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Mike@LG
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:13 am    Post subject:

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The triangle also gummed up spacing and would get blown off the floor offensively today by dint of shot selection alone.


Illegal defense rule changes were made and made the triangle ineffective.

But with more teams looking for 4-out and 5-out spacing, it's still possible.
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:03 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
My issue is with the team in the top 10 that drafts one of the oldest players available with one decent year of shooting on his resume who has physical limitations on defense that will be hard to overcome, especially for a prospect who didn't display much interest on that end.


Yep. It does get to a point in the draft where you know who Toppin is and ask yourself, do I take a middling swing or guard over him?


No. I don't mind a one (possibly two) trick specialist. Obi can become a professional scorer while providing at minimum adequate defense, rim protection and passing.

That's his peak outcome on defense, imo.


I guess I am the glass is half full type of person.

If the player has the desire and puts the work in I always believe with proper training and experience they will improve. See transformation of Kuzma.

Yes there may be limitations on how much a given player improves based on their athleticism and physical attributes but I never cap a players level of improvement until after 3-4 years in the league.
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 29, 2020 2:07 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:

I agree on impact but in a lot of instances it is a result of ball dominance and does not indicate their true value to a team.

In the case of Kobe the triangle, reliance on Shaq and Kobe's iso skills did not require an actual true play maker on those Laker teams.

The current dominant teams (Lakers, Bucks, Clippers, Celtics, Dallas, Denver) rely on highly skilled bigger wings, PF's or C's.

Toronto is an outlier relying on overall team strength/depth while Luka and Jokic are just outliers onto themselves.

The problem is these type of players are harder to identify and actually exist while the C Anthony's, K Lewis and T Maxey's exist every year.

I would rather take a chance on Wiseman, J McDaniels and possibly P Williams (he has grown on me) who may emerge as possible game changers. Michael Porter Jr. also falls into this category.
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I disagree about the impact of initiators due to USG. It's not directly linked to that. It's more due to the guard skill play in correlation with USG. This is part of why the value of bigmen has fallen so drastically. Lots of guys can rim run, board, swat to varying levels. They're a dime a dozen. Initiators that are 2 or 3 level scoreres? That's a guy with gravity that gets 20ppg. Can pass a little? Now it's open shots in the paint.

It's more like, the Lakers needed the triangle to make up for the lack of high rate playmaking from a point guard. Same with Chicago.

No one uses the triangle anymore because there's a wealth of talented 2 and 3 way PGs that can run PnR or even play some off ball.

The current dominant teams play big wings, as initiators. That's LeBron. That's Giannis. Kawhi developed it. Jayson Tatum in the crunch over Kemba. Luka. Jokic.

Toronto is an outlier relying on effort and execution to get the most juice out of that Orange.

I don't value MPJ. He's a 6'10" Lou Williams, and can't pass or defend. That's the kind of guy that takes the rhythm out of your team.

Jaden McDaniels is a poor decision maker.
Wiseman is a twitchy version of McGee for now. What outlier skills has he really shown?
Oddly enough, it's Patrick Williams that has actually shown playmaking from the high post and a pull up J. I just don't think much of him because he's also very weak laterally and just reminds me of post prime Ibaka, with a clue for passing.


Just to summarize my thoughts and pov.

When I look at prospects I always envision what can they become after 2-4 years in the league. Being as young as most of them are I try not to put too much emphasis on what they can and cannot do but instead what they can become.

Based on their level of athleticism, physical attributes, current skills and what they flash in games I form an opinion on their long term potential. I believe in the current NBA development and training programs that have shown players like BI and Oladipo make drastic improvements and become all-stars.

This is why I favor prospects like Wiseman, Williams and McDaniels where their current skill level, athleticism and physical attributes indicates to me they have potential to be perennial all-stars. I understand the odds of this happening are low but at the top of the draft I prefer to shoot high.

To address specifics you noted.
Wiseman has shown SF skills/movement in a 7'1" 240lb body.
McDaniel's decision making improved over the course of the shortened season and should continue with more NBA development.
Williams is so athletic and explosive that his lateral movement should improve with training.
For all of them skill level, court awareness, strength and athleticism will improve during their first 2-4 years.

As for the triangle I just brought that up as one of the reasons why the 3peat team did not need a play maker per se.

In lieu of having a true PG on a team a player or 2 will fill the void to some degree and I just prefer the model of the current dominant teams that rely on big skilled and in most cases athletic wings.
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 29, 2020 3:54 pm    Post subject:

Quote:

Wiseman has shown SF skills/movement in a 7'1" 240lb body.
McDaniel's decision making improved over the course of the shortened season and should continue with more NBA development.
Williams is so athletic and explosive that his lateral movement should improve with training.
For all of them skill level, court awareness, strength and athleticism will improve during their first 2-4 years.


Yeah, I just disagree with the assessment about Wiseman showing wing skills/movement. HS Tyson Chandler had wing movement, not the skills.

McDaniels, the decision making is almost outlier bad. If it was just "average", he'd be lottery. Frankly, I'm not sure how easy it is to fix something like that. Perhaps a change from a #1 guy to a #3 or #4 guy helps. Having a guy on a 1:2 A/TO ratio is really rough, especially for a wing.

As for Williams, he's just a run/jump athl similar to Wiseman. Laterally? It's rough.

But, the league isn't dominated by elite bigs really. At least, it's far less common with the Bulls, then the recent Warriors. Even the Cavs beat them without a dominant big. Look how scary the Mavs are offensively and they don't even have a dominant big. If they had a semblance of defense... then it's a different story.

Same goes for Portland.

Those rim running, defensive big archetypes are just so easily replaceable.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 2:58 pm    Post subject:

Immanuel Quickley instead of Tyrell Terry
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 2:59 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Immanuel Quickley instead of Tyrell Terry


I'm down.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 10:18 pm    Post subject:

I kind of like Kira Lewis. Seems his weaknesses are very fixable things. I'd really like it if the Lakers make it happen.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:08 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Immanuel Quickley instead of Tyrell Terry


I'm down.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:56 am    Post subject:

Mock draft (trying to predict what teams will do in the lottery):

1) MIN - Edwards (the Wolves defense will be scary bad, but Edwards deferring to DAR, Towns, and Beasley to start his career should be good for his development on offense.)

2) GSW - Ball (I can see this pick being traded, but LaMelo could thrive learning from Curry and Draymond and he's oddly a very Warriors-esque player underneath the warts.)

3) CHA - Wiseman (a "safe" pick for Mitch. I'm coming around on Wiseman as a bouncier, faster Myles Turner, but I'd prefer to see him go to a team with a more established scoring heirarchy.)

4) CHI - Hayes (new leadership for the Bulls goes with the conventionally "risky," but actually obvious choice. Hayes may not be good before LaVine gets traded, but I'd buy into Hayes being a better lead guard in time).

5) CLE - Toppin (Altman is a bad GM and he makes a bad pick here in anticipation of trading Love while trying to "win now" with one of the oldest players in the draft.)

6) ATL - Avdija (fine, whatever)

7) DET - Okongwu (the Pistons need everything, but they're going to be picking high in the draft for the next few years, so why not draft a likely long-term starting C and shoot for an initiator in 2021/22?)

8) NYK - Okoro (assuming the Knicks stand pat, Okoro is rumored to be popular with the Knicks new-ish front office and he's a very Thibs-ian player.)

9) WAS - Achiuwa (this doesn't make sense to me given the other players on the board and the Wizards needs, but I saw some rumors they're big on Precious, so why not? Bring on the Achiuwa - Hachimura tandem).

10) PHX - Haliburton (I could see him going higher than this while I have him outside of the lottery, but I think NBA front offices have to start coming around on his low ceiling eventually. This is a nice compromise fit for Tyrese where he can start as a backup, push in transition and defer in the half-court to Booker).

11) SAS - Vassell (smart value pick for the Spurs even though there's a lot of positional overlap with Murray and Johnson. But you can never have too many 2-way wings, right? I think the goal for the Spurs is to avoid over-drafting a "fit" pick like Jalen Smith.)

12) SAC - Nesmith (no new GM yet, but Hield seems on his way out the door and I can see Ranadive hyping himself up over "the next Klay." I don't think he's a lotto talent, but he'll shoot, won't be an embarrassment on defense, and he isn't 37 years old like Buddy. Whatever.)

13) NOP - Poku (Griffin seems like more of a swing for the fences type GM to me, so I'll predict him pulling the trigger on Poku in the lottery.)

14) BOS - P. Williams (cornering the market on every Williams, I've got Ainge going with PatWill's athletic profile and flashes of scoring potential and passing. A great pick for Ainge.)
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:05 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Immanuel Quickley instead of Tyrell Terry


I'm down.



I don't believe in TT.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 1:22 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mock draft (trying to predict what teams will do in the lottery):

1) MIN - Edwards (the Wolves defense will be scary bad, but Edwards deferring to DAR, Towns, and Beasley to start his career should be good for his development on offense.)

2) GSW - Ball (I can see this pick being traded, but LaMelo could thrive learning from Curry and Draymond and he's oddly a very Warriors-esque player underneath the warts.)

3) CHA - Wiseman (a "safe" pick for Mitch. I'm coming around on Wiseman as a bouncier, faster Myles Turner, but I'd prefer to see him go to a team with a more established scoring heirarchy.)

4) CHI - Hayes (new leadership for the Bulls goes with the conventionally "risky," but actually obvious choice. Hayes may not be good before LaVine gets traded, but I'd buy into Hayes being a better lead guard in time).

5) CLE - Toppin (Altman is a bad GM and he makes a bad pick here in anticipation of trading Love while trying to "win now" with one of the oldest players in the draft.)

6) ATL - Avdija (fine, whatever)

7) DET - Okongwu (the Pistons need everything, but they're going to be picking high in the draft for the next few years, so why not draft a likely long-term starting C and shoot for an initiator in 2021/22?)

8) NYK - Okoro (assuming the Knicks stand pat, Okoro is rumored to be popular with the Knicks new-ish front office and he's a very Thibs-ian player.)

9) WAS - Achiuwa (this doesn't make sense to me given the other players on the board and the Wizards needs, but I saw some rumors they're big on Precious, so why not? Bring on the Achiuwa - Hachimura tandem).

10) PHX - Haliburton (I could see him going higher than this while I have him outside of the lottery, but I think NBA front offices have to start coming around on his low ceiling eventually. This is a nice compromise fit for Tyrese where he can start as a backup, push in transition and defer in the half-court to Booker).

11) SAS - Vassell (smart value pick for the Spurs even though there's a lot of positional overlap with Murray and Johnson. But you can never have too many 2-way wings, right? I think the goal for the Spurs is to avoid over-drafting a "fit" pick like Jalen Smith.)

12) SAC - Nesmith (no new GM yet, but Hield seems on his way out the door and I can see Ranadive hyping himself up over "the next Klay." I don't think he's a lotto talent, but he'll shoot, won't be an embarrassment on defense, and he isn't 37 years old like Buddy. Whatever.)

13) NOP - Poku (Griffin seems like more of a swing for the fences type GM to me, so I'll predict him pulling the trigger on Poku in the lottery.)

14) BOS - P. Williams (cornering the market on every Williams, I've got Ainge going with PatWill's athletic profile and flashes of scoring potential and passing. A great pick for Ainge.)


Random thoughts:

GSW should target a trade for BI using the 2nd pick, Wiggins and a future 1st. BI should request a sign and trade out of NO to a major market with a title contending team and for the exposure to build his business brand.
If NO moves up to 2 they should target Wiseman. Wiseman + Zion would be a beast front court.

If Wiseman is gone then CHA should trade out with CHI and pick up an additional assest (Markkanen?). CHI should target Ball to excite their fan base and he fits a need.

If CHA moves down to 4 they should target Hayes and find a trade partner for Rozier.

CLE needs to move either Garland or Sexton. NYK would be a great landing spot for Sexton but I am not sure they have enough assets to acquire him.

If CLE stays at 5 and Hayes is gone then Toppin should be the pick. Again a name player who may not look to bolt from them in the future. With Drummond at C his interior defense/rebounding is not as glaring a weakness.

ATL is in no man's land. Already have a young core with both established and project players and don't need another youngin. If stays at 6 then Avdija is the smart play.

DET should also consider Haliburton. A PG who can shoot but is not shoot first can solve a lot of problems.

If NYK fails to acquire Sexton or a similar player they should target Cole Anthony. NYK needs a lead guard with iso skills and has some notoriety to his name. Plus if he hits they may have a borderline star.

WAS needs Okongwu but if gone they should target Vassell. They need the athleticism and defense these 2 provide.

Aaron Nesmith is one of the more stiffer athletes that is borderline lottery that I have seen in awhile. Purely one trick pony and should be considered from the 20-30 range.

That's it for now.
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:43 pm    Post subject:

How would you guys rank the playmaking guards available late first?
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:51 pm    Post subject:

LakersMD wrote:
How would you guys rank the playmaking guards available late first?


Theo Malodon
Nico Mannion
Malachi Flynn
Tre Jones
Cassius Winston
Devon Dotson (widest range, as high as lottery as low as mid 2nd)
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:13 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
LakersMD wrote:
How would you guys rank the playmaking guards available late first?


Theo Malodon
Nico Mannion
Malachi Flynn
Tre Jones
Cassius Winston
Devon Dotson (widest range, as high as lottery as low as mid 2nd)


Will Ramsey and Lewis be gone mid first?
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:03 pm    Post subject:

LakersMD wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
LakersMD wrote:
How would you guys rank the playmaking guards available late first?


Theo Malodon
Nico Mannion
Malachi Flynn
Tre Jones
Cassius Winston
Devon Dotson (widest range, as high as lottery as low as mid 2nd)


Will Ramsey and Lewis be gone mid first?


I expect Lewis in lottery and I wouldn't touch Ramsey until mid 2nd or later.
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 10:05 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
LakersMD wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
LakersMD wrote:
How would you guys rank the playmaking guards available late first?


Theo Malodon
Nico Mannion
Malachi Flynn
Tre Jones
Cassius Winston
Devon Dotson (widest range, as high as lottery as low as mid 2nd)


Will Ramsey and Lewis be gone mid first?


I expect Lewis in lottery and I wouldn't touch Ramsey until mid 2nd or later.


Ok makes sense. Ramsey’s lack of defensive awareness and passing feel is pretty worrisome.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 08, 2020 12:57 pm    Post subject:

LakersMD wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
LakersMD wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
LakersMD wrote:
How would you guys rank the playmaking guards available late first?


Theo Malodon
Nico Mannion
Malachi Flynn
Tre Jones
Cassius Winston
Devon Dotson (widest range, as high as lottery as low as mid 2nd)


Will Ramsey and Lewis be gone mid first?


I expect Lewis in lottery and I wouldn't touch Ramsey until mid 2nd or later.


Ok makes sense. Ramsey’s lack of defensive awareness and passing feel is pretty worrisome.


Ramsey from HS level to NCAA is a different player altogether. Tough to see who the actual guy is.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:30 am    Post subject:

We need a shooter: I'm looking at Riller and Bane. I like Winston as well
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:34 am    Post subject:

lukewaltonsdad wrote:
We need a shooter: I'm looking at Riller and Bane. I like Winston as well


Only if they're the BPAs.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:46 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
lukewaltonsdad wrote:
We need a shooter: I'm looking at Riller and Bane. I like Winston as well


Only if they're the BPAs.


Yeah, I agree. I'm all for picking BPA instead of positional need.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:00 pm    Post subject:

lukewaltonsdad wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
lukewaltonsdad wrote:
We need a shooter: I'm looking at Riller and Bane. I like Winston as well


Only if they're the BPAs.


Yeah, I agree. I'm all for picking BPA instead of positional need.


fwiw, I expect Bane and Riller to go before the LAL pick. Otherwise, yes, Riller or Bane would be great.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:04 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
lukewaltonsdad wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
lukewaltonsdad wrote:
We need a shooter: I'm looking at Riller and Bane. I like Winston as well


Only if they're the BPAs.


Yeah, I agree. I'm all for picking BPA instead of positional need.


fwiw, I expect Bane and Riller to go before the LAL pick. Otherwise, yes, Riller or Bane would be great.


Crossing fingers...lol
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:29 am    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Random thoughts:

GSW should target a trade for BI using the 2nd pick, Wiggins and a future 1st. BI should request a sign and trade out of NO to a major market with a title contending team and for the exposure to build his business brand.

As an RFA BI has almost no leverage. I can't see him doing that either, not with only one good season and that coming in New Orleans.

PlantedTanks wrote:
If NO moves up to 2 they should target Wiseman. Wiseman + Zion would be a beast front court.

I disagree; not worth the cost. I think Jaxson Hayes will be the more versatile defender with an outside chance at being the better offensive player and he's already on their roster. Besides, Zion will ultimately need to defend and play minutes at C, so why spend serious draft resources on a guy who should be sitting during fourth Qs while Williamson is in the middle of the Pelucans closing lineups?

PlantedTanks wrote:
If Wiseman is gone then CHA should trade out with CHI and pick up an additional assest (Markkanen?). CHI should target Ball to excite their fan base and he fits a need.

If CHA moves down to 4 they should target Hayes and find a trade partner for Rozier.

I can see Chicago doing that, but the Bulls would be just fine staying at #4 and drafting Hayes themselves.

PlantedTanks wrote:
CLE needs to move either Garland or Sexton. NYK would be a great landing spot for Sexton but I am not sure they have enough assets to acquire him.

If CLE stays at 5 and Hayes is gone then Toppin should be the pick. Again a name player who may not look to bolt from them in the future. With Drummond at C his interior defense/rebounding is not as glaring a weakness.

I agree Cleveland needs to move on from one of their PGs and Sexton would be the guy I move. I'd dangle him to Detroit or the Knicks for a 2021 1st, but I'd settle for for their 2020 1sts. I'd feel a lot better drafting Toppin if I had another crack at a younger top ten prospect in this draft to go with him.

Drummond shouldn't be in CLE's long-term plans, imo. He'll opt in given the market, but I would try to dump him for a bad conteact that runs through 2022 and pick up future draft capital. I don't think they have any building blocks of note outside of maybe KPJ and Garland, so they desperately need to target BPA and I'm skeptical Toppin would ever be that guy.

Anyway, I would trade Sexton to the Knicks for the #8 pick and try to target Hayes and Okongwu. I think both guys are long-term starters and potential stars, if not superstars. Hope for Cade Cunningham in 2021, use Garland as a bench scorer and hope KPJ develops into a good starting caliber SG.

PlantedTanks wrote:
ATL is in no man's land. Already have a young core with both established and project players and don't need another youngin. If stays at 6 then Avdija is the smart play.

This is the perfect opportunity for Atlanta to take a big swing, which means...Poku! I don't buy Collins, Reddish, or Huerter as second stars next to Young, so they really need to focus on either drafting or trading for Trae's running mate. And if Poku busts, so what? They lose out on another solid combo-forward in Avdija...? No biggie.

PlantedTanks wrote:
DET should also consider Haliburton. A PG who can shoot but is not shoot first can solve a lot of problems.

Haliburton is an odd fit and a luxury given that he's more SG than PG in the half-court. He's an even more extreme version of Lonzo and would be best served going to a team with a bigger initiator like the Mavs where his deficiencies as a slasher and pull-up jump shooter can be hidden. Putting him on a team like Detroit to be a conventional PG is setting him up for failure. If the Pistons do go PG, it should be Hayes and then Kira Lewis.

PlantedTanks wrote:
If NYK fails to acquire Sexton or a similar player they should target Cole Anthony. NYK needs a lead guard with iso skills and has some notoriety to his name. Plus if he hits they may have a borderline star.

I think Anthony could slip out of the lottery. He's being mocked in the late teens these days. If the Knicks go PG, Hays and Lewis should be their guys ahead of Anthony, and even a safe pick like Vassell might be better long-term since they're going to be back in the lottery again next season with a chance to choose a better lead guard than Cole. If I squint, I can maybe see Anthony's star upside, but I think his ceiling is good starter playing more of a SG role next to Luka Doncic.

PlantedTanks wrote:
WAS needs Okongwu but if gone they should target Vassell. They need the athleticism and defense these 2 provide.

Agreed. I'd throw in Okoro or Patrick Williams, too.

PlantedTanks wrote:
Aaron Nesmith is one of the more stiffer athletes that is borderline lottery that I have seen in awhile. Purely one trick pony and should be considered from the 20-30 range

Agreed.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:45 pm    Post subject:

Watching Harden become invisible off ball in this series is making me warm up to Ball over Hayes.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:19 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Watching Harden become invisible off ball in this series is making me warm up to Ball over Hayes.


From what I remember, you're active on twitter. I don't know if you follow PD Web. If you don't, do, and I think you'll love the Patreon content he does (really nice guy in twitter fwiw) but he'll make his articles free to read sometimes too.

I still have Hayes #1. I don't think Ball or Hayes should ever be part of heliocentric offenses, especially as #1 guys. But there's a lot of what I feel Ball has had instinctually since he was 15, vs Hayes learning skill by skill as he grew into a better lead initiator. I'm legitimately banking on his ability to learn and "leap" at a more rapid rate than most other prospects.
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