Official General 2019 NBA Draft Talk Thread (Lakers Get 46th Pick/Talen Horton-Tucker, Sign Cacok, Norvell, Caroline)
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PlantedTanks
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:15 pm    Post subject:

Sentient Meat wrote:
How do you guys handicap a guy who's playing in a program that ranks 233rd
in strength of schedule... vs a guy like Svi who played for the 2nd hardest SOS and shot even better?

His numbers are excellent, as well as that wingspan... but how can you know with that schedule?

I must say... just to draft someone who can shoot free throws would be a welcome relief though.


Even at lower level competition I look at athleticism in context of their position. More importantly I like to see good body control especially in a big. If they move fluidly on offense then they should be able to translate that to defense.

As I look at the skills I attempt to determine if it will translate to the NBA. For example shooting. Daum has nice form, a quick release and very good shooting touch which is one criteria that is more of an opinion than measurable. Another example is Jonathan Williams of South Bay Lakers. He puts up nice numbers but how he gets those numbers I don't believe is translatable to the NBA. I give a + for players with good wing spans, especially bigs.

Hopefully you get to see them against Major competition and last year Daum had a good game vs. Ohio State in the NCAA tournament. Only a YT video but he did not look over matched.

Then try to watch them in an actual game. Caleb Martin may have been the player of the year in the MWC but watching in game I prefer his brother as an NBA prospect as his skills are more translatable.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:33 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Sentient Meat wrote:
How do you guys handicap a guy who's playing in a program that ranks 233rd
in strength of schedule... vs a guy like Svi who played for the 2nd hardest SOS and shot even better?

His numbers are excellent, as well as that wingspan... but how can you know with that schedule?

I must say... just to draft someone who can shoot free throws would be a welcome relief though.


Even at lower level competition I look at athleticism in context of their position. More importantly I like to see good body control especially in a big. If they move fluidly on offense then they should be able to translate that to defense.

As I look at the skills I attempt to determine if it will translate to the NBA. For example shooting. Daum has nice form, a quick release and very good shooting touch which is one criteria that is more of an opinion than measurable. Another example is Jonathan Williams of South Bay Lakers. He puts up nice numbers but how he gets those numbers I don't believe is translatable to the NBA. I give a + for players with good wing spans, especially bigs.

Hopefully you get to see them against Major competition and last year Daum had a good game vs. Ohio State in the NCAA tournament. Only a YT video but he did not look over matched.

Then try to watch them in an actual game. Caleb Martin may have been the player of the year in the MWC but watching in game I prefer his brother as an NBA prospect as his skills are more translatable.


Thanks to both you and Mike for the replies... I'll keep my eye out for this guy although I doubt many of his games will be on TV.

I always wonder how they find people like Karl Malone.

Averaged 16 points at Louisiana Tech... yet became one of the top scorers of all time.

Makes you think how many greats never got a chance because they played in obscurity.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:37 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
Averaged 16 points at Louisiana Tech... yet became one of the top scorers of all time.


Scouting isn't linear. Who knew that Karl Malone would basically turn into a body builder?

That built his entire career.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:40 am    Post subject:

Going to start catching up on this year’s draft soon. Who should I watch? I think we’re trading this pick though.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:29 am    Post subject:

https://www.thestepien.com/2018/12/16/jackson-hoys-updated-top-100/

I agree with a lot of this list. Been working with @frontofficeeye and @zachmilner just keeping tabs on prospects on a google doc. No way we have time to operate a site.

Some key things here.

Jarrett Culver at #3 - He got found for things we already knew.
Talen Horten Tucker - Usually a mid to late 1st round type, but this draft is weaker than usual.
NAW - Same as Tucker.
Coby White - Massive jump based on the twitch/decel and pull up jumper. The SSS I've seen hasn't shown much more outside of that, but even if he's Mo Williams in archetype, that's a big deal
Romeo Langford - I'd have him lower than #14
Ty Jerome - The Huerter of this draft, if there was one
Dort - #37, Basically Sherman Douglas
Bruno Fernando - #38. Basically when the draft declarations flesh out, that kind of current ranking jumps to late 1st by draft day.
Jordan Poole - Reminds me of Josh Childress, more IQ.
Hachimura - #45, The offense is there, but his best defensive position is 5, and he can't even defend 5s in the post. Really limited vision considering his NCAA experience

Right around this point, guys would be selected in the early to mid 2nd round depending if things remained constant.

They never do.

Ethan Happ - #51 - There's a place in the NBA for him if he's utilized in an Andrew Bogut GSW role. More strength would be great to compensate by height but there's little doubt to his post base, rebounding, and passing ability.
#53 Markus Howard - Hired gun.
#55 Jalen McDaniels - Probably the one pick of the list I really disagree with. I'd consider him mid-late 1st for now. Really lacks strength, but more of a long term guy. But as we've seen with recent drafts + the inclusion of analytics, a lot of people aren't patient. Immediate results are prioritized over projected upside.
#56 Jon Teske - He's like the Rudy Gobert of NCAA without the insane swat rate. Unsure of how much of it is translatable, but that guy puts his body on the line and makes decisive defensive reads.
#59 Carson Edwards - Basically Jordan Farmar, but playing as a 2 for right now. Gets a lot of touches/shots which is easy for him to hit; more volume shooter than accurate one. Immensely strong to compensate for the height issues.
#60 Naz Reid - Like watching Caleb Swanigan, except Reid is younger with better passing ability by age.
#61 Charles Mathews - 2-way player, really like him a lot. Hasn't shown great range outside of 17'. Moves the ball/striker, but difficult to get both sides of the floor going at the same time. Not the best vertical leaper, but average. Motor and quickness show well defensively.
#65 Miye Oni - Getting found, and opposing teams are seeking him out defensively. Easily an upper tier athlete in the draft with enough ball-skills to make him effective. I like him a lot, even if he's primarily a slasher. If there was a sneaky Eddie Jones archetype to this draft...
#66 Thybulle - if there was a Melton to this draft, it's Thybulle, except Melton was WAY ahead with ball-handling, passing, shooting. Thybulle stuck playing 4 and has shown hesitance to attack the basket for Washington has hurt them early on, but even as a defensive specialist that can switch and force turnovers 1-4, he's legit.
#70 Azubuike - Smaller Shaq without the elite tier explosiveness. Old school game. Wish he boxed out and screened better. That'd change his outlook tremendously. Creates a lot of the post unlike Jaxson Hayes and Daniel Gafford, easily the strongest of the 3.
#77 Cam Johnson - seen as a limited upside pick because he's a super senior, but moves the ball and shoots. Add some weight and he's Bjelica to the dot. Plays 2 for UNC, which speaks highly to how well he moves his feet defensively. Easily a 4/3 next level. I do NOT expect the shot to directly translate until he's got a year or two in the L under his belt.
#79 Kerwin Roach Jr. - Smaller Westbrook. Similar issues with jumpshot. Ranked low basically because of size. Lightweight, but a tempo changer.
#84 Admiral Schofield - Basically healthy Jared Dudley. Smart IQ defensive plays, his 3s. Two way role player for now.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:54 am    Post subject:

Also, happy I switched on Bruno Fernando after considerably more game tape.

Quote:
Like sizable jumps in Player Efficiency Rating (21.9 to 30.0), true shooting percentage (61.7 percent to 71.3 percent) and block percentage (6 percent to 10.7 percent). Like an offensive Win Shares total of 1.0 that, in just 11 games, approaches the 1.5 amassed in 33 games as a freshman. Like Fernando fouling out of just one game (the season opener) and committing four fouls in just two others. He’s better in small ways that loom large for a team that absolutely requires Fernando’s consistent presence in order to achieve anything.


https://theathletic.com/714166/2018/12/17/as-the-game-slows-down-for-maryland-center-bruno-fernando-his-development-is-accelerating/
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:00 pm    Post subject:

Jalen Hudson (Florida) should have came out last year....he is not even starting this season.....his minutes, production and efficiency have fell off a cliff.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:54 pm    Post subject:

justsomelakerfan wrote:
Going to start catching up on this year’s draft soon. Who should I watch? I think we’re trading this pick though.

Besides thicc boy genius Jontay Porter? Here are a few names grouped by position/skillset and roughly in order of how I like them as prospects (w/in each grouping, not overall) who could be available at the Lakers pick:

True centers:

Jaxson Hayes (Texas)
Daniel Gafford (Arkansas)
Bruno Fernando (Maryland)
Neemias Queta (Utah State)
Charles Bassey (WKU)
Aric Holman (MSU)
Goga Bitadze https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nRr_6t_3vr0

Moe-ish bigs:

Killian Tillie (Gonzaga) - out until Feb.
Rui Hachimura (Gonzaga)
Naz Reid (LSU)
Jalen Smith (Maryland)
Dean Wade (KSU)

Small-ball Cs and small-ball PFs:

Brandon Clarke (Gonzaga)
Iggy Brazdeikis (Michigan)
Simi Sh*ttu (Vanderbilt)
Grant Williams (Tenn)
Admiral Schoefield (Tenn)
Jalen McDaniels (SDSU)
Isaiah Roby (Nebraska)
P.J. Washington (UK)
Chuma Okeke (Auburn)
Jaylen Hoard (Wake Forest)
Sagaba Konate (WVU)
Anfernee McFarlane (Auburn)
Ethan Happ (Wisconsin)

(Mostly) spot-up wings (with flashes of other (bleep)):

Deividas Sirvydis https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QH9IXGwhVlc
Dylan Windler (Belmont)
Zach Norvell (Gonzaga)
Kris Wilkes (UCLA)
Sam Hauser (Marquette)
Cam Johnson (UNC)

Small lead guards:

Tre Jones (Duke)
Shamorie Ponds (St. John's)
Ky Bowman (BC)
Carsen Edwards (Purdue)
Jordan Poole (Michigan)
Markus Howard (Marquette)
Tremont Waters (LSU)

Bigger PGs and combo-guards:

Nickeil Alexander-Walker (VaTech)
Ty Jerome (UVA)
Ayo Dosunmu (Illinois)

Athletic defensive wings with still developing offensive games:

Josh Reaves (Penn State)
Charles Matthews (Michigan)
Matisse Thuybulle (UW)

Bully-ball guards who could end up like Marcus Smart, Ron Artest, or Lance Stephenson (*shrug*):

Talen Horton-Tucker (Iowa State)
Luguentz Dort (ASU)

- The two big shotblockers, Hayes and Gafford, are both raw, but would fit a big long-term need for a rim protecting/lob threat center. Hayes, in particular, looks like a special athlete for his size, but he's super raw. I'm not as high on Fernando as Mike is because his hands scare me, but I could see him potentially earning a starting NBA role at some point in his career.

- With Moe on the roster, I'd lean against taking another defensively challenged, offensively skilled big - except my man Jontay who has sneaky good defensive upside. Tillie's probably the only clear 1st round talent of that group to me.

- Even though the Lakers have three combo-forwards who will continue to log big minutes, there are a number of odd, skilled tweener bigs who could potentially help the Lakers small ball lineups. Brandon Clarke gives off Shawn Marion vibes; Iggy's like if Joe Harris were 6'8 220; Simi Sh*ttu is very Julius Randle-ish (both good and bad), but more explosive even coming off of an ACL tear; and all those other guys listed are super fun to watch as athletic defensive specialists, sneaky good passing bigs, and/or undersized low-post scorers.

- The wings and smaller PG groups don't interest me as much in the 1st round of this draft, but I think they all have solid value in the 2nd round if the Lakers could buy a pick next summer.

- I love Alexander-Walker and Ty Jerome. They're not sexy athletes and they don't have high ceilings, which will likely cause them to be under-drafted, but those two guys know how to play the game, can shoot the crap out of the ball, and should be able to run second units right away. Good teams with bigger playmakers like the Sixers, Warriors, Bucks, and Lakers should be all over those two.

- THT and Dort may make their way into the lottery since both are so productive at such young ages. But if they fall some due to being a bit awkward looking and inefficient as freshmen, either guy could be worth the upside play for the Lakers even if it may take them 2-3 seasons of development to get under control against NBA competition.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:21 pm    Post subject:

I think that if the Lakers traded down from their 1st and converted it into 2 2nd rounders (depending on the official declare list), that may optimize the value for this year's draft.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:33 pm    Post subject:

at our projected slot, based on existing mocks, i'm targeting hayes, brazdeikis, and horton tucker.

that said, i think mike's on point, converting the 1st into 2 2nds gives us slightly better cap flexibility, and also will allow us to fill the roster easier after we lose most of the 1 year guys.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:10 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
I think that if the Lakers traded down from their 1st and converted it into 2 2nd rounders (depending on the official declare list), that may optimize the value for this year's draft.

Good idea - Orlando (#34, #37), Sacramento (#40, #41, #58), Philly (#32, #48, #54) and Atlanta (#33, #42, #52) are the obvious targets for that kind of deal.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:17 pm    Post subject:

44TheLogo wrote:
at our projected slot, based on existing mocks, i'm targeting hayes, brazdeikis, and horton tucker.

that said, i think mike's on point, converting the 1st into 2 2nds gives us slightly better cap flexibility, and also will allow us to fill the roster easier after we lose most of the 1 year guys.


Am I hesitant on Hayes and Gafford because I don't think they're even strong players? Hayes is getting away with length and not fighting the post defensively from the limited sample I saw. Gafford, I guess I just expected more since there was some draft buzz from last year.

Also, Azubuike is played as an Iso post player, not a lob target, but if he played as one, why wouldn't he be considered up there with Hayes and Gafford?

I guess Hayes and Gafford can eventually switch defensively down the line, but I don't think it's to the detriment of roughly 20-30 draft spots.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:19 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
I think that if the Lakers traded down from their 1st and converted it into 2 2nd rounders (depending on the official declare list), that may optimize the value for this year's draft.

Good idea - Orlando (#34, #37), Sacramento (#40, #41, #58), Philly (#32, #48, #54) and Atlanta (#33, #42, #52) are the obvious targets for that kind of deal.


I'd definitely prefer Orlando's picks. I don't want to make Sacramento better. I do think Atlanta's scouting team is really good too. So, Orlando's guys would pick the wingspan players because they're the former MIL guys?
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:45 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
I think that if the Lakers traded down from their 1st and converted it into 2 2nd rounders (depending on the official declare list), that may optimize the value for this year's draft.

Good idea - Orlando (#34, #37), Sacramento (#40, #41, #58), Philly (#32, #48, #54) and Atlanta (#33, #42, #52) are the obvious targets for that kind of deal.


I'd definitely prefer Orlando's picks. I don't want to make Sacramento better. I do think Atlanta's scouting team is really good too. So, Orlando's guys would pick the wingspan players because they're the former MIL guys?

Yes, Hammond is the new GM there - formerly of MIL - who prioritizes wingspan. Maybe THT excites him?
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:55 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
I think that if the Lakers traded down from their 1st and converted it into 2 2nd rounders (depending on the official declare list), that may optimize the value for this year's draft.

Good idea - Orlando (#34, #37), Sacramento (#40, #41, #58), Philly (#32, #48, #54) and Atlanta (#33, #42, #52) are the obvious targets for that kind of deal.


I'd definitely prefer Orlando's picks. I don't want to make Sacramento better. I do think Atlanta's scouting team is really good too. So, Orlando's guys would pick the wingspan players because they're the former MIL guys?

Yes, Hammond is the new GM there - formerly of MIL - who prioritizes wingspan. Maybe THT excites him?


So he's got a shot at Gafford, Hayes, or Jalen Smith?

Just looking at names here, there aren't really any extraordinary guys that late in the draft in terms of measureables. Thybulle, PJ, Bruno, Azubuike seem to be the extraordinary ones by height.

http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:11 pm    Post subject:

^
Isaiah Robey 6'8 230 lb with a 7'3 wingspan.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:18 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
I think that if the Lakers traded down from their 1st and converted it into 2 2nd rounders (depending on the official declare list), that may optimize the value for this year's draft.

Good idea - Orlando (#34, #37), Sacramento (#40, #41, #58), Philly (#32, #48, #54) and Atlanta (#33, #42, #52) are the obvious targets for that kind of deal.


I'd definitely prefer Orlando's picks. I don't want to make Sacramento better. I do think Atlanta's scouting team is really good too. So, Orlando's guys would pick the wingspan players because they're the former MIL guys?

Yes, Hammond is the new GM there - formerly of MIL - who prioritizes wingspan. Maybe THT excites him?


So he's got a shot at Gafford, Hayes, or Jalen Smith?

Just looking at names here, there aren't really any extraordinary guys that late in the draft in terms of measureables. Thybulle, PJ, Bruno, Azubuike seem to be the extraordinary ones by height.

http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

I dunno man, Jontay porter slotted at #20, could be had...
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:21 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Yes, Hammond is the new GM there - formerly of MIL - who prioritizes wingspan. Maybe THT excites him?


Jonathan Isaac, Wesley Iwundu, Mohamed Bamba, Melvin Frazier....eventually he is going to find a guy that can actually fly
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:22 pm    Post subject:

Christopher Walken wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
I think that if the Lakers traded down from their 1st and converted it into 2 2nd rounders (depending on the official declare list), that may optimize the value for this year's draft.

Good idea - Orlando (#34, #37), Sacramento (#40, #41, #58), Philly (#32, #48, #54) and Atlanta (#33, #42, #52) are the obvious targets for that kind of deal.


I'd definitely prefer Orlando's picks. I don't want to make Sacramento better. I do think Atlanta's scouting team is really good too. So, Orlando's guys would pick the wingspan players because they're the former MIL guys?

Yes, Hammond is the new GM there - formerly of MIL - who prioritizes wingspan. Maybe THT excites him?


So he's got a shot at Gafford, Hayes, or Jalen Smith?

Just looking at names here, there aren't really any extraordinary guys that late in the draft in terms of measureables. Thybulle, PJ, Bruno, Azubuike seem to be the extraordinary ones by height.

http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

I dunno man, Jontay porter slotted at #20, could be had...


Maybe I'm optimistic, but I don't think the Lakers get a #20 pick.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:26 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
at our projected slot, based on existing mocks, i'm targeting hayes, brazdeikis, and horton tucker.

that said, i think mike's on point, converting the 1st into 2 2nds gives us slightly better cap flexibility, and also will allow us to fill the roster easier after we lose most of the 1 year guys.


Am I hesitant on Hayes and Gafford because I don't think they're even strong players? Hayes is getting away with length and not fighting the post defensively from the limited sample I saw. Gafford, I guess I just expected more since there was some draft buzz from last year.

Also, Azubuike is played as an Iso post player, not a lob target, but if he played as one, why wouldn't he be considered up there with Hayes and Gafford?

I guess Hayes and Gafford can eventually switch defensively down the line, but I don't think it's to the detriment of roughly 20-30 draft spots.

I'd be interested in Synergy data on Azubuike's defense on shooters. It's not just potential defensive switchiness, Gafford and Hayes look to have far superior closeout and recovery speed. And with so many perimeter-oriented bigs these days, a center's ability to defend in space against his own man is pretty vital - maybe almost as vital as post strength.

On offense, we see the value difference in catch radius versus pure standing reach every day with JaVale versus an aging Tyson and ground-bound Zu. Azubuike looks to bring significantly less gravity as a roll man than Hayes or Gafford and I haven't seen signs that he's going to bring any notable skill on the short roll. Do you think Gafford and Hayes can't become effective screeners in the NBA?
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:29 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Yes, Hammond is the new GM there - formerly of MIL - who prioritizes wingspan. Maybe THT excites him?


Jonathan Isaac, Wesley Iwundu, Mohamed Bamba, Melvin Frazier....eventually he is going to find a guy that can actually fly

He should've listened to me and taken Wendell Carter at #6, though. Still a damn impressive wingspan even if not Bamba's historic reach.

I was thinking Coby White could be very fun there, but his -1 wingspan probably means he's not even on Hammond's scouting list.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:09 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
adkindo wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Yes, Hammond is the new GM there - formerly of MIL - who prioritizes wingspan. Maybe THT excites him?


Jonathan Isaac, Wesley Iwundu, Mohamed Bamba, Melvin Frazier....eventually he is going to find a guy that can actually fly

He should've listened to me and taken Wendell Carter at #6, though. Still a damn impressive wingspan even if not Bamba's historic reach.

I was thinking Coby White could be very fun there, but his -1 wingspan probably means he's not even on Hammond's scouting list.


yeah, I have heard even office staff have to have at least +3"
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:17 pm    Post subject:

I am not sure if CJ Massinburg (Buffalo) is even registering on mocks, but the Senior 6'3" SG continues to come up big for Buffalo. He had 25 Points, 8 Rebounds and 5 Assists last night in the win @ Syracuse. On the season, he is shooting 44% from 3....has a 64% True Shooting %, a 26.9 PER and a 12.2 BPM.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:28 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
adkindo wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Yes, Hammond is the new GM there - formerly of MIL - who prioritizes wingspan. Maybe THT excites him?


Jonathan Isaac, Wesley Iwundu, Mohamed Bamba, Melvin Frazier....eventually he is going to find a guy that can actually fly

He should've listened to me and taken Wendell Carter at #6, though. Still a damn impressive wingspan even if not Bamba's historic reach.

I was thinking Coby White could be very fun there, but his -1 wingspan probably means he's not even on Hammond's scouting list.


yeah, I have heard even office staff have to have at least +3"

Office staff?!

That sounds like the complaints of most of my dates *rimshot*
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Bard207
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:07 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
https://www.thestepien.com/2018/12/16/jackson-hoys-updated-top-100/

I agree with a lot of this list. Been working with @frontofficeeye and @zachmilner just keeping tabs on prospects on a google doc. No way we have time to operate a site.



I thought that I read elsewhere about @frontofficeeye sending in a report/analysis to a few teams about Garland.

Do teams take scouting reports from independents? If so, is there financial compensation or is feedback & information sharing the compensation?
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