Do Number Of Steals Indicate A Good Prospect?

 
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kaoss128
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 02, 2014 8:27 am    Post subject: Do Number Of Steals Indicate A Good Prospect?

Interesting blurb from an ESPN Insider Article discussing if Julius Randle is overrated.

Quote:

Kevin Pelton: For Julius Randle, one stat stands out above all others: steals. In 525 minutes this season, the Kentucky freshman has recorded just five steals. Five! And four of those have come in the past two weeks. It's difficult to understand how a player as talented as Randle could possibly not have more steals; it seems like he'd come up with a handful simply by accident.


This might not seem like a big deal. After all, how important are steals for a power forward? Historically, however, steal rate has outsized importance in predicting how well prospects will translate to the NBA. Consider this: When steal rate is adjusted by position average, the top 25 prospects in my NCAA database have on average outproduced their position in the draft by 1.1 WARP. This group includes draft-day steals like DeJuan Blair, Kenneth Faried, Danny Granger, Paul Millsap and Jameer Nelson.

By contrast, the 25 worst players in position-adjusted steal rate have on average produced 0.5 WARP fewer than expected based on their draft position. The lottery picks among this group (Joe Alexander, Ed Davis, Ike Diogu, Brandon Knight, Alex Len, Shabazz Muhammad and Hasheem Thabeet) have generally been disappointments.


Link

Thoughts? Are steals something to pay attention to?
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Romano338
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 02, 2014 9:24 am    Post subject:

Good to have it but not having it doesn't mean you're bad.

Hell, some players don't have defense and they are still considered top players. So just steals?!
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Mike@LG
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 02, 2014 10:05 am    Post subject:

No.

Steals are indication of several attributes.

Basketball IQ
Lateral movement
Hands
Wingspan by height
Activity/Motor

You can argue that the guys listed with low steal rates all have low IQ.
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postandpivot
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 03, 2014 11:58 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
No.

Steals are indication of several attributes.

Basketball IQ
Lateral movement
Hands
Wingspan by height
Activity/Motor

You can argue that the guys listed with low steal rates all have low IQ.
bad argument. low steal numbers can also mean you are more of a "make him miss" then gamble guy. some guys gamble. some guys dont. some guys know when and when not to. these are the smartest of the bunch.

some guys wont steal the ball because they wont jump the passing lanes. they stay stuck to their man. but this causes their man to have a much harder time scoring then vs a defender who gambles a lot for steals.

now. if you see a guy picking people's pockets. not some passing lane only guy. then its something you should really look into. on the other hand. if you see a guy with a nice wingspan/athleticism and you see him with his head on a swivel (ball, you , man) defense. and he jumps passes a lot but doesnt do it to the point where it creates a problem for his team's defensive schemes. then you have yourself a nice passing lane defender.

a guy only playing the lanes for steals. will also end up only shining vs dumb teams in the nba and in college. the moment this guy runs into a savvy team that values the ball. his kind of defense will not be effective. and actually it will become a detriment to his teams defense overall.(dont get back doored)
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