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fiendishoc
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 7:05 pm    Post subject:

A Mad Chinaman wrote:
fiendishoc wrote:
A Mad Chinaman wrote:
BScott has stated (and Coach Dave confirmed on air, that he rarely call plays - is that true?
He's said that for veteran PGs like Lin or Price, he lets them call the play out of the playbook most of the time. For a rookie like Clarkson, Byron will do more of the playcalling.
So one wonders why JLin doesn't call more P&R action.

Did I remember correctly that BScott said that he will let Clarkson call the plays?

How was Tarik Black's sprained ankle?

Outside of "Invisible" Johnson and "Swing Pass" RKelly, what are the SF options? Some commentators have compared Johnson to Devean George - good or bad comparison? Could Ron Artest/Metta World Peace/Big Panda's presence mean that he would be helping SFs like RKelly find ways to be more effective and finding ways to get off clean shots?

It seems as if Davis is productive - with or without JLin. Why do people think that a needed/required proponent of JLin's successful is depended on Davis. When JLin was aggressive and played with a purpose, he was successful - Davis or no Davis. Should not the same type of chemistry exist with JHill and Boozer?
Note: Acknowledge that Davis knows how to play with JLin in a more effective fashion than JHill/Boozer

Interesting that in the first half, there was excellent ball movement without Swaggy P playing, since often he just pounds his dribble to the detriment of any other movement (sounds familiar?)

Not sure what BScott is doing?

Given the current record, injuries, unproven young players and a need to use the remaining games to see which players are keepers while providing as much opportunities as possible - what are the best options available to BScott (especially since this is almost like an extended preseason/audition time for everybody concern?


The interview I was citing was earlier in the season, so maybe now Byron does have Clarkson calling more plays himself.

Regarding Lin, yes he seems content to give the ball up to Hill or Swaggy a lot of the times, rather than trying to take the bull by the horns and call his own number. It's probably what he thinks is expected of him, and also the spacing isn't right the most of the time for a PnR (because of Hill a lot of the time). If I were him, I'd motion for Hill to get down to the baseline to create space, and then the other big to come up and set the pick. Then again, we don't know what the coaching staff has told him he can and cannot do.

Regarding, Byron, I think it's best we take Stu's advice, and "Never try to get inside a coach's head". A lot of his moves only make sense if we are trying to tank for our pick, but we really don't know for sure.

For SF, the option is to play Nick more minutes when he gets back. Nick is playing four less minutes than he did last year, which is puzzling considering our lack of depth at that position. Yes he's shot a ton of bad shots this year, but at the same time we tell him to take over on offense and don't really run anything to make it easier on him. His shot attempts close to the basket have disappeared, probably also to do with the bad spacing. A structured offense would make him a lot more useful. If we manage to create some more roster space, there are also some guys in the D league worth taking a low risk look at, like Roscoe Smith.

As for the last point, I'd simply bench Boozer and Hill completely, play Kelly at PF instead of SF to develop him as a stretch four (many teams are dying for stretch fours- I don't know why we'd try to turn ours into a three), and try to develop some chemistry between the younger players. I don't think it would hurt Hill's trade value because everyone has had a enough time to see what he can do. Plus, people would understand the youth movement.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 9:35 pm    Post subject:

fiendishoc wrote:
A Mad Chinaman wrote:
fiendishoc wrote:
A Mad Chinaman wrote:
BScott has stated (and Coach Dave confirmed on air, that he rarely call plays - is that true?
He's said that for veteran PGs like Lin or Price, he lets them call the play out of the playbook most of the time. For a rookie like Clarkson, Byron will do more of the playcalling.
So one wonders why JLin doesn't call more P&R action.

Did I remember correctly that BScott said that he will let Clarkson call the plays?

How was Tarik Black's sprained ankle?

Outside of "Invisible" Johnson and "Swing Pass" RKelly, what are the SF options? Some commentators have compared Johnson to Devean George - good or bad comparison? Could Ron Artest/Metta World Peace/Big Panda's presence mean that he would be helping SFs like RKelly find ways to be more effective and finding ways to get off clean shots?

It seems as if Davis is productive - with or without JLin. Why do people think that a needed/required proponent of JLin's successful is depended on Davis. When JLin was aggressive and played with a purpose, he was successful - Davis or no Davis. Should not the same type of chemistry exist with JHill and Boozer?
Note: Acknowledge that Davis knows how to play with JLin in a more effective fashion than JHill/Boozer

Interesting that in the first half, there was excellent ball movement without Swaggy P playing, since often he just pounds his dribble to the detriment of any other movement (sounds familiar?)

Not sure what BScott is doing?

Given the current record, injuries, unproven young players and a need to use the remaining games to see which players are keepers while providing as much opportunities as possible - what are the best options available to BScott (especially since this is almost like an extended preseason/audition time for everybody concern?
The interview I was citing was earlier in the season, so maybe now Byron does have Clarkson calling more plays himself.

Regarding Lin, yes he seems content to give the ball up to Hill or Swaggy a lot of the times, rather than trying to take the bull by the horns and call his own number. It's probably what he thinks is expected of him, and also the spacing isn't right the most of the time for a PnR (because of Hill a lot of the time). If I were him, I'd motion for Hill to get down to the baseline to create space, and then the other big to come up and set the pick. Then again, we don't know what the coaching staff has told him he can and cannot do.

Regarding, Byron, I think it's best we take Stu's advice, and "Never try to get inside a coach's head". A lot of his moves only make sense if we are trying to tank for our pick, but we really don't know for sure.

For SF, the option is to play Nick more minutes when he gets back. Nick is playing four less minutes than he did last year, which is puzzling considering our lack of depth at that position. Yes he's shot a ton of bad shots this year, but at the same time we tell him to take over on offense and don't really run anything to make it easier on him. His shot attempts close to the basket have disappeared, probably also to do with the bad spacing. A structured offense would make him a lot more useful. If we manage to create some more roster space, there are also some guys in the D league worth taking a low risk look at, like Roscoe Smith.

As for the last point, I'd simply bench Boozer and Hill completely, play Kelly at PF instead of SF to develop him as a stretch four (many teams are dying for stretch fours- I don't know why we'd try to turn ours into a three), and try to develop some chemistry between the younger players. I don't think it would hurt Hill's trade value because everyone has had a enough time to see what he can do. Plus, people would understand the youth movement.
Your assessment rang true until JLin decided to be aggressive and was successful - at least in the first half.

Ellington's words stating that the team needed to be hungrier was revealing. Don't these players know that they are playing for their NBA lives? With all the injuries, does this roster feel like they are not accountable for production, just the appearances of giving a good effort. As Big Game James and Coop said during one interview, the players kept each other accountable and was in their face when things were not done right.

The one thing that I like about Price is that he takes personal responsibility of things he has done wrong or need to improve while being angry when not winning. Once when asked if it was hard to integrate RKelly into the offense, his reply was no. If the players stick to the principals, everybody knows where everybody should be at (ala the Spurs). That means that there is a system. That could mean that either JLin is not calling the plays, don't know the plays, unwilling to tell players where they should be at or the team does not listen to him. Since the PG is the QB, these are the possibilities for JLin and Clarkson (or Price when he is in)

Understand why BScott is trying RKelly at SF. Black and Davis can't play the 3 or 5, so the only possibility is SF. Maybe he can develop into a low-budget SF like Durant and (MAYBE) Lebron since he has good handles while playing good situational help side D. Maybe he should study tapes of Larry Bird to see how he got his shots off.

Kobe has suggested to Swaggy to be more time and energy efficient on offense. Keeping the ball and not demanding doubleteams are not good elements if he is a high volume shooter with a bad shooting percentage. Since he is not a triple threat, the defense just sits on him while the others are loading the zone where he is at because they know that he ain't passing the ball or driving to the hole.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 10:55 pm    Post subject:

fiendishoc wrote:
Yes that is what Clarkson should have done, but it doesn't excuse this sorry excuse for an offensive set. This was exactly my criticism of the offense. They run a play call with only one option with stagnant movement, and when it isn't there, it resets into pickup basketball.


Interesting. Years ago, I was reading about similar ailments from the high school level and up to the pros. In one case study, a high school coach would berate the team in trying to determine where subsequent breakdowns occured immediately after the failure of an initial play call. The players would all sit there pretty much mum. The coach suspected that the breakdowns were more or less due to 1 or 2 players who in frustration, would give up on plays/options if the initial plan seemed to be not working. The coach also suspected that the players were being quiet during team meetings because none of them wanted to call each other out.

In the end, the coach decided that the best course of action would be to let the team work it out on their own. Unfortunately, this escalated to the point where one player ended up punching another player in the face during a game. Talk about 'calling someone out for failing to follow instructions.'.....

Now the Lakers are pros so I'm assuming that something akin to the above won't ever come to fruition (God forbid). However, do you think it's a case where coach Scott actually has multiple plays/options for the players to run and the team is just not complying, or is it truly a case where Scott does not institute multiple plays/options in the event of failure of the initial play call? Obviously, either case can yield fugly results.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 11:43 pm    Post subject:

@A Mad Chinaman
For sure he knows the plays and he's calling them. The problem is the plays are bad for his kind of game, where his strength is getting to the basket and his weakness is turning the ball over in traffic. With the bigs often occupying the elbows and midpost areas, their defenders can clog the lane, and his drives often get him into trouble. So if he really wanted to consistently attack, he should probably break off the plays and tell the bigs to stand in places where they would be out of the way and still be threats. Otherwise he's just letting himself be an ill fitting piece for this system. I do think that the entire system needs to be revamped, but that's another story.

@SIT_GOODWIN_SIT!
From watching them all year, it seems that they have only one option for the initial pass. Thats why you would see a post up call for Kobe turn into a catch at 21 feet from the basket. If that pass is completely denied for whatever reason, they back out and reset the play. If that initial pass is made, you still only see one option on the catch in the case of pindowns, or around two options for their elbow play. What you don't ever see is them having the initial pass denied and then swinging over to the weak side to flow into a secondary action.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:49 am    Post subject:

fiendishoc wrote:
@A Mad Chinaman
For sure he knows the plays and he's calling them. The problem is the plays are bad for his kind of game, where his strength is getting to the basket and his weakness is turning the ball over in traffic. With the bigs often occupying the elbows and midpost areas, their defenders can clog the lane, and his drives often get him into trouble. So if he really wanted to consistently attack, he should probably break off the plays and tell the bigs to stand in places where they would be out of the way and still be threats. Otherwise he's just letting himself be an ill fitting piece for this system. I do think that the entire system needs to be revamped, but that's another story.

@SIT_GOODWIN_SIT!
From watching them all year, it seems that they have only one option for the initial pass. Thats why you would see a post up call for Kobe turn into a catch at 21 feet from the basket. If that pass is completely denied for whatever reason, they back out and reset the play. If that initial pass is made, you still only see one option on the catch in the case of pindowns, or around two options for their elbow play. What you don't ever see is them having the initial pass denied and then swinging over to the weak side to flow into a secondary action.
Re: JLIn
Assessing that his weakness is turning the ball in traffic could indicate that he cannot do what most elite PGs can do like Tony Parker, Steve Nash and others. His Linsanity access and a past game where he was aggressive and definitive actions of purpose that was productive confirms that he could be a very good player. His effectiveness of closing at the rim from being behind just Lebron to his lowered success rate can't be exclusively blamed on BScotf since he is the PG. Playing with Swaggy and Boozer to give him room at the paint or having Black/Davis as screeners would seemingly be ideal for JLin. One wonders why he didn't tell players where to set the screen or where they should be. Clarkson has found seams in the same offensive schemes and shown what could be available if one is constantly entering the front court with pace

With opposing teams flooding the zone where Kobe was posting up on the pinch post, they wanted anybody else to beat them. Since Price was extremely ineffective on offense, JHill inconsistent in jump shots/post ups, Johnson mostly in "invisible mode" most of the time and Davis having limited offensive moves - there were few, if any, other options. Having Kobe as the facilitator made complete sense (considering the very limited options) because he always demanded 2.5 players always watching him giving lanes for the others. Having Swaggy or Boozer in the starting lineup would not work because they needed firepower on the bench plus they were ineffective as starters

With Nash, Randle, RKelly being injiried for an extended period of time and X (before he was waived) not available - plus a Kobe who wasn't playing all the games - severely limited any options or roster spots
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:33 am    Post subject:

^
I don't agree that both Swaggy and Boozer were needed to provide firepower on the bench, as it was the starters that needed it a lot more than the bench did. There were still a lot more lineup combinations to try with this roster, and their offense was better overall with one of them in the starting lineup. Swaggy next to facilitator Kobe for spotups and spacing would have been something to take a look at. Having all three of Lin, Swaggy and Boozer on the bench was a bit of overkill. I also would have tried Hill with the second unit, but perhaps there were some trade value considerations to look after.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:31 am    Post subject:

fiendishoc wrote:
^
I don't agree that both Swaggy and Boozer were needed to provide firepower on the bench, as it was the starters that needed it a lot more than the bench did. There were still a lot more lineup combinations to try with this roster, and their offense was better overall with one of them in the starting lineup. Swaggy next to facilitator Kobe for spotups and spacing would have been something to take a look at. Having all three of Lin, Swaggy and Boozer on the bench was a bit of overkill. I also would have tried Hill with the second unit, but perhaps there were some trade value considerations to look after.
Definitely the starters needed more offense

With BScott's proclamation that D was his focus, the decision between Johnson and Swaggy was simple for BScott. When Swaggy was a starter, he did not seem to be productive in that role (to the best of my memory) and Boozer definitely was not productive. Maybe the decision was to try to give JLin the best chance to be productive assuming that Kobe can make an offense-challenged lineup score. Obviously none of the solutions work or sustainable to the end of the season

Maybe next season will see Kobe at the 3, with Ellington and Clarkson as guards along with Randle and Davis. With a first round draft choice and CAP space to get another star and other complimentary pieces - it seems as if the foundation (Randle/Davis/Black/Clarkson - along with RKelly & Ellington) that Mitch is building will soon have us as a viable playoff team
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:26 am    Post subject:

Why does Jordan Hill hurt the offense, despite being one of our more talented offensive players?

I've touched on this topic several times in this thread and other threads and it keeps coming up, so I'll detail the full picture here. Hill serves as a prime example of why it's important to look at advanced stats as well as coaching schemes to assess a player's contribution to the team.

Hill has drastically changed his game this year and not for the better.

Here is this year's shot chart:
http://on.nba.com/1qfdCCy

And last year's shot chart:
http://on.nba.com/1yj81yB

See the difference? The season's not even half over and Hill as already taken over twice as many outside jump shots as he did in the full season last year. He shoots 38% on those shots, so his total shooting average has dropped over 7% this year. He's also grabbed offensive rebounds at a lower rate, being so far from the basket so many times. When he sets picks, he doesn't roll, so he still ends up shooting outside.

But that's not the end of the story. A casual NBA fan might think that with Hill shooting further out there's more room for other players to get to the basket. Actually, there's less room. Because he's shooting such a low percentage on a 2 point shot, it only nets on average 76 points per 100 possessions, over 21 points worse than what the best defense this year is allowing. So his defender will happily camp in the paint while he's out there unless he goes on a hot streak.

Video http://on.nba.com/1xfas4V
Movement http://on.nba.com/1EaHUhw

To use an earlier example, here we see Lin trying to run a high pick and roll with Davis. He goes away from the screen, and should have easily been able to beat the slow footed Kanters, but because Hill is standing on the perimeter, his man Favors is there to deny the drive. If Lin had taken the screen, Hill's man would have been in the way of Davis' roll. Lin has no choice but to kick back out to Ellington. Ellington tries to create off of the Hill screen, but because Hill doesn't roll to the basket, Favors is in position to contest his mid range jumper. So Wayne passes to Hill who takes the low percentage 20 foot jumper.

Now look at a play from last year when he was playing very differently:
Video http://on.nba.com/1BErbAf

Watch Hill's man, David Lee, on this possession. Because Hill gets to the baseline close to the basket and stays there while moving, Lee has to stay back next to him, freeing an open lane for Blake to get all the way there. Klay hesitates because he knows he probably is the only one who can help slow the drive, leaving Meeks free for the open 3. The dump down to Hill for the layup would be available if Lee committed to stopping Blake. Also, Hill is in good position for the offensive rebound if Meeks misses.

To get a broader picture of how Hill affects the offense when he's in the game, we can look deeper into the stats.

On/off four factors statistics
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612747/onoffcourt/fourfactors/

Indeed the team performs much worse offensively when Hill is on the floor. We shoot less efficiently, are worse on the offensive glass (his specialty), and go to the free throw line less. All symptoms of not being able to get to the basket.

Personal offensive rating is how many points per 100 possessions that your team scores when you're on the floor. Up to this point, Hill's offensive rating differential is the worst on the entire team by negative five points, which is massive:

On/off offensive efficiency numbers
Code:

    On court   Off court   Diff
Hill     98.6    106    -7.4
Bryant   100.4   103.1   -2.7
Kelly    100.3   101.8   -1.5
Young    101.6   101.7   -0.1
Clarkson 101.6   101.7   -0.1


Hill is also featured in the eight of the ten worst two man offensive lineups and the four worst three man offensive lineups for the team this season. (min 200 minutes)

Worst lineups sorted by offensive rating
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612747/lineups/advanced/?CF=MIN*G*200&GroupQuantity=2&sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1

http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612747/lineups/advanced/?CF=MIN*G*200&GroupQuantity=3&sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1

It doesn't matter if he's playing against starters with the starters or against bench players with the bench, the result is bad offense. At the very least, he shouldn't be that much worse than Wes Johnson, who he shares the most minutes in the starting lineup with, but he is. It's happened in a steady progression, as Hill drifted further and further away from the basket as the season went on. In the loss to the Heat, you could see Hill's man, Bosh, just playing free safety out there and helping cut off penetration all over the place.

To be fair, there are more problems than just Hill, and it's not completely his fault- the other players tend to settle for outside shots, and many parts of the offense are designed to get long 2's. But Hill being in the way does seem to compound these problems. The recent win against Chicago was encouraging with Hill being more active in the paint. The guy is talented offensively (his defense numbers are also the worst on the team), but like many other players on the team, the offensive scheme has encouraged him to play to the worst parts of his game for most of the season.


Last edited by fiendishoc on Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:29 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:20 pm    Post subject:

Great analysis fiend. The game & stat tracking at nba.com has really stepped up this season.

I was very surprised during the Chicago game when Hill posted up during the first quarter and when Hill drove toward the basket instead of passing or shooting. I was equally surprised to see that Hill had 88 touches and 11 uncontested fga.

My first thought is that teams must consider an outside shot from Hill as preferable, and the Lakers coaching staff has picked up that and have instructed Hill to get higher percentage shots.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:34 pm    Post subject:

Len wrote:
Great analysis fiend. The game & stat tracking at nba.com has really stepped up this season.

I was very surprised during the Chicago game when Hill posted up during the first quarter and when Hill drove toward the basket instead of passing or shooting. I was equally surprised to see that Hill had 88 touches and 11 uncontested fga.

My first thought is that teams must consider an outside shot from Hill as preferable, and the Lakers coaching staff has picked up that and have instructed Hill to get higher percentage shots.


Yeah, I love stats.nba.com now. The motion tracking and video of every single possession in every game is awesome.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:59 pm    Post subject:

fiendishoc wrote:
Why does Jordan Hill hurt the offense, despite being one of our more talented offensive players?

I've touched on this topic several times in this thread and other threads and it keeps coming up, so I'll detail the full picture here. Hill serves as a prime example of why it's important to look at advanced stats as well as coaching schemes to assess a player's contribution to the team.

Hill has drastically changed his game this year and not for the better.

Here is this year's shot chart:
http://on.nba.com/1qfdCCy

And last year's shot chart:
http://on.nba.com/1yj81yB

See the difference? The season's not even half over and Hill as already taken over twice as many outside jump shots as he did in the full season last year. He shoots 38% on those shots, so his total shooting average has dropped over 7% this year. He's also grabbed offensive rebounds at a lower rate, being so far from the basket so many times. When he sets picks, he doesn't roll, so he still ends up shooting outside.

But that's not the end of the story. A casual NBA fan might think that with Hill shooting further out there's more room for other players to get to the basket. Actually, there's less room. Because he's shooting such a low percentage on a 2 point shot, it only nets on average 76 points per 100 possessions, over 21 points worse than what the best defense this year is allowing. So his defender will happily camp in the paint while he's out there unless he goes on a hot streak.

Video http://on.nba.com/1xfas4V
Movement http://on.nba.com/1EaHUhw

To use an earlier example, here we see Lin trying to run a high pick and roll with Davis. He goes away from the screen, and should have easily been able to beat the slow footed Kanters, but because Hill is standing on the perimeter, his man Favors is there to deny the drive. If Lin had taken the screen, Hill's man would have been in the way of Davis' roll. Lin has no choice but to kick back out to Ellington. Ellington tries to create off of the Hill screen, but because Hill doesn't roll to the basket, Favors is in position to contest his mid range jumper. So Wayne passes to Hill who takes the low percentage 20 foot jumper.

Now look at a play from last year when he was playing very differently:
Video http://on.nba.com/1BErbAf

Watch Hill's man, David Lee, on this possession. Because Hill gets to the baseline close to the basket and stays there while moving, Lee has to stay back next to him, freeing an open lane for Blake to get all the way there. Klay hesitates because he knows he probably is the only one who can help slow the drive, leaving Meeks free for the open 3. The dump down to Hill for the layup would be available if Lee committed to stopping Blake. Also, Hill is in good position for the offensive rebound if Meeks misses.

To get a broader picture of how Hill affects the offense when he's in the game, we can look deeper into the stats.

On/off four factors statistics
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612747/onoffcourt/fourfactors/

Indeed the team performs much worse offensively when Hill is on the floor. We shoot less efficiently, are worse on the offensive glass (his specialty), and go to the free throw line less. All symptoms of not being able to get to the basket.

Personal offensive rating is how many points per 100 possessions that your team scores when you're on the floor. Up to this point, Hill's offensive rating differential is the worst on the entire team by negative five points, which is massive:

On/off offensive efficiency numbers
Code:

    On court   Off court   Diff
Hill     98.6    106    -7.4
Bryant   100.4   103.1   -2.7
Kelly    100.3   101.8   -1.5
Young    101.6   101.7   -0.1
Clarkson 101.6   101.7   -0.1


Hill is also featured in the eight of the ten worst two man offensive lineups and the four worst three man offensive lineups for the team this season. (min 200 minutes)

Worst lineups sorted by offensive rating
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612747/lineups/advanced/?CF=MIN*G*200&GroupQuantity=2&sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1

http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612747/lineups/advanced/?CF=MIN*G*200&GroupQuantity=3&sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1

It doesn't matter if he's playing against starters with the starters or against bench players with the bench, the result is bad offense. At the very least, he shouldn't be that much worse than Wes Johnson, who he shares the most minutes in the starting lineup with, but he is. It's happened in a steady progression, as Hill drifted further and further away from the basket as the season went on. In the loss to the Heat, you could see Hill's man, Bosh, just playing free safety out there and helping cut off penetration all over the place.

To be fair, there are more problems than just Hill, and it's not completely his fault- the other players tend to settle for outside shots, and many parts of the offense are designed to get long 2's. But Hill being in the way does seem to compound these problems. The recent win against Chicago was encouraging with Hill being more active in the paint. The guy is talented offensively (his defense numbers are also the worst on the team), but like many other players on the team, the offensive scheme has encouraged him to play to the worst parts of his game for most of the season.
Great Great Breakdowns!!

I need to learn how to use the websites you've referenced much better

With Kobe and Swaggy out for NYC, should Ellington or JLin (maybe Boozer) be relied on for scoring instead of JHill?

Growing weary of basketball depended on mainly 3pt shooters, it appears that the Lakers have no dependable low post offensive theats - true?
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 6:42 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
Great Great Breakdowns!!

I need to learn how to use the websites you've referenced much better

With Kobe and Swaggy out for NYC, should Ellington or JLin (maybe Boozer) be relied on for scoring instead of JHill?

Growing weary of basketball depended on mainly 3pt shooters, it appears that the Lakers have no dependable low post offensive theats - true?


In today's NBA everyone knows that getting to the basket is the most efficient shot (including fts) and getting 3's, especially corner 3's is the next most efficient. The former opens up the latter, and vice versa. The question is how do you get there. In the past, post play was the way to go, with the restrictions on zone defense. You could force a double team with by posting any position. These days, defenses will overload the strong side, and now only a handful of players can do damage in the post with any sort of efficiency. That's why the league has moved so much towards pick and roll. Both the ball handler and the roll man are threats to get to the basket, and if defenses collapse, they open additional threats on the 3 point line or the basket area.

In the context of today's Lakers. They have no reliable way of getting to the basket in this offense, especially with Hill up top. Their most efficient play in the half court seems to be running tight pin downs for Ellington because he's such a good shooter from the 10-16 foot area (52.6% vs 39.2% from 16-22ft). So, the question becomes how to get to the basket- and it rides on how Hill plays. If he gets a weaker interior defender like Gasol on him, he can be aggressive and take the ball to the basket. If not, then he should get down to the baseline like last year to give room for Clarkson/Lin/Davis PnRs. The Lakers take a below average amount of threes (7th least in the NBA adjusted for pace) and should take more. But too many are of their threes pull up off a screen variety, rather than spot up off passes. This is because of their lack of a clear strategy to get into the paint.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:29 am    Post subject:

fiendishoc wrote:
Quote:
Great Great Breakdowns!!

I need to learn how to use the websites you've referenced much better

With Kobe and Swaggy out for NYC, should Ellington or JLin (maybe Boozer) be relied on for scoring instead of JHill?

Growing weary of basketball depended on mainly 3pt shooters, it appears that the Lakers have no dependable low post offensive theats - true?


In today's NBA everyone knows that getting to the basket is the most efficient shot (including fts) and getting 3's, especially corner 3's is the next most efficient. The former opens up the latter, and vice versa. The question is how do you get there. In the past, post play was the way to go, with the restrictions on zone defense. You could force a double team with by posting any position. These days, defenses will overload the strong side, and now only a handful of players can do damage in the post with any sort of efficiency. That's why the league has moved so much towards pick and roll. Both the ball handler and the roll man are threats to get to the basket, and if defenses collapse, they open additional threats on the 3 point line or the basket area.

In the context of today's Lakers. They have no reliable way of getting to the basket in this offense, especially with Hill up top. Their most efficient play in the half court seems to be running tight pin downs for Ellington because he's such a good shooter from the 10-16 foot area (52.6% vs 39.2% from 16-22ft). So, the question becomes how to get to the basket- and it rides on how Hill plays. If he gets a weaker interior defender like Gasol on him, he can be aggressive and take the ball to the basket. If not, then he should get down to the baseline like last year to give room for Clarkson/Lin/Davis PnRs. The Lakers take a below average amount of threes (7th least in the NBA adjusted for pace) and should take more. But too many are of their threes pull up off a screen variety, rather than spot up off passes. This is because of their lack of a clear strategy to get into the paint.


Could J. Hill be used as stretch 4? He could shoot basically a step inside the 3 point line.... was it better when he play at 4?
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:56 am    Post subject:

TTNN4 wrote:

Could J. Hill be used as stretch 4? He could shoot basically a step inside the 3 point line.... was it better when he play at 4?


If he can step back to the three point line and lose only around 3% in accuracy beyond the arc, then it would be a game changer, regardless if he's a four or a five. His points per shot out there would be over 1, and defenses would have to step out to him to guard him, freeing up everyone else, and the offense might actually work. Of course you'd still want him under the basket on certain possessions for offensive rebounds. It might actually make him a bargain at 9mn per year. However, I don't think he can do it or else he would have done so already.

Inside the line is actually useless unless you can hit close to 50% of your shots.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:28 pm    Post subject:

fiendishoc wrote:
TTNN4 wrote:
Could J. Hill be used as stretch 4? He could shoot basically a step inside the 3 point line.... was it better when he play at 4?
If he can step back to the three point line and lose only around 3% in accuracy beyond the arc, then it would be a game changer, regardless if he's a four or a five. His points per shot out there would be over 1, and defenses would have to step out to him to guard him, freeing up everyone else, and the offense might actually work. Of course you'd still want him under the basket on certain possessions for offensive rebounds. It might actually make him a bargain at 9mn per year. However, I don't think he can do it or else he would have done so already.

Inside the line is actually useless unless you can hit close to 50% of your shots.
If he is not getting boards, hustle/effort points and rim protection - what is his value since he is not a good passer (ala the Gasol brothers)
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:02 am    Post subject:

So, most of the offensive possessions against the Knicks made me want to tear my eyes out, especially the half arsed motion that achieved nothing but run time off the shot clock before jacking up a long two, and Wes doing God knows what. There was a possession where you could see something diagrammed on the coach's clipboard, but when play started, the players didn't run anything resembling it, and mostly looked confused (I couldn't make any sense of the diagram either).

But I wanted to point out that after Hill went out, the high pick and rolls got a lot easier. In fact, they probably should have run it on every possession.

Hill in, his man camped in the lane:
http://on.nba.com/1BPqsvT
http://on.nba.com/1BPqLXQ
http://on.nba.com/1BPr1G1

Hill out, Black and Boozer drawing their man down to baseline or open baseline:
http://on.nba.com/1BPsZq4
http://on.nba.com/1BPtwbs
http://on.nba.com/1BPp1gY
http://on.nba.com/1BPtFf9
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 11:11 am    Post subject:

fiend, what do you think of the zone the lakers ran to start the game against NY?
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 4:45 pm    Post subject:

22 wrote:
fiend, what do you think of the zone the lakers ran to start the game against NY?


I haven't been a fan of the Lakers going to zone this season at all. I wish I had the stats on it, because it seems like more often then not they get lit up. In this game, I sort of get why they tried zone to start the game. Although Phil would say that the triangle is designed to beat zone, historically his Lakers have struggled against it. Also, perhaps they thought that it would help against Melo. Against the Knicks, the results were mixed. The defensive rating wasn't good but it wasn't that much worse than the Lakers the rest of the game. They got burned by Jason Smith on a couple of plays that seemed like a prepared counter to the zone, where Calderon drove baseline and got it to Smith in the corner for the jumper. Afterwards, they ditched it.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:13 pm    Post subject:

fiendishoc wrote:
22 wrote:
fiend, what do you think of the zone the lakers ran to start the game against NY?


I haven't been a fan of the Lakers going to zone this season at all. I wish I had the stats on it, because it seems like more often then not they get lit up. In this game, I sort of get why they tried zone to start the game. Although Phil would say that the triangle is designed to beat zone, historically his Lakers have struggled against it. Also, perhaps they thought that it would help against Melo. Against the Knicks, the results were mixed. The defensive rating wasn't good but it wasn't that much worse than the Lakers the rest of the game. They got burned by Jason Smith on a couple of plays that seemed like a prepared counter to the zone, where Calderon drove baseline and got it to Smith in the corner for the jumper. Afterwards, they ditched it.


Thanks Fiend, I agree
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:55 am    Post subject:

fiendishoc wrote:
So, most of the offensive possessions against the Knicks made me want to tear my eyes out, especially the half arsed motion that achieved nothing but run time off the shot clock before jacking up a long two, and Wes doing God knows what. There was a possession where you could see something diagrammed on the coach's clipboard, but when play started, the players didn't run anything resembling it, and mostly looked confused (I couldn't make any sense of the diagram either).

But I wanted to point out that after Hill went out, the high pick and rolls got a lot easier. In fact, they probably should have run it on every possession.

Hill in, his man camped in the lane:
http://on.nba.com/1BPqsvT
http://on.nba.com/1BPqLXQ
http://on.nba.com/1BPr1G1

Hill out, Black and Boozer drawing their man down to baseline or open baseline:
http://on.nba.com/1BPsZq4
http://on.nba.com/1BPtwbs
http://on.nba.com/1BPp1gY
http://on.nba.com/1BPtFf9
Agree that the James Worthy-described "window viper" motion showed that did not place a high value or have a purpose for every prescious second of the shot clock.

As the saying goes, there is a reason why you are so open!!!!
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2015 8:02 am    Post subject:

Feb 4 vs. Bucks, Lin's last 3 shot in regulation...

I wanted to pose some questions here regarding strategy lest potentially get sucked into the Lin smorgasbord.

When Lin was dribbling about before the shot I initially thought wait, is it possible that Scott drew up a play to reward Lin in some way to take the last shot? Then I thought nah... Then, if so, why not set up some continuous picks and let him drive? He either hopefully draws a foul, makes the shot, or dishes, etc. Otherwise, mathematically, that was probably going to be a tough 3 no matter who took it.

The Bucks don't want to necessarily foul because of the higher probability of Laker points. Intentional or not, Lin took the shot at the very end of the shot clock. Thus, whether or not the shot led to a 24 sec violation wouldn't have been as meaningful other than the possibility of the Lakers getting an offensive rebound (or getting fouled in the process).

Ok..still, let's say Lin goofed on his part. However, getting away from the old banal ' BS sucks' rhetoric, and in trying to give Scott the benefit of the doubt, any thoughts on what/how he envisioned those last minute sequences from a strategic point of view?
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2015 5:50 pm    Post subject:

SIT_GOODWIN_SIT! wrote:
Feb 4 vs. Bucks, Lin's last 3 shot in regulation...

I wanted to pose some questions here regarding strategy lest potentially get sucked into the Lin smorgasbord.

When Lin was dribbling about before the shot I initially thought wait, is it possible that Scott drew up a play to reward Lin in some way to take the last shot? Then I thought nah... Then, if so, why not set up some continuous picks and let him drive? He either hopefully draws a foul, makes the shot, or dishes, etc. Otherwise, mathematically, that was probably going to be a tough 3 no matter who took it.

The Bucks don't want to necessarily foul because of the higher probability of Laker points. Intentional or not, Lin took the shot at the very end of the shot clock. Thus, whether or not the shot led to a 24 sec violation wouldn't have been as meaningful other than the possibility of the Lakers getting an offensive rebound (or getting fouled in the process).

Ok..still, let's say Lin goofed on his part. However, getting away from the old banal ' BS sucks' rhetoric, and in trying to give Scott the benefit of the doubt, any thoughts on what/how he envisioned those last minute sequences from a strategic point of view?


Scott doesn't draw up plays in end of game. He tells the team which player to get the ball to, and maybe diagrams how he wants to get the player the ball in isolation. Once it does get there, he leaves it up to the player to figure out what to do.

So in this case, Lin gets the ball in isolation, and then decides to signal for Boozer to come set a pick for him on the high screen roll. You can see Middleton recognize this and tell Henson to switch with him so he could be the one defending the screen. Boozer comes from the left side. Lin thinks he can use the screen as a decoy and beat Knight going right, but Knight plays him perfectly, cutting him off. Boozer sees this and tries to set a screen for him going middle. But it was poorly executed as either Lin went to early or Boozer slipped to early, which left Lin matched up one on one with the long armed Middleton after the Bucks switched. You could tell Lin was in head down driving mode because he doesn't even look for Boozer on the slip. To make matters worse, Wayne had already come up to the wing as an outlet in the case Lin got trapped- but that had the effect of bringing his man up to contest Lin's drive. If he had stayed in the corner, then there might have been more room for the drive, but it also ran the risk of not having an outlet. But Lin didn't look like he was going to beat his man off the dribble anyway. In the end, Middleton was just too big for Lin to shoot the three over.

Video: http://on.nba.com/1F8p772
Movement: http://on.nba.com/1BYWUw6

It was a case of good defense beating simple offense.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2015 6:45 pm    Post subject:

fiendishoc wrote:
SIT_GOODWIN_SIT! wrote:
Feb 4 vs. Bucks, Lin's last 3 shot in regulation...

I wanted to pose some questions here regarding strategy lest potentially get sucked into the Lin smorgasbord.

When Lin was dribbling about before the shot I initially thought wait, is it possible that Scott drew up a play to reward Lin in some way to take the last shot? Then I thought nah... Then, if so, why not set up some continuous picks and let him drive? He either hopefully draws a foul, makes the shot, or dishes, etc. Otherwise, mathematically, that was probably going to be a tough 3 no matter who took it.

The Bucks don't want to necessarily foul because of the higher probability of Laker points. Intentional or not, Lin took the shot at the very end of the shot clock. Thus, whether or not the shot led to a 24 sec violation wouldn't have been as meaningful other than the possibility of the Lakers getting an offensive rebound (or getting fouled in the process).

Ok..still, let's say Lin goofed on his part. However, getting away from the old banal ' BS sucks' rhetoric, and in trying to give Scott the benefit of the doubt, any thoughts on what/how he envisioned those last minute sequences from a strategic point of view?


Scott doesn't draw up plays in end of game. He tells the team which player to get the ball to, and maybe diagrams how he wants to get the player the ball in isolation. Once it does get there, he leaves it up to the player to figure out what to do.

So in this case, Lin gets the ball in isolation, and then decides to signal for Boozer to come set a pick for him on the high screen roll. You can see Middleton recognize this and tell Henson to switch with him so he could be the one defending the screen. Boozer comes from the left side. Lin thinks he can use the screen as a decoy and beat Knight going right, but Knight plays him perfectly, cutting him off. Boozer sees this and tries to set a screen for him going middle. But it was poorly executed as either Lin went to early or Boozer slipped to early, which left Lin matched up one on one with the long armed Middleton after the Bucks switched. You could tell Lin was in head down driving mode because he doesn't even look for Boozer on the slip. To make matters worse, Wayne had already come up to the wing as an outlet in the case Lin got trapped- but that had the effect of bringing his man up to contest Lin's drive. If he had stayed in the corner, then there might have been more room for the drive, but it also ran the risk of not having an outlet. But Lin didn't look like he was going to beat his man off the dribble anyway. In the end, Middleton was just too big for Lin to shoot the three over.

Video: http://on.nba.com/1F8p772
Movement: http://on.nba.com/1BYWUw6

It was a case of good defense beating simple offense.


Yup, got it. Good stuff. Thank you very much. It doesn't matter how many times I've seen those movement clips in the past... I still get a kick out of them!
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2015 7:13 pm    Post subject:

SIT_GOODWIN_SIT! wrote:
fiendishoc wrote:
SIT_GOODWIN_SIT! wrote:
Feb 4 vs. Bucks, Lin's last 3 shot in regulation...

I wanted to pose some questions here regarding strategy lest potentially get sucked into the Lin smorgasbord.

When Lin was dribbling about before the shot I initially thought wait, is it possible that Scott drew up a play to reward Lin in some way to take the last shot? Then I thought nah... Then, if so, why not set up some continuous picks and let him drive? He either hopefully draws a foul, makes the shot, or dishes, etc. Otherwise, mathematically, that was probably going to be a tough 3 no matter who took it.

The Bucks don't want to necessarily foul because of the higher probability of Laker points. Intentional or not, Lin took the shot at the very end of the shot clock. Thus, whether or not the shot led to a 24 sec violation wouldn't have been as meaningful other than the possibility of the Lakers getting an offensive rebound (or getting fouled in the process).

Ok..still, let's say Lin goofed on his part. However, getting away from the old banal ' BS sucks' rhetoric, and in trying to give Scott the benefit of the doubt, any thoughts on what/how he envisioned those last minute sequences from a strategic point of view?


Scott doesn't draw up plays in end of game. He tells the team which player to get the ball to, and maybe diagrams how he wants to get the player the ball in isolation. Once it does get there, he leaves it up to the player to figure out what to do.

So in this case, Lin gets the ball in isolation, and then decides to signal for Boozer to come set a pick for him on the high screen roll. You can see Middleton recognize this and tell Henson to switch with him so he could be the one defending the screen. Boozer comes from the left side. Lin thinks he can use the screen as a decoy and beat Knight going right, but Knight plays him perfectly, cutting him off. Boozer sees this and tries to set a screen for him going middle. But it was poorly executed as either Lin went to early or Boozer slipped to early, which left Lin matched up one on one with the long armed Middleton after the Bucks switched. You could tell Lin was in head down driving mode because he doesn't even look for Boozer on the slip. To make matters worse, Wayne had already come up to the wing as an outlet in the case Lin got trapped- but that had the effect of bringing his man up to contest Lin's drive. If he had stayed in the corner, then there might have been more room for the drive, but it also ran the risk of not having an outlet. But Lin didn't look like he was going to beat his man off the dribble anyway. In the end, Middleton was just too big for Lin to shoot the three over.

Video: http://on.nba.com/1F8p772
Movement: http://on.nba.com/1BYWUw6

It was a case of good defense beating simple offense.


Yup, got it. Good stuff. Thank you very much. It doesn't matter how many times I've seen those movement clips in the past... I still get a kick out of them!
to me, this is bad offense. first, there was only 13 sec left in the shot clock, and lin got the ball way off in the corner. second, he wasted too much time, almost 4 sec just standing there. if he was near the 3 pt line then fine, but he wans't even close. thrid, boozer came up to set a screen, lin didn't take it, with young and davis, they clogged up the strong side with no room to penetrate. fourth, ellington came way up bringing his defender up totally cut off the lanes.

what they should've done is inbounded the ball closer, cleared the right side with lin/ed pnr/screen.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:24 pm    Post subject:

Yeah, calling top isolation regardless of player or time on the clock like the Lakers have been doing doesn't exactly seem like a formula for success.
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