Defending Champs 2021 LA Dodgers Thread
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4stargeneralbulldog
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:53 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
4stargeneralbulldog wrote:
Just took a look at Arenado splits. He's a career .263 hitter away from Coors Field. Eh, that's a hard no from me, he also had a .227 Batting average away from Coors this year, it might be a small sample size this season, but I'm worried when taking a look at that. He also has 6 years left on that enormous contract. Also, the Dodgers consistently have 1 of the best farm system, the Rockies would want our best prospects and more than likely young guys that have made it to the majors like May, Gonsolin, Lux, etc.

When you assess everything, the trade isn't worth it.


Yeah I don’t like his splits either.


Arenado's career batting average at Coors Field is .322 and .263 away. That's almost a 60 point differential! Compared that to say Mike Trout, the best player of his generation, you know what's the difference? Trout bats a lifetime average of .302 at Angel stadium compared to .306 away, only a 4 point difference, Trout has a better bat at away games! A 60 point differential is too extreme, also his AAV is 32.5 million, he will automatically be our highest paid player, even more than Betts. If the Dodgers is paying a guy 32.5 million per year, they should expect more than just gold glove defense, that .263 batting average away from Coors isn't worth it, btw, his batting average at Dodgers Stadium is .251.

Justin Turner's career stats home and away? At home it's .291 and .293 for away games. At Dodgers stadium it's .298. At Coors Fields JT bats a whopping .356!
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 21, 2020 7:53 pm    Post subject:

4stargeneralbulldog wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
4stargeneralbulldog wrote:
Just took a look at Arenado splits. He's a career .263 hitter away from Coors Field. Eh, that's a hard no from me, he also had a .227 Batting average away from Coors this year, it might be a small sample size this season, but I'm worried when taking a look at that. He also has 6 years left on that enormous contract. Also, the Dodgers consistently have 1 of the best farm system, the Rockies would want our best prospects and more than likely young guys that have made it to the majors like May, Gonsolin, Lux, etc.

When you assess everything, the trade isn't worth it.


Yeah I don’t like his splits either.


Arenado's career batting average at Coors Field is .322 and .263 away. That's almost a 60 point differential! Compared that to say Mike Trout, the best player of his generation, you know what's the difference? Trout bats a lifetime average of .302 at Angel stadium compared to .306 away, only a 4 point difference, Trout has a better bat at away games! A 60 point differential is too extreme, also his AAV is 32.5 million, he will automatically be our highest paid player, even more than Betts. If the Dodgers is paying a guy 32.5 million per year, they should expect more than just gold glove defense, that .263 batting average away from Coors isn't worth it, btw, his batting average at Dodgers Stadium is .251.

Justin Turner's career stats home and away? At home it's .291 and .293 for away games. At Dodgers stadium it's .298. At Coors Fields JT bats a whopping .356!


I'm not saying there aren't reasons to question a potential Arenado deal, but batting average is overrated. Muncy doesn't hit for a high average. Joc didn't hit for a high average, even in his good years. If he hit for power and got on base and played Platinum Glove defense, he's very valuable. Now, is he $32.5MM a year valuable? Very fair question, especially for 6 years, and especially if it may cost you the ability to retain Seager and/or others.

But it's worth pointing out that they may feel like with Boras seeking absolute top dollar for Seager, that's it's just not worth paying him, say, $200-250MM. They know his medicals as well as anyone and they may simply feel like it's a bad bet.

As for what it will cost to acquire him, it may not be nearly as much as you might think. Colorado is in a bad spot here. Since the entire world knows that he would opt out of his deal after this coming season, they have to market him as an expiring contract. Compounding matters for them is that Arenado has a full no-trade clause...meaning that he can say no to any other destination except the Dodgers. He can essentially force his way here if he wants to. If the Rockies refused to trade him here, all they would get after the '21 season is one compensatory draft pick. We aren't going to have to give them May, no chance. All we really have to do is offer them more value than the compensatory draft pick, in my estimation. I think something like Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray is enough to get it done. With Will Smith in the fold, Ruiz is somewhat expendable.
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 21, 2020 8:21 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
All we really have to do is offer them more value than the compensatory draft pick, in my estimation. I think something like Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray is enough to get it done. With Will Smith in the fold, Ruiz is somewhat expendable.


I think we also have to compensate them for losing 1 year of service time from Arenado (2021 season), whatever that’s worth to them.

We paid alot for 1 year of Betts. Cleveland is asking for alot for 1 year of Lindor right now.

We gave up 5 prospects for 2 months of Manny Machado.

So, they’ll want value equal to the compensatory pick plus whatever 1 year of Arenado is worth.
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4stargeneralbulldog
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:00 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
4stargeneralbulldog wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
4stargeneralbulldog wrote:
Just took a look at Arenado splits. He's a career .263 hitter away from Coors Field. Eh, that's a hard no from me, he also had a .227 Batting average away from Coors this year, it might be a small sample size this season, but I'm worried when taking a look at that. He also has 6 years left on that enormous contract. Also, the Dodgers consistently have 1 of the best farm system, the Rockies would want our best prospects and more than likely young guys that have made it to the majors like May, Gonsolin, Lux, etc.

When you assess everything, the trade isn't worth it.


Yeah I don’t like his splits either.


Arenado's career batting average at Coors Field is .322 and .263 away. That's almost a 60 point differential! Compared that to say Mike Trout, the best player of his generation, you know what's the difference? Trout bats a lifetime average of .302 at Angel stadium compared to .306 away, only a 4 point difference, Trout has a better bat at away games! A 60 point differential is too extreme, also his AAV is 32.5 million, he will automatically be our highest paid player, even more than Betts. If the Dodgers is paying a guy 32.5 million per year, they should expect more than just gold glove defense, that .263 batting average away from Coors isn't worth it, btw, his batting average at Dodgers Stadium is .251.

Justin Turner's career stats home and away? At home it's .291 and .293 for away games. At Dodgers stadium it's .298. At Coors Fields JT bats a whopping .356!


I'm not saying there aren't reasons to question a potential Arenado deal, but batting average is overrated. Muncy doesn't hit for a high average. Joc didn't hit for a high average, even in his good years. If he hit for power and got on base and played Platinum Glove defense, he's very valuable. Now, is he $32.5MM a year valuable? Very fair question, especially for 6 years, and especially if it may cost you the ability to retain Seager and/or others.

But it's worth pointing out that they may feel like with Boras seeking absolute top dollar for Seager, that's it's just not worth paying him, say, $200-250MM. They know his medicals as well as anyone and they may simply feel like it's a bad bet.

As for what it will cost to acquire him, it may not be nearly as much as you might think. Colorado is in a bad spot here. Since the entire world knows that he would opt out of his deal after this coming season, they have to market him as an expiring contract. Compounding matters for them is that Arenado has a full no-trade clause...meaning that he can say no to any other destination except the Dodgers. He can essentially force his way here if he wants to. If the Rockies refused to trade him here, all they would get after the '21 season is one compensatory draft pick. We aren't going to have to give them May, no chance. All we really have to do is offer them more value than the compensatory draft pick, in my estimation. I think something like Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray is enough to get it done. With Will Smith in the fold, Ruiz is somewhat expendable.


It's not just Batting average that's down for Arenado when he plays away games, it's OBP, Slugging %, OPS, etc. His offensive numbers are night and day when he plays at and away from Coors Field. He will be the highest paid player on the Dodgers if there is a trade. Multiple questions will be asked if he is traded. Is he worth 32.5 million for putting up pedestrian to mediocre numbers away from Coors Field? Is he worth not being able to sign multiple core guys that are very good on the Dodgers that helped bring a title after 32 years? Because that will certainly happen with this trade. Is he worth losing top Dodgers prospects and possibly 1 or more of the young guys like May, Lux, Gonsolin, White, etc? A very good chance that will happen.

Lastly, if a guy is being paid close to Mike Trout money, Dodgers fans will expect him to perform all around close to Mike Trout, the splits on the away games says he will not perform on that level at least offensively. Mookie Betts performed at that level for the dodgers this past season, brilliant offensive and defensive play.

When you factor everything in, this is a bad deal for the Dodgers.
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 21, 2020 10:40 pm    Post subject:

^
It would all depend on if he's the next Vinny Castilla (as a hitter), or perhaps the next Larry Walker, who can still be good away from Coors Field. Do I think he'd continue to be a .300 hitter with 40+ homers and 120+ RBI? Probably not. But the Dodgers do value defense, and there is a case to be made that Arenado is the best third baseman who has ever lived.

I share your concern, or anyone's concern, about acquiring him. The splits are clearly worrisome; even if I don't care about batting average, you're right that his numbers drop across the board. But if you could get him for a surprisingly low return, it might be worth it.
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 5:42 am    Post subject:

Quote:
Arenado's bat after Coors? No need to worry

Nolan Arenado is still on the trade block, if you believe the latest rumors, and even if you don't, it's clear that his frosty relationship with the team and its relatively weak outlook for the immediate future has made a dissolution of their partnership seem imminent for some time.

It's a complicated scenario, between his remaining contract ($199 million through 2027), his ability to opt out (after 2021), his full no-trade clause, the shoulder injury that marred his 2020 offensive performance, what the Rockies may require in return and the external factors of pandemic economics and the looming expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, one year from now. It might be enough to prevent any move from actually happening.

All of that is a lot more than we can unravel today, so let's get to something a lot simpler, something that seems to come up every time we talk about the possible departure of a Rockies hitting star: No, he's not good simply because he plays in Coors Field.

You would have thought that the recent experience of DJ LeMahieu would have put an end to this, but apparently not. LeMahieu, you might remember, had regularly large home/road splits as a Rockie, culminating in a 2018 where he hit .317/.360/.433 at home, but a mere .229/.277/.422 on the road. That left so many worrying that his mediocre road line was "who he really was." LeMahieu, of course, went to the Yankees and hit .336/.386/.536 across two years, collecting MVP votes in each season. Not a product of Coors, right?

What happened? We first wrote about this back in 2015, though some of the images are now missing from that older piece, and again regarding LeMahieu on the day he signed two years ago.

Coors Field helps you hit at home, but it comes with you on the road, negatively. Being a Rockie can make you a worse hitter in other parks.

Why is that? And what does it mean for Arenado, or more importantly, for teams interested in trading for him?

Wait, Coors Field does what?

It's counterintuitive, at first: How could your home park in Denver affect what you do in San Diego or Philadelphia or Miami? Part of it is simply the difficulty in adjusting from high altitude to sea level and what that does in terms of recovery. But it's largely about the way pitches move differently at Coors compared to how they do on the road, how opposing pitchers change their game to adapt and how hard it is to change your hitting approach between the two.

For example, people tend to think that what Coors does is create homers. It doesn't, really; it's mostly that the outfield is so large that it's impossible to cover, and lets a ton of extra balls drop in. But all of that only matters if contact is made in the first place, and Coors has a lot to say about that, too. At home, over the last two seasons, Rockies hitters have had the eighth-lowest strikeout rate (21.2%) ... and the third-highest road rate (26.7%). It's easier to make contact at home and it's harder for them to make contact on the road.



Quote:
A great example here is Matt Holliday, who played for the Rockies from 2004-08, then was sent from Oakland to St. Louis midway through 2009, where he remained until 2016. We'll skip the brief stints with the A's and Yankees, as well as his 2018 return to the Rockies.

Holliday, home OPS w/ Rockies: 1.068
Holliday, home OPS w/ Cardinals: .895

His home performance away from Coors got worse. Just like you'd expect, right? Now about the road ...

Holliday, road OPS w/ Rockies: .803
Holliday, road OPS w/ Cardinals: .853

... which got better. After he left the Rockies, he became a better road hitter. This is what happens, at least for players who still have enough of their prime remaining when they leave the Rockies. Arenado won't turn 30 until April, so he still has plenty of time to succeed.


Quote:
Just look at how consistently better at home longtime catcher Chris Iannetta was in the last few years of his first stint with the Rockies, then how consistently better on the road he was as he traveled through three other organizations, then how he again hit better at home in a return visit to the Rockies alongside Holliday in 2018.

Road OPS w COL: .686
Road OPS w others: .793



Quote:
The point here is not that Arenado will maintain that home performance if and when he leaves -- it's that the road performance would be likely to improve to help compensate somewhat.


https://www.mlb.com/news/nolan-arenado-coors-field-effect-analysis




I’ve always thought this was true. It must be hard for hitters (and pitchers) to constantly adjust every 7-9 days.
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:51 am    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
Quote:
Arenado's bat after Coors? No need to worry

Nolan Arenado is still on the trade block, if you believe the latest rumors, and even if you don't, it's clear that his frosty relationship with the team and its relatively weak outlook for the immediate future has made a dissolution of their partnership seem imminent for some time.

It's a complicated scenario, between his remaining contract ($199 million through 2027), his ability to opt out (after 2021), his full no-trade clause, the shoulder injury that marred his 2020 offensive performance, what the Rockies may require in return and the external factors of pandemic economics and the looming expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, one year from now. It might be enough to prevent any move from actually happening.

All of that is a lot more than we can unravel today, so let's get to something a lot simpler, something that seems to come up every time we talk about the possible departure of a Rockies hitting star: No, he's not good simply because he plays in Coors Field.

You would have thought that the recent experience of DJ LeMahieu would have put an end to this, but apparently not. LeMahieu, you might remember, had regularly large home/road splits as a Rockie, culminating in a 2018 where he hit .317/.360/.433 at home, but a mere .229/.277/.422 on the road. That left so many worrying that his mediocre road line was "who he really was." LeMahieu, of course, went to the Yankees and hit .336/.386/.536 across two years, collecting MVP votes in each season. Not a product of Coors, right?

What happened? We first wrote about this back in 2015, though some of the images are now missing from that older piece, and again regarding LeMahieu on the day he signed two years ago.

Coors Field helps you hit at home, but it comes with you on the road, negatively. Being a Rockie can make you a worse hitter in other parks.

Why is that? And what does it mean for Arenado, or more importantly, for teams interested in trading for him?

Wait, Coors Field does what?

It's counterintuitive, at first: How could your home park in Denver affect what you do in San Diego or Philadelphia or Miami? Part of it is simply the difficulty in adjusting from high altitude to sea level and what that does in terms of recovery. But it's largely about the way pitches move differently at Coors compared to how they do on the road, how opposing pitchers change their game to adapt and how hard it is to change your hitting approach between the two.

For example, people tend to think that what Coors does is create homers. It doesn't, really; it's mostly that the outfield is so large that it's impossible to cover, and lets a ton of extra balls drop in. But all of that only matters if contact is made in the first place, and Coors has a lot to say about that, too. At home, over the last two seasons, Rockies hitters have had the eighth-lowest strikeout rate (21.2%) ... and the third-highest road rate (26.7%). It's easier to make contact at home and it's harder for them to make contact on the road.



Quote:
A great example here is Matt Holliday, who played for the Rockies from 2004-08, then was sent from Oakland to St. Louis midway through 2009, where he remained until 2016. We'll skip the brief stints with the A's and Yankees, as well as his 2018 return to the Rockies.

Holliday, home OPS w/ Rockies: 1.068
Holliday, home OPS w/ Cardinals: .895

His home performance away from Coors got worse. Just like you'd expect, right? Now about the road ...

Holliday, road OPS w/ Rockies: .803
Holliday, road OPS w/ Cardinals: .853

... which got better. After he left the Rockies, he became a better road hitter. This is what happens, at least for players who still have enough of their prime remaining when they leave the Rockies. Arenado won't turn 30 until April, so he still has plenty of time to succeed.


Quote:
Just look at how consistently better at home longtime catcher Chris Iannetta was in the last few years of his first stint with the Rockies, then how consistently better on the road he was as he traveled through three other organizations, then how he again hit better at home in a return visit to the Rockies alongside Holliday in 2018.

Road OPS w COL: .686
Road OPS w others: .793



Quote:
The point here is not that Arenado will maintain that home performance if and when he leaves -- it's that the road performance would be likely to improve to help compensate somewhat.


https://www.mlb.com/news/nolan-arenado-coors-field-effect-analysis




I’ve always thought this was true. It must be hard for hitters (and pitchers) to constantly adjust every 7-9 days.


The fact that the field was so large helping hitters that completely helped them at Coors and destroyed them elsewhere actually fits Eric Young to a tee. His all star year of 1996, you guys should check his splits. The difference is insane. Total Batting average 0.324. At Coors: 0.412 BA with 0.473 OBP. On the Road: 0.219 BA with 0.298 OBP. When EY got traded here, he did fine with the bat even if he didnt hit like he did as a Rockie. That 0.315-0.320 BA became 0.285-0.295 for the rest of his career so he did fine hitting on the road.
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:13 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
Quote:
Arenado's bat after Coors? No need to worry

Nolan Arenado is still on the trade block, if you believe the latest rumors, and even if you don't, it's clear that his frosty relationship with the team and its relatively weak outlook for the immediate future has made a dissolution of their partnership seem imminent for some time.

It's a complicated scenario, between his remaining contract ($199 million through 2027), his ability to opt out (after 2021), his full no-trade clause, the shoulder injury that marred his 2020 offensive performance, what the Rockies may require in return and the external factors of pandemic economics and the looming expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, one year from now. It might be enough to prevent any move from actually happening.

All of that is a lot more than we can unravel today, so let's get to something a lot simpler, something that seems to come up every time we talk about the possible departure of a Rockies hitting star: No, he's not good simply because he plays in Coors Field.

You would have thought that the recent experience of DJ LeMahieu would have put an end to this, but apparently not. LeMahieu, you might remember, had regularly large home/road splits as a Rockie, culminating in a 2018 where he hit .317/.360/.433 at home, but a mere .229/.277/.422 on the road. That left so many worrying that his mediocre road line was "who he really was." LeMahieu, of course, went to the Yankees and hit .336/.386/.536 across two years, collecting MVP votes in each season. Not a product of Coors, right?

What happened? We first wrote about this back in 2015, though some of the images are now missing from that older piece, and again regarding LeMahieu on the day he signed two years ago.

Coors Field helps you hit at home, but it comes with you on the road, negatively. Being a Rockie can make you a worse hitter in other parks.

Why is that? And what does it mean for Arenado, or more importantly, for teams interested in trading for him?

Wait, Coors Field does what?

It's counterintuitive, at first: How could your home park in Denver affect what you do in San Diego or Philadelphia or Miami? Part of it is simply the difficulty in adjusting from high altitude to sea level and what that does in terms of recovery. But it's largely about the way pitches move differently at Coors compared to how they do on the road, how opposing pitchers change their game to adapt and how hard it is to change your hitting approach between the two.

For example, people tend to think that what Coors does is create homers. It doesn't, really; it's mostly that the outfield is so large that it's impossible to cover, and lets a ton of extra balls drop in. But all of that only matters if contact is made in the first place, and Coors has a lot to say about that, too. At home, over the last two seasons, Rockies hitters have had the eighth-lowest strikeout rate (21.2%) ... and the third-highest road rate (26.7%). It's easier to make contact at home and it's harder for them to make contact on the road.



Quote:
A great example here is Matt Holliday, who played for the Rockies from 2004-08, then was sent from Oakland to St. Louis midway through 2009, where he remained until 2016. We'll skip the brief stints with the A's and Yankees, as well as his 2018 return to the Rockies.

Holliday, home OPS w/ Rockies: 1.068
Holliday, home OPS w/ Cardinals: .895

His home performance away from Coors got worse. Just like you'd expect, right? Now about the road ...

Holliday, road OPS w/ Rockies: .803
Holliday, road OPS w/ Cardinals: .853

... which got better. After he left the Rockies, he became a better road hitter. This is what happens, at least for players who still have enough of their prime remaining when they leave the Rockies. Arenado won't turn 30 until April, so he still has plenty of time to succeed.


Quote:
Just look at how consistently better at home longtime catcher Chris Iannetta was in the last few years of his first stint with the Rockies, then how consistently better on the road he was as he traveled through three other organizations, then how he again hit better at home in a return visit to the Rockies alongside Holliday in 2018.

Road OPS w COL: .686
Road OPS w others: .793



Quote:
The point here is not that Arenado will maintain that home performance if and when he leaves -- it's that the road performance would be likely to improve to help compensate somewhat.


https://www.mlb.com/news/nolan-arenado-coors-field-effect-analysis




I’ve always thought this was true. It must be hard for hitters (and pitchers) to constantly adjust every 7-9 days.


Thanks for posting this. I was going to post something about DJ and Holliday, but you beat me too it. Coors makes it harder for the hitters to hit on the road, it’s undeniable.

We’d be extremely lucky to trade for Arenado.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:37 am    Post subject:

Ok I don't know where to put this but this thread seems appropriate. Definitely NSFW but funny as (bleep).

https://youtu.be/SAGWFNsmGc4

Oops forgot the link....
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:11 pm    Post subject:

OK, we need to get on this. He's signed cheaply through 2023, so we'd have him for the next 3 seasons. Would rather have him than Arenado, without question. I'd give up May and Lux for him. A rotation of Kershaw/Buehler/Snell/Price/Urias is just flat-out disgusting.

https://www.mlb.com/news/blake-snell-trade-scenario-rays

The article mentions the Braves and Angels as possible suitors, and Snell's hometown Mariners. The Angels would have to surely give up Adell (who had a poor first taste of the majors, not that it means he'll be a bust) and other top prospects and it would clean out their farm system pretty good. That said, you're either trying to win with Mike Trout or you aren't.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:07 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
OK, we need to get on this. He's signed cheaply through 2023, so we'd have him for the next 3 seasons. Would rather have him than Arenado, without question. I'd give up May and Lux for him. A rotation of Kershaw/Buehler/Snell/Price/Urias is just flat-out disgusting.

https://www.mlb.com/news/blake-snell-trade-scenario-rays

The article mentions the Braves and Angels as possible suitors, and Snell's hometown Mariners. The Angels would have to surely give up Adell (who had a poor first taste of the majors, not that it means he'll be a bust) and other top prospects and it would clean out their farm system pretty good. That said, you're either trying to win with Mike Trout or you aren't.


We all know that Friedman loves trading with Tampa

That said, I'm, personally, reluctant to trade May as his stuff is so filthy and he's only going to get better.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:08 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
OK, we need to get on this. He's signed cheaply through 2023, so we'd have him for the next 3 seasons. Would rather have him than Arenado, without question. I'd give up May and Lux for him. A rotation of Kershaw/Buehler/Snell/Price/Urias is just flat-out disgusting.

https://www.mlb.com/news/blake-snell-trade-scenario-rays

The article mentions the Braves and Angels as possible suitors, and Snell's hometown Mariners. The Angels would have to surely give up Adell (who had a poor first taste of the majors, not that it means he'll be a bust) and other top prospects and it would clean out their farm system pretty good. That said, you're either trying to win with Mike Trout or you aren't.


Oh wow! You absolutely jump on this! An ace pitcher that's in his prime and on a pretty cheap contract? We have the prospects and the young guys that the Rays would want. Now this is the kind of trade you make!
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:44 pm    Post subject:

Would we use Snell like Tampa Bay does? They were so reluctant to let him face a batting order a 3rd time through.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:04 pm    Post subject:

Was coming here to post about Snell. Like how all of our minds went to the same place, hahaha
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:53 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
Would we use Snell like Tampa Bay does? They were so reluctant to let him face a batting order a 3rd time through.


I don't think we would have as quick of a hook, I'll tell you that. I don't even think that Roberts, as weird as some of his decisions have been, would have dared take out an ace pitcher when he's at 73 pitches.

I'm sure we would be careful with him in the regular season. We rarely let Buehler throw over 100 pitches, for example, especially in the regular season. But I don't think we would see him as a 5-inning pitcher, like how we used to use Wood or even guys like May this year.

He's a legit ace. He's one of the best pitchers in the game. His contract is insanely affordable. We certainly have what they would want. There's a match here, on paper, for something to happen. It would be chess from Friedman to have leaked all month the Arenado stuff, if we're actually in on Snell.

And to respond to something earlier, yes, May is highly, highly valuable. And has 5 years of control left. But as of now, he's basically got 2 variations of one great pitch, the two-seamer and the four-seamer. Snell has a good fastball, a devastating slider, and also throws a good curveball and changeup. He just has so much more to offer a hitter. May's breaking stuff isn't very good right now. Of course, that could change. It absolutely could. However, considering how good Snell is and considering that he's only earning a total of $39MM over the next 3 years, he has a ton more value than May does IMO. It's 3 years of a true ace at a massive discount. I'm thinking May would have to be involved, and perhaps Lux too, that or a couple more of our really good prospects. Tampa Bay would get payroll savings and 10 years of team control on the two guys if it were May and Lux, with both having major potential. I would actually prefer dealing those two, as opposed to like 5 or 6 really good prospects. Having more good prospects to go around makes for better flexibility. If we offer that package, there's nothing the Angels can do, for example, even if they offer Adell. Would the Braves be willing to give up, say, their best pitching prospect and Riley? The Mariners have a strong system, but do they have anything that would trump that offer?
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:42 pm    Post subject:

How many uber contracts do you think this front office is willing to bear? We still have to figure out the $ for Buehler/Bellinger/Seager as well right? No way we can have it all can we? Please say yes.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:31 pm    Post subject:

jonnybravo wrote:
How many uber contracts do you think this front office is willing to bear? We still have to figure out the $ for Buehler/Bellinger/Seager as well right? No way we can have it all can we? Please say yes.


The Snell contract is cheap. He signed a 5 year $50 million contract after the 2018 season, he has 3 years left. The Rays of course, would want a massive bounty for an Ace pitcher that's in his prime and is relatively cheap.

IF the reports are true, you get Snell. He offers payroll flexibility to sign guys like Seager, Belli, Urias, Buehler, in the future, plus his ace level talent.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:10 am    Post subject:

4stargeneralbulldog wrote:
IF the reports are true, you get Snell. He offers payroll flexibility to sign guys like Seager, Belli, Urias, Buehler, in the future, plus his ace level talent.


He’ll only offer payroll flexibility for Seager.

Bellinger, Urias, Buehler all have 3 or more years of control left. They’ll be hitting free agency the same time as Snell.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:17 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
Would we use Snell like Tampa Bay does? They were so reluctant to let him face a batting order a 3rd time through.


I don't think we would have as quick of a hook, I'll tell you that. I don't even think that Roberts, as weird as some of his decisions have been, would have dared take out an ace pitcher when he's at 73 pitches.

I'm sure we would be careful with him in the regular season. We rarely let Buehler throw over 100 pitches, for example, especially in the regular season. But I don't think we would see him as a 5-inning pitcher, like how we used to use Wood or even guys like May this year.


It’s interesting because we’re both analytically driven teams.

Tampa Bay’s analytics tells them that the best way to win with Snell is to not let him face the lineup a 3rd time. They did that all year and it got them to the WS.

Our analytics would tell us something different?

It’s interesting cuz we’d be looking at the same numbers.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:28 am    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
Would we use Snell like Tampa Bay does? They were so reluctant to let him face a batting order a 3rd time through.


I don't think we would have as quick of a hook, I'll tell you that. I don't even think that Roberts, as weird as some of his decisions have been, would have dared take out an ace pitcher when he's at 73 pitches.

I'm sure we would be careful with him in the regular season. We rarely let Buehler throw over 100 pitches, for example, especially in the regular season. But I don't think we would see him as a 5-inning pitcher, like how we used to use Wood or even guys like May this year.


It’s interesting because we’re both analytically driven teams.

Tampa Bay’s analytics tells them that the best way to win with Snell is to not let him face the lineup a 3rd time. They did that all year and it got them to the WS.

Our analytics would tell us something different?

It’s interesting cuz we’d be looking at the same numbers.


Well good analytics should take into account when a guy is absolutely dealing vs looking at a guy's entire season. Then to replace him with Anderson whose regular season numbers contrasted greatly from performances recently? Give me the analytics of a guy is absolutely lights out going through the order 3rd time through vs putting in a good reliever who has been getting smacked repeatedly in recent times.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:41 am    Post subject:

1995Lakers wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
Would we use Snell like Tampa Bay does? They were so reluctant to let him face a batting order a 3rd time through.


I don't think we would have as quick of a hook, I'll tell you that. I don't even think that Roberts, as weird as some of his decisions have been, would have dared take out an ace pitcher when he's at 73 pitches.

I'm sure we would be careful with him in the regular season. We rarely let Buehler throw over 100 pitches, for example, especially in the regular season. But I don't think we would see him as a 5-inning pitcher, like how we used to use Wood or even guys like May this year.


It’s interesting because we’re both analytically driven teams.

Tampa Bay’s analytics tells them that the best way to win with Snell is to not let him face the lineup a 3rd time. They did that all year and it got them to the WS.

Our analytics would tell us something different?

It’s interesting cuz we’d be looking at the same numbers.


Well good analytics should take into account when a guy is absolutely dealing vs looking at a guy's entire season. Then to replace him with Anderson whose regular season numbers contrasted greatly from performances recently? Give me the analytics of a guy is absolutely lights out going through the order 3rd time through vs putting in a good reliever who has been getting smacked repeatedly in recent times.


I’m not talking 1 game. I’m talking the entire season or even more. This is how they use him. That was their game plan all season.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:01 pm    Post subject:

Looks like we’re going to take an L for the 2017 draft. This might be the first bad draft for Andrew Friedman

We left our 1st and 2nd rd picks unprotected for the Rule 5 draft:

1-23 - Jaren Kendall
2-62 - Morgan Cooper

Other notable names from that draft:

3-100 - Connor Wong (traded for Mookie Betts)
11-340 - Jacob Amaya (our 10th ranked prospect)


That’s basically it.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:08 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
4stargeneralbulldog wrote:
IF the reports are true, you get Snell. He offers payroll flexibility to sign guys like Seager, Belli, Urias, Buehler, in the future, plus his ace level talent.


He’ll only offer payroll flexibility for Seager.

Bellinger, Urias, Buehler all have 3 or more years of control left. They’ll be hitting free agency the same time as Snell.


So we're good for 3 years? Good (bleep) man.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:44 pm    Post subject:

In looking at some message boards, a lot of people seem to think that Snell is overrated, and they cite the following as proof of this:

--Has only thrown over 180 innings once in his career. (So has Buehler.)

--His Cy Young season of 2018 was a fluke

--Had a 4.29 ERA in '19

--Had a 4.35 FIP this past season, despite a good 3.24 ERA

--Gets his pitch count up because he's always trying to strike hitters out

--His 1.237 career WHIP is hardly elite

I think about it like this: I've seen what he can do in the postseason, and I believe his arsenal is perfectly set up for that. There might be years where he has an ERA below 3 in the regular season, and there might be a year where it is closer to 4 (I think '18, the CYA year, was an outlier, but so was '19). Since our team is an embarrassment of riches, let's be honest, there's a huge emphasis on postseason for this team. So why not pick up a starter who has shown an ability to silence the bats of the league's best hitters when it matters most?

Again, at his price, I would be trying hard for this guy. And maybe May and Lux both wouldn't be required. Maybe it could even be something like Ruiz and Lux, or Ruiz and Gray and a little more, who knows. I just know I would have serious interest. Friedman was in charge in Tampa when Snell was drafted in 2011.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 12:07 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
In looking at some message boards, a lot of people seem to think that Snell is overrated, and they cite the following as proof of this:

--Has only thrown over 180 innings once in his career. (So has Buehler.)

--His Cy Young season of 2018 was a fluke

--Had a 4.29 ERA in '19

--Had a 4.35 FIP this past season, despite a good 3.24 ERA

--Gets his pitch count up because he's always trying to strike hitters out

--His 1.237 career WHIP is hardly elite

I think about it like this: I've seen what he can do in the postseason, and I believe his arsenal is perfectly set up for that. There might be years where he has an ERA below 3 in the regular season, and there might be a year where it is closer to 4 (I think '18, the CYA year, was an outlier, but so was '19). Since our team is an embarrassment of riches, let's be honest, there's a huge emphasis on postseason for this team. So why not pick up a starter who has shown an ability to silence the bats of the league's best hitters when it matters most?

Again, at his price, I would be trying hard for this guy. And maybe May and Lux both wouldn't be required. Maybe it could even be something like Ruiz and Lux, or Ruiz and Gray and a little more, who knows. I just know I would have serious interest. Friedman was in charge in Tampa when Snell was drafted in 2011.


At his price with his arsenal of pitches and talent, yea I dont expect him to look like he did against us in game 6 every playoff outing but enough to consistently go 5 or 6 at 1-3 runs given up....I will take that and he is certainly good enough to do that.
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