanexelent wrote:
Start 2: Ingram, James White, Josh Adams - 1/2 PPR


Josh Adams
Mark Ingram

But it's close between Ingram/White for me.


I'd probably go Adams and White. I have a feeling that Brady leans heavily on White on Sunday night, as it's tough to run on Minnesota and I think they will emphasize a lot of quick passes to White and Edelman to try to negate the Minnesota pass rush. I could see an argument for Ingram over Adams, but I'll go with the Eagle here, as he's now the clear feature back for Philly.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:47 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
vanexelent wrote:
Start 2: Ingram, James White, Josh Adams - 1/2 PPR


Josh Adams
Mark Ingram

But it's close between Ingram/White for me.


I'd probably go Adams and White. I have a feeling that Brady leans heavily on White on Sunday night, as it's tough to run on Minnesota and I think they will emphasize a lot of quick passes to White and Edelman to try to negate the Minnesota pass rush. I could see an argument for Ingram over Adams, but I'll go with the Eagle here, as he's now the clear feature back for Philly.


I'm factoring in too that Burkhead is back and I'm not sure how much run he is going to get. I have to assume they're going to give him SOME run for an eventual playoff push. White has also seen his touches drop since Michel came back (19, 18, 18 in the three games prior. 6, 10 since Week 10)

Adams is a lock among those players for me as you said, because he's now in a feature back role (his touches this week were reduced because he got hurt early in the game and had to be examined).

Ingram however, has a locked in role. 18, 14, 16, 10, 16, 16, 13 since returning from suspension for an average of 15 touches per game. I also think he has a higher ceiling given he gets goal line work.

All that said, I believe DVOA has MIN as the second worst team in the league defending pass catching RBs so that makes the decision a little more challenging indeed.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:55 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
vanexelent wrote:
Start 2: Ingram, James White, Josh Adams - 1/2 PPR


Josh Adams
Mark Ingram

But it's close between Ingram/White for me.


I'd probably go Adams and White. I have a feeling that Brady leans heavily on White on Sunday night, as it's tough to run on Minnesota and I think they will emphasize a lot of quick passes to White and Edelman to try to negate the Minnesota pass rush. I could see an argument for Ingram over Adams, but I'll go with the Eagle here, as he's now the clear feature back for Philly.


I'm factoring in too that Burkhead is back and I'm not sure how much run he is going to get. I have to assume they're going to give him SOME run for an eventual playoff push. White has also seen his touches drop since Michel came back (19, 18, 18 in the three games prior. 6, 10 since Week 10)

Adams is a lock among those players for me as you said, because he's now in a feature back role (his touches this week were reduced because he got hurt early in the game and had to be examined).

Ingram however, has a locked in role. 18, 14, 16, 10, 16, 16, 13 since returning from suspension for an average of 15 touches per game. I also think he has a higher ceiling given he gets goal line work.

All that said, I believe DVOA has MIN as the second worst team in the league defending pass catching RBs so that makes the decision a little more challenging indeed.


Yeah, I just feel like this is a James White game, and not a Sony Michel game, and I'm not going to worry too much about how much work Burkhead might get, given how much time he's missed. Heck, he may not even play, for all we know. Dallas is tough to run on, and you are pretty much banking on a TD from Ingram in order for him to pay off. Whereas with White, I think even in half-point PPR, he has a decent floor, and I feel like he scores on Sunday night. Call it a hunch LOL.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 11:13 am    Post subject:

^ I feel you. Your hunches have been better than mine this season.

I think the difference between them frankly is tiny in terms of realistically projecting their output for this week.

I wouldn’t blame anyone for playing either guy. But I would def not play either of them over Josh Adams.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:37 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
vanexelent wrote:
Start 2: Ingram, James White, Josh Adams - 1/2 PPR


Josh Adams
Mark Ingram

But it's close between Ingram/White for me.


I'd probably go Adams and White. I have a feeling that Brady leans heavily on White on Sunday night, as it's tough to run on Minnesota and I think they will emphasize a lot of quick passes to White and Edelman to try to negate the Minnesota pass rush. I could see an argument for Ingram over Adams, but I'll go with the Eagle here, as he's now the clear feature back for Philly.


I'm factoring in too that Burkhead is back and I'm not sure how much run he is going to get. I have to assume they're going to give him SOME run for an eventual playoff push. White has also seen his touches drop since Michel came back (19, 18, 18 in the three games prior. 6, 10 since Week 10)

Adams is a lock among those players for me as you said, because he's now in a feature back role (his touches this week were reduced because he got hurt early in the game and had to be examined).

Ingram however, has a locked in role. 18, 14, 16, 10, 16, 16, 13 since returning from suspension for an average of 15 touches per game. I also think he has a higher ceiling given he gets goal line work.

All that said, I believe DVOA has MIN as the second worst team in the league defending pass catching RBs so that makes the decision a little more challenging indeed.


Yeah, I just feel like this is a James White game, and not a Sony Michel game, and I'm not going to worry too much about how much work Burkhead might get, given how much time he's missed. Heck, he may not even play, for all we know. Dallas is tough to run on, and you are pretty much banking on a TD from Ingram in order for him to pay off. Whereas with White, I think even in half-point PPR, he has a decent floor, and I feel like he scores on Sunday night. Call it a hunch LOL.


I'm sitting Ingram... Although I'm not sold on Adams. He gets the touches, but he's not a great RB to trust.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 11:02 pm    Post subject:

^
Things change remarkably fast in the NFL, as the seasons are so short, just 16 games. Ajayi got hurt, and Clement and Smallwood were terrible with their opportunities. Adams looks like he has another gear and more power, and he has essentially become their clear feature back over the past 2 weeks, getting 22 carries in a must-win game last week, and they are all basically must-wins for the Eagles at this point. Against a Redskins team that is backsliding with Colt McCoy at QB, I like his chances to again get 20+ touches and to score.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:07 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
^
Things change remarkably fast in the NFL, as the seasons are so short, just 16 games. Ajayi got hurt, and Clement and Smallwood were terrible with their opportunities. Adams looks like he has another gear and more power, and he has essentially become their clear feature back over the past 2 weeks, getting 22 carries in a must-win game last week, and they are all basically must-wins for the Eagles at this point. Against a Redskins team that is backsliding with Colt McCoy at QB, I like his chances to again get 20+ touches and to score.


Same. And to add, the Eagles seem to be having issues with their air attack at the moment. So i think getting the run game going might open up things for them on the pass.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:56 pm    Post subject:

This is a really good week to stream defenses. Here are some defenses worth picking up if you have been playing a certain D that might not be desirable this week, such as Baltimore (at Atlanta) or the Chargers (at Pittsburgh):

--Seattle (vs SF)
--Green Bay (vs Arizona)
--Tennessee (vs NY Jets)
--Miami (vs Buffalo)
--KC (at Oakland)
--Denver (at Cincinnati)

I like playing defenses that are at home, and I really like the first 3 options that I listed. Miami is in play because Buffalo is a dumpster fire away from home. KC has been much better defensively lately (their only poor games since Week 4 have come on the road against the Patriots and Rams), and Derek Carr has taken sacks aplenty in recent weeks. As for Denver, they are on the road, but let's just say that I'm not going to trust the Jeff Driskel experience.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:09 am    Post subject:

What do you guys think of Justin Jackson (ROS)? Is it the Ekeler show with Gordon out, or will Ekeler's role stay the same with Jackson taking most of Gordon's carries?
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:16 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
This is a really good week to stream defenses. Here are some defenses worth picking up if you have been playing a certain D that might not be desirable this week, such as Baltimore (at Atlanta) or the Chargers (at Pittsburgh):

--Seattle (vs SF)
--Green Bay (vs Arizona)
--Tennessee (vs NY Jets)
--Miami (vs Buffalo)
--KC (at Oakland)
--Denver (at Cincinnati)

I like playing defenses that are at home, and I really like the first 3 options that I listed. Miami is in play because Buffalo is a dumpster fire away from home. KC has been much better defensively lately (their only poor games since Week 4 have come on the road against the Patriots and Rams), and Derek Carr has taken sacks aplenty in recent weeks. As for Denver, they are on the road, but let's just say that I'm not going to trust the Jeff Driskel experience.

I'm going with Tennessee. Their ROS schedule is NYJ, Jacksonville, and the Giants. That team has showed flashes of being pretty strong defensively, and that schedule is damn tasty.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:22 am    Post subject:

BadGuy wrote:
What do you guys think of Justin Jackson (ROS)? Is it the Ekeler show with Gordon out, or will Ekeler's role stay the same with Jackson taking most of Gordon's carries?

I've seen some experts say it could be a pretty even split, but I tend to think Ekeler will get the vast majority of work. The Chargers are super high on him, and I don't think that one game against Tennessee where Gordon was out and Ekeler didn't play that well will deter them too much from giving him a full workload.

Jackson looked solid at the end of last week, but he didn't show all that much when he got his chance in preseason.. He actually got cut and sent to the PS in favor of another RB.
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