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kikanga
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 Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Wilt wrote: | | So it's Amy Coney Barrett. He picked a woman to destroy all the progress women have made in the last few decades. |
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:23 pm Post subject: |
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The media always focuses on Trump's base. Looks like the Democratic base is pretty motivated.
| Quote: | Steven Dennis @StevenTDennis
ActBlue raised more than a quarter billion dollars in the week following Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death.
To put that number into perspective, the number raised in 7 days is roughly 1/25th of the entire amount raised by ActBlue since its inception in 2004. |
There are millions of women who don't want their right to manage their own reproductive systems ripped away by the government. And millions more who don't want healthcare ripped away from their families, especially in the middle of a pandemic. Those twin fears are huge motivators to vote Democratic up and down the ballot. |
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Wilt wrote: | | Being aware of extreme scenarios is fine, but giving them too much credit might have a negative impact on our side. |
So how do you define the "appropriate" amount of credit? Trump has made ir very clear he intends to steal the election. He has brazenly implemented a plan to do so by tilting the SCOTUS in his favor. He has spent every moment in front of a camera poisoning the well of public opinion by claiming that all the ballots are going to be corrupt and invalid.
If anyone is positioning things to have a negative impact, it's Trump. He's the one saying the voting will be irrelevant. Our side is simply saying be prepared for the fallout.
| Quote: | | If all people keep hearing until election day is "Bill Barr has plan that will overturn the election," it might dissuade enough people from voting to make the election closer than it would have been otherwise. |
Except for the fact that everything seems to be indicating the opposite is happening. People are digging in and using this to emphasize the necessity of everyone on the left to vote. I haven't seen any credible evidence that actual voters are throwing in the towel.
So where is the danger of pointing out the very real, very obvious fact that Trump and the GOP are planning to steal the election and have an extremely likely chance of doing so?
Are we supposed to just ignore that because some people might throw up their hands and say, "oh well. No point in voting"? Again, there's no indication that is actually happening.
| Quote: | | People should go with the assumption that the election is open and fair. |
OK. But they should also be very aware that is clearly not going to be the case. Are we supposed to ignore that?
| Quote: | | And if there are shenanigans, we can deal with them once November 3rd arrives. There's a reason Biden hired hundreds of lawyers. Whatever they're planning, the best scenario is to have as many people as possible voting for Biden, making their case harder. |
"If"?
We are way past "if".
It's "when".
Biden can have all the lawyers he wants. Trump is going to have the only 9 judges who matter. You think Kavanaugh is going to rule against Trump's effort to steal the election? Gorsuch? Or the pending appointment, Barret? Not going to happen my friend.
We gain nothing by pretending things are going to be just fine. So why advocate for not acknowledging the fact that they likely won't be and being prepared to for that eventuality?
_________________
You thought God was an architect, now you know
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And everything you built that’s all for show
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:53 pm Post subject: |
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| ChefLinda wrote: | The media always focuses on Trump's base. Looks like the Democratic base is pretty motivated.
| Quote: | Steven Dennis @StevenTDennis
ActBlue raised more than a quarter billion dollars in the week following Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death.
To put that number into perspective, the number raised in 7 days is roughly 1/25th of the entire amount raised by ActBlue since its inception in 2004. |
There are millions of women who don't want their right to manage their own reproductive systems ripped away by the government. And millions more who don't want healthcare ripped away from their families, especially in the middle of a pandemic. Those twin fears are huge motivators to vote Democratic up and down the ballot. |
Which is why I think the idea that we shouldn't acknowledge the threat Trump presents to a fair election because it might dissuade people from voting is the wrong approach. We need to give voters credit for being aware and motivated. Not write them off as people who are going to shrink when confronted with a soft coup via election hijacking.
_________________
You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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Wilt
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 6:18 pm Post subject: |
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| DaMuleRules wrote: | | Wilt wrote: | | Being aware of extreme scenarios is fine, but giving them too much credit might have a negative impact on our side. |
So how do you define the "appropriate" amount of credit? Trump has made ir very clear he intends to steal the election. He has brazenly implemented a plan to do so by tilting the SCOTUS in his favor. He has spent every moment in front of a camera poisoning the well of public opinion by claiming that all the ballots are going to be corrupt and invalid.
If anyone is positioning things to have a negative impact, it's Trump. He's the one saying the voting will be irrelevant. Our side is simply saying be prepared for the fallout.
| Quote: | | If all people keep hearing until election day is "Bill Barr has plan that will overturn the election," it might dissuade enough people from voting to make the election closer than it would have been otherwise. |
Except for the fact that everything seems to be indicating the opposite is happening. People are digging in and using this to emphasize the necessity of everyone on the left to vote. I haven't seen any credible evidence that actual voters are throwing in the towel.
So where is the danger of pointing out the very real, very obvious fact that Trump and the GOP are planning to steal the election and have an extremely likely chance of doing so?
Are we supposed to just ignore that because some people might throw up their hands and say, "oh well. No point in voting"? Again, there's no indication that is actually happening.
| Quote: | | People should go with the assumption that the election is open and fair. |
OK. But they should also be very aware that is clearly not going to be the case. Are we supposed to ignore that?
| Quote: | | And if there are shenanigans, we can deal with them once November 3rd arrives. There's a reason Biden hired hundreds of lawyers. Whatever they're planning, the best scenario is to have as many people as possible voting for Biden, making their case harder. |
"If"?
We are way past "if".
It's "when".
Biden can have all the lawyers he wants. Trump is going to have the only 9 judges who matter. You think Kavanaugh is going to rule against Trump's effort to steal the election? Gorsuch? Or the pending appointment, Barret? Not going to happen my friend.
We gain nothing by pretending things are going to be just fine. So why advocate for not acknowledging the fact that they likely won't be and being prepared to for that eventuality? |
I don't know, hence the use of "might." But the DMR quote machine had to be deployed with turbo boost. 
I hope I'm wrong and it motivates even more people to vote, but there are people in the world like BernieBros who might prefer chaos in the end and not voting could bring that chaos they'd been hoping for years.
Again, as I said earlier, we will most likely laugh about all the panic a few weeks from now.
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FernieBee
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 6:31 pm Post subject: |
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I live in California, and this state is not really in doubt, as far as Biden is concerned, so I'm writing in my vote.
Wilt for president!
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Wilt
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 6:43 pm Post subject: |
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| FernieBee wrote: | I live in California, and this state is not really in doubt, as far as Biden is concerned, so I'm writing in my vote.
Wilt for president!
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I'm not eligible. 
Seriously, though, people have all kinds of motivations for voting or not voting. The disdain for Trump is strong among most people. Most of Biden's support is probably strong. But some of it is soft. I would say that part of leaking their master plan is to see how it would affect voter behavior and it could just be - again, a greater than zero percent chance - that this would all a ploy to depress turnout ever so slightly. And they could be very wrong about that. And even if it isn't a strategy to depress turnout but to actually steal the election in front of the whole world, we should take it seriously but not assume that they're as competent as they want us to think.
The likeliest scenario is that Biden wins. The least likely scenario is that we will become an authoritarian dictatorship, even considering all the stuff they've gotten away with.
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FernieBee
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 6:58 pm Post subject: |
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Yeah, I'm not eligible, either.
All in for Biden & Harris!
Let Trump & his evil enablers figure out how to overcome the blue onslaught that's headed in his orange direction.
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Hector the Pup
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Wilt wrote: | | FernieBee wrote: | I live in California, and this state is not really in doubt, as far as Biden is concerned, so I'm writing in my vote.
Wilt for president!
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I'm not eligible.
Seriously, though, people have all kinds of motivations for voting or not voting. The disdain for Trump is strong among most people. Most of Biden's support is probably strong. But some of it is soft. I would say that part of leaking their master plan is to see how it would affect voter behavior and it could just be - again, a greater than zero percent chance - that this would all a ploy to depress turnout ever so slightly. And they could be very wrong about that. And even if it isn't a strategy to depress turnout but to actually steal the election in front of the whole world, we should take it seriously but not assume that they're as competent as they want us to think.
The likeliest scenario is that Biden wins. The least likely scenario is that we will become an authoritarian dictatorship, even considering all the stuff they've gotten away with. |
Likely, yes, but not guaranteed. I don't think you understand. |
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Wilt
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:29 pm Post subject: |
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I think I understand the definitions of likely and guaranteed.
I also study authoritarian dictatorships for a living and was born in a country that was ruled by a dictator. From a historical perspective, we are very unlikely to become one in three months. Greater than zero chance? Yes. Believe it or not, 538 says that Trump has an 8 percent chance of winning more than 50% of the popular vote. Anything is possible, but it doesn't justify a fatalistic mindset.
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Hector the Pup
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:06 am Post subject: |
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| Wilt wrote: | I think I understand the definitions of likely and guaranteed.
I also study authoritarian dictatorships for a living and was born in a country that was ruled by a dictator. From a historical perspective, we are very unlikely to become one in three months. Greater than zero chance? Yes. Believe it or not, 538 says that Trump has an 8 percent chance of winning more than 50% of the popular vote. Anything is possible, but it doesn't justify a fatalistic mindset. |
I would like to know the historical references for even an attempted seizure of power that mirrors this one. I would actually appreciate hearing about the failed ones that started with overtaking the judicial system. That might be too specific, so just general reference points would suffice. |
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:02 am Post subject: |
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A current sitting US Attorney publicly calls out Bill Barr in a letter to the Boston Globe: Barr dishonors Justice Department
| Quote: | Many former federal prosecutors have spoken out against Attorney General William Barr, while current federal prosecutors have understandably remained silent. The attorney general’s comments at Hillsdale College, however, compel me to speak out as well. While I am a federal prosecutor, I am writing to express my own views, clearly not those of the department, on a matter that should concern all citizens: the unprecedented politicization of the office of the attorney general. The attorney general acts as though his job is to serve only the political interests of Donald J. Trump. This is a dangerous abuse of power. From his misleading summary of the Mueller Report, to his selective intervention in cases against political allies of the president, to his accusation that victims such as George Floyd are being used as mere “props” by those calling for racial justice, to his baseless claims about mail-in ballots, William Barr has done the president’s bidding at every turn. For 30 years I have been proud to say I work for the Department of Justice, but the current attorney general has brought shame on the department he purports to lead.
James D. Herbert
Milton
The writer is an assistant US attorney for the District of Massachusetts. The views expressed here are his own. |
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:07 am Post subject: |
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This gave me a chuckle:
| Quote: | Chuck @Chuckjson
Joe Biden should walk out on the debate stage, take his suit jacket off, roll up his sleeves, drop, do 10 pushups, jump back up, look at Trump and say "your turn". |
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Wilt
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:21 am Post subject: |
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| Hector the Pup wrote: | | Wilt wrote: | I think I understand the definitions of likely and guaranteed.
I also study authoritarian dictatorships for a living and was born in a country that was ruled by a dictator. From a historical perspective, we are very unlikely to become one in three months. Greater than zero chance? Yes. Believe it or not, 538 says that Trump has an 8 percent chance of winning more than 50% of the popular vote. Anything is possible, but it doesn't justify a fatalistic mindset. |
I would like to know the historical references for even an attempted seizure of power that mirrors this one. I would actually appreciate hearing about the failed ones that started with overtaking the judicial system. That might be too specific, so just general reference points would suffice. |
I talked about this a little a few pages ago, but here's one way he can say that we are unlikely to head towards a dark authoritarian path.
If we look at the last 250 years or so, there's a spectrum that ranges from Great Britain (never embraced authoritarianism), to France (flirted with it a few times), to Germany (fully embraced it). There are other countries on that spectrum in the West, but the three mentioned are the most similar to us in their economic development over a long period of time. In terms of political culture, which includes the existence of long established political institutions, a long history of peaceful transfers of power, political engagement of the citizenry, and many other things, we are closer to Britain than the other two. Which doesn't guarantee anything, as history is full of weird turns, but it makes it highly improbable that our highly diverse, vast, politically engaged citizenry will ultimately tolerate an unlawful seizure of power, no matter how it is sold to the public (you called it judicial). Which doesn't mean that Trump and his allies won't attempt it in some way or another, but it's hard to see how their efforts will ultimately be successful and politically sustainable domestically and internationally.
So the next few months will be a test. Just based on history, we will most likely pass the test.
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Wilt
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:26 am Post subject: |
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| ChefLinda wrote: | This gave me a chuckle:
| Quote: | Chuck @Chuckjson
Joe Biden should walk out on the debate stage, take his suit jacket off, roll up his sleeves, drop, do 10 pushups, jump back up, look at Trump and say "your turn". |
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David Plouffe made the point that if Biden does well, or at least better than expected in the first debate, the public might just tune out for the next few debates.
At that point, the campaign of persuasion will pretty much be over. Biden can then use his vast monetary resources for the turnout operation and targeted ads.
All of Trump's other potential October surprises won't work. The public already doesn't trust him on the vaccine, the Hunter Biden thing won't go anywhere. What else does he left? The cake has been baked.
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:39 am Post subject: |
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My thoughts on the argument that spreading too much doom and gloom information about Trump's potential plans to meddle with the election will have the effect of suppressing the vote on the Democratic side:
1) Just this year the GOP Wisconsin controlled state assembly tried to suppress the vote for a key State supreme court seat by forcing voters to the polls during the pandemic by disallowing vote by mail. The result? People were so angry about GOP trying to suppress their vote that they had a record turnout for a special elections and voted for the Democratic candidate who won handily. Lesson: when you openly, explicitly and unfairly try to make it harder to vote, it makes people angry and has a backlash effect.
2) In general, fear is a big motivator in elections. Normally the GOP has the fear factor on their side, "They are coming to get your guns!" "They will persecute Christians and take away your religious rights!" "Scary black/brown/gay/feminist people will take over and implement socialism!"
Democrats normally run on positive messaging, "We are all in this together!" "Equality!" "Affordable Health care!" While those things sound good to me, it bores the hell out of young people and apathetic people.
This time around we legitimately have multiple real fears as motivation:
- Repeal of Roe v Wade - young women to have never known any other America are legitimately personally scared of losing their right to an abortion.
- Repeal of ACA - People are genuinely frightened of losing healthcare and pre-existing condition protections. EVERY AMERICAN will lose those protections no matter how they get their insurance. Young people who previously had insurance through age 26 via their parents' plans will instantly be without insurance. With 7M COVID cases, we just added 7M people with a new pre-existing condition.
- If Trump wins, he will use Bill Barr and all of his corrupt administration and judicial appointees to turn our Democracy into a Putin-style corrupt autocracy.
- If Trump wins, the Supreme Court will remain a far right-wing court for the next 50 years.
- Bye bye addressing climate change.
Which leads us to:
3) Trump and his GOP cronies are trying to steal the election from the American people in broad daylight. When you lay out in detail to the American people all the ways Trump/GOP is trying to steal their vote, I believe it will motivate far more people than it will depress. Are there some people who like chaos or are too apathetic to bother to vote? Yes. So what. After four years of a real live (bleep)-show unfolding before their eyes, if they are still too ignorant to vote out of self-preservation then they were never reachable anyway.
4) Because of the above, almost every public Democratic figure has reiterated over and over again, that we need massive Democratic turnout to save our Democracy. The more that gets reinforced, the better.
5) I believe 60% of this country will not act like cowering frightened animals and stay home because of scary stuff Trump might do -- I think the opposite will happen. People are angry and motivated. |
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:42 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | George Takei @GeorgeTakei
If Trump’s only job was to stand on 5th Avenue and shoot someone, every 2 and 1/2 minutes, 40 hours a week, for his entire 4 year term as president, he would have killed 200,640 Americans—still fewer than have died from Covid-19 on his watch. |
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:40 am Post subject: |
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| Wilt wrote: | But the DMR quote machine had to be deployed with turbo boost.
I hope I'm wrong and it motivates even more people to vote, but there are people in the world like BernieBros who might prefer chaos in the end and not voting could bring that chaos they'd been hoping for years.
Again, as I said earlier, we will most likely laugh about all the panic a few weeks from now. |
Here's hopin'.
_________________
You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:48 am Post subject: |
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| ChefLinda wrote: | This gave me a chuckle:
| Quote: | Chuck @Chuckjson
Joe Biden should walk out on the debate stage, take his suit jacket off, roll up his sleeves, drop, do 10 pushups, jump back up, look at Trump and say "your turn". |
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I can't remember where I saw it, but it went something like: Biden should ride into the debate on a bike doing a wheelie. Skid to a stop as he jumps off. Run up the stairs drinking a bottle of water, loosen his tie as he steps to the podium and say, "What's up F^ç& Face!?"
_________________
You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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FernieBee
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Posts: 8033
Location: 921SD
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:51 am Post subject: |
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It turns out my polling place will be across the street from me, at a branch library...about 200 feet away. If that weren't the case, walking to the Post Office, for me, is only a 3-block journey.
It's too bad all parts of this country don't have those conveniences. If they did, we might be much more blue than red, by now.
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:52 am Post subject: |
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| ChefLinda wrote: | My thoughts on the argument that spreading too much doom and gloom information about Trump's potential plans to meddle with the election will have the effect of suppressing the vote on the Democratic side:
1) Just this year the GOP Wisconsin controlled state assembly tried to suppress the vote for a key State supreme court seat by forcing voters to the polls during the pandemic by disallowing vote by mail. The result? People were so angry about GOP trying to suppress their vote that they had a record turnout for a special elections and voted for the Democratic candidate who won handily. Lesson: when you openly, explicitly and unfairly try to make it harder to vote, it makes people angry and has a backlash effect.
2) In general, fear is a big motivator in elections. Normally the GOP has the fear factor on their side, "They are coming to get your guns!" "They will persecute Christians and take away your religious rights!" "Scary black/brown/gay/feminist people will take over and implement socialism!"
Democrats normally run on positive messaging, "We are all in this together!" "Equality!" "Affordable Health care!" While those things sound good to me, it bores the hell out of young people and apathetic people.
This time around we legitimately have multiple real fears as motivation:
- Repeal of Roe v Wade - young women to have never known any other America are legitimately personally scared of losing their right to an abortion.
- Repeal of ACA - People are genuinely frightened of losing healthcare and pre-existing condition protections. EVERY AMERICAN will lose those protections no matter how they get their insurance. Young people who previously had insurance through age 26 via their parents' plans will instantly be without insurance. With 7M COVID cases, we just added 7M people with a new pre-existing condition.
- If Trump wins, he will use Bill Barr and all of his corrupt administration and judicial appointees to turn our Democracy into a Putin-style corrupt autocracy.
- If Trump wins, the Supreme Court will remain a far right-wing court for the next 50 years.
- Bye bye addressing climate change.
Which leads us to:
3) Trump and his GOP cronies are trying to steal the election from the American people in broad daylight. When you lay out in detail to the American people all the ways Trump/GOP is trying to steal their vote, I believe it will motivate far more people than it will depress. Are there some people who like chaos or are too apathetic to bother to vote? Yes. So what. After four years of a real live (bleep)-show unfolding before their eyes, if they are still too ignorant to vote out of self-preservation then they were never reachable anyway.
4) Because of the above, almost every public Democratic figure has reiterated over and over again, that we need massive Democratic turnout to save our Democracy. The more that gets reinforced, the better.
5) I believe 60% of this country will not act like cowering frightened animals and stay home because of scary stuff Trump might do -- I think the opposite will happen. People are angry and motivated. |
I just keep coming back to the fact that as the future looks grimmer, I see more and more people rallying around the idea of voting the bastard out, not cowering away and saying, what's the point?"
_________________
You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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jodeke
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:00 am Post subject: |
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I vote by mail. This election I'm going to fill out my ballot and take it to a polling place to be counted. I'm looking into the option to take it directly to the registrar's office. In this climate, I'm not sure I can trust polling places to assure my vote will be counted. In California vote by mail ballots are mailed to voters before Nov 3rd. I'm poised and ready.
Side Note; I waiting to see if Trump will actually participate in the debate Tues. 9/29 9 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. ET
GET OUT AND VOTE!!!!
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America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves. |
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Wilt
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:46 am Post subject: |
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| DaMuleRules wrote: |
I just keep coming back to the fact that as the future looks grimmer, I see more and more people rallying around the idea of voting the bastard out, not cowering away and saying, what's the point?" |
That is probably true and describes people within the base and probably many people beyond it. CL did a good job outlining their motivations earlier. Which is why I think their potential coup will not be successful in the long run.
But there are three groups within the Biden coalition I tend not to trust:
- Those that support Biden but are still saying they are approving of Trump's handling of the economy. Considering we're in the middle of a catastrophic recession, those people are misguided, to say the least. How will they react to the upcoming (probably rigged) Q3 numbers that Trump will release?
- Non-college educated whites that voted for Trump in 2016 and now are supporting Biden. They obviously didn't have a problem voting for a racist madman with authoritarian tendencies four years ago.
- BernieBros. Fortunately, their numbers are smaller than in 2016. They look for any reason not to vote. They want chaos.
Whatever the reasons, even if some among the three groups defect, it doesn't mean Biden will lose the election, but his overall numbers might be affected.
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Wilt
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:43 am Post subject: |
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After giving up on Michigan, there is talk that Trump is giving up on Wisconsin as well.
Pennsylvania might be where the election is decided.
But there is a way for Trump to win Pennsylvania and still lose the election, providing Biden wins Arizona and both congressional districts in Maine or one congressional district in Nebraska.
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jodeke
Retired Number
Joined: 17 Nov 2007
Posts: 67718
Location: In a world where admitting to not knowing something is considered a great way to learn.
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:57 am Post subject: |
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Republicans spread unfounded rumors without shame. It's disturbing how effective the tactic is.
Probe into 'discarded' ballots becomes campaign outrage fuel
LINK
| Quote: | | Despite the information vacuum, the White House press secretary told reporters “ballots for the president” had been “cast aside.” The Trump campaign’s rapid response arm pushed out the release from Trump’s own Justice Department under the headline “Democrats are trying to steal the election” — ignoring the fact that the local government, Luzerne County, is controlled by Republicans. Conservative voices used the news release as rocket fuel to amplify the investigation on social media. |
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