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ChefLinda
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:21 am    Post subject:

Conservative editor of the National Review:

Quote:
Rich Lowry @RichLowry

I agree with everyone who says the debate is hard to grade on any traditional scale, but the key takeaway is that Trump set out to make Biden crack and it didn’t happen
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:23 am    Post subject:

trmiv wrote:
ChefLinda wrote:
Obviously this is only anecdotal.

Quote:
Steve Pierce @steve_pierce

My dad is a lifelong Republican. He lives in TX. He entered last night undecided.

He just texted to say that, even though he agrees w/ Trump on a lot of policies, the debate showed him that he cannot hold his nose & vote for him.

There are a lot of voters like my dad out there


Quote:
A Worried Citizen @ThePubliusUSA

I have heard from several Trump 2016 voters who were on the fence that the debate last night pushed them firmly into @JoeBiden's corner.


Let's hope.



Sorry I don’t trust any of those people. When it comes time actually vote, they will go home to the GOP. They always do.


Yep. It's just something to say to others so they can feel less embarrassed about continuing to support him.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:27 am    Post subject:

ChefLinda wrote:
DaMuleRules wrote:
ChefLinda wrote:
jodeke wrote:
ChefLinda wrote:
Biden should cancel participation in remaining debates. This was a waste of time.


I don't think he should. IMO that would infer weakness. You have to stand up to a bully.


Trump's strategy was to create chaos, not to debate. Under those circumstances you hand him what he wants if you let him repeat that performance. Denying Trump that platform is taking control, not weakness.


I disagree completely. The message sent by Biden refusing to do anymore debates is that he is unwilling to stand up to Trump and therefore unable to standup for America as its President.


There are legit arguments both pro and con, but Biden already said he's doing them so my point is moot. But I won't be watching.


Believe me, I get it. I'll watch, but only out of a personal sense of obligation to seeing everything play out.
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ChefLinda
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:39 am    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:
I'll wait for the opinion polls, but in my opinion this debate did little to move the needle. Biden could have delivered a knockout punch or two, but didn't. In fact, the most embarrassing moments for Trump (other than the self-inflicted wounds) were delivered by Chris Wallace.

In terms of the women's vote, I'm not a woman, but I'm skeptical that the debate did anything to change or deliver that demographic into Biden's camp. Trump's unhinged behavior towards Hillary was far worse in 2016; the fact that he tried to physically intimidate her on stage should have turned the election on its heels. There was plenty of outrage on social media afterward, and yet it didn't move the needle in terms of the polls.


Okay, let's lay down some markers and come back to them after subsequent polling.

Washington Post 9/29: Trump faces historic gender gap heading into first debate

Quote:
In Pennsylvania, women favor Joe Biden by 23 points and men narrowly prefer President Trump by seven points, according to a fresh Washington Post-ABC News poll, which has the Democratic nominee edging the president by nine points overall among likely voters in the Keystone State.

Nationally, a Post-ABC poll released Sunday showed Biden leading Trump by 31 points among female likely voters and Trump leading Biden by 13 points among male likely voters. Trump’s lead among men is about the same as his final margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but Biden’s lead among women is more than twice as large as Clinton’s.


All In Together: September 2020 Poll

Quote:
Women voters, particularly women in Battleground states, will make a significant difference in the 2020 election. All In Together conducted the most comprehensive survey of women voters to date which definitively shows that while President Donald Trump has tried to appeal to women voters, particularly suburban women, with his law and order messaging, his efforts are not working. Across nearly every group of women voters, Biden holds a significant polling advantage.

However, President Trump does hold an advantage with non-college educated white women. They voted for him in 2016 and are poised to vote for him again. This could be significant in the Battleground states where white non-college women are 23 percent of the likely electorate while white college women are 17 percent of the likely electorate.


Quote:
As with every election for the past 40 years, there is a gender gap in the presidential ballot. Women voters favor Biden by 11-points, men voters prefer Trump by a 7-point margin (50% Trump, 43% Biden, 7% undecided), for a gender gap of 18-points.


Quote:
Key groups of women swing voters are leaning towards Biden. Despite the Trump campaign’s efforts to gain suburban women’s support, they are breaking for Biden by a 14% margin. Senior women are also voting for Biden (54%) over Trump (42%) with 5% undecided.

Black women continue to be Biden’s strongest supporters (84% support to 12% support for Trump). Women under 30 are voting for Biden by the widest margin behind Black women (79% Biden, 18% Trump, 3% undecided).

Trump holds a slight advantage over Biden with White women, and white non-college educated women are voting for Trump at a higher margin (59% vs 37% for Biden) than white women overall.

Of the women who usually vote for Republicans, 25% are voting for Biden this year (71% are voting for Trump), and the women who say they usually split their ticket are voting for Biden this year (47% Biden, 41% Trump).


NYT Sept. 24: Trump Faces Challenges Even in Red States, Poll Shows, as Women Favor Biden

Quote:
A yawning gender gap in Georgia, Iowa and Texas is working in Mr. Biden’s favor, with the former vice president making inroads into conservative territory with strong support from women. In Iowa, where Mr. Biden is ahead of Mr. Trump, 45 percent to 42 percent, he is up among women by 14 percentage points. Men favor Mr. Trump by eight points.

In Georgia, where the two candidates are tied at 45 percent, Mr. Biden leads among women by 10 points. Mr. Trump is ahead with men by a similar margin of 11 percentage points.

Mr. Trump’s large advantage among men in Texas is enough to give him a small advantage there, 46 percent to 43 percent. Men prefer the president to his Democratic challenger by 16 points, while women favor Mr. Biden by an eight-point margin.


I'll bookmark this and come back to it when these polls are updated.


Last edited by ChefLinda on Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:42 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:40 am    Post subject:

Biden needs to get back in the saddle. Though Trump will continue with the sh*t show tactics, Biden will need to show that he has the stomach to face stupidity and adversity. Cancelling the debates will be interpreted as a sign of retreat, and that simply isn't a characteristic you want in the Oval Office.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:42 am    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:
Biden needs to get back in the saddle. Though Trump will continue with the sh*t show tactics, Biden will need to show that he has the stomach to face stupidity and adversity. Cancelling the debates will be interpreted as a sign of retreat, and that simply isn't a characteristic you want in the Oval Office.


Yup, and his campaign already said they intend to show up.
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ChefLinda
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:48 am    Post subject:

DaMuleRules wrote:
ChefLinda wrote:
DaMuleRules wrote:
ChefLinda wrote:
jodeke wrote:
ChefLinda wrote:
Biden should cancel participation in remaining debates. This was a waste of time.


I don't think he should. IMO that would infer weakness. You have to stand up to a bully.


Trump's strategy was to create chaos, not to debate. Under those circumstances you hand him what he wants if you let him repeat that performance. Denying Trump that platform is taking control, not weakness.


I disagree completely. The message sent by Biden refusing to do anymore debates is that he is unwilling to stand up to Trump and therefore unable to standup for America as its President.


There are legit arguments both pro and con, but Biden already said he's doing them so my point is moot. But I won't be watching.


Believe me, I get it. I'll watch, but only out of a personal sense of obligation to seeing everything play out.


I'll selectively watch highlight clips after the fact, mainly of Biden and the townhall questioners. Trump is a legit piece of (bleep), he's like a virus infecting everyone and everything in his orbit. I watched one debate in it's entirety out of personal responsibility. That was enough.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:54 am    Post subject:

ChefLinda wrote:
angrypuppy wrote:
I'll wait for the opinion polls, but in my opinion this debate did little to move the needle. Biden could have delivered a knockout punch or two, but didn't. In fact, the most embarrassing moments for Trump (other than the self-inflicted wounds) were delivered by Chris Wallace.

In terms of the women's vote, I'm not a woman, but I'm skeptical that the debate did anything to change or deliver that demographic into Biden's camp. Trump's unhinged behavior towards Hillary was far worse in 2016; the fact that he tried to physically intimidate her on stage should have turned the election on its heels. There was plenty of outrage on social media afterward, and yet it didn't move the needle in terms of the polls.


Okay, let's lay down some markers and come back to them after subsequent polling.

Washington Post 9/29: Trump faces historic gender gap heading into first debate

Quote:
In Pennsylvania, women favor Joe Biden by 23 points and men narrowly prefer President Trump by seven points, according to a fresh Washington Post-ABC News poll, which has the Democratic nominee edging the president by nine points overall among likely voters in the Keystone State.

Nationally, a Post-ABC poll released Sunday showed Biden leading Trump by 31 points among female likely voters and Trump leading Biden by 13 points among male likely voters. Trump’s lead among men is about the same as his final margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but Biden’s lead among women is more than twice as large as Clinton’s.


All In Together: September 2020 Poll

Quote:
Women voters, particularly women in Battleground states, will make a significant difference in the 2020 election. All In Together conducted the most comprehensive survey of women voters to date which definitively shows that while President Donald Trump has tried to appeal to women voters, particularly suburban women, with his law and order messaging, his efforts are not working. Across nearly every group of women voters, Biden holds a significant polling advantage.

However, President Trump does hold an advantage with non-college educated white women. They voted for him in 2016 and are poised to vote for him again. This could be significant in the Battleground states where white non-college women are 23 percent of the likely electorate while white college women are 17 percent of the likely electorate.


Quote:
As with every election for the past 40 years, there is a gender gap in the presidential ballot. Women voters favor Biden by 11-points, men voters prefer Trump by a 7-point margin (50% Trump, 43% Biden, 7% undecided), for a gender gap of 18-points.


Quote:
Key groups of women swing voters are leaning towards Biden. Despite the Trump campaign’s efforts to gain suburban women’s support, they are breaking for Biden by a 14% margin. Senior women are also voting for Biden (54%) over Trump (42%) with 5% undecided.

Black women continue to be Biden’s strongest supporters (84% support to 12% support for Trump). Women under 30 are voting for Biden by the widest margin behind Black women (79% Biden, 18% Trump, 3% undecided).

Trump holds a slight advantage over Biden with White women, and white non-college educated women are voting for Trump at a higher margin (59% vs 37% for Biden) than white women overall.

Of the women who usually vote for Republicans, 25% are voting for Biden this year (71% are voting for Trump), and the women who say they usually split their ticket are voting for Biden this year (47% Biden, 41% Trump).


NYT Sept. 24: Trump Faces Challenges Even in Red States, Poll Shows, as Women Favor Biden

Quote:
A yawning gender gap in Georgia, Iowa and Texas is working in Mr. Biden’s favor, with the former vice president making inroads into conservative territory with strong support from women. In Iowa, where Mr. Biden is ahead of Mr. Trump, 45 percent to 42 percent, he is up among women by 14 percentage points. Men favor Mr. Trump by eight points.

In Georgia, where the two candidates are tied at 45 percent, Mr. Biden leads among women by 10 points. Mr. Trump is ahead with men by a similar margin of 11 percentage points.

Mr. Trump’s large advantage among men in Texas is enough to give him a small advantage there, 46 percent to 43 percent. Men prefer the president to his Democratic challenger by 16 points, while women favor Mr. Biden by an eight-point margin.


I'll bookmark this and come back to it when these polls are updated.



Excellent, thanks. I'm afraid the outrage is largely confined to those who already weren't going to vote for Trump.

I've recast my view on these debates. It won't move the needle, but I think the strategy of the Dems and GOP will become more apparent as the debates continue:

Dems: The outrage motivates a body of sedentary voters who dislike Trump, but probably wouldn't have the energy or motivation to cast a ballot.

GOP: Intimidate that group of sedentary voters by threatening violence or intimidation, which will scare them into not casting a ballot.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:07 am    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:

Excellent, thanks. I'm afraid the outrage is largely confined to those who already weren't going to vote for Trump.

I've recast my view on these debates. It won't move the needle, but I think the strategy of the Dems and GOP will become more apparent as the debates continue:

Dems: The outrage motivates a body of sedentary voters who dislike Trump, but probably wouldn't have the energy or motivation to cast a ballot.

GOP: Intimidate that group of sedentary voters by threatening violence or intimidation, which will scare them into not casting a ballot.


If a suburban woman is motivated to head to the polls to vote for Biden instead of sitting at home, then you've widened the gender gap at the polls, correct? But you say that doesn't make a difference and won't move the needle?
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:08 am    Post subject:

Round 1 showed how crazy trump was and how Biden was playing it safe. Now that Biden’s team has seen trump’s act and ‘borders’ (there’s none), they can prepare him. No more smiling, keep being professional and courteous but way more forceful and ok to be angry here and there when appropriate.
I anticipate Biden to do the remaining two debates with an even better contrast to trump. trump would either double down on the nastiness or try to pivot and look ridiculously fake.

Biden 2020
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:12 am    Post subject:

governator wrote:
Round 1 showed how crazy trump was and how Biden was playing it safe. Now that Biden’s team has seen trump’s act and ‘borders’ (there’s none), they can prepare him. No more smiling, keep being professional and courteous but way more forceful and ok to be angry here and there when appropriate.
I anticipate Biden to do the remaining two debates with an even better contrast to trump. trump would either double down on the nastiness or try to pivot and look ridiculously fake.

Biden 2020
Lakers 2020

We (bleep) need this


Apparently the next debate is a townhall format with citizens asking the questions. That plays into Biden's strengths and he can speak directly to the voter. If Trump tries to talk over them, he will look even worse than he did this time.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:17 am    Post subject:

When even the idiots on Fox & Friends are telling you that you messed up big time by not condemning white supremacists...
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:22 am    Post subject:

ChefLinda wrote:
angrypuppy wrote:

Excellent, thanks. I'm afraid the outrage is largely confined to those who already weren't going to vote for Trump.

I've recast my view on these debates. It won't move the needle, but I think the strategy of the Dems and GOP will become more apparent as the debates continue:

Dems: The outrage motivates a body of sedentary voters who dislike Trump, but probably wouldn't have the energy or motivation to cast a ballot.

GOP: Intimidate that group of sedentary voters by threatening violence or intimidation, which will scare them into not casting a ballot.


If a suburban woman is motivated to head to the polls to vote for Biden instead of sitting at home, then you've widened the gender gap at the polls, correct? But you say that doesn't make a difference and won't move the needle?



My hypothesis is that Trump has already inflamed that passions of those women who already hate him. If anything Trump physically stalking Hillary during the 2016 was more outrageous. If that conduct didn't galvanize the women, why would talking over a male moderator move the needle?

You're view is more aligned with mine than you may realize. As I said, the real strategy behind these debates is to try influencing sedentary voter behavior. Women should have been outraged in 2016, but I don't see how Trump's talking over a male moderator in 2020 was worse than him stalking Hillary on stage. It wasn't, and that's why I harbor doubts about the polls moving towards Biden, or a greater quantity of women showing up to vote in 2020 based on Trump being rude to a moderator.

What might motivate the sedentary voter wasn't the treatment of the moderator, it was witnessing an unhinged, defensive Trump who openly advocating voter intimidation at the polls. That was a far more outrageous threat to our democracy than talking over a debate moderator.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:23 am    Post subject:

Washington Post: Early surge of Democratic mail voting sparks worry inside GOP

Quote:
Democratic voters who have requested mail ballots — and returned them — greatly outnumber Republicans so far in key battleground states, causing alarm among GOP party leaders and strategists that President Trump’s attacks on mail voting could be hurting the party’s prospects to retain the White House and the Senate this year.

Of the more than 9 million voters who requested mail ballots through Monday in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Maine and Iowa, the five battleground states where such data is publicly available, 52 percent were Democrats. Twenty-eight percent were Republicans, and 20 percent were unaffiliated.

Additional internal Democratic and Republican Party data obtained by The Washington Post shows a similar trend in Ohio, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

Even more alarming to some Republicans, Democrats are also returning their ballots at higher rates than GOP voters in two of those states where that information is available: Florida and North Carolina.

The wide Democratic lead in mail voting so far has been the subject of urgent discussions among top GOP officials, according to people familiar with the conversations.

The margins are “stunning” — and bad news for Republicans up and down the ballot, said longtime GOP pollster Whit Ayres. While the Republican Party is focused on getting voters out on Election Day, he noted that older voters who have traditionally supported Republicans are most concerned about being infected with the novel coronavirus and could choose to stay home if the outbreak intensifies as the election nears.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:30 am    Post subject:

I keep seeing stuff about Trump not condemning white supremicists being a mistake. It was NOT a mistake. Trump not condemning white supremicists was completely intentional.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:33 am    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:
ChefLinda wrote:
angrypuppy wrote:

Excellent, thanks. I'm afraid the outrage is largely confined to those who already weren't going to vote for Trump.

I've recast my view on these debates. It won't move the needle, but I think the strategy of the Dems and GOP will become more apparent as the debates continue:

Dems: The outrage motivates a body of sedentary voters who dislike Trump, but probably wouldn't have the energy or motivation to cast a ballot.

GOP: Intimidate that group of sedentary voters by threatening violence or intimidation, which will scare them into not casting a ballot.


If a suburban woman is motivated to head to the polls to vote for Biden instead of sitting at home, then you've widened the gender gap at the polls, correct? But you say that doesn't make a difference and won't move the needle?



My hypothesis is that Trump has already inflamed that passions of those women who already hate him. If anything Trump physically stalking Hillary during the 2016 was more outrageous. If that conduct didn't galvanize the women, why would talking over a male moderator move the needle?

You're view is more aligned with mine than you may realize. As I said, the real strategy behind these debates is to try influencing sedentary voter behavior. Women should have been outraged in 2016, but I don't see how Trump's talking over a male moderator in 2020 was worse than him stalking Hillary on stage. It wasn't, and that's why I harbor doubts about the polls moving towards Biden, or a greater quantity of women showing up to vote in 2020 based on Trump being rude to a moderator.

What might motivate the sedentary voter wasn't the treatment of the moderator, it was witnessing an unhinged, defensive Trump who openly advocating voter intimidation at the polls. That was a far more outrageous threat to our democracy than talking over a debate moderator.


The reason I've been posting the views of lots of different women in this thread is because women do perceive a difference. The stalking was creepy, but what Trump did last night was emulate every loud, raging, intimidating, abusive husband/boyfriend/father/male-co-worker that almost every woman has encountered in her life. That's why I tried to explain to you that there may be a difference in how men and women perceived last night. If you've never been on the receiving end of such frightening, gaslighting, semi-violent, victim-blaming, horrific behavior (where one person holds outsized power) then maybe it's hard to imagine how it feels. Most women don't have to imagine how it feels, because they've actually experienced it. But don't take my word for it.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:35 am    Post subject:

ChefLinda wrote:
governator wrote:
Round 1 showed how crazy trump was and how Biden was playing it safe. Now that Biden’s team has seen trump’s act and ‘borders’ (there’s none), they can prepare him. No more smiling, keep being professional and courteous but way more forceful and ok to be angry here and there when appropriate.
I anticipate Biden to do the remaining two debates with an even better contrast to trump. trump would either double down on the nastiness or try to pivot and look ridiculously fake.

Biden 2020
Lakers 2020

We (bleep) need this


Apparently the next debate is a townhall format with citizens asking the questions. That plays into Biden's strengths and he can speak directly to the voter. If Trump tries to talk over them, he will look even worse than he did this time.


Trump won’t have the discipline to not talk over the folks asking questions... except this time he’s not bullying a ‘Democrat’, he’ll be bullying Americans... his supporters will still support him but I hope, sincerely hope he can’t expand his base. I’ll be voting in NJ, hope we have enough battle states votes this time around
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:44 am    Post subject:

trmiv wrote:
I keep seeing stuff about Trump not condemning white supremicists being a mistake. It was NOT a mistake. Trump not condemning white supremicists was completely intentional.


totally agreed, people are underestimating how many closet white supremiscists / political correctness haters are in this country. those people are looking for some idiot to speaking their voice without themselves doing so, and they found that idiot in Trump. it was a calculated move by Trump.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:46 am    Post subject:

Bol wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
kikanga wrote:
One thing that really stood out to me in the debate is when Trump encouraged his supporters to "poll watch". A.k.a. go to the polls and intimidate people.


The part where he wouldn't outright denounce white supremacy was great too, wasn't it?


It's strange how he can lie so easily about everything else, but he can't lie about liking white supremacists.
White supremacists, stand by. But that group who is anti-fascist. THEY are the real danger. And screw my FBI Director if he doesn't agree.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:47 am    Post subject:

Quote:
Abby D. Phillip @abbydphillip

Commission on Presidential Debates has issued a statement on last night's debacle: "Last night’s debate made clear that additional structure should be added to the format of the remaining debates to ensure a more orderly discussion of the issues." More changes to be announced...


Hopefully the change will include the moderator's ability to cut the mikes.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:49 am    Post subject:

kikanga wrote:
Bol wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
kikanga wrote:
One thing that really stood out to me in the debate is when Trump encouraged his supporters to "poll watch". A.k.a. go to the polls and intimidate people.


The part where he wouldn't outright denounce white supremacy was great too, wasn't it?


It's strange how he can lie so easily about everything else, but he can't lie about liking white supremacists.
White supremacists, stand by. But that group who is anti-fascist. THEY are the real danger. And screw my FBI Director if he doesn't agree.


He could easily lie about it, and would in a second if it served his purpose, but he wants them to know he supports them.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:52 am    Post subject:

Omar Little wrote:
kikanga wrote:
Bol wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
kikanga wrote:
One thing that really stood out to me in the debate is when Trump encouraged his supporters to "poll watch". A.k.a. go to the polls and intimidate people.


The part where he wouldn't outright denounce white supremacy was great too, wasn't it?


It's strange how he can lie so easily about everything else, but he can't lie about liking white supremacists.
White supremacists, stand by. But that group who is anti-fascist. THEY are the real danger. And screw my FBI Director if he doesn't agree.


He could easily lie about it, and would in a second if it served his purpose, but he wants them to know he supports them.


And plans on deploying them . . .

Anyone who thinks there is going to be a peaceful transition (if there even is one) is totally misunderstanding the atmosphere at this point.
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In 24 frames


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Man, do those lyrics resonate right now
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:54 am    Post subject:

Yup. Part of what stopped the vote count in Florida in 2000 was a frat boy army showing up and shoving their way in. Trump has a much wider and more violent vision of disrupting the election, before, during, and after.
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Omar Little
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:56 am    Post subject:

Not to mention that if Barrett is seated in time, Trump will have three justices that were active in stopping the 2000 recount.
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jodeke
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:58 am    Post subject:

ChefLinda wrote:
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Abby D. Phillip @abbydphillip

Commission on Presidential Debates has issued a statement on last night's debacle: "Last night’s debate made clear that additional structure should be added to the format of the remaining debates to ensure a more orderly discussion of the issues." More changes to be announced...


Hopefully the change will include the moderator's ability to cut the mikes.


If given that ability what good would it do? Wouldn't the proximity of the debaters nullify the ability to cut the mike. Wouldn't Trump be able to shout over a miked Biden? How could a mute mike work?
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