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FernieBee
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 Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:23 am Post subject: |
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Trump's an idiot but not a total idiot. How long does he think he could hold on, in order to not be prosecuted?
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trmiv
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:36 am Post subject: |
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| He’s hoping he can stay in office as long as he lives and then pass the presidency to Princess Ivanka. Given how blubbery he is that probably isn’t long. Then again horrible people seem to live forever. |
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kikanga
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:43 am Post subject: |
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I've really taken BVH and Wilt's arguments to heart. And I think I can definitely meet them halfway.
It is unquestionable Trump is trying to ensure he stays President whether he wins or loses.
The question is if he'll be successful.
1 thing working in his favor is the courts. He's packed them with a ton of conservatives. The AG acts as if he's Trump's personal attorney (don't get me started on the unprecedented BS Barr has done up to this point). And the courts did decide the 2000 election. So there is precedent for courts deciding an election.
Another thing working in his favor is he only has to swing key states on the margins. Making sure some ballots aren't counted. And the GOP is well schooled in voter suppression.
But it's far from a sure thing. His plan has a ton of variables. Right now, he's not sure which exact states, which exact counties, which exact judges will be needed to steal the election. And the more variables a plan has the more likely it is to fail.
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kikanga
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:54 am Post subject: |
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I think the X-factor that worries me most are the USPS shenanigans. If some mail in ballots from high density areas in swing states don't show up or aren't sorted and counted. That wouldn't surprise me.
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:05 am Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | I think the X-factor that worries me most are the USPS shenanigans. If some mail in ballots from high density areas in swing states don't show up or aren't sorted and counted. That wouldn't surprise me. |
People need to reduce that factor when ever they can by dropping ballots off at the polling place.
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You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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Baron Von Humongous
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:20 am Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | I've really taken BVH and Wilt's arguments to heart. And I think I can definitely meet them halfway.
It is unquestionable Trump is trying to ensure he stays President whether he wins or loses.
The question is if he'll be successful.
1 thing working in his favor is the courts. He's packed them with a ton of conservatives. The AG acts as if he's Trump's personal attorney (don't get me started on the unprecedented BS Barr has done up to this point). And the courts did decide the 2000 election. So there is precedent for courts deciding an election.
Another thing working in his favor is he only has to swing key states on the margins. Making sure some ballots aren't counted. And the GOP is well schooled in voter suppression.
But it's far from a sure thing. His plan has a ton of variables. Right now, he's not sure which exact states, which exact counties, which exact judges will be needed to steal the election. And the more variables a plan has the more likely it is to fail. |
Biden seems to be in good position to keep Hillary Clinton's map and win Michigan. That would be 243 EC votes for Biden and he would need 27 more to win the election (270).
Trump knows the most likely (maybe only) path for Biden to win goes through Pennsylvania (20 EC votes) and that Pennsylvania has a number of rules in place which make it easier to vote by mail, but that the state doesn't have an early count on mail-in or pre-election day in-person votes. We also see DeJoy has focused a lot of his USPS sabotage effort in Philly and the surrounding suburbs.
That means Trump feels confident in Florida, which makes sense: there's a GOP trifecta in place with the most Trumpian Governor alive in DeSantis. On a positive note, Florida counts ballots early so we should have a result within 24-48 hours unless a recount is triggered. If Biden loses PA and FLA, he has to win WI, AZ, and pull at least one surprise victory in one of NC or OH or IA, which is a scary proposition.
But Biden has polled ahead of Trump in PA the entire election as he has in WI and AZ. Florida is possible, but never count on Florida, and NC/OH/IA/NE-2 look like they're polling within the margin of error. AZ also counts early, so if Biden wins AZ and is ahead in PA on the morning of 11/4, even with a backlog of mail-in ballots I'd say Pennsylvania will be Biden's by a comfortable enough margin that Trump's efforts won't matter. And obviously if Biden wins Florida, Trump is toast on election night.
The PA GOP's faithless electors ploy is an empty threat from desperate idiots that won't make it past the PA Supreme Court. What I don't know is what mechanisms exist to stop late ballot counting. Trump will try everything to halt late ballot counting in PA/WI, but as far as I know there's nothing in either state's electoral laws that puts a hard end date on vote counting and the Constitution has a clear end date for EC votes on 12/14. Even though everyone will try to rush things through, trials take time. Is a federal court going to issue an injunction to stop state ballot counting to try and ram through a decision before 12/14? On what grounds?
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Last edited by Baron Von Humongous on Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:26 am; edited 2 times in total |
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:23 am Post subject: |
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Bloomberg unveils $40M Florida TV ad buy
| Quote: | New York billionaire Michael Bloomberg announced Friday that he’s blanketing Florida airwaves with a $40 million TV ad buy, the first since he pledged to spend $100 million in the Sunshine State to defeat President Donald Trump.
The massive buy, being made through the Bloomberg-funded Independence USA PAC, comes the same week that nearly 5 million vote-by-mail ballots are being sent to Florida voters in the the start of what effectively is a month-long Election Day in the nation’s largest swing state.
“This fall, the path to the presidency goes through Florida — and with mail-in ballots going out this week, voters will soon start deciding who gets its 29 electoral votes,” Bloomberg said in a statement to POLITICO. “That’s why we’re doing everything in our power to tell the story of Donald Trump’s failed presidency and why we need Joe Biden as the next president of the United States.” |
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:31 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Jonathan Martin @jmartNYT
Among voters over 65 in Ohio...
Q poll:
Biden: 52
Trump: 45
Fox poll:
Biden: 51
Trump: 43
2016 exits:
Trump: 56
Clinton: 43 |
My conclusions:
1) People over 65 don't want to die of COVID-19
2) People over 65 have a great deal of internalized sexism. |
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jodeke
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Location: In a world where admitting to not knowing something is considered a great way to learn.
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:32 am Post subject: |
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DAVID MOYE
Sep 25th 2020 1:53PM
Nancy Pelosi still doesn't think Biden should debate Trump
LINK
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America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves. |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:52 am Post subject: |
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I e read twice that faithless electors won’t get past the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. But that’s not the end of the road. It’s the US Supreme Court.
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“We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” ― Elie Wiesel |
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kikanga
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:55 am Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: | | I e read twice that faithless electors won’t get past the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. But that’s not the end of the road. It’s the US Supreme Court. |
You have nothing to worry about. It's not like the US Supreme Court would have the gall to decide an election. 
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Baron Von Humongous
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: | | I e read twice that faithless electors won’t get past the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. But that’s not the end of the road. It’s the US Supreme Court. |
You're correct, I'm wrong. SCOTUS declined to pick up the redistricting issue in 2018 after the PA Supreme Court knocked down the PA GOP challenge.
Fine, you're all correct. Time to go eat a bullet.
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SGV-Laker fan
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Florida governor removed all COVID restrictions, anyone think this is a plot for election day? if COVID surges again in Florida between now and election day, who benefits more? less people physically going to poll locations, who benefits more? thank about it. |
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:42 pm Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | Omar Little wrote: | | I e read twice that faithless electors won’t get past the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. But that’s not the end of the road. It’s the US Supreme Court. |
You're correct, I'm wrong. SCOTUS declined to pick up the redistricting issue in 2018 after the PA Supreme Court knocked down the PA GOP challenge.
Fine, you're all correct. Time to go eat a bullet. |
Naw. Save them for the Repugnicans
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You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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trmiv
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:50 pm Post subject: |
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| SGV-Laker fan wrote: | | Florida governor removed all COVID restrictions, anyone think this is a plot for election day? if COVID surges again in Florida between now and election day, who benefits more? less people physically going to poll locations, who benefits more? thank about it. |
Of course it is, but not in that way. I don’t think the aim here is to spike the numbers and then force people to stay home on Election Day. The goal is to pretend everything is OK so any independent voter types or doubting 2016 Trump voters who were concerned about the virus and the response start thinking “hey this isn’t so bad, look we’re all open” and start thinking good things about DeathSantis again and then about Trump. All they need is 1-2% and Florida is in the bag for Trump.
As I’ve been saying repeatedly here don’t depend on Florida for any kind of blue wave blowout. We elected Rick Scott and Ron DeathSantis in 2018 for crying out loud. (well not ME, I didn’t vote for these (bleep)) |
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kikanga
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | Omar Little wrote: | | I e read twice that faithless electors won’t get past the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. But that’s not the end of the road. It’s the US Supreme Court. |
You're correct, I'm wrong. SCOTUS declined to pick up the redistricting issue in 2018 after the PA Supreme Court knocked down the PA GOP challenge.
Fine, you're all correct. Time to go eat a bullet. |
Whoa. That's a bit extreme
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NMLaker
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:54 pm Post subject: |
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| How does the felon voting issue play out in this election (in Florida)? |
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Hector the Pup
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Location: L.A.
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | Omar Little wrote: | | I e read twice that faithless electors won’t get past the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. But that’s not the end of the road. It’s the US Supreme Court. |
You're correct, I'm wrong. SCOTUS declined to pick up the redistricting issue in 2018 after the PA Supreme Court knocked down the PA GOP challenge.
Fine, you're all correct. Time to go eat a bullet. |
Like kikanga, you need to find a middle ground. It's definitely not the end of the world, but everything is definitely not ok and anyone who says otherwise is flat out lying. |
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Hector the Pup wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | Omar Little wrote: | | I e read twice that faithless electors won’t get past the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. But that’s not the end of the road. It’s the US Supreme Court. |
You're correct, I'm wrong. SCOTUS declined to pick up the redistricting issue in 2018 after the PA Supreme Court knocked down the PA GOP challenge.
Fine, you're all correct. Time to go eat a bullet. |
Like kikanga, you need to find a middle ground. It's definitely not the end of the world, but everything is definitely not ok and anyone who says otherwise is flat out lying. |
I just see it as a matter of being aware of all the potential scenarios, being aware of the possible extremes therein, not over-reacting to them and mentally preparing for the fact that just about anything can happen . . . even what would have seemed impossible 4 years ago.
_________________
You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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Hector the Pup
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Joined: 25 Jul 2002
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Location: L.A.
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:38 pm Post subject: |
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| DaMuleRules wrote: | | Hector the Pup wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | Omar Little wrote: | | I e read twice that faithless electors won’t get past the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. But that’s not the end of the road. It’s the US Supreme Court. |
You're correct, I'm wrong. SCOTUS declined to pick up the redistricting issue in 2018 after the PA Supreme Court knocked down the PA GOP challenge.
Fine, you're all correct. Time to go eat a bullet. |
Like kikanga, you need to find a middle ground. It's definitely not the end of the world, but everything is definitely not ok and anyone who says otherwise is flat out lying. |
I just see it as a matter of being aware of all the potential scenarios, being aware of the possible extremes therein, not over-reacting to them and mentally preparing for the fact that just about anything can happen . . . even what would have seemed impossible 4 years ago. |
You're right. The phrase 'that would never happen here' went out the window a few years ago. |
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Wilt
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:07 pm Post subject: |
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Being aware of extreme scenarios is fine, but giving them too much credit might have a negative impact on our side. If all people keep hearing until election day is "Bill Barr has plan that will overturn the election," it might dissuade enough people from voting to make the election closer than it would have been otherwise. People should go with the assumption that the election is open and fair. And if there are shenanigans, we can deal with them once November 3rd arrives. There's a reason Biden hired hundreds of lawyers. Whatever they're planning, the best scenario is to have as many people as possible voting for Biden, making their case harder.
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:28 pm Post subject: |
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The other way to look at it is hey, they are going to try and rat (bleep) the election any way they can, so we have to vote in massive numbers AND prepare for them to try and steal it anyway.
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DancingBarry
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:31 pm Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | I think the X-factor that worries me most are the USPS shenanigans. If some mail in ballots from high density areas in swing states don't show up or aren't sorted and counted. That wouldn't surprise me. |
Wasn't it the stat that 72% of the post offices impacted by the sorting machine removal were places Hillary won? And some of those facilities, no way they can get those machines back up and running. They straight up trashed them. |
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Wilt
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:44 pm Post subject: |
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So it's Amy Coney Barrett. He picked a woman to destroy all the progress women have made in the last few decades.
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Hector the Pup
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Wilt wrote: | | So it's Amy Coney Barrett. He picked a woman to destroy all the progress women have made in the last few decades. |
I look forward to president Biden submitting his 4 supreme Court appointees. |
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