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Wilt
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 Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:29 pm Post subject: |
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| 32 wrote: |
They sound pretty confident. |
I've felt more confident about Georgia than Florida for a while, since it's...Florida.
Now I don't know what to think. They certainly made some good points.
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32
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:18 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Muhlenberg College with a final PA poll: Biden+5, 49-44. They were at +7 about a week ago |
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322526772999708672?s=19
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trmiv
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:54 am Post subject: |
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About the same as their last one, but I’m still fully clenched over here. Let’s see what Monmouth says on Monday. |
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trmiv
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:09 am Post subject: |
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| It is interesting all the attention paid to Pennsylvania when Biden has a much better chance of winning Pennsylvania than Trump has of winning Texas, Georgia, Iowa, or Ohio. Hell Biden has the same lead in Pennsylvania that Trump has in Montana. |
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32
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:43 am Post subject: |
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The worst case scenario for Biden is he can lose PA and still have enough electoral votes by winning AZ and NE-2.
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:00 am Post subject: |
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| jodeke wrote: | | He's a Republican. I don't trust Republicans. |
| jodeke wrote: | | @32 I've been saying for quite a while Republicans would, sooner or later, turn on Trump. |
So you don't trust George Conway, one of the people behind The Lincoln Project because he's a Republican. Yet you have a belief that Republicans are going to turn on Trump on a meaningful way . . . that's a pretty incongruous set of positions there my man.
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:04 am Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: | | The Lebrons wrote: | | So say Biden wins and Dems win the Senate, and they aggressively pass legislation. How will the Never-Trumpers/Lincoln Project types react? |
My guess is by trying to stop or reverse it. Remember, they are merely trying to get rid of the people that threw them out of power in their party so they can take it back over. |
Yep. They are simply about taking power control of the Republican Party, not helping the Dems or their policies.
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You thought God was an architect, now you know
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Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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paymonM
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:08 am Post subject: |
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-election-biden-event-texas-134728851.html
US election: Biden event in Texas cancelled as 'armed' Trump supporters threaten campaign bus
Joe Biden campaigners were forced to cancel an event in Texas on Friday as tensions flared in the key battleground state ahead of election day.
Local Democrats said they were forced to pull the plug on a gathering scheduled to take place in Pflugerville – a small city about 17 miles north of Austin – due to "security reasons".
It came as vice-presidential candidate, senator Kamala Harris, completed a whistle-stop three-city tour of the Lone Star state in a last-minute bid for votes.
Traditionally a Republican stronghold, the battle for Texas's 38 electoral college votes is likely to go down to the wire.
President Trump has a slight lead in the state, according to FiveThirtyEight's latest poll update. But that advantage is within the margin of error and a Biden win in Texas could be key to his path to the White House.
Sheryl Cole, a Democrat running for re-election to Austin Council, said officials cancelled an event set to feature the city's young party members and the Biden campaign.
"This is a first for me," said Ms Cole of the decision to scrap the event. "Unfortunately, pro-Trump protesters have escalated well beyond safe limits. Sorry to all who looked forward to this fun event," she added. |
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kikanga
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:25 am Post subject: |
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| 32 wrote: | | The worst case scenario for Biden is he can lose PA and still have enough electoral votes by winning AZ and NE-2. |
I keep replying to your PA comments. Hope you don't think I'm being combative towards you. That's not my goal. We are on the same side.
But if Biden loses PA, that means he's failed with multiple demographics of voters. It means he hasn't turned out votes in more densely populated areas. And it means he hasn't eaten into a chunk of suburban voters.
So in that case (where he loses PA). AZ is ALOT closer than current polls. And he's definitely not winning any part of Nebraska. One of those NE districts (NE-3) is the safest place to go Trump to date.
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Last edited by kikanga on Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:30 am; edited 2 times in total |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:27 am Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | 32 wrote: | | The worst case scenario for Biden is he can lose PA and still have enough electoral votes by winning AZ and NE-2. |
I keep replying to your PA comments. Hope you don't think I'm being combative towards you. That's not my goal. We are on the same side.
But if Biden loses PA, that means he's failed with multiple demographics of voters. It means he hasn't turned out votes in more densely populated areas. And it means he hasn't eaten into a chunk of suburban voters.
So in that case (where he loses PA). He's not winning AZ. And he's definitely not winning any part of Nebraska. One of those NE districts (NE-3) is the safest place to go Trump to date. |
That’s likely true, but it is also possible different demographics swing a little differently in different regions.
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kikanga
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:32 am Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | 32 wrote: | | The worst case scenario for Biden is he can lose PA and still have enough electoral votes by winning AZ and NE-2. |
I keep replying to your PA comments. Hope you don't think I'm being combative towards you. That's not my goal. We are on the same side.
But if Biden loses PA, that means he's failed with multiple demographics of voters. It means he hasn't turned out votes in more densely populated areas. And it means he hasn't eaten into a chunk of suburban voters.
So in that case (where he loses PA). He's not winning AZ. And he's definitely not winning any part of Nebraska. One of those NE districts (NE-3) is the safest place to go Trump to date. |
That’s likely true, but it is also possible different demographics swing a little differently in different regions. |
I mean ... sure. To a small percentage. Fracking is PA specific. They care less about immigration compared to swing border states (like somehow Texas is does).
I think we mostly agree.
I just think PA is a bellwether state. Whomever won PA has won the Electoral College in 2008, 2012, and 2016. They aren't the only state that is true. But they are probably 1 of 5ish states that it is.
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Last edited by kikanga on Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:38 am; edited 1 time in total |
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:35 am Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | 32 wrote: | | The worst case scenario for Biden is he can lose PA and still have enough electoral votes by winning AZ and NE-2. |
I keep replying to your PA comments. Hope you don't think I'm being combative towards you. That's not my goal. We are on the same side.
But if Biden loses PA, that means he's failed with multiple demographics of voters. It means he hasn't turned out votes in more densely populated areas. And it means he hasn't eaten into a chunk of suburban voters.
So in that case (where he loses PA). AZ is ALOT closer than current polls. And he's definitely not winning any part of Nebraska. One of those NE districts (NE-3) is the safest place to go Trump to date. |
Or it means local GOP operatives and DeJoy's postal-service-sabotage successfully suppressed/threw out/refused to count enough Democratic votes to steal the election. And every state is different. |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:38 am Post subject: |
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Pennsylvania is a bellwether primarily because it is one of the most likely states to go either way and the electoral college majority tends to swing on a few such states. But the map is changing.
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kikanga
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:42 am Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: | | Pennsylvania is a bellwether primarily because it is one of the most likely states to go either way and the electoral college majority tends to swing on a few such states. But the map is changing. |
If you just show me who won PA or Florida the last 3 elections. And showed me nothing else. I could tell you who won.
That is what I'd define as bellwether.
But you aren't wrong about the map changing. We're seeing that in Ohio. This will probably be the 1st time in 20 years where Ohio will vote for the candidate who loses the Electoral college on election night.
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trmiv
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kikanga
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:46 am Post subject: |
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| ChefLinda wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | 32 wrote: | | The worst case scenario for Biden is he can lose PA and still have enough electoral votes by winning AZ and NE-2. |
I keep replying to your PA comments. Hope you don't think I'm being combative towards you. That's not my goal. We are on the same side.
But if Biden loses PA, that means he's failed with multiple demographics of voters. It means he hasn't turned out votes in more densely populated areas. And it means he hasn't eaten into a chunk of suburban voters.
So in that case (where he loses PA). AZ is ALOT closer than current polls. And he's definitely not winning any part of Nebraska. One of those NE districts (NE-3) is the safest place to go Trump to date. |
Or it means local GOP operatives and DeJoy's postal-service-sabotage successfully suppressed/threw out/refused to count enough Democratic votes to steal the election. And every state is different. |
Yes every state is different. But that actually reinforces my point. PA has a Democratic Governor Republican Legislature.
AZ has a Republican trifecta (Republican Governor, both houses of State Congress Republican).
And I'm not gonna even bother looking up Nebraska's Districts. Their EC votes are minuscule. And that state is overwhelmingly conservative.
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trmiv
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governator
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:53 am Post subject: |
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| paymonM wrote: | https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-election-biden-event-texas-134728851.html
US election: Biden event in Texas cancelled as 'armed' Trump supporters threaten campaign bus
Joe Biden campaigners were forced to cancel an event in Texas on Friday as tensions flared in the key battleground state ahead of election day.
Local Democrats said they were forced to pull the plug on a gathering scheduled to take place in Pflugerville – a small city about 17 miles north of Austin – due to "security reasons".
It came as vice-presidential candidate, senator Kamala Harris, completed a whistle-stop three-city tour of the Lone Star state in a last-minute bid for votes.
Traditionally a Republican stronghold, the battle for Texas's 38 electoral college votes is likely to go down to the wire.
President Trump has a slight lead in the state, according to FiveThirtyEight's latest poll update. But that advantage is within the margin of error and a Biden win in Texas could be key to his path to the White House.
Sheryl Cole, a Democrat running for re-election to Austin Council, said officials cancelled an event set to feature the city's young party members and the Biden campaign.
"This is a first for me," said Ms Cole of the decision to scrap the event. "Unfortunately, pro-Trump protesters have escalated well beyond safe limits. Sorry to all who looked forward to this fun event," she added. |
If Texas turns blue then GOP's only future play is to break up the electoral college from states to districts and gerry mander even harder |
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32
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:20 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | The @FiveThirtyEight aggregator shows Biden at +8.6. (51.9/43.3) Here’s what previous +7 to +10 popular vote margins looked like in Electoral college:
1980: 51/41 489/49
1988: 53/46 426/111
1996: 49/41 379/159
2008: 53/46 365/173 |
https://mobile.twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1322569899701641218
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:33 am Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | ChefLinda wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | 32 wrote: | | The worst case scenario for Biden is he can lose PA and still have enough electoral votes by winning AZ and NE-2. |
I keep replying to your PA comments. Hope you don't think I'm being combative towards you. That's not my goal. We are on the same side.
But if Biden loses PA, that means he's failed with multiple demographics of voters. It means he hasn't turned out votes in more densely populated areas. And it means he hasn't eaten into a chunk of suburban voters.
So in that case (where he loses PA). AZ is ALOT closer than current polls. And he's definitely not winning any part of Nebraska. One of those NE districts (NE-3) is the safest place to go Trump to date. |
Or it means local GOP operatives and DeJoy's postal-service-sabotage successfully suppressed/threw out/refused to count enough Democratic votes to steal the election. And every state is different. |
Yes every state is different. But that actually reinforces my point. PA has a Democratic Governor Republican Legislature.
AZ has a Republican trifecta (Republican Governor, both houses of State Congress Republican).
And I'm not gonna even bother looking up Nebraska's Districts. Their EC votes are minuscule. And that state is overwhelmingly conservative. |
But the *laws* governing voting and vote counting are different in every state. Just like having a Democratic governor is no guarantee of a Democratic outcome, having a Republican governor is no guarantee of a Republican outcome.
Last edited by ChefLinda on Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:37 am; edited 1 time in total |
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trmiv
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JamezAmp
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:46 am Post subject: |
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It’s only Saturday and I’m already nervous as (bleep). Game 7 feel 
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jodeke
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:05 am Post subject: |
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Listening to Trump on the stump. It's the same ol $hit. Selling fear and division. I didn't listen long, he literally turns my stomach. 
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32
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:20 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Final @ppppolls poll of Texas:
@joebiden
50
@realDonaldTrump
48 |
https://twitter.com/evanasmith/status/1322572492880433153
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:24 am Post subject: |
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Fwiw, I’ve been feeling that Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio (which went first) have actually been drifting redder over recent years, while Virginia, North Carolina, Arizona, Texas, Colorado, Nevada, and evening places like Georgia are drifting more blue. The blue wall is likely to widen in the west and shift down the Atlantic instead of across the upper Midwest.
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