The House Democrats passed the COVID relief "Heroes Act" in March and MoscowMitch couldn't find time to vote on it. However they will be voting on this tomorrow night.
Quote:
NPR Politics @nprpolitics
JUST IN:
By a 51-48 count, the U.S. Senate has voted to limit debate on Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett.
That sets up a final confirmation vote, planned for tomorrow evening.
Trafalgar is one of those "shy Trump voter" polling companies that keep publishing polls where Trump is ahead in every swing state. Nate Silver tweeted about their crosstabs and none of them make any sense. So a few hours later, Trafalgar decides to take down that crosstab information and the link to it is dead.
Shy Trump voters may have been a thing in 2016 but they sure as hell aren't in 2020. Also, why would a Trump supporter be afraid to tell a pollster they're voting for Trump?
Joined: 10 Dec 2006 Posts: 52648 Location: Making a safety stop at 15 feet.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:55 am Post subject:
Freddie Buckets wrote:
Wilt wrote:
Trafalgar is one of those "shy Trump voter" polling companies that keep publishing polls where Trump is ahead in every swing state. Nate Silver tweeted about their crosstabs and none of them make any sense. So a few hours later, Trafalgar decides to take down that crosstab information and the link to it is dead.
Shy Trump voters may have been a thing in 2016 but they sure as hell aren't in 2020. Also, why would a Trump supporter be afraid to tell a pollster they're voting for Trump?
I think it is quite the opposite. In 2016, there weren’t really a lot of people who were shy about openly voting for Trump because in their mind, he wasn’t a politician and was better than Clinton because he was “honest” and direct. Now, he is clearly infinitely worse and more dangerous to the country than even the worst predictions. Of course there’s more reason to be shy and secretive about the intent to vote for him again. That’s the main reason I have been cautious about taking the polling at face value. _________________ You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Trump voters in 2016 who will still vote for him in 2020 after what transpired the last 4 years, especially the last 10 months, can only be dumb or evil, or both. _________________ “Properly read, the bible is the most potent force for atheism ever conceived.”
― Isaac Asimov
Joined: 23 Jun 2005 Posts: 6054 Location: My own little piece of reality
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:28 pm Post subject:
Quote:
CNN has learned Zach Bauer, Pence's "body man," is one of the staffers who has tested positive for coronavirus. In his role, Bauer's job is to accompany the VP throughout the day and night helping him with a wide range of duties, putting him in close proximity to Pence.
At least 5 of Pence's inner circle including his chief of staff, a top advisor and his "body man" have tested positive now and Pence flies around the country without a mask. Knowing he will get top care if he shows any symptoms and not giving a (bleep) about the people he comes in contact with. _________________ “There is always light if only we're brave enough to see it, if only we're brave enough to be it.” --Amanda Gorman
Trafalgar is one of those "shy Trump voter" polling companies that keep publishing polls where Trump is ahead in every swing state. Nate Silver tweeted about their crosstabs and none of them make any sense. So a few hours later, Trafalgar decides to take down that crosstab information and the link to it is dead.
Shy Trump voters may have been a thing in 2016 but they sure as hell aren't in 2020. Also, why would a Trump supporter be afraid to tell a pollster they're voting for Trump?
I think it is quite the opposite. In 2016, there weren’t really a lot of people who were shy about openly voting for Trump because in their mind, he wasn’t a politician and was better than Clinton because he was “honest” and direct. Now, he is clearly infinitely worse and more dangerous to the country than even the worst predictions. Of course there’s more reason to be shy and secretive about the intent to vote for him again. That’s the main reason I have been cautious about taking the polling at face value.
The Trump supporters who plan on voting for him don't seem him as dangerous and think he's done a great job. The ones I've encountered tell me he's handled everything perfectly. I just don't think there are many shy Trump voters
If the hidden Trump vote was an actual thing, we'd be seeing other Republican candidates running much stronger than Trump. But they're running about the same. _________________ ¡Hala Madrid!
@LarrySabato’s Crystal Ball this week shifted the Iowa race from 'tossup' to 'leans Democratic,' ...pinpointing Iowa as the seat most likely to tip the Senate." For more, watch the newest edition of Sabato's Crystal Ball here:
On the rare occasions I headed outside recently have seen a pick up truck driving around waving the Trump flags loud and proud...never see any fanfare for Biden/Harris. Still though more a sign of desperation knowing their side is losing and trying to swing any last minute undecideds?
On the rare occasions I headed outside recently have seen a pick up truck driving around waving the Trump flags loud and proud...never see any fanfare for Biden/Harris. Still though more a sign of desperation knowing their side is losing and trying to swing any last minute undecideds?
Go to the last page where I posted exactly what you describe. _________________ ¡Hala Madrid!
What I'm concerned about is some kind of announcement like the Comey announcement in 2016 that won the election for Trump. I would watch out for Barr and Ratcliffe in the coming days. Something like that has the potential to turn the election in Trump's favor again. _________________ Nobody in the NBA can touch the Laker brand, which, like the uniform color, is pure gold.
On the rare occasions I headed outside recently have seen a pick up truck driving around waving the Trump flags loud and proud...never see any fanfare for Biden/Harris. Still though more a sign of desperation knowing their side is losing and trying to swing any last minute undecideds?
Go to the last page where I posted exactly what you describe.
Yes awesome stuff but I'm in a relatively Blue area in the LA/Ventura County border and nothing but Trump support, at least visibly..
Joined: 17 Nov 2007 Posts: 67574 Location: In a world where admitting to not knowing something is considered a great way to learn.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:32 pm Post subject:
FernieBee wrote:
just read that New Yorker article...THANKS...
I read it too. It's troubling. Puts pressure on the military. If they stand behind Trump we'll be in trouble. I think military leaders will side with the president elect. _________________ Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.
America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.
Last edited by jodeke on Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:20 am; edited 2 times in total
What I'm concerned about is some kind of announcement like the Comey announcement in 2016 that won the election for Trump. I would watch out for Barr and Ratcliffe in the coming days. Something like that has the potential to turn the election in Trump's favor again.
Comey's letter worked because there was a high number of undecideds who were looking for any reason not to vote for Hillary. It reinforced a certain perception about her (which wasn't based on reality, of course). Biden is a different candidate, 2020 is a different year, and there are far more important things for people to worry about than a calculated last second scandal.
The only way he can win now is a massive polling error (much bigger than the one in 2016), plus subsequent cheating. _________________ ¡Hala Madrid!
On the rare occasions I headed outside recently have seen a pick up truck driving around waving the Trump flags loud and proud...never see any fanfare for Biden/Harris. Still though more a sign of desperation knowing their side is losing and trying to swing any last minute undecideds?
Go to the last page where I posted exactly what you describe.
Yes awesome stuff but I'm in a relatively Blue area in the LA/Ventura County border and nothing but Trump support, at least visibly..
Which tells you that all that visible support means little if you're surrounded by much larger numbers of people who will vote and show their numbers that way, especially during a pandemic. _________________ ¡Hala Madrid!
Joined: 10 Dec 2006 Posts: 52648 Location: Making a safety stop at 15 feet.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:51 pm Post subject:
There are Republicans outside of his hardcore base who see him to be beneficial to one or two issues that are important to them, but are aware of the downsides he brings and the division and chaos that come with those. But they view them as “necessary” evils but may not want to outwardly acknowledge it. This is evident in the Republicans who have public exposure and who as a result try to appear distant from him, but when push comes to shove, quietly continue to enable him. This is bound to translate to private citizens who are uncomfortable with the most of the package that Trump presents, but are focused on things that they want, like a refusal to shutdown during Covid etc. These are the people who will say to a pollster that they don’t support Trump to save face but know full well that they plan to vote for him. Then there are the alleged “undecideds” who claim they haven’t made up their mind, but in truth have. They just don’t want to admit they have to done so in favor of Trump. That would be the only reason to be undecided at this point. Yes, I am aware that there were 11 undecideds interviewed by CNN right after the last debate who polled as 9-2 in favor of Biden, but that is teeny tiny sample and given the context, probably leaned Biden anyway and was about appearances rather than an accurate reflection of where the “undecideds” truly lie.
EDIT: replied to the wrong post. But I think people can tell what this was in response to. _________________ You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now
Last edited by DaMuleRules on Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: 10 Dec 2006 Posts: 52648 Location: Making a safety stop at 15 feet.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:52 pm Post subject:
Wilt wrote:
If the hidden Trump vote was an actual thing, we'd be seeing other Republican candidates running much stronger than Trump. But they're running about the same.
Apples to oranges. _________________ You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Joined: 10 Dec 2006 Posts: 52648 Location: Making a safety stop at 15 feet.
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:58 pm Post subject:
32 wrote:
What I'm concerned about is some kind of announcement like the Comey announcement in 2016 that won the election for Trump. I would watch out for Barr and Ratcliffe in the coming days. Something like that has the potential to turn the election in Trump's favor again.
Even without that kind of last moment attempt at a bombshell, they are already successfully selling their spin that the best approach to Covid is to end the restrictions and just make do until there’s a vaccine. I’ve seen this manifested in moderate friends who are saying we need to avoid mandates and shut downs and just get back to normal until we have a vaccine because they see it as financially beneficial despite the risks. _________________ You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
The latest Trump vs. Biden poll from IBD/TIPP finds former Vice President Joe Biden solidifying his lead over President Donald Trump with just nine days to go. The tracking poll's two days of polling since the final debate indicate no movement toward Trump, the IBD/TIPP presidential poll update shows.
The latest 2020 election poll update shows the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 7.2 points, 51.6%-44.4%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 1.6%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.8%.
"Our data do not support any gain for Trump from the debate," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, IBD's polling partner. The IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll covers five days of interviews, including three before Thursday night's presidential debate.
_________________ Nobody in the NBA can touch the Laker brand, which, like the uniform color, is pure gold.
The latest Trump vs. Biden poll from IBD/TIPP finds former Vice President Joe Biden solidifying his lead over President Donald Trump with just nine days to go. The tracking poll's two days of polling since the final debate indicate no movement toward Trump, the IBD/TIPP presidential poll update shows.
The latest 2020 election poll update shows the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 7.2 points, 51.6%-44.4%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 1.6%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.8%.
"Our data do not support any gain for Trump from the debate," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, IBD's polling partner. The IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll covers five days of interviews, including three before Thursday night's presidential debate.
And that's one of his friendliest pollsters.
As I said after the debate, there would be no true bump.
David Plouffe, who knows these things well, has been saying this for weeks: Trump needs to increase his support, decrease Biden's support, have a massive turnout on his side, and have a lower than expected turnout on our side. In other words, for him to win the election, he would need an even more perfect night than he did in 2016 against an opponent with higher favorable ratings and without decades of baggage in an environment with fewer undecideds. It's not impossible, but the chances of that happening get lower with each passing day. _________________ ¡Hala Madrid!
Joined: 23 Jun 2005 Posts: 6054 Location: My own little piece of reality
Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:36 pm Post subject:
Quote:
Jonathan Swan @jonathanvswan
“If President Trump wins re-election, he'll move to immediately fire FBI Director Christopher Wray and also expects to replace CIA Director Gina Haspel and Defense Secretary Mark Esper.”
Wonder if he will try it during the lame duck period if he loses? As a way to damage all the agencies on the way out and leave them without leadership during the transition. And to "punish" Wray, who would normally be kept on, for not investigating Trump's opponents. _________________ “There is always light if only we're brave enough to see it, if only we're brave enough to be it.” --Amanda Gorman
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