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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:44 pm    Post subject:

ChefLinda wrote:
Quote:
Natalie Andrews @nataliewsj

NEW: Sen. Feinstein loses the support of abortion rights group NARAL, says the top Dem on Judiciary "offered an appearance of credibility to the proceedings that is wildly out of step with the American people. As such, we believe the committee needs new leadership."


Unforgivable and inexcusable behavior by Feinstein.

I still can't believe what she did.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:12 pm    Post subject:

Trump files emergency request to stop release of his tax returns


hmm
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:20 pm    Post subject:

ChefLinda wrote:
Quote:
Natalie Andrews @nataliewsj

NEW: Sen. Feinstein loses the support of abortion rights group NARAL, says the top Dem on Judiciary "offered an appearance of credibility to the proceedings that is wildly out of step with the American people. As such, we believe the committee needs new leadership."


The freakin' state of California needs a new senator.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:07 pm    Post subject:

I'm fairly certain the vast majority of the people who post in this thread look at FiveThirtyEight regularly. As many probably have seen, they are forecasting the chances of Biden winning at 87%.

The Economist (a highly respected, and if anything, slightly economically conservative magazine) also forecasts using similar metrics for their model.

They forecast the chances of Biden winning at 91% (and the Dems with a 75% chance of winning the Senate.)
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:18 pm    Post subject:

ribeye wrote:
I'm fairly certain the vast majority of the people who post in this thread look at FiveThirtyEight regularly. As many probably have seen, they are forecasting the chances of Biden winning at 87%.

The Economist (a highly respected, and if anything, slightly economically conservative magazine) also forecasts using similar metrics for their model.

They forecast the chances of Biden winning at 91% (and the Dems with a 75% chance of winning the Senate.)


I get people want to get an idea of how the nation's voters are leaning . . . fair enough

But any projection of the chances of the outcome have been questionable for a while. And certainly more so now . . . in an election where there are clearly voter suppression efforts going on in key states, there's clear complicity on the part of the GOP to help Trump invalidate state returns and a threat to not count any votes after election night.

There's just no way to predict what will happen. Much less put a percentage on it.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:37 pm    Post subject:

DaMuleRules wrote:
ribeye wrote:
I'm fairly certain the vast majority of the people who post in this thread look at FiveThirtyEight regularly. As many probably have seen, they are forecasting the chances of Biden winning at 87%.

The Economist (a highly respected, and if anything, slightly economically conservative magazine) also forecasts using similar metrics for their model.

They forecast the chances of Biden winning at 91% (and the Dems with a 75% chance of winning the Senate.)


I get people want to get an idea of how the nation's voters are leaning . . . fair enough

But any projection of the chances of the outcome have been questionable for a while. And certainly more so now . . . in an election where there are clearly voter suppression efforts going on in key states, there's clear complicity on the part of the GOP to help Trump invalidate state returns and a threat to not count any votes after election night.

There's just no way to predict what will happen. Much less put a percentage on it.


There are many, including myself, who find value in such projections, that, actually, have been typically extremely accurate. That Comey's totally unnecessary interference, combined with Russia's attack on our election, swayed a bunch of undecided's to swing to Trump at the last minute, is the exception, not the norm.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:46 pm    Post subject:

ribeye wrote:
DaMuleRules wrote:
ribeye wrote:
I'm fairly certain the vast majority of the people who post in this thread look at FiveThirtyEight regularly. As many probably have seen, they are forecasting the chances of Biden winning at 87%.

The Economist (a highly respected, and if anything, slightly economically conservative magazine) also forecasts using similar metrics for their model.

They forecast the chances of Biden winning at 91% (and the Dems with a 75% chance of winning the Senate.)


I get people want to get an idea of how the nation's voters are leaning . . . fair enough

But any projection of the chances of the outcome have been questionable for a while. And certainly more so now . . . in an election where there are clearly voter suppression efforts going on in key states, there's clear complicity on the part of the GOP to help Trump invalidate state returns and a threat to not count any votes after election night.

There's just no way to predict what will happen. Much less put a percentage on it.


There are many, including myself, who find value in such projections, that, actually, have been typically extremely accurate. That Comey's totally unnecessary interference, combined with Russia's attack on our election, swayed a bunch of undecided's to swing to Trump at the last minute, is the exception, not the norm.


That may be, but you completely ignored the point of the post.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:25 pm    Post subject:

^
I don't think you're wrong to be concerned about the voter suppression efforts. Having said that, I am extremely encouraged by the early vote numbers, and that so many people have been willing to stand in lines for hours upon hours to cast their vote. I think it's possible that voter turnout is going to be extraordinary for this election, and if that happens, Trump can't win.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:25 pm    Post subject:

538's NBA playoff projections were atrocious this year. I know those projections were built with completely different models than what they use for politics. But the site did lose some credibility in my eyes (fair or not) after that.

It's not so much that the data they use is wrong. Or the way they use it is irresponsible. It's just the way they package and distribute their projections portrays a level of certainty that isn't true.

With that said, I think Biden is the favorite to win. Not a 85/15 favorite. But a favorite nonetheless.

I think we all can agree, with all the votes counted Biden will be declared the winner. And with all the votes counted, Trump will fight the election results tooth and nail. And there is a non-0% chance he succeeds at overturning the results.
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Last edited by kikanga on Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:28 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:27 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
^
I don't think you're wrong to be concerned about the voter suppression efforts. Having said that, I am extremely encouraged by the early vote numbers, and that so many people have been willing to stand in lines for hours upon hours to cast their vote. I think it's possible that voter turnout is going to be extraordinary for this election, and if that happens, Trump can't win.


There is a chance that despite early voting returns being historic (averaging a million a day last time I checked), the overall turnout (counting election day) could be similar to 2016. I don't think that's the case. But it is a possibility.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:03 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
^
I don't think you're wrong to be concerned about the voter suppression efforts. Having said that, I am extremely encouraged by the early vote numbers, and that so many people have been willing to stand in lines for hours upon hours to cast their vote. I think it's possible that voter turnout is going to be extraordinary for this election, and if that happens, Trump can't win.


Oh believe me, I am thrilled and entirely encouraged by what is going on in regards to voter enthusiasm and turn out.

And I agree that in a normal situation, there'd be reason to be very confident in a Biden win.

But again, we are not in a normal situation. It's not just about the suppression efforts. It's about the stated goal by Trump to invalidate the results and the GOP's efforts to coordinate that very thing by ramming in a SCOTUS replacement who's clear intent is go facilitate it.

I wish it were as simple as saying "Trump can't win" or even that the odds are vastly not in his favor.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:08 pm    Post subject:

kikanga wrote:
538's NBA playoff projections were atrocious this year. I know those projections were built with completely different models than what they use for politics. But the site did lose some credibility in my eyes (fair or not) after that.

It's not so much that the data they use is wrong. Or the way they use it is irresponsible. It's just the way they package and distribute their projections portrays a level of certainty that isn't true.

With that said, I think Biden is the favorite to win. Not a 85/15 favorite. But a favorite nonetheless.

I think we all can agree, with all the votes counted Biden will be declared the winner. And with all the votes counted, Trump will fight the election results tooth and nail. And there is a non-0% chance he succeeds at overturning the results.


Even now, with everything that has happened, he still has an approval rating of over 40%.

And I don't think it is accurate to rate his chances of successfully stealing the election as low a non-0% chance. There is clearly a Republican effort to boost it much, much higher than that, and they have the mechanisms to pull it off.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:51 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
RickOrMattOrWhoeverHat @Popehat

The @nypost smirking at Biden telling his addicted, despairing son he loves him reminds me of @mercedesschlapp’s Mr. Rogers sneer: deeply (bleep) people showing their ass by ridiculing decency.


Quote:
A sad son is in rehab lamenting about how he (bleep) up and hurt his family.

Joe texts "Good morning my beautiful son. I miss you and love you. Dad".

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:11 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
Kelly O'Donnell
@KellyO
·
1h
Trump in Georgia on risk of losing: "I'm gonna say, I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politicsI'm not gonna feel so good. Maybe I'll have to leave the country. I don't know."

https://mobile.twitter.com/KellyO/status/1317264833771864064



Well, yeah he may try to flee because he’ll probably be facing jailtime.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:17 pm    Post subject:

I just got a text from the Registrar saying my ballot was received and will be counted. I'm assuming the same is true for the other two ballots I delivered for my mother and aunt.

Thanks to the ballot workers who were running things on Tuesday, at my local library branch (92113).


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:33 pm    Post subject:

XTC wrote:
Quote:
Kelly O'Donnell
@KellyO
·
1h
Trump in Georgia on risk of losing: "I'm gonna say, I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politicsI'm not gonna feel so good. Maybe I'll have to leave the country. I don't know."

https://mobile.twitter.com/KellyO/status/1317264833771864064



Well, yeah he may try to flee because he’ll probably be facing jailtime.


His big problem would be that no country other than NK would take him . . . an d in that case, let him flee.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:33 pm    Post subject:

FernieBee wrote:
I just got a text from the Registrar saying my ballot was received and will be counted. I'm assuming the same is true for the other two ballots I delivered for my mother and aunt.

Thanks to the ballot workers who were running things on Tuesday, at my local library branch (92113).




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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:51 pm    Post subject:

kikanga wrote:
538's NBA playoff projections were atrocious this year. I know those projections were built with completely different models than what they use for politics. But the site did lose some credibility in my eyes (fair or not) after that.

It's not so much that the data they use is wrong. Or the way they use it is irresponsible. It's just the way they package and distribute their projections portrays a level of certainty that isn't true.

With that said, I think Biden is the favorite to win. Not a 85/15 favorite. But a favorite nonetheless.

I think we all can agree, with all the votes counted Biden will be declared the winner. And with all the votes counted, Trump will fight the election results tooth and nail. And there is a non-0% chance he succeeds at overturning the results.


Honestly I dont even pay attention to their sports stuff, I just attribute polling related items to them and track that.

Even BBC has Trump behind, and they note how there was less certainty in 2016:https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-53657174

In no way will I pretend to be some political prediction guru, and there is still some time left, but right now there is just not the issues Hillary faced, nor that Trump is now facing:

2016
1. Hillary was, to many, controversial. While I and many I know took no issue with her, many did not like her for being a woman, staying with Uncle Bill, etc. She was held, in many (and unfair ways) to a different standard, and that did not help her. She has also had the whole Bhengazi ordeal hanging over her head.
2. As a result of #1 above, there were Obama voters who 1) did not vote, 2) or voted for someone else.
3. Trump was the "new face", some enjoyed his pomposity and brashness, figuring it was all an act (or just reveling in it). After all, he was a "profitable businessman" from a TV show...right?
4. The one big hit on Trump that had his campaign reeling for a couple days (the Billy Bush tape) they immediately did an end-around, flipped it on its head, and made it a non-factor to a number of folks by associating Hillary with her Husband's past misdeed(s) and/or accusers.
5. Comey's big blast (October 28) on Hillary with the "emails"
6. Trumps ad's did a fairly good job during that last month's push playing up the nationalistic pride card.

Fast forward to 2020...the above has essentially flipped, this time on Trump.

1) He is an incredibly divisive figure, and his antics and behavior have frankly just exhausted many.
2) Notable republicans are denouncing him AND ENDORSING Biden in droves.
3) Evangelicals cant stand Trump anymore.
4) Objectively, his handling of a number of issues, especially this year, has been atrocious and below amateur. Incompetence does not even begin to describe.
5) There is a galvanized force to set aside differences and get him the hell out of there.
6) Any attack he has tossed vs Biden has fallen like flat soda. No pop to it.
7) The ultimate slap in the face: Make no doubt he wanted a town hall time slot at same time as Biden so he could gloat about numbers. He believed he would win and could gloat and energize his base again...nope, wrong again. Folks want substance, not flatulence.

Ontop of allllll that is quite a favorable 538 showing, etc. Like I posted earlier, I believe he is done and it will be a landslide. 98.7% guaranteed. BUT will be keeping an eye on any Trump antics.

The biggest difference is - Biden has ALOT more good will at his disposal, and any attacks on him will take ALOT to remove enough of it of it to make a difference.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:53 pm    Post subject:

Uh, I was texting Texas through tx.textforvictory2020.com and I think I just canvassed Beto.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:16 pm    Post subject:

DaMuleRules wrote:
kikanga wrote:
538's NBA playoff projections were atrocious this year. I know those projections were built with completely different models than what they use for politics. But the site did lose some credibility in my eyes (fair or not) after that.

It's not so much that the data they use is wrong. Or the way they use it is irresponsible. It's just the way they package and distribute their projections portrays a level of certainty that isn't true.

With that said, I think Biden is the favorite to win. Not a 85/15 favorite. But a favorite nonetheless.

I think we all can agree, with all the votes counted Biden will be declared the winner. And with all the votes counted, Trump will fight the election results tooth and nail. And there is a non-0% chance he succeeds at overturning the results.


Even now, with everything that has happened, he still has an approval rating of over 40%.

And I don't think it is accurate to rate his chances of successfully stealing the election as low a non-0% chance. There is clearly a Republican effort to boost it much, much higher than that, and they have the mechanisms to pull it off.


Non-0% chance may seem low to you. And to BVH and Wilt that may sound like "doom porn". But non-0% can be 5% or it could be 50%. What I really want everyone to take from it is. No matter what the results show after election day or several days later. Trump may still steal this election. Not saying it will definitely happen. Not saying it definitely won't happen. He will try. We will all find out together whether he succeeds.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:20 pm    Post subject:

XTC wrote:
Quote:
Kelly O'Donnell
@KellyO
·
1h
Trump in Georgia on risk of losing: "I'm gonna say, I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politicsI'm not gonna feel so good. Maybe I'll have to leave the country. I don't know."

https://mobile.twitter.com/KellyO/status/1317264833771864064



Well, yeah he may try to flee because he’ll probably be facing jailtime.


It’s cute that he thinks he’d be allowed to leave, or that he wouldn’t be extradited. First there’s no way US Intelligence and the Secret Service is letting a former president flee the country and risk him being picked up by a hostile nation and interrogated. Second if he somehow did leave, I don’t think there’s a country outside of maybe North Korea that wouldn’t extradite him when he’s facing charges here.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:35 pm    Post subject:

XTC wrote:
Quote:
Kelly O'Donnell
@KellyO
·
1h
Trump in Georgia on risk of losing: "I'm gonna say, I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politicsI'm not gonna feel so good. Maybe I'll have to leave the country. I don't know."

https://mobile.twitter.com/KellyO/status/1317264833771864064



Well, yeah he may try to flee because he’ll probably be facing jailtime.


Russia if you are listening...you can have him!
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:49 pm    Post subject:

Chris Hayes mentioned something interesting.

- Chris Christie, a close advisor and friend of Trump's, gets COVID and goes to the hospital for 7 days. Apparently it was a serious case and he was very sick.
- No one at the White House ever acknowledged that Christie was sick, no one wished him a speedy recovery, no one ever mentioned him.
- It's as if Christie no longer existed once he got COVID.

- And the same goes for the rest of the people in the administration. Other than his passing mention of his wife and son, no one ever talked about the other cases in and around the White House. Some of the lower profile people must have had some treatment. Again, no one talks about them.

Acknowledging these things would be a direct attack on Trump.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:54 pm    Post subject:

trmiv wrote:
XTC wrote:
Quote:
Kelly O'Donnell
@KellyO
·
1h
Trump in Georgia on risk of losing: "I'm gonna say, I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politicsI'm not gonna feel so good. Maybe I'll have to leave the country. I don't know."

https://mobile.twitter.com/KellyO/status/1317264833771864064



Well, yeah he may try to flee because he’ll probably be facing jailtime.


It’s cute that he thinks he’d be allowed to leave, or that he wouldn’t be extradited. First there’s no way US Intelligence and the Secret Service is letting a former president flee the country and risk him being picked up by a hostile nation and interrogated. Second if he somehow did leave, I don’t think there’s a country outside of maybe North Korea that wouldn’t extradite him when he’s facing charges here.


He can easily leave between November 3 and January 20 under the pretense of signing some agreement or whatever. No one would stop him.

Russia would not extradite him.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:56 pm    Post subject:

DaMuleRules wrote:
ChefLinda wrote:
Quote:
Natalie Andrews @nataliewsj

NEW: Sen. Feinstein loses the support of abortion rights group NARAL, says the top Dem on Judiciary "offered an appearance of credibility to the proceedings that is wildly out of step with the American people. As such, we believe the committee needs new leadership."


The freakin' state of California needs a new senator.

Schiff is the one I'm hoping for!
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