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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:43 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
angrypuppy wrote:
The other Miami EDGE, Greg Rousseau is likely going to drop much further than Jaelan Phillips. Poor numbers at his Pro Day. The perception was that while Rousseau was very raw, he had length and athleticism. Now it looks like he only has length. Those numbers also suggest that he may have goofed off during his year off, rather than trained hard for the combine/Pro Day like most serious NFL prospects.

Jaelan Phillips still might drop due to concussion and injury history, but now it looks like a safe bet that his team mate and EDGE predecessor is going to drop further.


Interesting, and yes, Phillips would be the first pass rusher off the board if not for his concussion history. He has everything else you could want, in terms of the measurables and production, as well as being a high-level recruit when he first got started at UCLA.

I'm seeing Caleb Farley fall out of the 1st Round entirely on some mocks. I think that may be harsh, but apparently teams are upset that he didn't get his back issue fixed well before this point. Apparently he had back surgery in 2019, of course opted out of last season, but the back issue was lingering, and in the whole year off to prepare for the NFL Draft, he didn't fix it. And now he's had to have the second back surgery, the microdiscectomy, just before the draft. He also had a torn ACL in 2017. If he slips to the late 1st, it's going to be difficult for teams like New Orleans, Green Bay, Buffalo, and maybe Tampa Bay to pass on a talent like that.



I like Caleb Farley. Good football IQ, just look at his positioning and how he reads WRs, it really shows that he's played QB. He has desireable size and traits. Two things really magnified that fall from grace: 1. The timing of the surgery just happened to coincide with the testing. 2. Closely related to point #1 is his agent, Drew Rosenhaus. Given Rosenhaus' reputation, I could see GMs not giving Farley the benefit of the doubt on anything, including the timing of the surgery. In other words, what are Farley and Rosenhaus hiding?

I think he'd be a nice gamble in the late first, particularly for Tampa Bay. Ideally Tampa Bay should try to find a hybrid EDGE who can either play with a hand in the dirt as a potential replacement for Ndamukong Suh, or upright as a potential replacement for Jason Pierre-Paul. But shades of the movie Castaway, who knows what the tide will bring? If the tide doesn't bring in that hybrid, then grab Farley and upgrade the secondary.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2021 12:10 pm    Post subject:

We're just under 3 weeks out. Here's a new mock, with a few changes from my last one.

1. Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Moving right along...

2. Jets
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
It just makes too much sense for the Jets to get their next QB.

3. 49ers
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota St.
Not buying the Mac Jones hype, at least for now.

4. Falcons
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
I had the Panthers trading up to this spot in my last mock but that was an error on my part, as Atlanta would be incredibly unlikely to trade with a division rival when a potential franchise QB is involved. And while they could trade down with another team like Denver or New England, they may choose to add Pitts to the offense and make it a nightmare for defenses.

5. Bengals
Penei Sewell, OL, Oregon
I know there's a lot of chatter about Ja'Marr Chase here, as Joe Burrow is lobbying for him. I still believe that protecting him will take precedence.

6. Dolphins
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Miami nabs the best WR in the draft after its wheeling and dealing to this pick.

7. Panthers
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio St.
TRADE! The Lions are a prime candidate to move down, especially if the board fell this way. Carolina, Denver, and New England would all be candidates to make offers. It's a game of chicken, and if Carolina wants Fields badly enough, they may have to give up something significant, even to move up the one spot. This is Detroit's best possible outcome, as it can still take whichever non-QB it was going to take at #7 anyway. I'll guess that Carolina parts with its 2nd rounder this year, #39 overall, plus a 3rd rounder next year.

8. Lions
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Still sticking with the thought that Waddle could go ahead of Smith. Detroit obviously needs a new stud WR. I wouldn't be shocked if Detroit was willing to trade down again, by the way, with Mac Jones still on the board; New England would be the obvious candidate to move up and pick before Denver would have a chance at him.

9. Broncos
Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
The anti-Lock arrives in Denver and gives a pretty strong roster a realistic shot at the playoffs.

10. Cowboys
Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama
'Bama players are just flying off the board, aren't they?

11. Giants
Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
Switching this up from Micah Parsons. Slater is seen as someone who can play tackle or guard, giving the G-Men versatility going forward. Yes, they drafted Andrew Thomas in the 1st Round last year, but the defense was a strong group a season ago. A further investment into the offense could give the team its best chance for success, and of course it will sink or swim with Daniel Jones, who is in a make-or-break year.

12. Eagles
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
The Eagles will be happy with either Alabama WR at #12, and in this case, it's Smith.

13. Chargers
Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
Some think that Horn is the best press-man corner in this class. Now that Slater isn't there, new coach Brandon Staley could see Horn as his new Jalen Ramsey, shadowing opposing WR1's.

14. Vikings
Christian Darrisaw, OL, Virginia Tech
This is a tough call for the Vikes, and I think it would come down to taking Parsons for the defense, or a hog mollie for the offense. Parsons absolutely would fill a need. But so would a tackle or guard, and for Minnesota's offense to work, Kirk Cousins needs adequate protection and Dalvin Cook needs running lanes. I'm going to side with a hog mollie, then. So now we ask, do they prefer a tackle (Darrisaw), or the best interior OL guy in Vera-Tucker? If they took Darrisaw, they could leave Ezra Cleveland at guard. If they took Vera-Tucker, then Cleveland likely has to move to tackle. I'm going to give the nod to Darrisaw.

15. Patriots
Micah Parsons, LB, Penn St.
A talented defender falls into Bill Belichick's lap here. I think Farley would make sense, but with his injury questions, I think they would, and should, take the Nittany Lion instead.

16. Cardinals
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Farley is just sitting there, so it's simply a question of how confident Arizona would be about his injury history, specifically his back. The need is obvious. Do they roll the dice? Or do they consider Vera-Tucker to strengthen the O-line, or a pass rusher? Let's roll the dice! The usual recovery time from a microdiscectomy procedure for a football player, by the way, is about 10-12 weeks, so Farley should be back in time for training camp, though I'm sure he would be brought along slowly.

17. Raiders
Jackson Carman, OL, Clemson
Sticking with Carman as a reach pick because, well, it's the Raiders!

18. Dolphins
Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami
The Dolphins stay local and take Phillips as the first pass rusher off the board.

19. Washington Football Team
Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
The draft's first safety comes off the board, and this would make sense with Landon Collins coming back from an Achilles injury.

20. Bears
Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
Vera-Tucker would help the poor O-line that Chicago has, and as a fluid athlete, he should be the type of fit for Matt Nagy's Andy Reid/West Coast offense.

21. Colts
Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
The highly-athletic Michigan man goes to Indy, who has a clear need for depth at getting after the QB.

22. Titans
Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Yes, the team signed Josh Reynolds. No, he's not a long-term solution. More help is needed.

23. Jets
Teven Jenkins, OL, Oklahoma St.
When asked what teams would be getting if they drafted him, Jenkins replied "a nasty mother..." Alrighty, then!

24. Steelers
Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Someone's probably going to take Harris in the 1st, and if it's not Miami or the Jets, Pittsburgh is a good guess.

25. Jaguars
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
Sticking with JOK as a great fit for the Jags, flying around as a chess piece.

26. Browns
Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
If Rousseau is sliding, and if Ojulari is rising, he could be the choice, as the Browns have a clear need to help out Myles Garrett.

27. Ravens
Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
The slick route-running of Moore could be much-needed in critical spots on passing downs.

28. Saints
Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
The Saints need help at LB, and Collins can get downhill and pressure the QB as well. Good fit.

29. Packers
Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern
The Packers opt to address their porous CB coverage behind Jaire Alexander.

30. Bills
Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn St.
Rousseau's slide continues, and the Bills opt for the ridiculously athletic Oweh instead.

31. Chiefs
Liam Eichenberg, OL, Notre Dame
KC has really rebuilt its O-line this offseason. Joe Thuney and Kyle Long were added at guard. Austin Blythe was brought in at center. Mike Remmers was kept after Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz were cut. Eichenberg, who is technically refined, is the type that KC likes.

32. Buccaneers
Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
Why not close out the round with the 500th Alabama player?
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:56 am    Post subject:

Nice mock. I still don't buy the Mac Jones as the SF pick, it just resonates smoke. I think they're going to take Justin Fields. Fields and Lance are polar opposites in terms of the draft. There's a lot of tape and in-person field evaluation on Fields, and he faced top talent. There's obviously less tape and far less on-field evaluation on Lance, and of course he faced a level of competition closer to the Ivy League than the Big 10. Naturally there's less to criticize with Lance, that's what makes him so intriguing.

I'm also on the fence with Wilson. He played in a vacuum against lesser talent, little on-field evaluation by scouts, not much quality tape. What I've seen doesn't knock my socks off, but then it doesn't leave me thinking his prospects are poor either. For the record, I didn't see him forced to make decisions under crazy pressure, and many of his highlights were calls off the bench. I wouldn't be surprised if he's as raw as Trey Lance.

If I had to make a guess though, sure, based on the overall record and an impressive Pro Day, Wilson will go second. I think Lance will get selected after Fields. I love Lance's traits, but it wouldn't surprise me if he carried a clip board for the better part of two seasons. If I was in SF's position of having a Super Bowl ready roster, I'd go for the more mature QB in Fields.

Someone is going to trade up with Detroit and take Trey Lance. Mac Jones will fall to the team that leap frogs New England if NE doesn't move up high enough to grab him. As much as I like Jones, I still harbor some apprehension as to whether he can rifle passes past the hash marks. He loves to throw between them, and he'll quickly find an open man and hit him with an accurate pass. But weaker armed QBs die with those sideline passes, which are high-risk pick 6s. I like Jones as a mid-first, but I realize the QB frenzy might mean he's taken top 10.

To me, it all comes down to the decisions the QB makes under pressure. We know how Lawrence, Jones, and Fields operate, and my criticism of Fields is that he must do a better job sensing pressure and make better risk/reward decisions when throwing. But Wilson and Lance you're drafting on traits and a prayer.

Parson's would be a great NE pick if they don't move up and grab a QB. The NE front seven are manned by old or marginal players. I really want them to move up.

I keep seeing Paye as a top 20, and now Oweh is being projected by some as a first round talent. Both are incredible athletes who play football, rather than football player athletes. I agree, Paye will fall outside of the top 20, and Oweh should be a second rounder, but both benefit from being in a weak draft class in terms of defensive talent, especially at the EDGE.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:16 pm    Post subject:

Darnold has been traded to the Panthers.

Good for Darnold. At least Carolina has a middling offensive line, unlike the turnstiles known as the NY Jets. I'm not sure I agree with Carolina's decision, I would have stayed with Bridgewater and swung for the fences with a new QB. As it stands, before and after the trade they're either #3 or #4 in their division within the foreseeable future.
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panamaniac
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:31 pm    Post subject:

I had the Panthers moving up on draft night with either the Bengals at 5 or the Dolphins at 6 to draft a QB. But the Darnold trade will obviously change that. I can see them picking someone like Waddle, or maybe Sewell if he were to slide a few spots.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 2:03 pm    Post subject:

Darnold to the Panthers is interesting for several reasons. It tells me that they don't think their QB target or targets are going to be there at #7, the earliest point where I think they could realistically trade up. (Cincy and Miami aren't moving down from 5 and 6, respectively.) So now we have to ask ourselves, does this mean that they think both Trey Lance and Justin Fields are going off the board at 3 and 4, and that they don't have interest in Mac Jones? Or, does it mean that the guy they really want is Jones but they think the 49ers are taking him 3rd? If it's the former, then this means the 49ers are taking Lance or Fields and that Atlanta is either taking the other QB 4th, or that Atlanta will trade down to a team coming up for a QB, and that the Panthers knew that they wouldn't be able to move up with Atlanta.

I agree that the Panthers could now be a candidate to take an offensive lineman, since their line is actually pretty poor. They could also trade down now that it seems like they are out of the QB market, although if the Bengals pass on Sewell, there's a good chance he would be available at 8, which would be an amazing value. If Mac Jones is the only top-5 QB left when Detroit is on the clock at #7, and if Carolina, Denver, and New England don't think he's worth moving up for, you have to wonder if the Lions will attempt to drum up a market for Sewell if he's there. Would the Chargers move up to 7 for him, knowing that the Panthers could take him 8th? Would the Giants move up for him?

God I love the draft!
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:47 pm    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:
Darnold has been traded to the Panthers.

Good for Darnold. At least Carolina has a middling offensive line, unlike the turnstiles known as the NY Jets. I'm not sure I agree with Carolina's decision, I would have stayed with Bridgewater and swung for the fences with a new QB. As it stands, before and after the trade they're either #3 or #4 in their division within the foreseeable future.


Love that trade for Carolina and for Darnold.

He goes to a much stronger and better run franchise and Bridgewater is a game manager and not going to lead you to the Promised Land.

If Darnold can't find success in Carolina, then it is on him. The Jets were a terrible fit (as they will be for the poor sucker they draft this year) and it was almost impossible for a QB to succeed there.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:43 pm    Post subject:

^
At least it's no longer the dreadful Adam Gase coaching staff for the Jets. Perhaps Wilson will have a chance.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:50 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
^
At least it's no longer the dreadful Adam Gase coaching staff for the Jets. Perhaps Wilson will have a chance.


I think Saleh will be a huge upgrade over Gase who looked like he was in WAY over his head as a NFL head coach.

But the Jets are a tough place to turn it around and with Buffalo, an improving Miami and a hungry New England in the same division. I am not bullish on them at all for the upcoming season.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:00 pm    Post subject:

^
Oh, for sure. They are going to finish last in the division. But if you hit on Wilson, you can get the thing moving in the right direction. Despite New England's spending spree, it's still going to be a poor offense unless they can find a long-term answer at QB. I like Miami but if Tua doesn't live up to his promise, they are still short a QB. Buffalo though, I agree, they are set up for a long time with a franchise QB and a coach that knows defense. They do need to come up with a better pass rush and find a reliable second corner behind White, but they look like a perennial contender to me.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:47 pm    Post subject:

I’m starting to think there’s a fair chance picks 1-4 will be QBs.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:53 pm    Post subject:

panamaniac wrote:
I’m starting to think there’s a fair chance picks 1-4 will be QBs.


Quite possible, yes. Especially if Atlanta trades down.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:03 am    Post subject:

I found another reason to dislike Greg Rousseau. Take a long look at his highlights from that amazing 2019 season, where he almost led the nation in sacks. Notice something funny? He's lined up as a DT/NT, not as an EDGE. Some of his plays are elaborate stunts, where instead of penetrating the A gap (C/G), he opts for B gap or even C, leaving the opposing center clueless on who to block. He shifts into high gear through either B or C to get to the backfield.

Why's that bad? EDGE players have to refine their game for initial moves (like the swim move) and later, counter-moves. Greg Rousseau doesn't show either, so as an EDGE he's as raw as sushi. The stunting that he does in college is just that, college level play that is far less likely against better prepared, more athletic offensive linemen in the NFL. Now when you factor in the disappointing athleticism numbers from the Pro Day, what are you left with? A mid to late second rounder who looks like a raw, scheme-specific DE on a 4 man front.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:26 pm    Post subject:

^
Yeah, that's why I have him sliding to the 2nd. I think it's possible he still goes in the 1st, but I'm with you. The Pro Day was a major issue because if you opted out, ostensibly you should have been prepping for the draft, working on drills, etc. So to come out and be lackluster, that's going to be a big issue for many teams.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:29 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
panamaniac wrote:
I’m starting to think there’s a fair chance picks 1-4 will be QBs.


Quite possible, yes. Especially if Atlanta trades down.


Atlanta has had a number of suitors for the #4 pick. If they do keep it, I think it’s because they like a QB. Otherwise just trade down and get your haul. Or maybe they really, really like Kyle Pitts.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:33 pm    Post subject:

Michael Lombardi said on a podcast that he knows -- not thinks, but knows -- that Washington is enamored with Trey Lance, and might offer a whole boatload of picks to move up. They do have an extra 3rd Round pick from the 49ers (from the Trent Williams trade last year), so I wonder if they could offer Atlanta something like #19, a 2022 1st, a 2022 2nd, and a 3rd rounder this year. If I had to guess, Atlanta, if it moves down, would probably prefer to deal with Detroit or Denver, so they'd only move down to 7 or 9. It's going to be really interesting to see what happens with SF at 3. If they actually take Jones, the higher-upside QB's (Lance and Fields) will still be there, and you could conceivably see Detroit, Denver, New England, and Washington trying to move up. I guess you can't even rule out Carolina, even though getting Darnold probably lowers their odds.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:57 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Michael Lombardi said on a podcast that he knows -- not thinks, but knows -- that Washington is enamored with Trey Lance, and might offer a whole boatload of picks to move up. They do have an extra 3rd Round pick from the 49ers (from the Trent Williams trade last year), so I wonder if they could offer Atlanta something like #19, a 2022 1st, a 2022 2nd, and a 3rd rounder this year. If I had to guess, Atlanta, if it moves down, would probably prefer to deal with Detroit or Denver, so they'd only move down to 7 or 9. It's going to be really interesting to see what happens with SF at 3. If they actually take Jones, the higher-upside QB's (Lance and Fields) will still be there, and you could conceivably see Detroit, Denver, New England, and Washington trying to move up. I guess you can't even rule out Carolina, even though getting Darnold probably lowers their odds.



Lance is a gamble: Highest ceiling, lowest floor. If I was a GM, I'd do my best to move up and grab him. He will not be ready next season, and in fact he might not even start for part of season two, but delayed gratification could pay big here.
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