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DrDent
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 Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:28 am Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: | | Lonzo-Lite wrote: | | Freddie Buckets wrote: | | governator wrote: | | So there’s nothing to stop The SC confirmation? |
correct |
How will Amy Barrett Cohen help Trump’s wishful re-election? What’s Trump’s game here? |
She can rule in his favor in a court fight. |
Yep. And it is also a way to push forward a more conservative agenda when things are taken to the high court, gives more of his base a rationale to support him, and is also a possible final "middle finger" blast if he goes out the door.
So the first part of my pollyana future hope [somehow she is not confirmed] is dead. So here's the second part, it is to give hope:
We can safely guesstimate on the ACA and other hot topic issues:
Justices Breyer, Sotomeyer, and Kagan uphold it.
Thomas will not
Roberts likely will uphold it
That leaves Alito, Kavanaugh, Gorsuch, and...Barret
I will assume Barrett goes with Thomas
Alito may still be an unknown?
Kavanaugh and Gorsuch, I have not peered into that too much other than a quick view, but I would venture to say we really do not know which way they may go. Some Supreme Court commentators have said new justices, on tricky issues, sometimes follow the lead of the Chief Justice (Roberts) until they find their own voice.
I mean, we've already seen Kavanaugh and Gorsuch not completely side with the president's agenda on everything (taxes).
So this may not yet be the fait accompli.
Dare to hope? |
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SweetP
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Location: My own little piece of reality
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:30 am Post subject: |
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| ChefLinda wrote: |
He is killing people and he doesn't care. |
More than doesn't care, I think he's enjoying it.
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32
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:43 am Post subject: |
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Trump got good polling numbers in Texas today according to Nate silver. Right now it's not looking good for Biden.
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DrDent
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:48 am Post subject: |
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| 32 wrote: | | Trump got good polling numbers in Texas today according to Nate silver. Right now it's not looking good for Biden. |
In what context? Texas or the election as a whole? |
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trmiv
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:51 am Post subject: |
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| Let’s face it, Biden was never going to win Texas. Two polls today for Trump have him at +4 and +5 there, which given he won it by 9 points in 2016 is probably a safe bet. But the 538 average for Texas is about 1.5% for Trump, which is similar to what Cruz beat Beto by. If Texas is that close, Trump is going to get smashed nationwide |
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SweetP
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:03 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Josh Marshall @joshtpm
Jared on black folks: "President Trump's policies are the policies that can help people break out of the problems that they're complaining about but he can't want them to be successful more than that they want to be successful " |
The entitled little turd whose entire life is built on nepotism says black people just need to want to be successful more.
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“There is always light if only we're brave enough to see it, if only we're brave enough to be it.” --Amanda Gorman |
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:10 am Post subject: |
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| trmiv wrote: | | Well if you want to worry a bit a B- rated pollster released a poll today showing Trump up 2% in Pennsylvania. Biden was +3 in this poll previously. This poll was done for a conservative organization, but it was done by a decently rated independent pollster. Meanwhile other polls showing a decent Biden lead. Not something to go crazy over, but certainly something to watch with how important Pennsylvania is going to be. |
As I said after the last debate, his calmer demeanor was going to be reflected in the reaction of those wavering. There are definitely people looking for ways to justify voting for Trump. If he can keep himself on the rails, that last debate performance is going to weigh favorably in those decisions.
_________________
You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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32
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:12 am Post subject: |
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| DrDent wrote: | | 32 wrote: | | Trump got good polling numbers in Texas today according to Nate silver. Right now it's not looking good for Biden. |
In what context? Texas or the election as a whole? |
Just Texas. I was hoping Biden could take it. The general election still looks good for Biden.
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trmiv
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:17 am Post subject: |
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| DaMuleRules wrote: | | trmiv wrote: | | Well if you want to worry a bit a B- rated pollster released a poll today showing Trump up 2% in Pennsylvania. Biden was +3 in this poll previously. This poll was done for a conservative organization, but it was done by a decently rated independent pollster. Meanwhile other polls showing a decent Biden lead. Not something to go crazy over, but certainly something to watch with how important Pennsylvania is going to be. |
As I said after the last debate, his calmer demeanor was going to be reflected in the reaction of those wavering. There are definitely people looking for ways to justify voting for Trump. If he can keep himself on the rails, that last debate performance is going to weigh favorably in those decisions. |
Well before we jump off a cliff, Insider Advantage is a rather partisan pollster that does polls almost exclusively for conservatives. They are usually used as the main pollster for Hannity, and this particular poll was conducted for “The Center American Greatness” so you can draw your own conclusions there. It also polled 400 people, and the cross tabs have Trump winning the 18-44 vote by over 6%.
If you want to discuss the debate and how it’s changed since then, the IBD/TIPP poll which is poll that leans very conservative, showed a tightening race before the debate and has actually shown Biden increasing his lead post debate.
Last edited by trmiv on Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:20 am; edited 1 time in total |
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DrDent
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:18 am Post subject: |
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| 32 wrote: | | DrDent wrote: | | 32 wrote: | | Trump got good polling numbers in Texas today according to Nate silver. Right now it's not looking good for Biden. |
In what context? Texas or the election as a whole? |
Just Texas. I was hoping Biden could take it. The general election still looks good for Biden. |
Thanks - yea, I looked at that State as a reach to begin with. |
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jodeke
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:18 am Post subject: |
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I hoped the flood of Californians moving to Texas would make a difference.
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America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves. |
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DrDent
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:20 am Post subject: |
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| DaMuleRules wrote: | | trmiv wrote: | | Well if you want to worry a bit a B- rated pollster released a poll today showing Trump up 2% in Pennsylvania. Biden was +3 in this poll previously. This poll was done for a conservative organization, but it was done by a decently rated independent pollster. Meanwhile other polls showing a decent Biden lead. Not something to go crazy over, but certainly something to watch with how important Pennsylvania is going to be. |
As I said after the last debate, his calmer demeanor was going to be reflected in the reaction of those wavering. There are definitely people looking for ways to justify voting for Trump. If he can keep himself on the rails, that last debate performance is going to weigh favorably in those decisions. |
Of interest, today is first time I can recall in awhile where I checked 538 and there was a slight adjustment in Trump's favor. For weeks now Biden's odds were creeping up and up to an 87% favorite to win. Today, that went to 86%. Not much but perhaps reflects your assessment. |
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jodeke
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:24 am Post subject: |
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ELECTION COUNTDOWN
IT'S NOT TO LATE, REGISTER, GET OUT AND VOTE!!
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Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.
America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves. |
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trmiv
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:25 am Post subject: |
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| DrDent wrote: | | DaMuleRules wrote: | | trmiv wrote: | | Well if you want to worry a bit a B- rated pollster released a poll today showing Trump up 2% in Pennsylvania. Biden was +3 in this poll previously. This poll was done for a conservative organization, but it was done by a decently rated independent pollster. Meanwhile other polls showing a decent Biden lead. Not something to go crazy over, but certainly something to watch with how important Pennsylvania is going to be. |
As I said after the last debate, his calmer demeanor was going to be reflected in the reaction of those wavering. There are definitely people looking for ways to justify voting for Trump. If he can keep himself on the rails, that last debate performance is going to weigh favorably in those decisions. |
Of interest, today is first time I can recall in awhile where I checked 538 and there was a slight adjustment in Trump's favor. For weeks now Biden's odds were creeping up and up to an 87% favorite to win. Today, that went to 86%. Not much but perhaps reflects your assessment. |
Nate Silver addressed this previously. There are older polls falling out of the model due to age, which is causing a shift in the national numbers to where it probably ends up, right around Biden +8.5-9 |
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DrDent
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:26 am Post subject: |
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| jodeke wrote: | | I hoped the flood of Californians moving to Texas would make a difference. |
Perhaps it did, just not in the manner you'd like:
Per Nate Silver's twitter (20 hours ago):
| Quote: | I suppose I'd note here that our *forecast* still has Trump favored in Texas, in part because it has strict voting laws (one of the few states without no-excuse absentee voting) but Biden's chances there (38%) are the highest they've been all cycle.
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kikanga
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:26 am Post subject: |
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| SGV-Laker fan wrote: | | I have zero trust in polls. I truly believe people are under estimate closet Trump voters. they would tell their friends and family the other way, but vote for Trump ultimately. There are a ton of these people out there. |
| DaMuleRules wrote: | | As I said after the last debate, his calmer demeanor was going to be reflected in the reaction of those wavering. There are definitely people looking for ways to justify voting for Trump. If he can keep himself on the rails, that last debate performance is going to weigh favorably in those decisions. |
I truly hate Americans sometimes. I wish I wasn't one. Than I could laugh at their self-destructive nature from afar.
1/4 of a million citizens unnecessarily dead. And the race is still tight.
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trmiv
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:29 am Post subject: |
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One thing I find interesting about 538 is how they pick the polls for the state probability. If you look at Pennsylvania, that partisan Insider Advantage poll dropped Biden’s chances there from 86 to 84. But there was a YouGuv poll today for Pennsylvania showing Biden up +7 which isn’t included in the model at all.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
There’s an IPSOS poll conducted post debate coming out later today which should show better there the race is in PA. So pucker your butts!  |
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jodeke
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:32 am Post subject: |
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| DrDent wrote: | | jodeke wrote: | | I hoped the flood of Californians moving to Texas would make a difference. |
Perhaps it did, just not in the manner you'd like:
Per Nate Silver's twitter (20 hours ago):
| Quote: | I suppose I'd note here that our *forecast* still has Trump favored in Texas, in part because it has strict voting laws (one of the few states without no-excuse absentee voting) but Biden's chances there (38%) are the highest they've been all cycle.
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Are you implying Californians are voting for Trump or that I'm a Trumpster?
_________________
Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.
America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.
Last edited by jodeke on Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:33 am; edited 1 time in total |
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DrDent
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:33 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Nate Silver addressed this previously. There are older polls falling out of the model due to age, which is causing a shift in the national numbers to where it probably ends up, right around Biden +8.5-9 |
Tx. |
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trmiv
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:34 am Post subject: |
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IPSOS/Reuters poll out for WI and PA
Wisconsin:
Biden 53
Trump 44
This is up from 51/43 last week
Pennsylvania
Biden 50
Trump 45
This is up from 49/45 last week. |
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:36 am Post subject: |
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| DrDent wrote: | | DaMuleRules wrote: | | trmiv wrote: | | Well if you want to worry a bit a B- rated pollster released a poll today showing Trump up 2% in Pennsylvania. Biden was +3 in this poll previously. This poll was done for a conservative organization, but it was done by a decently rated independent pollster. Meanwhile other polls showing a decent Biden lead. Not something to go crazy over, but certainly something to watch with how important Pennsylvania is going to be. |
As I said after the last debate, his calmer demeanor was going to be reflected in the reaction of those wavering. There are definitely people looking for ways to justify voting for Trump. If he can keep himself on the rails, that last debate performance is going to weigh favorably in those decisions. |
Of interest, today is first time I can recall in awhile where I checked 538 and there was a slight adjustment in Trump's favor. For weeks now Biden's odds were creeping up and up to an 87% favorite to win. Today, that went to 86%. Not much but perhaps reflects your assessment. |
More of a hunch than an assessment. I doubt that any such move would be drastically influential on the end result. My overall concern is that a few minor factors combine into a more significant shift collectively that makes things closer than they appear on the day.
Likely more paranoia on my part than imminent threat . . . but it does keep me a bit apprehensive none the less.
_________________
You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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DrDent
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:38 am Post subject: |
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| jodeke wrote: | | DrDent wrote: | | jodeke wrote: | | I hoped the flood of Californians moving to Texas would make a difference. |
Perhaps it did, just not in the manner you'd like:
Per Nate Silver's twitter (20 hours ago):
| Quote: | I suppose I'd note here that our *forecast* still has Trump favored in Texas, in part because it has strict voting laws (one of the few states without no-excuse absentee voting) but Biden's chances there (38%) are the highest they've been all cycle.
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Are you implying Californians are voting for Trump or that I'm a Trumpster? |
LOL, sorry, I could have written that better.
I was suggesting this arguably supported your view that Californians entering the State made a difference in Biden support, just not as much as desired.
Having been somewhat active on this list I know you are not pro-Trump  |
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:38 am Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | SGV-Laker fan wrote: | | I have zero trust in polls. I truly believe people are under estimate closet Trump voters. they would tell their friends and family the other way, but vote for Trump ultimately. There are a ton of these people out there. |
| DaMuleRules wrote: | | As I said after the last debate, his calmer demeanor was going to be reflected in the reaction of those wavering. There are definitely people looking for ways to justify voting for Trump. If he can keep himself on the rails, that last debate performance is going to weigh favorably in those decisions. |
I truly hate Americans sometimes. I wish I wasn't one. Than I could laugh at their self-destructive nature from afar.
1/4 of a million citizens unnecessarily dead. And the race is still tight. |
One of the biggest indictments of the country's citizens . . . at a time that has several really damning ones . . .
_________________
You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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32
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:40 am Post subject: |
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According to Sliver, the Dems have a 71% chance of a clean sweep right now.
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governator
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:42 am Post subject: |
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Never got my ballot, just went in to pick it up  (blue state tho) |
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